The Latest from Iran (17 March): Celebration

2125 GMT: We Persist. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters, many of whose members have been detaineed, has issued a statement:

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters once again by maintaining the path that it has taken and by supporting other human rights organizations, emphasizes that it will continue its decisive activities in reporting human rights conditions on both national and international levels through collaborations with independent and credible international human rights organizations.

NEW Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, “Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger”, and Strikes
NEW Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?
NEW Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)
Iran Document: Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Resistance” (15 March)
Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Karroubi’s House (14 March)
Iran Breaking: Ban on Reformist Political Party
The Latest from Iran (16 March): Fire and Politics

2115 GMT: Karroubi's Big Line. Here's the stinger statement from Mehdi Karroubi as he addressed the (banned) Islamic Iran Participation Front: "Why is it that the justifications of the Shah for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming from you is to be considered right?"


1945  GMT: Political Prisoner News. Documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof, who was arrested in the raid on director Jafar Panahi's house, has been released. Panahi is the only person from the incident who remains in detention.

1915 GMT: Picture of the Day. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, on his release from detention:



1910 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran has cut the cheap petrol ration by 25% to 60 litres per vehicle per month from 21 March. Currently, each vehicle is allowed a quota of 80 litres of fuel at 10 cents a litre, with any amount needed on top of that priced at 40 cents.

Now is the move part of President Ahmadinejad's subsidies reduction plan or a response to tightening fuel supplies with the prospect of reduced imports? Or both?

1900 GMT: Labour News. We've posted an interview with Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, about the minimum wage, inflation, and the prospect of "poverty and hunger" for Iran's labourers.

1745 GMT: Reformist Relay. Once again, prominent opposition figures are putting out a series of statements. There is Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mehdi Karroubi's "Let Us Rally" statement (see 1600 GMT), and Mohammad Khatami's address to members of the Islamic associations of Tehran universities.

Khatami insisted that the government "does not have the right to defy the constitution" and declare that its opponents are "adversaries of the regime". He asked the Iranian judiciary, "How is it that baseless accusations against some people are pursued fiercely by the judiciary whilst deviant groups are free to insult and slander any Shiite leader they might dislike?"

Khatami emphasized that the establishment can resolve problems by releasing political prisoners and upholding liberties that are the people's legal right.

1600 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The Facebook site that supports Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a statement from Mehdi Karroubi, "Let Us Hold a Rally".

1345 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The reformist Parleman News declares "One Step Forward" for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his political manoeuvres.

1245 GMT: I'm Not Sure You Get It, Dude. At a news conference, Minister of Oil Masoud Mir Kazemi has warned that Tehran will blacklist companies which stop their gasoline exports to the country.

With respect, Mr Kazemi, I think the point here is not that you might blacklist them but that they are blacklisting you (since Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of gasoline). As Khabar Online, which carries the report, notes, "It's not clear how Iranian government is to punish the companies which cut off gasoline delivery to the country."

1235 GMT: Another Death Sentence. Amidst chatter, some of it from the regime, about capital punishments, the International Committee for Human Rights in Iran claims a confirmed case. Abdolreza Ghanbari, accused of "mohareb" (war against God) for participation in Ashura protests, has been sentenced to death.

1230 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (2). The wife of Mostafa Tajzadeh. former Deputy Minister of Interior and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has declared that he "will talk to the people on a convenient occasion". Tajzadeh was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.

1210 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (1). The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has issued a statement: Ahmadinejad has erased freedom and taken the bread from people's tables.

1205 GMT: Etemaad To Re-Open (at a Cost)? Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a "bail" (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year.

1025 GMT: Happy New Year, "Rioters". Under the heading of not-very-surprising news, Press TV reports:

Sentences have been handed down to 86 detainees of Tehran's Western-led post-election unrests on charges that include taking part in illegal riots and disrupting public order....
According to the statement, the sentences were issued for charges such as "conspiring against national security, spreading propaganda against the establishment, membership in hostile and anti-Revolutionary groups, taking part in illegal gatherings, and disrupting public order."

0848 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A poor attempt at analysis, simplifying a complex politician, in Foreign Policy. The magazine headlines a piece by Genevieve Abdo, a front-line writer on Iranian politics, "Iran's most independent politician finally casts his lot with the hard-liners."

There's a huge difference between giving support to the Supreme Leader, which Rafsanjani has clearly set out in recent months, and giving support to the Government. Abdo's evidence for the latter consists of this: Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad were both at a celebration on 4 March of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

Hmm.... Might want to set this against the steady sniping at the Government from Rafsanjani allies like Hassan Rohani. And it might be useful to speak with someone in the opposition before telling readers:

The green movement is taking Rafsanjani's return to the fold as a setback. With his independent voice now subsumed into the hard-line camp, there is no doubt this development will lead him to curtail his recent criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

(Normally I wouldn't put such a poor analysis in the updates. But Foreign Policy is a front-line website for the Washington networks, so assertions like these can be read by US officials and journalists as the "hot intelligence" on Iran.)

0844 GMT: Mousavi's New Year. Mir Hossein Mousavi has already set down a marker for "a year of patience and steadfastness" in his speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Now he and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, announce they are putting out a video message, addressed to the people of Iran, for the Nowruz (the Iranian New Year).

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Saeed Nourmohammadi, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on bail.

0830 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at last night's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations. There are two videos with different visions of the evening, and we have an analysis: "Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration....Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political."

Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, "Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger", and Strikes

Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, in an interview with Deutsche Welle:

DW: Yesterday, the new Minimum Wage rate was announced. What is your assessment of the rate which is $303 (per month) for the next Iranian year?

Azim Zadeh: The $303 rate, which is an increase of 15 percent compared to the last year, not only will not solve any of the Iranian workers' problems, but compared to the current year rate of $260 will bring greater hunger and destitution for the Iranian working people.

Today in Tehran, $303 does not even pay for the rent of accommdation for a 4-person family. With $303, it may be possible only to pay rent for some periphery locations in Tehran. With food, clothing, health, education, and other expenses, I think the workers will face unprecedented poverty and hunger in the coming year.



DW: Considering that even the $260 was not paid for several months and the owed wages were postponed for the next year, how will the new year look for workers? What effect will this have on their lives?

Azim Zadeh: As I mentioned, setting $303 as the minimum wage will bring unprecedented poverty for workers. Indeed, the poverty and hunger in the coming year can not be compared with even the last couple of years.

Considering the expected high inflation and the ending subsidies, even if the minimum wages are paid on time, this will not take any burdens off the workers, let alone if they are postponed for six months or one year.

As you mentioned, we saw during this year the same low $260 monthly rate, which have been delayed for six months or for even a year. I dare say, the wages for three or four million workers across Iran (especially for those in one- or two-year projects, such as Asalouyeh, Mahshahrpor, and others, who have had their wages delayed) ensure they face very hard times.

Considering the current economic situation, it is expected that not only delays in wage payments will not be curtailed, but in the coming year it will actually increase. In such a situation, it is natural that absolute and unprecedented hunger will be forced on the working class in Iran.

DW: Considering that we are in the final days of the year and workers protests are continuing, what course will these protests take? And if there are to be any compromises between the state and the workers, how will that compromise be brokered?

Azim Zadeh: I think workers' protests will sharply increase in the coming year and spread across the country. As you know, the subsidies are expected to be cut by $20 billion. According to a report by the Parliament Research Office, the inflation rate caused by this cut will be 37 percent. (This is based on the inflation rate announced by the central bank which is 11 percent in the past three months.) All the while the government talks about a "gift" by raising the minimum wages by 15 percent.

It should also be noted that the psychological effect of cutting the subsidies will also increase the rate announced by the Parliament Research Office. Meanwhile, based on our experience of the Iranian economy, in the last 30 years, we have had a nominal increase of 30 percent in the inflation rate.

With the yearly inflation and the 37 percent cuts in subsidies recently announced, and the addition of the psychological effects, the $303 may not even have the buying power of today’s $100.

It is natural for workers to react to such a situation, especially with the chronic economic crisis always at hand and constant wage arrears. The Iranian working class shall not remain silent. Workers' unrest will increase.

On the understanding between the state and the workers, the rate announced today shows that the state and the employers are not at all willing to reach an understanding with the workers. They want to force hunger and poverty on the workers while continuing to enrich themselves. It is natural that the conclusion of such a scenario is the widespread workers protests.

DW: It is reported today that the government was not even able to agree to this 15 percent increase.

Azim Zadeh: Yes, that is true. The Labor Minister in last night's televised interview discussed the 15 percent increase and the 11 percent inflation rate. But the minister did not properly address its own labor law, which states that workers' wages are not to be based on inflation alone but also on the expenses of a family of four.

How is it possible to base the workers wages on this year’s inflation rate when the next year's inflation will be overwhelming for the workers? They are using the inflation rate from March while next year inflation will increase by 20 to 30 percent. Meanwhile, they have completely forgotten their own bases in the law, which is the expenses for a workers family of four.