Wednesday
Jun162010
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader and the Attacks on the Clerics (Verde)
Wednesday, June 16, 2010 at 5:30 
Mr Verde writes for EA:Two events and a possible connection....
On 4 June, hecklers forced Seyed Hassan Khomeini to abandon his speech at his grandfather’s memorial service.
This week the homes and offices two Grand Ayatollahs, Sane'i and the late Montazeri, were surrounded by a crowd who chanted rude insults against Hassan Khomeini and his family and attacked the buildings for several hours. Heavy damage was caused and the gravestone of Montazeri was removed.
These events took place inside Khomeini’s mausoleum, in the presence of Ayatollah Khamenei, and in Qom, the spiritual capital of the Islamic Republic.
Now the connection. Given that the Islamic Republic will stop at nothing when trying to prevent a display of opposition, no matter what the occasion. So were these two events not just tolerated but organised by the regime? One rumour, accepted by Ahmad Montazeri, son of the late Grand Ayatollah, is that the Supreme Leader secretly visited Qom in the late hours of the night before the latest attacks.
For many months now Khamenei has been criticising regime insiders as “khavas-e bibasirat”, imperceptive confidants. He has not only been intolerant of dissent, but has also demanded their vocal approval of his decisions and actions. So, to speculate, the 4 June humiliation of Khomeini was a warning to all religious figures that Khamenei will stop at nothing when it comes to confronting them. "Look at what I do to Khomeini’s beloved grandson; imagine what I’ll do to you."
If so, the step seems not only to only failed but also to have provided the “imperceptive confidants” the opportunity to demonstrate their imperceptions. Almost all religious figures --- reformist, conservative, non-political --- expressed their outrage over the treatement of Seyed Hassan Khomeini; many took the opportunity to praise Khomeini’s personal and/or religious credentials. With the exception of Rafsanjani who said that Khamenei was upset about the heckling, no one bothered to mention the Supreme Leader.
The only major religious personalities who have not yet condemned the 4 June events are Khamenei (who in a speech to MPs a couple of days later seems to have approved of the humiliation of Khomeini), Nouri-Hamedani (who repeats the government line) and Mesbah-Yazdi (who at times advocates what appears to be a Shia version of Taliban). Even Agha Tehrani, the radical Tehran MP who is a student of Mesbah Yazdi and is very close to Ahmadinejad, is reported to have visited Hassan Khomeini to express his sadness at the events.
But then, a visit by Mehdi Karroubi to Qom is used as an excuse to attack the homes and offices of two of the highest-ranking clerics in Iran. This could be part of the original plan, or it could be a response to the clerics' support of Khomeini: shut up or risk being attacked.
[To understand the magnitude of the attacks, imagine if the US troops in Iraq were to attack the home and office of Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf and hurl insults at him and his family. All hell would break loose.)
Photos of the aftermath of the attacks showed that photographs of Khoemini and copies of the Quran were thrown on the floor by the attackers. Remember how forcefully the regime condemned the supposed disrespect to Khomeini’s photos back in December? None of that now.
Whatever the intention behind the attacks, one thing is clear: Khamenei has given up on trying to gain the respect and support of the clergy. Just as with the general population over the past year, he has decided that the only way to confront the clerics is by force.
But if the Supreme Leader has escalated the confrontation, these events are opening up an opportunity for the reformists to attack the regime further. Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement on Sunday compared the attacks to the actions of the Shah’s regime in the 1960s.
Last year the regime ran a questionable election, then --- instead of responding to public queries --- it killed, arrested, tortured, and raped peaceful demonstrations and jailed officials of the Khatami period. This year the regime is humiliating Khomeini’s family and attacking the homes of grand ayatollahs.
In June 2009 the Islamic Republic washed its hands of its republicanism, and in June 2010 it is throwing away any pretence at being Islamic. The Supreme Leader is prepared to go it alone, with a few lower-ranking seminary students used as regime thugs and a few politicians paying him lip service.
All this occurs alongside a political front with non-policies, confusion and sudden u-turns. A few examples:
- In his recent TV interview Ahamdinejad claimed that crackdowns on people’s clothing have nothing to do with his Government. This has led to many on the conservative side to criticise him and one cleric to claim that Ahamadinejad says one thing in public and does something else privately. Meanwhile, the former Culture Minister says that plans to crack down on women’s hejab were put into action by the Ahmadinejad government a few years ago.
- Regime officials travel the world doing all they can to prevent another Security Council resolution against Iran's nuclear programme, but when that resolution is passed, Ahmadinejad dismisses it as a used handkerchief that should be discarded.
- Regime officials threaten that, in response to the resolution, the Islamic Republic will leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and downgrade ties with China and Russia. But not long after this, it is announced that the regime is not considering a departure from the treaty, and Foreign Minister Mottaki tells the Parliament that Russia and China’s positive votes for further sanctions wer out of compassion for Iran.
- One military commander says that Iran will escort ships to Gaza. This is denied by another military commander a few days later
- Then 70 members of Parliament sign up to go to Gaza.
After one year of unprecedented repression and brutality, the regime has not been able to crush protests: every time there is a significant occasion, Tehran and other cities are turned into military camps to prevent protests. There is no cohesion in government policy. On the international front: Lebanon, home to the regime’s beloved Hezbollah, does not offer direct support to the Islamic Republic in the UN vote, choosing instead to abstain, and Bosnia, a country which the Islamic Republic was so vocal in supporting in the 1990s, votes Yes.
And now Khamenei is further alienating the religious establishment.
Next?
Reader Comments (13)
[...] Der Oberste Führer und die Angriffe auf die Geistlichen (Analyse Mr Verde, empfehlenswert) [...]
[...] Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader and the Attacks on the Clerics … [...]
Mr Verde,
Excellent as usual, dast marizad :-)
Next? Islamic Republic oldie ;-)
Arshama
Ayatollah Fazel Lankarani has joined the chorus of outrage: only the ennemies of the Imam (Khomeini) will rejoice in the 4 June events http://www.kaleme.com/1389/03/26/klm-22981" rel="nofollow">http://www.kaleme.com/1389/03/26/klm-22981
Allow me to repeat here what I posted in a 14 June thread:
http://enduringamerica.com/2010/06/15/iran-analysis-missing-the-story-on-25-khordaad/#comment-57025503" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/06/15/iran-anal...
"The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School by issuing a statement strongly condemned the attacks on the houses an...d offices of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and Grand Ayatollah Saanei. In part of this statement it is stressed that how can a government that calls itself Islamic and follower of the teachings of Prophet Mohammad give absolute and unconditional freedom only to those who praise them but the caring critics face prison, beatings and insults? The statement also points to the insult on Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of late Ayatollah Khomeini the founder of Islamic Republic, by a group of organized pro-government thugs in the memorial ceremony of the anniversary of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini and adds that if that shameful incident was dealt with appropriately and those who insulted the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic were confronted and stopped these insults and ugly events would not happen again in the holy city of Qom and against Marjas, highest ranking religious figures."
From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi http://www.facebook.com/mousavi" rel="nofollow">http://www.facebook.com/mousavi
RE - "Regime officials threaten that, in response to the resolution, the Islamic Republic will leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty and downgrade ties with China and Russia. But not long after this, it is announced that the regime is not considering a departure from the treaty, and Foreign Minister Mottaki tells the Parliament that Russia and China’s positive votes for further sanctions wer out of compassion for Iran."
And NOW, Ahmadinejad says his country is willing to resume talks with Western nations about its nuclear program if certain conditions are met. :-)
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Ahmadinejad-Iran-Willing-to-Talk-if-Conditions-Are-Met-96457909.html" rel="nofollow">http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/middle-eas...
Iran's Revolutionaries Are Winning
Reza Alsan
The Iranian regime bases its legitimacy on two fundamental pillars. The first is its self-ascribed role as the locus of Islamic morality. This has long been a persuasive argument for its supreme authority, particularly among the “pious masses,” the large, mostly rural, working-class Iranians who look to the state to provide moral guidance. It is this pillar that has been most severely damaged as a result of the post-election demonstrations.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-09/iran-sanctions-are-useless-the-green-movement-is-going-strong-/" rel="nofollow">http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/...
In a letter to Hassan Khomeini Mohsen Kadivar has declared the theory of "velayate faghih" as invalid and asked him to clarify his position in this respect. "I hope you find out in your studies that there are no textual and logical grounds for a faghih ruling the people, and people have to rule themselves." A referendum will determine the political future of Iran: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0%2C%2C5690908%2C00.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5690908,00...
The hidden battle between Sepah and Clergy
Sociologist Majid Mohammadi offers an intriguing analysis of the IRGC's struggle for power, much facilitated by the GM protests, making the rulers even more dependant on the paramilitary forces. He describes the ongoing in-fighting between the SL, AN and Bassijis, IRGC and Guardian Council, and attributes the 4 June incident to AN and his Bassiji thugs as a response to Jannati's critique. The winners of this battle will try to control the SL or keep their power for his successor, who will be clad as a religious. http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f4_Revolutionary_guards_clerics_struggles_Iran/2073156.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.radiofarda.com/content/f4_Revolution...
Arshama
"as a response to Jannati's critique "
Could you explain this bit more please
Thankyou
Barry
Thanks Arshama - now I recall Jannatis comments. AN does seem to like to antagonize deliberately - his own and outsiders. Reminds me of a small obnoxious child - who annoys everybody because he knows he has a brutal big brother (Basijis) to come to his aid -- until the day he gets caught without his big brother being around.
Barry
RE - In his recent TV interview Ahamdinejad claimed that crackdowns on people’s clothing have nothing to do with his Government. This has led to many on the conservative side to criticise him and one cleric to claim that Ahamadinejad says one thing in public and does something else privately. Meanwhile, the former Culture Minister says that plans to crack down on women’s hejab were put into action by the Ahmadinejad government a few years ago.
NOT TRUE! In private the President even avoids having to view the reflections of female faces in the front seat mirror of his car. It's obvious that someone else put him up to saying that he opposes the recent dress crackdown. Can anyone guess who? Why that weasely, evil-looking version of Mr Bean - chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei of course! And who says so? None other than professional pain in the ass Ali Motahari.
http://www.rferl.org/content/Ahmadinejad_The_Hijab_And_Women_In_His_Car/2073879.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/content/Ahmadinejad_The_Hi...