Iran: The Green Movement's Next Steps (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for EA:

Yesterday was the funeral in Qom of Banoo Rabbani, the wife of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. Despite claims by some activists that Greens were going to join the funeral and protest, the atmosphere for most participants was one of silent contemplation. Security forces essentially took over the funeral procession,arresting 30 people, and Rabbani was not even buried in the location selected by her family.

The funeral follows Chahrshanbeh Suri, the Fire Festival, on 16 March. Although there was much celebration, despite the disapproval of authorities including a Supreme Leader fatwa, no protest was planned or executed by the Green Movement.

So is the decision not to use public holidays or funerals for staging protests a bad one by the Movement?


The answer is no. The movement has endured for more than nine months. It has sufficient backing and is confident enough that it will survive, despite every repressive measure of the regime, that it does not have to periodically show the world, the Iranian government, and ordinary Iranians that it can put people on the streets. At the same time, the Greens have made clear that they will not be backing down from their demands, let alone giving up.

Mir Hossein Mousavi's Nowruz address clearly hinted at this, as he . declared, "Withdrawing our demands of unconditional execution of the Constitution is an act of treason for Iran and for Islam. This is a demand that we will not abandon."

So next question: What is the Green Movement going to do if not hold protests on holidays?

Again, Mousavi's address offers a good answer:

Faced with such a situation [overwhelming violence by the government], the Green Movement must expand its reach to all segments of society. The Green Movement must revive the timeless social and Islamic principle of inclusion. We must lend a hand to neighbors and neighborhoods both near and far, through job creation and other forms of interaction.

This Iranian Year 1389, according to Mousavi, is the year of "persistence". Several activists with whom I have spoken are hopeful that within the next few months, the Green Movement will not only survive but also thrive as it wins more supporters to its side.

Indeed, their resolve is that they need not just a majority of Iran's people to back them, but an overwhelming majority. One activist noted that next time they hold a protest in Tehran, they don't want "only" one or two million participants but hope to have as much as half the city on the streets.

Only time will demonstrate how successful this will be. The Green Movement, though, is not just a spontaneous mass of discontented citizens, but an organized and well-informed movement whose members are slowly building up networks within the country and unifying their goals, all the while preparing for future confrontations with the Government.

The Latest from Iran (21 March): Happy New Year, Mr Ahmadinejad

1750 GMT: It's All About US and Us. A slowish news phase, so the media are focusing on Ayatollah Khamenei's Sunday speech. It's on the lines of the Twitter publicity put out by his office (1330 and 1420 GMT), but this extract is especially provocative:

The enemies wanted to divide the people... and to create a civil war, but the nation was alert. If they were able to do it, the US and Zionist regime would have sent troops to Tehran's streets, but they knew it would hurt them. Thus they spread propaganda and supported the rioters.

1730 GMT: We've posted Iranian New Year videos featuring defiant chants from the opposition.

1440 GMT: Parliament v. President. Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming a fight-back against Parliamentary resistance to Ahmadinejad subsidy reform and spending proposals, quoting Arsalan Fathipour, head of the Parliament's economic commission, "We believe it is not possible to implement the subsidy reform plan at 20,000 billion tomans ($20 billion). So delegates intend to raise the figure to 35-38,000 billion tomans ($35-38 billion)." That would be almost all the $40 billion demanded by the President.

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The Latest from Iran (20 March): Nowruz

1430 GMT: Obama and Iran. Edward Yeranian of the Voice of America claims that there was a "mized" reception amongst "Iranians inside and outside Iran" of President Obama's Nowruz message.


1420 GMT: "Rights" Annoys Khamenei. The emphasis in Barack Obama's Nowruz message on rights for Iran's people has annoyed the Supreme Leader. His office's Twitter barrage continues:

USA President sent letter and message to normalize relations, but his actions was against his words....USA President called distruptives "civil movement" and supported arsonists in recent events....Aren't you ashamed of killing in innocent people in Iraq and Afghanistan while talking about Human Rights?

1340 GMT: Winning on the Internet. The Guardian of London offers an interview with Austin Heap, the creator of the Haystack initiative to assist Iranians with access to the Internet, evading regime blocks and protecting their security.

1330 GMT: Everything Most Excellent Here. Really. The Supreme Leader's Twitter machine is extracting English quotes from his Nowruz message. My favourite so far: "Last Iranian year was the nation's year and their victory; a year of seeming presence in glorious arena."

1005 GMT: Speaking of Rights. Nooshabeh Amiri, writing in Rooz Online, considers "Women’s Movement [As] a Prelude to the Green Movement".

1000 GMT: US, Iran, and Rights. We've put our snap analysis of a possible shift in US policy on Iran into a separate ent

0900 GMT: The Ruling of the Umpire. The Iran-based blogger Persian Umpire is back after an absence with three entries: one on the events of 22 Bahman (11 February), one on waiting outside Evin Prison for a detained friend, and one on last week's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) ceremonies.

The summary of the festival offers one of the classic observations of this post-election crisis: "No one gave a certain rodent’s bottom for the fatwa [of Ayatollah Khamenei]. In fact it solidified people’s resolve to come out and celebrate."

0700 GMT: As Iranians celebrate Nowruz, they have been greeted by messages for the New Year. And there is more than a bit of politics behind the best wishes. The most pointed intervention may have come from Mehdi Karroubi, who derided the regime (a "small barge" not a "galleon") as illegitimate. We have the video and a summary.

President Ahmadinejad offered his own message, but the question is whether it has been overshadowed by events which do not point to 1389 as his happiest year. Consider....

As EA's Mr Verde predicted, the President got both a slap and a warning with the release of Hashemi Rafsanjani's relative and political ally Hossein Marashi from prison. Officially, the freedom is only temporary for Nowruz --- Marashi was jailed on Thursday after an appeals court upheld a one-year sentence for "propaganda against the regime". Beyond the official, the political significance will be whether Marashi goes back to prison; if not, it will be a dent in the authority of the Government.

Rooz Online echoes Mr Verde's assessment of an Ahmadinejad failure in his Thursday mission to Qom to get the support of senior clerics, claiming "the chief authorities refused his presence". (Rooz adds a name to those who did meet with Ahmadinejad: Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi.)

In Tehran three lawmakers, prominent in economic discussions, criticised Ahmadinejad for his Friday suggestion of a referendum on his subsidy reform and spending plans, saying he is legally obliged to execute the economic reform plan approved by the Parliament. Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moqaddam, Ali Tavakkoli, and Elyas Naderan  said in ajoint statement, "The president does not have the right to disobey a law which has been approved by the Parliament."

Iran: Fire Festival 1, Khamenei 0 (Verde)

Mr Verde reflects on the triumph of Tuesday's Chahrshanbeh Suri celebrations over the Supreme Leader:

You get the feeling that some people (including a few journalists) who look into Iran from the outside seem to think they are watching a Hollywood movie: they are always looking for the next adrenaline rush of something “dramatic”. If no one is hurt or killed in the streets, then it is assumed that nothing of interest is happening in Iran. While the terrible footage of people being shot in the streets of Tehran or the sickening details of the torture and rape of detainees are important (very important) and relevant (very relevant), we have to understand that the struggle in Iran is not limited to being shot in the streets or raped in prisons. These sickening events are part of the regime’s mechanisms for trying to control and kill off the opposition (although it is obvious that it failed to do so), but they are surely not what we want to see happening in Iran on a daily basis.

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On one level this year’s Chaharshanbeh Suri was what it should really be: despite the annual attempt of authorities to crack down on the occasion, people celebrated an ancient tradition and enjoyed themselves.


On another level, this year’s Chaharshanbeh Suri was different from the previous years. It came nine months after June’s disputed elections, nine months of relentless oppression by the regime, nine months of indescribable brutality by the security forces.

It also came one month after the regime’s attempts to demonstrate its popularity on 22 Bahman (11 February) in Azadi Square. On that day the regime turned Tehran into a military camp and was forced to use tear gas against a 72-year-old cleric. But it seems that Ali Khamenei may have been fooled by the few close-angle shots that the official media provided from the half empty Azadi Square. Alternatively, he too was well aware of his regime’s inability to demonstrate real popular support on that day.

Whatever his reason --- pride or dejection or fear --- Khamenei gave a fatwa ruling Chaharshanbeh Suri outside religion and declaring that it made no sense. Even if, with his limited religious credentials, Khamenei has the right to issue religious fatwas, his views about Chaharshanbeh Suri say more about Khamenei than about the Fire Festival. Khamenei is in his 70s. He has lived in Iran all his life and has been exposed to Chaharshanbeh Suri for many years. If Khamenei cannot make sense of our culture, it is HIS problem not ours.

Ali Khamenei had no business sticking his nose into something that he himself admitted that he does not understand. And he got a bloody nose out of it. Just as in the case of his message of “condolence” for Montazeri’s death, Khamenei took on something that was much bigger than him and he was humiliated. Imagine telling people no barbeques or fireworks for the Fourth of July. Imagine ordering all bars and pubs to close for St Patrick’s Day. This is what Khamenei did with his fatwa about Chaharshanbeh Suri and he discredited himself further.

So why did he intervene so clumsily? Maybe the thinking was this:

The protests are over after 22 Bahman (obviously wrong). People are scared of the “power” of the regime (wrong --- if shooting people on the streets had not scared people, how could filling less than half of Azadi Square?). The authorities have warned people not to celebrate Chaharshanbeh Suri (people had ignored such threats before). There is going to be a heavy security presence everywhere (this has been the case for nine months).

So Khamenei and his advisors probably thought that people won’t celebrate Chaharshanbeh Suri and they tried to turn it into political capital. Khamenei would give the fatwa, no one would show up, and the conclusion would be that people accept whatever Khamenei says, even when it is the dismissal of of a millennia-old tradition.

Didn't turn out that way. The result is Chaharshanbeh Suri 1 (Khamenei own goal), Supreme Leader 0.

A non-Iranian friend asked me about Khamenei’s fatwa and why Iranians seemed to be upset about it. I replied:

“Why Chaharshanbeh Suri matters to me?"

Because it is part of my cultural heritage, as is has been part of the cultural heritage of my ancestors for a very long time.

I have no doubt that the way we celebrate Chaharshanbeh Suri today is different from its original form. I also have no doubt that denying Chaharshanbeh Suri as part of our culture is the folly of people who have either a limited understanding of being who we are, or of people who want to wipe the slate clean and make our lives all about them.

The onslaught we are witnessing on our culture is nothing to new. Our culture has withstood many a fierce attack in the past.

To borrow a phrase from a gentleman who himself is trying to deny this part of our culture, the efforts of the sect-like group is not even a “caricature” of the onslaughts that our culture has withstood in the past.

The Latest from Iran (17 March): Celebration

2125 GMT: We Persist. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters, many of whose members have been detaineed, has issued a statement:

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters once again by maintaining the path that it has taken and by supporting other human rights organizations, emphasizes that it will continue its decisive activities in reporting human rights conditions on both national and international levels through collaborations with independent and credible international human rights organizations.

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The Latest from Iran (16 March): Fire and Politics

2115 GMT: Karroubi's Big Line. Here's the stinger statement from Mehdi Karroubi as he addressed the (banned) Islamic Iran Participation Front: "Why is it that the justifications of the Shah for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming from you is to be considered right?"


1945  GMT: Political Prisoner News. Documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof, who was arrested in the raid on director Jafar Panahi's house, has been released. Panahi is the only person from the incident who remains in detention.

1915 GMT: Picture of the Day. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, on his release from detention:



1910 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran has cut the cheap petrol ration by 25% to 60 litres per vehicle per month from 21 March. Currently, each vehicle is allowed a quota of 80 litres of fuel at 10 cents a litre, with any amount needed on top of that priced at 40 cents.

Now is the move part of President Ahmadinejad's subsidies reduction plan or a response to tightening fuel supplies with the prospect of reduced imports? Or both?

1900 GMT: Labour News. We've posted an interview with Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, about the minimum wage, inflation, and the prospect of "poverty and hunger" for Iran's labourers.

1745 GMT: Reformist Relay. Once again, prominent opposition figures are putting out a series of statements. There is Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mehdi Karroubi's "Let Us Rally" statement (see 1600 GMT), and Mohammad Khatami's address to members of the Islamic associations of Tehran universities.

Khatami insisted that the government "does not have the right to defy the constitution" and declare that its opponents are "adversaries of the regime". He asked the Iranian judiciary, "How is it that baseless accusations against some people are pursued fiercely by the judiciary whilst deviant groups are free to insult and slander any Shiite leader they might dislike?"

Khatami emphasized that the establishment can resolve problems by releasing political prisoners and upholding liberties that are the people's legal right.

1600 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The Facebook site that supports Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a statement from Mehdi Karroubi, "Let Us Hold a Rally".

1345 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The reformist Parleman News declares "One Step Forward" for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his political manoeuvres.

1245 GMT: I'm Not Sure You Get It, Dude. At a news conference, Minister of Oil Masoud Mir Kazemi has warned that Tehran will blacklist companies which stop their gasoline exports to the country.

With respect, Mr Kazemi, I think the point here is not that you might blacklist them but that they are blacklisting you (since Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of gasoline). As Khabar Online, which carries the report, notes, "It's not clear how Iranian government is to punish the companies which cut off gasoline delivery to the country."

1235 GMT: Another Death Sentence. Amidst chatter, some of it from the regime, about capital punishments, the International Committee for Human Rights in Iran claims a confirmed case. Abdolreza Ghanbari, accused of "mohareb" (war against God) for participation in Ashura protests, has been sentenced to death.

1230 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (2). The wife of Mostafa Tajzadeh. former Deputy Minister of Interior and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has declared that he "will talk to the people on a convenient occasion". Tajzadeh was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.

1210 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (1). The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has issued a statement: Ahmadinejad has erased freedom and taken the bread from people's tables.

1205 GMT: Etemaad To Re-Open (at a Cost)? Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a "bail" (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year.

1025 GMT: Happy New Year, "Rioters". Under the heading of not-very-surprising news, Press TV reports:

Sentences have been handed down to 86 detainees of Tehran's Western-led post-election unrests on charges that include taking part in illegal riots and disrupting public order....
According to the statement, the sentences were issued for charges such as "conspiring against national security, spreading propaganda against the establishment, membership in hostile and anti-Revolutionary groups, taking part in illegal gatherings, and disrupting public order."

0848 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A poor attempt at analysis, simplifying a complex politician, in Foreign Policy. The magazine headlines a piece by Genevieve Abdo, a front-line writer on Iranian politics, "Iran's most independent politician finally casts his lot with the hard-liners."

There's a huge difference between giving support to the Supreme Leader, which Rafsanjani has clearly set out in recent months, and giving support to the Government. Abdo's evidence for the latter consists of this: Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad were both at a celebration on 4 March of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

Hmm.... Might want to set this against the steady sniping at the Government from Rafsanjani allies like Hassan Rohani. And it might be useful to speak with someone in the opposition before telling readers:

The green movement is taking Rafsanjani's return to the fold as a setback. With his independent voice now subsumed into the hard-line camp, there is no doubt this development will lead him to curtail his recent criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

(Normally I wouldn't put such a poor analysis in the updates. But Foreign Policy is a front-line website for the Washington networks, so assertions like these can be read by US officials and journalists as the "hot intelligence" on Iran.)

0844 GMT: Mousavi's New Year. Mir Hossein Mousavi has already set down a marker for "a year of patience and steadfastness" in his speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Now he and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, announce they are putting out a video message, addressed to the people of Iran, for the Nowruz (the Iranian New Year).

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Saeed Nourmohammadi, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on bail.

0830 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at last night's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations. There are two videos with different visions of the evening, and we have an analysis: "Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration....Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political."

Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?

Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration.

After months of reporting on tension and conflict, it was a pleasure to watch the joy of Iranians on Chahrshanbeh Suri, the eve of Iranian New Year celebration of the renewal of fire. Although there was a heavy security presence in main streets and squares, this did not --- as The Washington Post reported --- "block traditional celebrations".

Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)

Instead, on side streets and outside residences across Iran, people gathered to set off firecrackers, sing, dance, and jump over the small fires which hark back to Zoroastrian tradition. An EA reader eagerly wrote us, "Our family live in a provincial town. It was rocking tonight with the sound of fireworks! Cud be heard in every part of the town :-)" Even in Press TV's state-sanitised video of events, there is the pleasure of an elderly woman gingerly skipping in her long dress over a few inches of flame.



I never had the sense, despite some eager chatter, that this was going to be an occasion for bring-down-the-Government marches. Some in the Western media, coming late to the party, had the misleading impression that this was going to be an attempted recovery of the blunted rally of 22 Bahman (11 February) --- The Guardian, which set up emergency LiveBlog coverage, seemed particularly disappointed --- but this was not a make-or-break Green Movement moment.

Instead, this was an occasion to celebrate Iranian identity and to have some fun. For me, that seems to be more than enough to observe and praise.

Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political.

But even if the videos coming out of Iran were limited and of basic quality --- the regime is still waging a cyber-war against communication --- and even if the direct protests of "Death to the Dictator" were scattered, don't be mistaken: even having fun and "being Iranian" can be a political act.

Ironically, we have the Supreme Leader to thank for making this clear. His clumsy intervention that Chahrshanbeh Suri “has no religious basis and is harmful and must be avoided” turned an appearance at the Fire Festival into a gesture of disregard or even defiance.

He may be Supreme Leader, but this was how far Ayatollah Khamenei's legitimacy extends. This morning, after thousands (how many thousands?) celebrated in his or her way, the Supreme Leader's "fatwa" has reportedly been removed from his website.

To show authority, security forces closed stores and shopping malls in Tehran during the afternoon and banned motorcycles in the city. Municipal garbage containers were collected to prevent their being used to make bonfires. Thousands of officers were placed at the capital's main gathering points. Neighborhood police officers went door to door warning residents that large celebrations were banned.

As thousands (how many thousands?) still sang and danced and set off their firecrackers, was this a sign of regime legitimacy or a sign of forced authority? As thousands (how many thousands?) shared the festivities with friends and family, was this a sign of confidence or a sign of fear?

As we closed coverage last night, the message came in from a Tehran resident, via another EA reader, who had been told of "Western" reports that nothing political had occurred during Chahrshanbeh Suri. The resident, after an evening of joy and celebration, simply responded:

"In Iran everything is political."