Iran: The Green Movement's Next Steps (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for EA:

Yesterday was the funeral in Qom of Banoo Rabbani, the wife of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. Despite claims by some activists that Greens were going to join the funeral and protest, the atmosphere for most participants was one of silent contemplation. Security forces essentially took over the funeral procession,arresting 30 people, and Rabbani was not even buried in the location selected by her family.

The funeral follows Chahrshanbeh Suri, the Fire Festival, on 16 March. Although there was much celebration, despite the disapproval of authorities including a Supreme Leader fatwa, no protest was planned or executed by the Green Movement.

So is the decision not to use public holidays or funerals for staging protests a bad one by the Movement?


The answer is no. The movement has endured for more than nine months. It has sufficient backing and is confident enough that it will survive, despite every repressive measure of the regime, that it does not have to periodically show the world, the Iranian government, and ordinary Iranians that it can put people on the streets. At the same time, the Greens have made clear that they will not be backing down from their demands, let alone giving up.

Mir Hossein Mousavi's Nowruz address clearly hinted at this, as he . declared, "Withdrawing our demands of unconditional execution of the Constitution is an act of treason for Iran and for Islam. This is a demand that we will not abandon."

So next question: What is the Green Movement going to do if not hold protests on holidays?

Again, Mousavi's address offers a good answer:

Faced with such a situation [overwhelming violence by the government], the Green Movement must expand its reach to all segments of society. The Green Movement must revive the timeless social and Islamic principle of inclusion. We must lend a hand to neighbors and neighborhoods both near and far, through job creation and other forms of interaction.

This Iranian Year 1389, according to Mousavi, is the year of "persistence". Several activists with whom I have spoken are hopeful that within the next few months, the Green Movement will not only survive but also thrive as it wins more supporters to its side.

Indeed, their resolve is that they need not just a majority of Iran's people to back them, but an overwhelming majority. One activist noted that next time they hold a protest in Tehran, they don't want "only" one or two million participants but hope to have as much as half the city on the streets.

Only time will demonstrate how successful this will be. The Green Movement, though, is not just a spontaneous mass of discontented citizens, but an organized and well-informed movement whose members are slowly building up networks within the country and unifying their goals, all the while preparing for future confrontations with the Government.

Comments

[News vom 30. März « Arsh]

[...] Josh Shahryar: Die nächsten Schritte der Grünen Bewegung [...]

[Nemo]

"The movement has endured for more than nine months. It has sufficient backing and is confident enough that it will survive, despite every repressive measure of the regime, that it does not have to periodically show the world, the Iranian government, and ordinary Iranians that it can put people on the streets."

I am sure that this statement is true. But the green movement has a difficult task ahead if it wants to mobilise ever larger shares of the population. This will require a united effort by many activists (virtually, by everyone), and determination to overcome repression as well as social barriers. Then again, nothing is impossible, and the regime will certainly do its part to make people more upset and angry...

@Josh: Nice job, as always!

[James the Hype]

I am encouraged by the many signs that, despite a palpable lull in organized activity, the sprouts of the Green Movement can be seen breaking through the oppression. I think you've hit the nail on the head, Josh.

I have a worry about some of the medium sized protests we've seen. When a few people resist, and there is no organized protest, the story is that the Green Movement breaks out even when nothing is planned. When there are large protests, the storyline is obvious.

But what about the medium protests? I worry that, if they continue, the story will be that there weren't enough protesters, the government "handled" the protesters, and I'm most worried that the protesters, faced with violence, will turn to violence. If this happens, I would understand the act of individuals who are defending themselves. The news story, however, could easily paint the Greens are terrorist thugs instead of the freedom fighters who they are.

There is a lot of churning inside the Green Movement, and the natives are very restless. I wonder, what steps could the average Iranian take, short of protests, in order to show their discontent with the government. I think Chahrshanbeh Suri was a fantastic example of this. There has been much talk about economic strikes, or things like that, but the Nowruz celebration masks the extent of these activities. The politicians are working, the Greens are networking, the dissatisfaction and outrage has not gone away, but how will they defy the government next time?

[Chuck Hamilton]

Contrary to what it may have looked like from the lesser number of Youtube videos, Flickr photos, and Tweets--due to the regime's asphyxiation of internet bandwidth in the days surrounding the event--there were actually more people out in the streets of Tehran on 22 Bahman than on Ashura. Also, protests took place in more cities than on Ashura.

True, for the most part the festivities on Chaharshanbe Suri were apolitical (except for green fires--created with borax and antifreeze--and green paint bombs), but their having taken place at all is itself an act of defiance given the fatwa issued against the holiday by the Supreme Leader.

[Maria Rohaly]

James - this idea of churn, of change - I think it is correct.

The movement outside of Iran indicates that this is a time when people are finding their real places, and moving there (sometimes rather literally! ;) ).

Some of the organizations that cropped up and became prominent in the immediate aftermath of the elections have withered away and died, or are not engaging in any actions with real demands or specific objectives. A new set of individuals and small organizations that remain dedicated to ongoing active support of the people demanding freedom in Iran is rising to fill the vacuum left behind. Peeling off the fluff, leaving a smaller but more tightly knit core.

This is happening in a context characterized by ongoing political wrangling amongst adherents of a variety of long-established political parties/perspectives.

Some of the activists are party members or adherents to certain political ideologies and some are not. Many of the party members are not particularly active beyond arguing and fighting about ideology with others.

Boiling down the contents of your saucepan reduces the volume of liquid, but increases the potency of the flavor.

This is where the people are on the outside. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar was happening with people on the inside.