A Modest Proposal: Why Hamas May Move Towards a Settlement with Israel

More than two months after the unilateral ceasefires in the Gaza War, there has been little progress in discussions on Israel and Palestine. Not only have unity talks between Fatah and Hamas failed to reach a conclusion, but the Israeli-Hamas talks on a prisoner exchange have also been fruitless.

So what's the hold-up? Self-confidence. Hamas self-confidence.

According to all measurements, Hamas's popularity has been increasing, even in the West Bank, since the end of the war. Surviving the border blockade of Gaza and the heavy bombardments of Operation Cast Lead Hamas has strengthened its position in Gaza, as it has put out a constant anti-Fatah rhetoric.

In the unity talks to establish the pre-conditions for an election to form a unity government, the Palestinian Authority (dominated by Fatah) has been insisting on the principles of the Quartet of the US/UN/EU/Russia. These call for Hamas to renounce terrorism, recognise Israel, and abide by the 2005 agreement between Tel Aviv and the PA. Hamas does not and cannot accept this for the time being.

Despite its stronger position, Hamas is walking on a thin and fragile tightrope: it must either accept the Quartet's conditions and work in partnership with Fatah, or it will be excluded from the political arena and be increasingly marginalised. If the Obama Administration's regional policies move the new Israeli Government, because of deepening economic crisis or a resurgence in perception of Israeli "security" in US domestic politics, Hamas can lose everything it has now.

Hamas is putting its bargaining power on the line. It may get more concessions from Israel at the behest of the US over the course of time. However, even this will never allow Hamas to sustain its uncompromising stance against recognition of Israel and acceptance of the 2005 agreements.

What does this mean? Hamas officials, who are aware of this dilemma, will not insist on political principles that can never be fulfilled. As they gain more of a role in a Palestinian Government, encouraged by their showing in the next elections, they are going to recognize Israel.

This will probably take years. At first, a long-term truce (hudna) based on pre-1967 borders and some economic, political, environmental, and security cooperation will be established. That in turn may establish the platform for a long-standing peace agreement in the following years.

Those who are sceptical should look back to early 2006, just before Hamas's triumph in the Gaza elections. On 4 March, Hamas leader Moussa Abu Marzouk stated that recognition of Israel would be a rejection of the rights of Palestinians, and other officials claimed during the election campaign that Fatah's 16 years of peace talks with Israel were a waste of time. However, another top official, Mahmoud al-Zahar told CNN in January that a long-term truce was possible if Israel withdrew to pre-1967 borders and released Palestinian prisoners. T

Three years later, Hamas spokesman Ayman Taha has said that the organization is unwilling to recognize Israel and to accept the agreements signed by the PA. Yet, as it manoeuvres in negotiations in Cairo and with Tel Aviv, Hamas has to consider if that position will jeopardise its political future.

In 2006, the US would not recognise Hamas' victory in Gazan elections because it believed that the organisation would be reinforced in its refusal to accept any relationship with Israel. Three years later, Hamas can defy this prediction:  establishing and consolidating its gains in a Palestinian Parliament and possibly a Presidency, the Gazan leadership could decide to come in from the political cold. The process would take time and careful language, but acceptance of the Quartet's conditions and a unity government in Palestine are possible. And so, eventually, is a regional peace based on pre-1967 borders with Israel.

The Latest from Israel-Palestine (15 March): Reconciliation Talks Stalled

Evening Update (8:15 p.m.): As we projected earlier this week, reconciliation talks in Egypt between Palestinian factions are making gradual headway at best. While delegates are offering little detail, Hamas spokesman Taher al-Onoo has told Reuters: "There was progress in some issues last night. There is an optimism, a cautious optimism. Still the issues of the government and elections remained [unresolved]."

Senior Fatah official Nabil Shaath said that the five working committees "have done all their work" except for two issues: "The difficulties are, first, what kind of commitments the government ought to give to gain international acceptance and, second, whether (the government) is composed of (representatives of) the organisations or independents."

Translation: Hamas and Fatah are fighting over the framework and timing of the next set of Presidential and legislative elections, which could be critical in determining which party has the upper hand in Palestinian politics.

Morning Update: Hints over the last few days that there might be a deal swapping Palestinian prisoners for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured), held by Hamas since 2006, have been given substance with Israeli negotiators travelling to Cairo for talks. The head of Israel's domestic security service Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, and Ofer Dekel are returning to Tel Aviv today, and the Israeli Cabinet will discuss the proposal tomorrow.

There are strong incentives on both sides for a deal. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, after defeat in the Lebanon War of 2006 and an inconclusive result in Gaza in 2008/9, would get a symbolic victory, and Hamas could claim credit for the release of dozens of Palestinian detainees.

On the other hand, that boost for Hamas may be too much for Israeli politicians to countenance, and the Palestinian Authority would be at best lukewarm about the outcome. So it is very much touch-and-go whether Olmert departs, with a new Israeli Government under Benjamin Netanyahu taking a harder line, without success.

The Latest from Israel-Palestine (12 March): Talks But No News

In contrast to the barrage of stories surrounding last month's negotiating manoeuvres between Israel, Hamas, and Fatah last month, yesterday's resumption of "reconciliation" talks in Cairo between Hamas, Fatah, and other Palestinian factions went almost unnoticed by US and British media.

In part, that is because the discussions have moved from the high-profile drama of delegations setting out broad positions for their leadership of Palestine to the more mundane exchanges in five committees on security, economics, and political structure.

In part, however, it is because the drama of December/January war and clashes between the Palestianian Authority, led by Fatah, and Hamas has given way to glacial progress, if not stalemate. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas wants the support of quick decisions for his flagging political position. So of course it is in the interests of Hamas to delay until it gets acceptance of its stance on border crossing and security arrangements as well as clear recognition that it is the equal of the PA.

That Hamas approach is being bolstered by the latest opinion poll which shows, for the first time, that Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniya is ahead of Abbas amongst those who would vote in the next (still unscheduled) Presidential election for Palestine. The margin is small --- 47 to 45 percent --- but it is evidence that the PA and Fatah cannot rely on their base support in the West Bank to maintain leadership. Equally important, the trend since the Gaza War is sharply against Abbas: in December, he led Haniya by 48 to 38 percent.

The Latest on Israel-Palestine (8 March): Fayyad Resigns

Morning Update (6:15 a.m. GMT; 8:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad (pictured) "resigned" as Prime Minister of the West Bank on Saturday. Fayyad's appointment, like that of West Bank President Mohammad Abbas, formally expired on 9 January, but both men continued to claim political authority.

It is unclear what lies behind the resignation. The media spin is that this "may help smooth the way for a Palestinian unity government that would be acceptable to both Hamas and Fatah", the party of both Fayyad and Abbas, but the only basis for this is Fayyad's cursory statement of his reasons for stepping down.

Meanwhile, there were a series of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, responding to six rockets launched from the area, on Saturday. The Israeli military said two "smuggling tunnels" on the southern Gaza border and one "weaponry storage site" in Gaza City were targeted.

Ms Clinton's Wild Ride: Pot, Kettle, Black

From Bloomberg News Service:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (pictured) is trying to undermine the Palestinian Authority, which intends to negotiate a peace agreement with Israel.

At a Tehran conference today, Khamenei said if the Western world wouldn’t put the question of who should rule the Palestinians to a vote, then it would show a lack of commitment to democracy. He called for “resistance” against Israel, aided by Muslims worldwide, to support the Palestinian people, according to Agence France-Presse.

Khamenei’s comments represented “clear interference in the internal affairs of the Palestinian people,” Clinton told reporters traveling with her today to Brussels for NATO and European meetings.