Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell Arrives, East Jerusalem Protests, Hamas's Shrinking Power?

Mitchell in the Region: On Saturday, U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Tel Aviv. He will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday.

Before any formal shaking of hands, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas escalated the rhetoric. In contrast to his acceptance of four months of "proximity talks",  Abbas said that "the peace process has almost reached a dead end" because Netanyahu has refused to stand by compromise offers made by his predecessor. Abbas continued:

UN’s Top Gaza Official: “Israel Creating Generation of People Nourished on Despair”

Despite a temporary, partial freeze on building in the West Bank, the expansion of Israeli settlements, as well as an Israeli heritage plan announced last month to include West Bank religious sites threaten ... to open the door to a dark future that awaits us all.


The Israeli government continues to procrastinate to gain time and strengthen its control of the occupied territories to prevent any realistic possibility of establishing an independent, viable ... state of Palestine.

In response, Netanyahu not only dismissed calls for Israel to give up control of all of Jerusalem, but he said that an early deal for a Palestinian state is unlikely, given the strength of Abbas' rivals in Hamas.

Demonstrations in East Jerusalem: About 5,000 left-wing activists and Palestinians gathered Saturday to protest the eviction of four Palestinian families in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem. The demonstration was peaceful. Protesters carried Palestinian flags and chanted "Stop the destruction of homes" and "There is no sanctity in an occupied city."

Hamas Losing Control?: According to the London-based newspaper A-Sharq Al-Awsat, Hamas's senior military commander Ahmed Jabri has admitted losing control in Gaza in a letter to Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal. He said that "recently a series of explosions has raised fears in Gaza" and "Gaza had descended into anarchy".

Jabri allegedly claims Hamas is convinced that extremist "jihadi" Islamist movements are behind the bombings.

Haaretz's Middle East Security Survey adds:

The recent calm on the Israel-Gaza border could be deceiving. Hamas is not firing rockets into Israel and is also preventing more radical groups from launching rockets. At the same time, Hamas is coping with the domestic threat posed by radical groups that identify with Al-Qaida. Recent reports from Gaza indicate that these groups are getting stronger, at the expense of Hamas.

It is possible that Israel, which until now has viewed Hamas as its biggest enemy in Gaza, needs to take into account that within a couple of years Hamas will be the moderate force in Gaza protecting the calm while a monstrous and more dangerous threat is growing in the form of the ultra-radical groups.

Israel-Syria: The War of Words Continues...

Responding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration that he was prepared to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad immediately and without preconditions, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem told the pan-Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat that Israel must first declare its intention to withdraw to the 1967 borders before any Syrian-Israeli talks can take place.

Israel-Syria Dialogues: Hopes vs. Realities

The Syrian foreign minister said that there is no point in "putting the cart before the horse" and that "Israel must withdraw from the occupied territories before Syria and Israel can meet".

Despite the exchange of threats between Damascus and West Jerusalem last month and the trilateral meeting of Hezbollah's Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Assad in Syria on 25 February, Israel's training exercise "Firestones 12", which took place in northern Israel last week, conspicuously omitted simulations of war with Syria. Instead, the Israel Defense Forces fought mock battles in preparation for clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The army also cancelled emergency call-up drills for large numbers of regular forces and reserves, fearing Syria might mistake such a move as mobilization for war.

But in line with Haaretz's Gideon Levy's article "Israel Does Not Want Peace," it can be said that Israel seeks no talks to resolve the problem; instead, it suspends this possibility while never missing any chance of upholding Damascus's hostility. At the end of the day, Syria is bound to play the "bad guy" for Israeli officials, isn't it?

Israel-Syria Dialogues: Hopes vs. Realities

Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, who served in the CIA, the National Security Council and the State Department during the Clinton and Bush administrations, declare on their website that Syrian President Bashar Assad told them two weeks ago that the U.S. policy in the Middle East has been wrong for the past decade and has created a vacuum that improved the regional strategic standing for Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Meanwhile, following Haaretz's report that Syria was prepared to make "gradual peace," the Israeli Prime Minister's Bureau said Wednesday that Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to meet with the Syrians immediately and without preconditions.

Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy responds: "Israel Does Not Want Peace":

Israel does not want peace with Syria. Let's take off all the masks we've been hiding behind and tell the truth for a change. Let's admit that there's no formula that suits us, except the ludicrous "peace for peace." Let's admit it to ourselves, at least, that we do not want to leave the Golan Heights, no matter what. Forget about all the palaver, all the mediations, all the efforts.

Let's face it, we don't want peace, we want to run wild, to paraphrase an Israeli pop song from the '70s. Don't bother us with new Syrian proposals, like the one published in Haaretz this week that calls for a phased withdrawal and peace in stages; don't pester us with talk about peace as a way to break up the dangerous link between Syria and Iran; don't tell us peace with Syria is the key to forging peace with Lebanon and weakening Hezbollah. Turkey isn't an "honest" broker, the Syrians are part of the axis of evil, all is quiet on the Golan - you know how much we love the place, its mineral waters, its wines - so who needs all the commotion of demonstrations and evacuating settlements, just for peace?

It's not only the current extreme right-wing government that doesn't want this whole headache, and it wasn't only all of its predecessors - some of which were on the very brink of withdrawing from the Golan and only at the last moment, the very last moment, changed their minds. It's all the Israelis - the minority that is really against it and the majority that doesn't give a damn. They'd rather pretend not to hear the encouraging sounds coming out of Damascus in recent months and not even try to put them to the test.

Everyone would rather wave the menacing picture of Bashar Assad alongside Hassan Nasrallah and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his partners in the axis of evil, with the hummus and the bulgur. That on its own should have made Israel try 10 times harder to make peace. But in Israeli eyes, the picture of the banquet, as one Israeli paper termed the "modest meal," is worth more than a thousand words. After that, do you really expect us to give up the Golan? Don't make us laugh. We'll make peace with Micronesia, not Syria.

When the Syrians talk peace, it is all "empty words," "deception" and a wily way of getting closer to the United States. But when Assad poses with the president of Iran, that's the truth, that's Syria's real face. Even when he merely says, on the same occasion, that Syria must prepare for an Israeli attack, he is immediately accused of "threatening" Israel.

Do you want proof that we really don't want peace with Syria? Well, there has not yet been one Israeli prime minister who has said that we do. Because, after all, the order would have to be the opposite of the usual Israeli haggling. A prime minister who really wanted to achieve peace would have to say one terribly simple thing: We undertake in advance - yes, in advance - to hand back the entire Golan in exchange for a full peace. But no, not one prime minister has declared readiness to leave the Golan - right up to the last grain of sand, as we did in Sinai - in exchange for a peace like that which we have with Egypt.

Why on earth do we always have to hold onto this card so it can be played last? And what kind of a card is it, anyway? What kind of end does it ensure? After all, if the Syrian reply is negative, nobody will make us leave the Golan Heights. And what if the reply is positive? Why not start off with a promising, invigorating declaration, one that will give the Syrians hope and thereby at least put their intentions to the test.

But we are not the only ones who don't want peace. The United States has turned out to be a true friend that extricates us from every briar patch. It doesn't want peace enough either, praise the Lord. It's a fact: Washington is applying no pressure. Here's another marvelous pretext for doing nothing - America isn't pressing us and the redeemer will come to Zion, in the words of the prophet Isaiah. Yet we are the ones who have to stay in the dangerous and menacing Middle East, not the Americans; we should be more interested than anyone in preventing another war in the north, in creating a new relationship with Syria and then with Lebanon, and in weakening Iranian influence; in trying to integrate, at last. An Israeli interest, no? And what do we do to advance it? Half of nothing.

So what is there left to do? At least admit the truth: We do not want peace with Syria. That's all there is to it.

Middle East Inside Line: Palestine-Israel Dialogue?; Britain & Arrest Warrants for Israelis; China & Iran

Indirect Israel-Palestine Dialogue: On Wednesday, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, found political cover to enter into an indirect dialogue with Israel, as 14 ministers of the Arab League agreed in Cairo that the PA should engage in indirect negotiations with Israel for a preliminary four-month period. The Arab ministers also mentioned that no progress will be possible without a complete settlement freeze, indicating that the four months will be an assessment process.

"Despite the lack of conviction in the seriousness of the Israeli side, the committee sees that it would give the indirect talks the chance as a last attempt and to facilitate the US role," said Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_PNUq8uM_c[/youtube]



Following the news from Cairo, a senior U.S. official said that special envoy for the Middle East George Mitchell will travel to the region over the weekend to see if Israel and the Palestinians are ready to begin indirect peace talks. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added: "We were very pleased by the endorsement that came out of Cairo today. (We) are very committed to try to bring about the two-state solution and we hope the proximity talks will be the beginning of that process."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the decision of the Arab league and said:

It seems that the conditions are ripening for the renewal of negotiations between us and the Palestinians.

In the Middle East you need two to tango, but it could be that we need three to tango and we might need to leapfrog at first but the obstacle isn't and never was Israel.

On Thursday, Haaretz learned that Mitchell will land in Israel on Saturday night and both parties will declare the beginning of indirect talks on Monday, as US Vice President Joe Biden arrives.

However, Haaretz reports that Israeli President Shimon Peres, in his private conversations with various political figures, has been saying that Netanyahu is restricted because of Israel's right wing in moving forward, so the Prime Minister should offer a good deal to the "centrist" Kadima opposition to join the coalition. In response, one of  associates said: "Even if [Avigdor] Lieberman is forced to resign, Bibi won't name a replacement as foreign minister."

Britain to Block Arrest Warrants Against Israel's Officials: On Thursday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced plans to stop politically-motivated campaign groups from securing arrest warrants for visiting foreign officials. Brown wrote in The Daily Telegraph: 

Britain will continue to take action to prosecute or extradite suspected war criminals - regardless of their status or power... But the process by which we take action must guarantee the best results. The only question for me is whether our purpose is best served by a process where an arrest warrant for the gravest crimes can be issued on the slightest of evidence.

A statement from the office of former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who faced a British warrant, said:

The British legal system has been abused by cynical elements in the United Kingdom. This is important news for every country in the Free World which is fighting terror.

China Reject Sanctions on Iran: Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gan said on Thursday, "We've been making diplomatic efforts and we believe they have not been exhausted, and we will continue to work with other parties to push for a settlement to this issue."

Middle East Inside Line: Netanyahu's Iran Speech, Obama's Next Middle East Message, Syrian-Israeli Peace?, and More...

Netanyahu's Iran Speech: Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Tuesday depicted Iran as a runaway train and the international community as a rail car waiting on the edge. "There is a technological clock and a diplomatic clock. The technological clock is like a runaway train and the international community like a car that is about to decouple."

On the diplomatic clock, Netanyahu mentioned the Israeli delegation in China and described a "wide range of mutual interests" between Beijing and Israel. Netanyahu stated that he was not successful in obtaining Moscow's consent to tougher sanctions on Tehran but said he witnessed "more understanding there regarding the dangers the Iranian nuclear program poses to us, to regional peace and world stability".

Obama Administration's Next Message to be in Israel: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is due in Israel on March 8, for a three-day visit that will also include the Palestinian Authority. An Israeli political source has told Haaretz that Biden would like "to make a speech that is important and significant for Israeli-American relations". The aims of this high-level visit to Israel are to ensure that Israel's response will be restricted with the diplomatic track and to give a strong "alliance" message to Israelis as President Obama gave in Turkey and Egypt last year.


Syrian-Israeli Agreement on Phased Withdrawal Plan?: Gabrielle Rifkind, the director of the Middle East Program at Oxford Research Group, told Haaretz via e-mail that Syria is willing to consider peace and gradual normalization with Israel. According to this plan, following an Israeli withdrawal from half the territory it holds on the Golan Heights, the two states would declare an end to the state of enmity between them as a first step.

Although Syrian officials insist on pressing ahead through Turkey's mediation, Rifkind emphasized the importance of Damascus in the region:

From a conflict resolution perspective, reaching out to Syria will involve bold steps, and experience would suggest that if Syria and Israel managed to establish an agreement on the Golan, the view from the leadership may be significantly different. There could be a potential role for Syria as a mediator between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah which could drastically improve the chances of a long-term truce - or even a permanent resolution - between these parties.

Hamas Disowns Yousef: After it was released that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of one of Hamas's founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, had worked for Israel's security service Shin Bet; Hamas Web sites published a letter saying the father disowned his son on Monday.

IDF Blacklisting Israelis?: It has been reported that the details of license plates of a number of left-wing activists during demonstrations at the villages of Bil'in and Na'alin were given to IDF by Israeli police. In the document entitled "Data of vehicles used by left-wing Israeli activists and anarchists to reach demonstrations in Na'alin and Bil'in", registration numbers of 11 vehicles are listed. The IDF did not deny the report and said the organization is using information on Israelis who demonstrate against the separation fence.

Hamas Accuses Egypt & Jordan: Hamas has reportedly claimed that the security forces of an Arab state were behind the assassination of a senior group operative in Dubai. Mahmoud Nasser, a member of Hamas' political bureau, said that agents from Jordan and Egypt took part in the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.