The Latest on Israel-Palestine: Lull Before the Diplomatic Flurry? (1 March)

Update: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has warned of "a sharp, painful, and strong respone" if the firing of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel does not stop. Nine rockets were launched this weekend.

On the eve of the Gaza donors' conference, which is more of a political dance than a significant effort to rebuild the area, and the tour of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (pictured) of the Middle East, there are a lot of meetings for show but no substance...yet.

After the Cairo discussions on Palestinian "reconciliation", including Hamas and Fatah delegations, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has tried to re-seize the initiative with a declaration that all aid for Gaza must go through his organisation. It is a call that may be supported by the donors' conference --- European Union representative Javier Solana immediately pledged allegiance after seeing Abbas on Saturday, "I would like to insist in agreement with the president that the mechanism used to deploy the money is the one that represents the Palestinian Authority."

In Palestine, however, Abbas' declaration may have little significance unless the Palestinian Authority can shore up its ebbing support in Gaza and, indeed, the West Bank. And that in turn probably rests upon some significant Israeli concession to allow goods and materials into the Strip.

Abbas supported his power play with a declaration that any Palestinian unity government must recognise Israel. Hamas in turn refused any recognition in advance of negotiations with Tel Aviv on other issues. "We reject any pre-conditions in the formation of the unity government. Hamas will never accept a unity government that recognizes Israel," said its spokesman Ayman Taha.

Abbas's statements follow his meeting on Friday with US envoy George Mitchell. The American gave away little on Washington's position in advance of Hillary Clinton's visit.

More intriguingly, Ha'aretz has reported US military assurances to Israel in advance of any negotiations. The head of US European Command, General John Craddock, met Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli military commanders to discuss how to improve Israel's missile interception capabilities, not primarily against Hamas but against Iran.