The Latest from Israel-Palestine (15 March): Reconciliation Talks Stalled

Evening Update (8:15 p.m.): As we projected earlier this week, reconciliation talks in Egypt between Palestinian factions are making gradual headway at best. While delegates are offering little detail, Hamas spokesman Taher al-Onoo has told Reuters: "There was progress in some issues last night. There is an optimism, a cautious optimism. Still the issues of the government and elections remained [unresolved]."

Senior Fatah official Nabil Shaath said that the five working committees "have done all their work" except for two issues: "The difficulties are, first, what kind of commitments the government ought to give to gain international acceptance and, second, whether (the government) is composed of (representatives of) the organisations or independents."

Translation: Hamas and Fatah are fighting over the framework and timing of the next set of Presidential and legislative elections, which could be critical in determining which party has the upper hand in Palestinian politics.

Morning Update: Hints over the last few days that there might be a deal swapping Palestinian prisoners for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit (pictured), held by Hamas since 2006, have been given substance with Israeli negotiators travelling to Cairo for talks. The head of Israel's domestic security service Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, and Ofer Dekel are returning to Tel Aviv today, and the Israeli Cabinet will discuss the proposal tomorrow.

There are strong incentives on both sides for a deal. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, after defeat in the Lebanon War of 2006 and an inconclusive result in Gaza in 2008/9, would get a symbolic victory, and Hamas could claim credit for the release of dozens of Palestinian detainees.

On the other hand, that boost for Hamas may be too much for Israeli politicians to countenance, and the Palestinian Authority would be at best lukewarm about the outcome. So it is very much touch-and-go whether Olmert departs, with a new Israeli Government under Benjamin Netanyahu taking a harder line, without success.