The Latest from Iran (17 March): Celebration

2125 GMT: We Persist. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters, many of whose members have been detaineed, has issued a statement:

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters once again by maintaining the path that it has taken and by supporting other human rights organizations, emphasizes that it will continue its decisive activities in reporting human rights conditions on both national and international levels through collaborations with independent and credible international human rights organizations.

NEW Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, “Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger”, and Strikes
NEW Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?
NEW Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)
Iran Document: Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Resistance” (15 March)
Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Karroubi’s House (14 March)
Iran Breaking: Ban on Reformist Political Party
The Latest from Iran (16 March): Fire and Politics

2115 GMT: Karroubi's Big Line. Here's the stinger statement from Mehdi Karroubi as he addressed the (banned) Islamic Iran Participation Front: "Why is it that the justifications of the Shah for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming from you is to be considered right?"


1945  GMT: Political Prisoner News. Documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof, who was arrested in the raid on director Jafar Panahi's house, has been released. Panahi is the only person from the incident who remains in detention.

1915 GMT: Picture of the Day. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, on his release from detention:



1910 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran has cut the cheap petrol ration by 25% to 60 litres per vehicle per month from 21 March. Currently, each vehicle is allowed a quota of 80 litres of fuel at 10 cents a litre, with any amount needed on top of that priced at 40 cents.

Now is the move part of President Ahmadinejad's subsidies reduction plan or a response to tightening fuel supplies with the prospect of reduced imports? Or both?

1900 GMT: Labour News. We've posted an interview with Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, about the minimum wage, inflation, and the prospect of "poverty and hunger" for Iran's labourers.

1745 GMT: Reformist Relay. Once again, prominent opposition figures are putting out a series of statements. There is Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mehdi Karroubi's "Let Us Rally" statement (see 1600 GMT), and Mohammad Khatami's address to members of the Islamic associations of Tehran universities.

Khatami insisted that the government "does not have the right to defy the constitution" and declare that its opponents are "adversaries of the regime". He asked the Iranian judiciary, "How is it that baseless accusations against some people are pursued fiercely by the judiciary whilst deviant groups are free to insult and slander any Shiite leader they might dislike?"

Khatami emphasized that the establishment can resolve problems by releasing political prisoners and upholding liberties that are the people's legal right.

1600 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The Facebook site that supports Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a statement from Mehdi Karroubi, "Let Us Hold a Rally".

1345 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The reformist Parleman News declares "One Step Forward" for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his political manoeuvres.

1245 GMT: I'm Not Sure You Get It, Dude. At a news conference, Minister of Oil Masoud Mir Kazemi has warned that Tehran will blacklist companies which stop their gasoline exports to the country.

With respect, Mr Kazemi, I think the point here is not that you might blacklist them but that they are blacklisting you (since Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of gasoline). As Khabar Online, which carries the report, notes, "It's not clear how Iranian government is to punish the companies which cut off gasoline delivery to the country."

1235 GMT: Another Death Sentence. Amidst chatter, some of it from the regime, about capital punishments, the International Committee for Human Rights in Iran claims a confirmed case. Abdolreza Ghanbari, accused of "mohareb" (war against God) for participation in Ashura protests, has been sentenced to death.

1230 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (2). The wife of Mostafa Tajzadeh. former Deputy Minister of Interior and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has declared that he "will talk to the people on a convenient occasion". Tajzadeh was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.

1210 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (1). The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has issued a statement: Ahmadinejad has erased freedom and taken the bread from people's tables.

1205 GMT: Etemaad To Re-Open (at a Cost)? Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a "bail" (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year.

1025 GMT: Happy New Year, "Rioters". Under the heading of not-very-surprising news, Press TV reports:

Sentences have been handed down to 86 detainees of Tehran's Western-led post-election unrests on charges that include taking part in illegal riots and disrupting public order....
According to the statement, the sentences were issued for charges such as "conspiring against national security, spreading propaganda against the establishment, membership in hostile and anti-Revolutionary groups, taking part in illegal gatherings, and disrupting public order."

0848 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A poor attempt at analysis, simplifying a complex politician, in Foreign Policy. The magazine headlines a piece by Genevieve Abdo, a front-line writer on Iranian politics, "Iran's most independent politician finally casts his lot with the hard-liners."

There's a huge difference between giving support to the Supreme Leader, which Rafsanjani has clearly set out in recent months, and giving support to the Government. Abdo's evidence for the latter consists of this: Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad were both at a celebration on 4 March of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

Hmm.... Might want to set this against the steady sniping at the Government from Rafsanjani allies like Hassan Rohani. And it might be useful to speak with someone in the opposition before telling readers:

The green movement is taking Rafsanjani's return to the fold as a setback. With his independent voice now subsumed into the hard-line camp, there is no doubt this development will lead him to curtail his recent criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

(Normally I wouldn't put such a poor analysis in the updates. But Foreign Policy is a front-line website for the Washington networks, so assertions like these can be read by US officials and journalists as the "hot intelligence" on Iran.)

0844 GMT: Mousavi's New Year. Mir Hossein Mousavi has already set down a marker for "a year of patience and steadfastness" in his speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Now he and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, announce they are putting out a video message, addressed to the people of Iran, for the Nowruz (the Iranian New Year).

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Saeed Nourmohammadi, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on bail.

0830 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at last night's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations. There are two videos with different visions of the evening, and we have an analysis: "Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration....Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political."

Comments

[ramin]

I think 'perseverance' would be a better translation than 'resistance'.

[AJ]

I got this email from Rakhshan Bani-Etemad, one of the leading filmmakers in Iran and an a supporter of the Green Movement and an advocate of women's rights. My translation below:

روز ۲۵ اسفند ماه، خبری در رسانه‌ها منتشر شده مبنی براین که جهانگیر کوثری و رخشان بنی اعتماد با رحیم مشایی دیدار کرده اند

در دوران هتک حریم و حرمت‌ها ،و توهم و دروغ ، چنین بی‌ اخلاقی‌ رسانه ای امری عادی تلقی‌ میشود؛ اما از آن جا که پخش این

خبر جعلی بی‌ دلیل نمی تواند باشد و پیگیری آن در شرایط موجود بی‌ نتیجه است ، به صرف احترام به اذهان عمومی این خبر را از

اساس تکذیب می‌‌کنیم.

رخشان بنی اعتماد- جهانگیر کوثری

۱۳۸۸/۱۲/۲۵

On March 16 certain news organizations have reported that Rakhshan Bani-Etemad and Jahangir Kosari [her husband, a famous sports caster and film producer] have met with Rahim Mashayi. In the age of desecration, paranoia and lies, such misbehaviour by the media is expected. But since publishing such false news is not without its reasons and following up on it is pointless, and as a means to respect public opinion, we strongly deny this news report.

Rakhshan Bani-Etemad and Jahangir Kosari

25 Esfand 1388 (March 16, 2010)

[Moandor]

I second Ramin here. Mousavi has used the word "Esteghamat" which would be "perseverance", or "endurance" in English. To give an example, a marathon is called "doye esteghamat" ("endurance run", literally) in Iran. "Resistance" is a bit of a stretch, as it connotes a retarding or opposing force. For that he would have said "moghavemat" maybe.

[Scott Lucas]

Thanks to all on the translation issue of Mousavi's speech. I am now using "perseverance" rather than "resistance".

S.

[danial]

@Scott Lucas...

I'm coming across of a lot of reports that the US is shipping bunker-buster bombs south of India for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

heres one link:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3863920,00.html

I haven't come across anything from more prominent media though

what do you think professor?

[Scott Lucas]

Danial,

I have seen the immediate source of this, which is a report in a Scottish paper The Herald, and months ago, there was some chatter in US papers (The Wall Street Journal, I think). I have not posted for this reason:

This is an unsupported exaggeration of a logical US military step. The American military wishes to have "force projection" in the Persian Gulf. Part of this force projection is having the most powerful of weapons in the area.

The optimal US position is having bases in Iraq. But if that is not possible, then a position such as Diego Garcia becomes essential for the US presence.

That is a far from weak policy but it does not constitute preparations for an attack on Iran.

S.

[danial]

Thanks for the quick response professor.

so the US govt. is intimidating Iranian govt., wouldn't it make sense if mainstream media reported this?

PressTV picked the story too...
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=120910&sectionid=351020101

this is the headline: "Diego Garcia bunker-busters meant to threaten Iran"

[Catherine]

'We really want to do a deal' watch
Here's Iran's latest offer on the low enriched for 20% enriched uranium swap:

TEHRAN (AFP) – Iran offered on Tuesday a one-shot nuclear fuel exchange on its own soil, edging closer to the conditions of a plan drawn up by the UN atomic watchdog last year as major powers mulled a new round of sanctions.

Iran's atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi revealed the new offer in an interview with hardline daily Jawan, signalling a major change in Tehran's longstanding position on the nuclear fuel plan first drafted last October.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100317/wl_mideast_afp/irannuclearpolitics_20100317090943

[herbalecstacy]

Hi, we found this here after a quick google search. Neat website you have here! Keep it up!

[Arshama]

@ Celebration

Somewhere I read that most Iranian muslims are firstly, secondly and thirdly Iranians -- quod erat demonstrandum ;-)
The same sensitivity applies to the cherished satellite dishes, simply called "dish" in Persian, a matter of constant battle with the regime, as shown by this funny clip from 2007: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtgMNDuunUY

[gunni]

Scott

"That is a far from weak policy but it does not constitute preparations for an attack on Iran"
Our from everybody highly estimated Major General from yesterday was openly wondering some weeks ago, why there are more than 60 US vessels in the "Persian Gulf ". If this vessels could be counted by the major (maybe he had some help)
we can imagine, what is "hidden" under the blue waters of the gulf. I agree not to see it as nasty "Preparations" - but seeing this measures you called "far from weak policy" may help to understand the fears and the military arrangments of the Regime.

[Scott Lucas]

Gunni,

I should clarify --- I don't see this as part of preparations for an attack on Iran, but it certainly can be perceived this way, especially when news reports are incomplete and lack context. So, yes, Iranian officials 1) may be genuinely fearful 2) may use this to whip up fear and thus support for their "defensive" measures.

S.

[Adam]

I think people inside and outside Iran understand that Ahmadinejad's outrageous rhetoric and Khamenei's murderous tendencies toward his own people are what make an attack on Iran's nuclear program likely. A leadership in Iran that was pragmatic and popular at home would be able to resolve this issue quite easily with the Obama administration.

[danial]

from reuters...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62G32P20100317?feedType=RSS&feedName=Iran&virtualBrandChannel=10209

Headline:
"U.S. urges ally Turkey to join Iran sanctions push"

Its seems that the US govt. is blackmailing Turkey into taking agreeing on sanctions

read:
"U.S.-Turkey relations were strong despite a row over a resolution by U.S. lawmakers branding the 1915-era killings of Armenians by Turkish forces as "genocide." "

I imagine if Turkey refuses, they too will be antagonized.

[danial]

the US govt. should really reconsider what their doing diplomatically.

[danial]

I think of all the efforts made by the US govt. to garner support, this was the worst move.

Turkey was and still is the best mediator between the "west" and the middle east.

[Observer]

S Lucas, Gunni, Danial,

Regarding 'US preparation for attack,' please see an article linked below that documents the original article's sole source, described as a sort of a 'cry wolf' fellow with excerpts from his previous warnings over the last few years. Perhaps one of you can comment of this dissenting article's author.

Commentary: "Is the U.S. Preparing to Bomb Iran? Check the Source First" - http://bit.ly/cjaJqA

[Rev. Magdalen]

Regarding the bunker-buster shipment to Diego Garcia Island in the British Indian Ocean Territory: I suggest everyone put those terms into Google maps and actually take a look at what the situation physically looks like in terms of geography. Take into account American positions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Look at where Iran's allies are situated. Geography really is everything, especially when it comes to ballistic missiles and airplane flights.

Some analysts have previously insisted there is no way the United States could attack Iran because Syria or Turkey or whoever wouldn't give the US flyover rights. Well, you don't need flyover rights if you're launching from Diego Garcia; it's a straight shot across the ocean to Tehran, Qom, Shiraz and more. Moving these missiles to this island significantly changes the equation of the feasibility of the US attacking Iran, and any significant change like that is important to consider fully.

Does this mean the US is more likely to actually attack Iran? No, but it does mean that the IRI now knows that the United States really COULD just simply send a missile straight to the Qom nuke facility and there would be nothing whatsoever that Iran's allies could do about it, and there would be no warning. In terms of the carrot and the stick, this is like raising the stick above your head, a signal that yes, this stick is not a prop, it is real and it is prepared to come down hard.

I think the intent is to convince the Regime that Obama is not weak, and is fully prepared to back up what he says. When he says the steps are negotiation->sanctions->war, he wants the IRI to know that they do NOT want the war part.

I have noticed a lot of bluster from Iranian military officials claiming that they actually think they could somehow withstand an American attack, even give the USA a "punch in the mouth" or something. Ambassador Hunter at the NIAC conference suggested that what needs to happen is for Tehran to realize that that is a complete fantasy. Iran is not in a position to defend itself from an American attack, and they need to realize that. Is that fascistic and unfair? Yes. Is that how America rolls? Absolutely. This is the reality we're working with, much as we might like it to be otherwise.

I think it's wonderful that the media has picked up the story of Chahrshanbeh Suri, signaling that the bunker-busters are not the whole story. America is also watching the Greens. I think everyone in US media was very impressed by the fire festival once they understood that Khamenei had written a fatwa against it, which has allegedly disappeared from his website in Orwellian fashion! The rumors of the death of the Green Movement have been greatly exaggerated, and now they're the darling comeback kids of the media again. This is very good because every news story that humanizes Iranians drives back the propaganda of the war hawks.

So basically, I would say the IRI regime has every reason to be concerned about this warhead shipment, but the Green should take heart that America has not forgotten them, and Petraeus's recent statements seem to indicate that the Greens have at least a year to win their freedom, barring any unforeseen provocative craziness by their leaders.

[Adam]

@1910 Well it looks like AN will not disappoint. Now we will see what happens as an unelected, illegitimate government tries to demand economic sacrifice from the general population.

[Rev. Magdalen]

Observer, you make a good point that the person who publicized the weapons shipment has previously predicted war with Iran at least four times in the past five years, and thus is probably being sensationalistic in his interpretation of the shipment, but it's still true that these bunker-busters were specifically stepped up in production in reaction to the disclosure of the Qom plant, and so moving them into striking range of Iran really is meant to be a threat to the IRI.

I think the author is wrong once again, and there will be no war, but I'm glad he apparently obsessively reads ship manifests looking for info about warhead shipments, so we can have that data.

[Rev. Magdalen]

Observer, you made me think of another thing too: Obama could have made a big deal about moving these warheads, really talked it up back home, and won huuuuge points with the conservatives who want him to "act tougher on Iran," but he didn't. An Iran-obsessed journalist had to find out about it by reading shipping manifests. To me that's the biggest signal of all that Obama is not trying to get into a war with Iran. If he wanted to go to war he would rally the American people behind him and make a big show of positioning these massive American rockets, proud and erect, ready to bring shock and awe to the enemy.

Obama didn't do that. He gave up the chance to score political points by keeping this shipment low-key. This shipment wasn't hidden, it's plainly listed on the ship's manifests, but it's meant to be a little secret just between Obama and the IRI Regime, who of course would notice the arrival of several hundred bunker-busters off their shore even if no newspaper ever wrote about it. To me, that says that Obama is trying his hardest to avoid war, although he's preparing for it in case it happens.

Me, I like that in a president. ;-)

[ange paris]

My dear Rev
I like so much your analysis (post 18); perhaps our destiny is as bright as the release of my baby dove !

[ange paris]

If you want to see the short video on the bunker-buster, look at the link below, it's an article on possible attack of the USA on Iran, anyhow they are ready !

http://lessakele.over-blog.fr/article-etats-unis-des-munitions-embarquees-en-cas-de-frappes-sur-l-iran-46865860.html

[danial]

@Rev

"Obama could have made a big deal about moving these warheads, really talked it up back home, and won huuuuge points with the conservatives who want him to “act tougher on Iran,” but he didn’t."

heres some reason why he didn't:

economic situation, debt increasing by the day (loans from china, how about that)
death toll from Iran & Afghanistan war

heh, where would the US govt. get the nerve to tell the public that they are drafting more young soldiers, didn't Obama promise to end Bush's war?

The Chinese is maintaining its currency rate taking up more space in foreign federal reserves and the US federal reserve has to keep up with printing more fiat money, result = inflation.

Rev.Magdalen do you think their all too powerful but conversely compassionate?

[danial]

Another thing I want to point out...

Domestic incompetence of the Ahmadinejad office aside, I think if there is one thing that Iranians agree with this regime is that the US cannot be trusted.