Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov)

Eldar Mamedov, an international-relations analyst based in Brussels, writes for European Voice:

If the past is any guide, the UN Security Council's decision to impose new sanctions on Iran is unlikely to radically alter Iran's behaviour and its pursuit of its nuclear programme. Instead, the EU and US should shift their Iran policy toward increasing the prospects for political change in the country.

The emergence of the Green Movement a year ago as a broad-based opposition to what was perceived as an electoral coup in favour of the hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, provides an opportunity for such a change.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Threats & Apologies

The movement, informally led by former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, has proved itself to be resilient in the face of the ferocious repression by the regime during the last year. For example, to the shock of the establishment, Mousavi strongly and publicly condemned the execution in May of five Kurdish dissidents. This shows that he is reaching out to the broadest possible segments of the Iranian society, including the aggrieved ethnic minorities and populations outside the big cities of Teheran, Isfahan and Tabriz.

A few weeks ago, Mousavi blasted Ahmadinejad's erratic economic policies. These policies have led to an unemployment rate of 50% among the educated youth and inflation of over 20%. Both Mousavi and Karroubi called for demonstrations to mark the anniversary of the presidential elections on 12 June.

Even if the regime finally succeeds in crushing the Green Movement, the opposition in Iran will not disappear. Iran's young, well-educated and well-connected society has seen its desire for political and social freedoms and economic prosperity stifled for far too long. The government's fresh offensive to re-impose ultra-conservative social mores, including the restrictive dress code for women, and a massive purge from the universities of professors deemed too "liberal" or "secular", are further alienating the youth. There are deepening cracks within the system itself, with a growing number of conservatives realising that it is untenable in its current shape. Remarkably, the opposition to the regime also has religious legitimisation, since one of its fiercest critics was the late and very popular Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri.

All this makes the option of supporting the Iranian opposition not only morally right, but also politically feasible. The EU can do it in several ways.

First and foremost, it should put human rights at the core of its strategy towards Iran. Individuals and organisations implicated in human rights violations should be subjected to the EU travel ban and freezing of assets. Non-governmental organisations such as Iran Human Rights Documentation Centre have compiled a list of officials directly involved in murders, torture and rape of the protesters. Contrary to widespread belief, the regime does care about such revelations, since some of the accused, particularly members of the Revolutionary Guard, have business interests in Europe and travel to Europe for, for instance, medical treatment. The revelations of the atrocities also fly in the face of the Islamic Republic‘s attempts to promote itself internationally as a unique example of a ‘modern religious democracy'. Sanctions against the perpetrators would send a clear message that there is a cost attached to the repression. It may save lives.

The EU should increase its efforts to protect Iranian dissidents, by, for instance, granting asylum in Europe. Thousands of them are currently waiting in Turkey for their applications to the EU countries to be processed. Meanwhile, they are being harassed and intimidated by Iranian agents. The EU must put pressure on Turkey to rein in the Iranian agents and more EU countries should follow the example of Germany, which already offered asylum to some of the dissidents. This will help the Green movement find a foothold abroad and establish a connection between its leadership and the EU governments.

Second, the EU must do its utmost to facilitate the opposition's access to the internet and other electronic communications in the face of government interference. It should protest loudly any jamming of broadcasts from Europe, such as Iran's attempts to block the BBC's Persian TV, and it should find ways to retaliate. The export of surveillance technology by European companies to Iran, whose government could use it to violate freedom of expression, should be stopped.

Third, the EU can help the disparate groups that have coalesced into the Green movement to resolve their ideological differences and decide what comes next. The religious democrats, including Moussavi and Karroubi, want to work within the system and reform existing laws. By contrast, liberals and social democrats insist that the current constitution and political structure are unreformable and should be replaced by a secular republic. The EU can provide a platform for debate among these groups to work out a common strategy and evolve into an alternative political force capable of ruling Iran. Foundations under European political parties can be instrumental in this effort.

While the nuclear issue will remain on the agenda for the foreseeable future, the EU should see the big picture. For the first time in three decades there is an opportunity for popular-led political change in Iran. It will take time, but it is an opportunity not to be missed.

Iran's Green Communications: Beyond Twitter to "Small Media" (Enayat)

Regular readers know how disconcerted I have been by shallow commentary dismissing the role of new communications --- often framed superficially as a dismissal of "Twitter Revolution" --- in information and dialogue during Iran's post-election conflict.

So it is refreshing to see an analysis which tries to get beyond the simplicities to assess not only what has happened but what might happen with this information, dialogue, and activism, despite the increasing efforts of the Iranian regime to shut down communication. I would take up some of the points put forward in this article --- I think it underestimates what channels have been opened and what links have been maintained through "not-so-small media" and networks via and beyond the Internet --- but I think it opens up a productive discussion.

Mahmood Enayat writes for Index on Censorship:

The 12th of June was the anniversary of the disputed Iranian presidential election. The ensuing events of last summer challenged assumptions about the political impact of the media, especially the internet, on Iranian society.

Prior to the protests a lot was said about the importance of the internet as a “free space”, where opposition discourse was thriving, especially in the context of its limited manifestation in the offline world. The Persian blogosphere was hailed as one of the most vibrant non-English speaking communities where youth, women, homosexuals, and religious and ethnic minorities were expressing and to some extent mobilising themselves. Occasionally, the internet also played a “fourth estate” role — that is, the ability to create an independent institution making the authorities accountable for their actions. There were a number of secretly recorded amateur videos documenting the wrongdoing of some Iranian officials — the subsequent wide coverage of those videos made it very hard for the Iranian officials to deny the incidents.

These two political functions of the internet — a “free space” and a “fourth estate”, also played important roles in the aftermath of the election. The internet became the backbone of the green movement, as severe restrictions were imposed on the movement’s offline activities. Citizens used their mobile phones and became the eyes and ears of the international media whose correspondents had been expelled from Iran. The videos documented the participation of Iranians in street protests and the brutality of force used against them by the authorities, resulting in the widespread practice of adding the postfix “revolution” to social media platforms like Twitter and YouTube.

However, the Green Movement was not simply allowed to use the internet for its own end. The Iranian authorities tried to stop the “Twitter revolution” by waging an active war against internet freedom. The authorities went beyond simple internet content filtering by tampering with internet connections and mobile phone services, by jamming satellite broadcasting, and by hacking and attacking opposition websites. They also monitored online dissenters and used the information obtained to intimidate and arrest them. They threatened service providers in Iran to remove ‘offensive’ posts or blogs and more significantly, they tried to fill the information void created by these measures with misinformation.

There has been a sense of disappointment amongst the supporters of the Twitter revolution. We should try to make sense of its shortcomings.

Social and conventional media need each other

It became clear that social media (staffed by citizen journalists) and conventional media needed each other to function. Given the government’s severe restrictions on access to the internet and its infiltration of the social media’s platforms with fake content, its audience was limited. Citizen journalists relied on conventional media to take the best of their content and reach a larger audience, while the latter needed the former to continue their news cycles in the absence of correspondents on the ground.

Twitter and Facebook: Bridging rather than mobilising

Facebook and Twitter were more influential in mobilising diaspora Iranians showing solidarity rather than mobilising street protests inside Iran. Owing to their knowledge of context and language, diaspora Iranians were also able to connect the outside (mainly the media) to the inside. Both the platforms were filtered before the election and remained inaccessible in Iran during the protests.

Do not underestimate the basics

In the days after the disputed election, the Iranian authorities shut down many of the news websites set up by supporters of [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi and other opposition groups by arresting the technical teams involved in their maintenance, initiating intense Denial of Service (DOS) attacks and hacking. The opposition clearly took having access to secure hosting and capable technical support for granted and did not expect these incidents to occur. Its lack of preparation meant that many of them struggled to get back online and to remain online in the following months.

Knowing how to operate safely online is important

There have also been a number of reports that activists were presented with copies of emails exchanged with other activists during their interrogation and were arrested for their online activities. Many of them were also asked to provide the credentials of their Facebook accounts and were questioned extensively on their relationships with friends on their list. The Iranian authorities used this fear for further power projection by claiming that the Iranian Police has access to all the emails and SMS messages exchanged in Iran and can monitor them. All of these tactics have created fear and self-censorship among the ordinary internet users and activists in Iran, a fear that is perpetuated by a lack of knowledge of the very basics of information security.

There will be more limitations on the internet

The Iranian authorities used to consider the development of the internet in Iran as an enabler for economic development. During the Rafsanjani and Khatami presidencies, the government invested heavily in expanding the internet infrastructure, resulting in a high growth rate of internet users. However, this has now changed and Ahmadinejad’s government has allocated $500 million in this year’s annual budget (2010-11) to “counter the soft war”. This effectively means imposing more restrictions on opposition movement’s use of the internet. The fifth economic plan devised by his government does not have any indicators for increasing the internet penetration rate in Iran, contrary to the past two economic development plans. This indicates that the Iranian government is not interested in increasing the number of internet users in Iran, at least not for the next five years.

The internet's reach is limited

Internet users in Iran are predominantly middle and upper middle class and internet access remains limited among the less affluent sections of Iranian society. Mousavi has stated numerous times that the Green Movement should try to reach out to the working class and bring it on board.

But the internet is the only available media option

The internet is the only media space that is available to the Green Movement as other forms of media are heavily controlled by the government and it is not possible to launch a newspaper, radio or TV station inside Iran. Satellite broadcasting of political TV stations based outside Iran will be subjected to heavy jamming. The short wave radio broadcasted from outside is also losing its audience significantly, as highlighted in a recent audience survey by the BBC World Service.

The Green Movement should think “small media”

The Green Movement and its supporters inside and outside Iran need to go beyond the common perception and prescribed use of the internet (like YouTube, Twitter and Facebook) and come up with new and innovative solutions. Mousavi himself has encouraged the Green Movement to embrace “small media”, which relies on offline social networks for further distribution of information. He is reminding the Green Movement of the lessons learned from the 1979 and Constitutional Revolutions, as both used small media to mobilise support and achieve their aims.  Small media has four main characteristics:

- It is distributed and is therefore not prone to blockage
- It produces sharable information products
- It relies on highly resourced and networked individuals to reproduce sharable information products
- It uses the social networks of highly resourced individuals to distributed sharable products to less resourceful individuals

Leaflets and cassette tapes were widely used in 1979 revolutions. These days the digital equivalents of them will be CDs, DVDs, memory sticks, email, Bluetooth on mobile phones, peer to peer file sharing etc. The green movement only has the internet but it has to change its approach towards it by going beyond its widely prescribed uses. It is time to replace the Twitter revolution with small media discourse.

Iran Document: Karroubi "Greens Stronger & More Mature Than Last Year" (12 June)

Mehdi Karroubi, continuing his public-relations campaign with foreign media, conducted an e-mail interview with CNN, mainly on the current position of the Green Movement.



Significantly, it is unclear whether the cleric gave his answers before or after the developments of yesterday: CNN vaguely says, "Karrubi responded to CNN's questions on the first anniversary of the disputed vote."

CNN: How is Iran different today as compared to before last year's elections?

Mehdi Karrubi: Last year the elections started with excitement and joy, and most people came forward because they wanted change. We saw the political maturity of different levels of society and people supported their candidates faithfully. But after unprecedented fraud in the elections, we witnessed the peaceful protest of the people who wanted to take back their vote. Unfortunately the government's blatant and merciless crackdown cost the people a lot.

Today many in Iran have lost their loved ones just because they questioned the result of the vote. Many others were injured and many political activists and the children of this country filled the prisons. Security forces have trampled on constitutional laws, criminal laws and civil laws.

CNN: Is the situation in Iran better today than it was last year?

Karrubi: This can seen be seen from two viewpoints. From the way things appear, things have not improved because the political situation, the economy and international relations have been damaged. Iranians have paid a heavy price. But if we take a deeper look at the situation, the Iranian society has made strides in the path of knowing their rights, and this is a great achievement.

CNN: Many people were killed and arrested during the protests. Was the movement worth it?

Karrubi: It's a difficult situation but I have to say there is a heavy cost if you want to reform a system that's approaching corruption, ignoring the goals of the revolution, constitutional rights and the blood of our martyrs. From this viewpoint, despite the bitterness, this cost is understandable. History shows that obtaining freedom and rights is never without a cost, even with movements that are completely peaceful.

CNN: Why have the street protests stopped?

Karrubi: People have stopped taking part in demonstrations because of the brutal repression in the streets, the huge number of unjust arrests and inhumane behavior in prisons, and the creation [of] a police state, but this does not mean we will forget about our demands.

CNN: Is the Green Movement stronger than it was one year ago or weaker?

Karrubi: The Green Movement today is stronger and more mature than last year. Despite a heavy climate of repression, this movement has been able to unite and spread to different layers of society. Incidentally, the (Iranian) leadership understands this important development very well. The fact that funeral processions take place with the presence of anti-riot police and the fact that they never grant permission for any gatherings, even to honor Imam Khomeini, shows the strength of this movement and their fear of this movement.

CNN: What does the Green Movement want today? What is its goal?

Karrubi: This movement wants the execution of all the principles of the constitution, especially those related to the rights of the Iranian people. This movement wants Iran to grow under the reform movement and for the law to become reality for everyone. It wants fundamental civil rights for everyone. These are the goals of this movement.

CNN: How does the Green Movement hope to achieve its goal?

Karrubi: From reform and the return to the original path of the revolution and constitutional rights. Don't forget Iran's Green Movement is only after achieving its goals by raising awareness about people's rights through a peaceful and least costly path.

CNN: Do you consider Mr. Ahmadinejad your president?

Karrubi: No. Like I've repeatedly said, I consider him the head of the current government.

CNN: Do you fear for your safety?

Karrubi: There are many concerns but I'm not afraid. During the past year my family and I have endured a lot of pressure. From a bullet shot at my car in Ghazvin to an attack on my home. My biggest concern is the violent crackdown against people, especially the young men and women in the streets and prisons. I know that there's been a departure from the path of law and the path of the Imam, and I know change will not come easy. I see the defense of people's rights as my duty and I'm willing to do it at any cost.

CNN: What gives you hope that the Green Movement will succeed?

Karrubi: The strength of this movement is the participation of diverse layers of society. The key to the success of this movement is the awareness of the people, especially the youth and the women who are in the forefront of this movement, and the determination of people to go after their rights. The true leaders of this movement are the people, not us. There are hard days ahead but the path is clear and the future belongs to the people.

Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad --- What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)

The people of Iran today yet again proved that intimidation, imprisonment, torture, rapes, shootings and deaths were not going to deter them from continuing to oppose the Islamic Republic’s brutality and unjust policies. In that sense, it was a clear victory for the Green Movement. They managed to land people on the streets on the day that they wanted and the government –-- even though it employed thousands of security forces –-- was unable to stop them. This is despite the fact that opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had cancelled the plans for the protest.

The reason for the success? It is likely that the protesters caught the government off-guard and showed incredible resillience. Instead of publicizing their intentions of protesting or declaring their routes of procession beforehand, they quietly let the government feel like they were not going to show up. Then they did.

Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

Through my sources, I can fully confirm protests in the city of Tehran. I have partial confirmation of protests in Shiraz, Mashaad, Isfahan, and Zahedan. Reports of protests have come in for Tabriz, Sari, Kerman, Sanandaj, Ahvaz and Aryashahr, but I have not been able to confirm any of them yet.



What is clear is that in Tehran people took to streets after 4 p.m. for protests in different parts of the city. The students of Tehran University staged a gathering with anti-government chants and the popular slogan, “The student dies but does not accept humiliation!”

Security forces clashed with the protesters and arrested at least six students. Tear gas was fired at protesters. There were also unconfirmed reports of shots, though no claims of injuries from gunfire. Students were injured, though, when they were beaten with batons, kicked, and punched by riot police and plainclothesmen who had surrounded the campus.

A second group of protesters tried to converge from different parts of Tehran upon the university to try and break the siege, but security forces managed to hold them back by blocking major streets with thousands of policemen, riot police, and plainclothesmen.

Other groups formed at Vali-e Asr Square where at least three were arrested and several were injured in clashes with security forces. Tear gas was used, as well as at Vanak Square where more protesters gathered and chanted “Death to the Dictator” and “Death to Khamenei”. (no reports of arrests confirmed as of yet from there). At the same time, students at Sharif University gathered inside their campus and chanted “Ya Hossein; Mir Hossein” and “Allah o Akbar” but were prevented from coming out by security forces.

By far the bloodiest clashes took place in Enghelab Square, which --- with adjoining streets --- was filled by at least 5,000 members of Iran’s security forces. At least 12 protesters were detained.

People also managed to gather in Taleghani Square, Palestine Square, Ferdowsi Square, Hafez Bridge, Laleh Park, Argentine Park and other areas. So far, the confirmed number of arrests stands at 21, but the actual number is almost certainly higher.

Due to the small numbers of videos available, the estimated number of protesters is anyone’s guess. However, it looks like today the streets had at least 10,000 security forces patrolling them, though I cannot confirm this number I can confirm.

There were two unconfirmed reports that merit a mention. The first one claimed that shots were heard from the government-owned broadcasting agency IRIB and that several of its staff members were held hostage by security forces inside the building. The second report claimed that some protesters had managed to break into security forces’ vehicles and managed to take their helmets and other equipment.

As for other cities, reports are few and far between. There are no videos of protests in these cities so far, although in the next few hours --- given the pattern from Tehran --- there probably will be.

Considering the fact that the Iranian government had amassed an army of security personnel to stop protesters from gathering, today’s events are a clear sign that the government is failing, as it has failed in the past, to quell the uprising. Whether the future holds more victories for the government or the Green Movement is as yet uncertain, but protesters returning from gatherings in Tehran were very optimistic and cheerful. Some indicated on blogs that it was a “great day” while others called it “the day we learned that we really are countless.”

So although a lot is still not certain today, there is one certainty. The successful protests, despite the government’s pressure, is going to give a strong morale boost to the Green Movement and is likely to make another dent in the cracking walls of the Islamic Republic.

The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."