The Latest from Iran (17 March): Celebration

2125 GMT: We Persist. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters, many of whose members have been detaineed, has issued a statement:

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters once again by maintaining the path that it has taken and by supporting other human rights organizations, emphasizes that it will continue its decisive activities in reporting human rights conditions on both national and international levels through collaborations with independent and credible international human rights organizations.

NEW Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, “Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger”, and Strikes
NEW Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?
NEW Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)
Iran Document: Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Resistance” (15 March)
Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Karroubi’s House (14 March)
Iran Breaking: Ban on Reformist Political Party
The Latest from Iran (16 March): Fire and Politics

2115 GMT: Karroubi's Big Line. Here's the stinger statement from Mehdi Karroubi as he addressed the (banned) Islamic Iran Participation Front: "Why is it that the justifications of the Shah for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming from you is to be considered right?"


1945  GMT: Political Prisoner News. Documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof, who was arrested in the raid on director Jafar Panahi's house, has been released. Panahi is the only person from the incident who remains in detention.

1915 GMT: Picture of the Day. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, on his release from detention:



1910 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran has cut the cheap petrol ration by 25% to 60 litres per vehicle per month from 21 March. Currently, each vehicle is allowed a quota of 80 litres of fuel at 10 cents a litre, with any amount needed on top of that priced at 40 cents.

Now is the move part of President Ahmadinejad's subsidies reduction plan or a response to tightening fuel supplies with the prospect of reduced imports? Or both?

1900 GMT: Labour News. We've posted an interview with Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, about the minimum wage, inflation, and the prospect of "poverty and hunger" for Iran's labourers.

1745 GMT: Reformist Relay. Once again, prominent opposition figures are putting out a series of statements. There is Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mehdi Karroubi's "Let Us Rally" statement (see 1600 GMT), and Mohammad Khatami's address to members of the Islamic associations of Tehran universities.

Khatami insisted that the government "does not have the right to defy the constitution" and declare that its opponents are "adversaries of the regime". He asked the Iranian judiciary, "How is it that baseless accusations against some people are pursued fiercely by the judiciary whilst deviant groups are free to insult and slander any Shiite leader they might dislike?"

Khatami emphasized that the establishment can resolve problems by releasing political prisoners and upholding liberties that are the people's legal right.

1600 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The Facebook site that supports Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a statement from Mehdi Karroubi, "Let Us Hold a Rally".

1345 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The reformist Parleman News declares "One Step Forward" for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his political manoeuvres.

1245 GMT: I'm Not Sure You Get It, Dude. At a news conference, Minister of Oil Masoud Mir Kazemi has warned that Tehran will blacklist companies which stop their gasoline exports to the country.

With respect, Mr Kazemi, I think the point here is not that you might blacklist them but that they are blacklisting you (since Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of gasoline). As Khabar Online, which carries the report, notes, "It's not clear how Iranian government is to punish the companies which cut off gasoline delivery to the country."

1235 GMT: Another Death Sentence. Amidst chatter, some of it from the regime, about capital punishments, the International Committee for Human Rights in Iran claims a confirmed case. Abdolreza Ghanbari, accused of "mohareb" (war against God) for participation in Ashura protests, has been sentenced to death.

1230 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (2). The wife of Mostafa Tajzadeh. former Deputy Minister of Interior and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has declared that he "will talk to the people on a convenient occasion". Tajzadeh was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.

1210 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (1). The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has issued a statement: Ahmadinejad has erased freedom and taken the bread from people's tables.

1205 GMT: Etemaad To Re-Open (at a Cost)? Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a "bail" (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year.

1025 GMT: Happy New Year, "Rioters". Under the heading of not-very-surprising news, Press TV reports:

Sentences have been handed down to 86 detainees of Tehran's Western-led post-election unrests on charges that include taking part in illegal riots and disrupting public order....
According to the statement, the sentences were issued for charges such as "conspiring against national security, spreading propaganda against the establishment, membership in hostile and anti-Revolutionary groups, taking part in illegal gatherings, and disrupting public order."

0848 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A poor attempt at analysis, simplifying a complex politician, in Foreign Policy. The magazine headlines a piece by Genevieve Abdo, a front-line writer on Iranian politics, "Iran's most independent politician finally casts his lot with the hard-liners."

There's a huge difference between giving support to the Supreme Leader, which Rafsanjani has clearly set out in recent months, and giving support to the Government. Abdo's evidence for the latter consists of this: Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad were both at a celebration on 4 March of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

Hmm.... Might want to set this against the steady sniping at the Government from Rafsanjani allies like Hassan Rohani. And it might be useful to speak with someone in the opposition before telling readers:

The green movement is taking Rafsanjani's return to the fold as a setback. With his independent voice now subsumed into the hard-line camp, there is no doubt this development will lead him to curtail his recent criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

(Normally I wouldn't put such a poor analysis in the updates. But Foreign Policy is a front-line website for the Washington networks, so assertions like these can be read by US officials and journalists as the "hot intelligence" on Iran.)

0844 GMT: Mousavi's New Year. Mir Hossein Mousavi has already set down a marker for "a year of patience and steadfastness" in his speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Now he and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, announce they are putting out a video message, addressed to the people of Iran, for the Nowruz (the Iranian New Year).

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Saeed Nourmohammadi, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on bail.

0830 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at last night's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations. There are two videos with different visions of the evening, and we have an analysis: "Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration....Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political."

Comments

[danial]

sorry I didn't make my point...

Iranians still want their nuclear facilities intact and a strike on Iran whatever the intent maybe is going to harm prospects of good outcome from this situation, both for Iranians and the west.

[Adam]

Danial,

As I've said before, I think it is quite clear to everyone inside and outside Iran that it is Ahmadinejad's genocidal rhetoric and Khamenei's murder of his own people to prevent any political change or progress that is leading Iran on a collision course with the international community (and as opposed to Bush, Obama truly is leading the international community on this). I don't think there is any credible claim that Obama is the war monger here. As long as Khamenei is in undisputed control of Iran's armed forces and nuclear program, Obama has to do what is in the interests of National and International Security. To say that a strike on Iran's nuclear sites would unite the people behind AN/Khamenei is disingenuous.

[danial]

@Adam...

I was responding to Rev.Magdalen's claim that the Obama "gave up the chance to score political points by keeping this shipment low-key.".

[Barry]

@REV MAGDALEN

"Some analysts have previously insisted there is no way the United States could attack Iran because Syria or Turkey or whoever wouldn’t give the US flyover rights."

I think that this thought was more aimed at a possible Israeli strike against Iran. From my perspective, there has never been any doubt that the US could strike from any direction anytime they liked.

I don't think this report about the movement of "bunker busting bombs" is any kind of big deal at all. Firstly because it may not even be true. It is nice to see some recognition here that much/nearly all news reports are unsubstantiated. Secondly, the US Armed Forces has for decades had substantial weaponry ready all over the world ready to go at a moments notice, for whatever situation.. This can be anything from Nuclear armed submarines to aircraft carriers operating 24/7 to supplies and aircraft stationed at Diego Garcia - have a look at Google Maps to see the aircraft on the ground. These are not there for Iran alone.

Barry

[Barry]

@DANIEL

I think you really underestimate the Americans. You are right in one matter - the Americans have gotten themselves into a bit of an economic mess right now. There are many reasons for this,one of which is that they have become so materialistic and want to buy as many cheap trinkets from China as they can. You may think that China is a great rising power - but they are also desperate for America (and the rest of the Western world) to continue buying their trinkets. If the buying of trinkets stops, then we shall see what happens to China - socially, they are a time bomb just waiting to go off. 1200 million people is a lot of people to control - and before the advent of modern day communications/TV, they knew no better than the life they lived - today they can see what the the western world has , and they want it too!!

But back to America - the last time they got themselves into financial trouble was in 1929 - right through the decade of the '30s. BUT - this did not stop them from developing a mighty economic and military empire when they both had the will to do it and then actually did it. Today, they have become fat and soft - but if something causes them to call up the willpower of the 40's again, then watch out.

Barry

[Adam]

Mousavi's Facebook page has just posted some posters along with what appears to be a map of routes through Tehran. It has gotten a staggering number of hits even though it was just posted half an hour ago. It is all in farsi and I do not know farsi, but my guess is it is a protest being organized on short notice. Can someone translate?

[danial]

@Adam

translation of mousavi page...

Chaharshanbe Suri (Wednesday/fire festival): remembering celebration of light over darkness

Thursday: remembering the martyrs of the movement at Beheshte Zahra (graveyard)

After commencement of new year: Allah Akbar !

on new year's eve the nation will speak

route of the movement: view map

[Rev. Magdalen]

Ange Paris, God willing, it will be so! Seems like such a beautiful bright future for Iran is waiting just behind a curtain, so much creativity and passion could be a wonderful part of the wider world community!

[Rev. Magdalen]

Danial you are correct and it's a great observation that Obama's base, his own supporters, would be furious if he were to take the country to war, but the people in the party that opposes Obama have been criticizing him for "looking weak to Iran", and so by publicizing this movement of warheads, he could have shut up their criticism and maybe even won some votes from that side.

Obama's hardcore opposition would be hugely happy if he actually did go to war, because their elites make money off arms sales and their regular members believe strongly the IRI is an evil regime that just ought to be removed as soon as possible by anybody who can, no matter the "collateral damage" or cost. It would definitely cause some people to swing over to voting for Obama in the coming election, even if it devastated the economy.

Obama's own hardcore base will never, ever vote for the other party no matter how badly he screws up, so he kind of has some leeway with them to do things they don't like; as long as no viable third party shows up they're basically stuck with him because the other guys are unthinkably bad to them.

It's the swing voters who count, so any of them that went with the opposition last time would probably swing to Obama were he to start this war. But he doesn't need their votes and he's not willing to trump up reasons to go to war just for profit or ego or something, so I think there's no reason to assume any strike is imminent.

[danial]

post 2115gmt...

stinger statement indeed:
"Karroubi asked why were there no criticisms against BBC when it was "assisting the Revolution?" "

Ouch!

[Jack]

"Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a “bail” (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year."

I am betting on $100,000. Any takers?

[Arshama]

Jack,

You won! It is $100,000 indeed. (Some EA-contributors will always remain bad in math, sigh ;-)

Speaking of millions: Here is a short film of AN's last week's visit to Bandar Abbas. Just look at the crowds! http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=14635

[Bill]

What I find funny about the article about the bunker busters was the fact the base was already loaded with them. For goodness sake what do you think the bombers were dropping on the caves in Afghanistan. Least off all lets not forget most of the carriers have these type of bombs as well---and here is the kicker--they are already in the Persian Gulf.

[Bill]

Arshama,

Priceless video!!!! :) Reminds of earlier rallies in which the videos showed people sleeping during his speach!!

Thx
Bill

[Barry]

@Bill

A percentage of those small number running alongside Ahmadinejads vehicle were small children.

Barry

[Bill]

Barry,

I did catch that!! Wonder if they were hoping for some free potatoes!!!! :)

thx
bill

[Arshama]

Bill (#38),

Thanks for mentioning the case of Afghanistan! Four or five years ago an Iran-Iraq war veteran told me that the bunker busters of these carriers can hit their targets within Iran with a deviation of about 1 m, and he should know it. The IRI is in fact surrounded by nukes, and such news are only meant as a little distraction ;-)

Happy Nowrouz to all of you!

Arshama

[Bill]

Arshama,

This story about the bunker busters is just another spasm coming out of the to liberal left that despise the West. The irony is these nitwits in the left often hold hands with the world's worst because they are so blinded by their hate for their own country. One wonders if they ever had the opportunity to go live in Iran--maybe then they might change their views. I often point out to them they are free to ply their trade in the West but in Iran they would most likely be in Evin prison. But alas until then the conspiracy theories will continue to be put out at break neck speed and the regime will use them to deflect from their oppression of the people of Iran. What short sighted people!!!!

Thx
Bill

[Arshama]

Bill,

I should have added that this so-called "liberal left" was living in Southern Iran at that time, then and now much devoted to his country. I wonder, if you ever have been at the front?

Arshama

[Bill]

Arshama,

Your post is a bit cryptic. My reference was towards the too liberal left in the US not Iran. One example is Foreign Policy Journal who put out articles like "Why I like PressTV" a couple months after the election. I wrote a long response and the basic response was it was all the fault of the US for the unrest in Iran. Simply put I was expressing my distate with a group of people in the US that will hold hands with the worlds worst dictators in their efforts to wreck the US they hate. In their minds it is the US who is at fault for everything. I in no way was attacking the legit left in the US and for the matter the left in Iran fighting for the rights of the Iranian people. We all know what happened to left in Iran after the revolution won--the served their purpose and the regime liquidated them simply because they opposed a theocracy. As for "being at the front" I am not sure what your getting at? I hope this explains my position better.

Thx
Bill

[Arshama]

Hi Bill,

Sorry, but I got you completely wrong ;-)
The too liberal left is not only a problem in the USA, but also in Iran and in exile. Even though both of them do not support the regime, I am really fed up with their mantra of putting the blame for everything that has gone wrong in our country on US interventions. I do not intend to minimize the disastrous effects of the 1953 CIA putsch, but repeating them does not help to overcome the actual crisis -- after all that happened 57 years ago!
Sometimes it gives me the impression, as if these people are frozen in time, still incapable of recognizing that the East-West antagonism is mostly overcome, or perhaps unwilling to do so. Referring constantly to this remote incident is obviously the only excuse left over to them to oppose any normalization of mutual relationships. Unfortunately most Iranian politicians continue to think in such stereotypes. What we need most in Iran is a pragmatic attitude towards solving problems of foreign policy.

"At the front" means that my Iranian friend was really in the field during the Iran-Iraq war to defend our country, otherwise he is not a military man at all.

Thank you for your helpful explanations of the 'other' (American) side, I always appreciate to learn more about what is going on in your country.

Peace :-)
Arshama