Israel-US Analysis: After Washington, What Will Netanyahu Do?

It's not only the high-level US-Israel meetings in Washington that were divisive. The follow-up statements also clash.

On Thursday, President Obama’s spokesman Robert Gibbs said: “I think we’re making progress on important issues. But nothing more on substance to report than that.”

Israel: So What is This Government Crisis? (Carlstrom)

In contrast, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to Israel, his spokesman Nir Hefez told Army Radio that Netanyahu had reached a “list of understandings” on policy toward Palestinians, albeit "with additional points still in disagreement between the sides” in Washington. Hafez added:

There are several steps that the Americans would like to see Israel take in order to restart the peace process. We returned from the US with the understanding that on one hand, the construction policy in Jerusalem will remain unchanged, and on the other hand, Israel is prepared to make gestures in order to resume the peace process.

Despite the fact that Netanyahu gave no concessions on Jerusalem, Obama's timeline seems to be explicit: Washington wants tangible change to bring to the Arab League meeting on Saturday.

What are these "demands"? According to The Jerusalem Post, the Obama Administration asked Israel to commit to some limits on building in east Jerusalem; to show a willingness to deal with the so-called "core" issues of borders, refugees, and Jerusalem in the indirect talks; and to agree to a number of confidence-building measures, including the release of hundreds of Fatah prisoners. It is also reported that the administration asked for a commitment to extend the moratorium on housing starts in the West Bank settlements beyond the 10 months originally declared by Netanyahu.

In response, the Israeli Prime Minister asked for extra time to convene his seven-member inner cabinet ministers on Friday to discuss the US demands. According to Israeli senior officials, Netanyahu did not commit himself to a prisoner release and was bringing the matter to the security establishment in Israel for their consideration.

Netanyahu said that he is supporting construction in Jerusalem on his own accord and not because coalition partners are pressuring him to do so: "I do not need coalition partners to pressure me into continuing to build in Jerusalem. I, myself, plan to continue building in Jerusalem as all previous prime ministers did before me."

Sources close to the Prime Minister say that Netanyahu will intensify efforts to draw Kadima members of the Knesset into his Government. In response to this, senior sources in Kadima told Haaretz:

If Benjamin Netanyahu wants us in the coalition, he needs to alter its makeup, break up his extremist government, rebuild it with us. We will not enter a right-wing government and we will not join without an orderly political [peace negotiations] program.

So, what is Netanyahu's position now?

It appears that the Prime Minister is trying to convince his coalition members of additional "concessions" --- extending the moratorium on West Bank construction, delaying some settlements in East Jerusalem until the end of proximity talks, releasing hundreds of Fatah members, and transferring control of some areas in the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority --- in return for continuing other settlement constructions in East Jerusalem.

If Netanyahu succeeds, then his government will be able to claim "no more concessions" to Palestinian demands. If not, then he will have exhausted all efforts with his coalition members, setting the conditions to blame his partners and accepting Kadima's demand for a reconfigured Government.

But for all these calculations, Netanyahu still faces a cold reality: the man who couldn't get an answer in Washington, needs an answer in Israel from someone who will work with him.

Israel-US: Four Palestinians Killed as Netanyahu Goes to Washington

The death toll so far is four Palestinians. On Sunday, two farmers, who allegedly attacked Israeli soldiers with pitchforks near the West Bank city of Nablus, were shot dead. Earlier Sunday, a 19-year-old Palestinian died of wounds after he reportedly opened fire on Israel Defense Forces during a demonstration in the south of Nablus. On Saturday, a 16-year-old died after being hit in the heart by a rubber-coated bullet fired by Israeli troops.

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza is Boiling, Israel-Palestine Negotiations, Netanyahu to Washington

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leaving for Washington on Sunday night. Earlier Sunday, at his weekly Cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said that the policy on building in East Jerusalem has not changed in Israel's history and that he has informed the US administration of that in writing "Construction in Jerusalem is like construction in Tel Aviv and we have clarified that for the American government."



According to The Sunday Times, in return for his "promised gestures" towards Palestinians, Netanyahu will use a visit to Washington this week to press the U.S. to release advanced weapons, including sophisticated "bunker-buster" bombs needed to break through to Iran's nuclear enrichment installations, many of which are buried underground.

So, what are these "gestures?" Let's recall: suspending but not stopping the construction in East Jerusalem, the release of hundreds of Fatah-affiliated prisoners, the easing of the blockade on the Gaza Strip by allowing the UN to import construction materials, and discussing all core issues during the proximity talks, with the condition of reaching final conclusions only in direct talks with the Palestinian Authority. These are the "gestures" Netanyahu thinks that will bring a "stronger political and military relationship" with Washington.

We do not know what awaits Netanyahu in Washington but Edward Djerejian, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian affairs, offered recommendations to the Obama Administration and revived the question: Should Washington consider suspending its economic aid as leverage? He told Haaretz by phone:

When faced with a similar situation concerning Israeli settlement activity in 1991, President George H.W. Bush and secretary James A. Baker III stopped an additional $10 billion in housing loan guarantees to the Israeli government headed by Likud Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. The stakes are equally high today.

If the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are stalemated, the prospects for violence and instability in the region will be enhanced. The Obama administration should urge both the Israelis and the Palestinians to live up to their obligations in facilitating the onset of direct negotiations on the substantive issues. The sooner, the better.

Israel-Palestine: Gaza Rockets, Settlements, & Relations with Washington

Gaza Rocket Attack: After Gaza militants fired a Qassam rocket into the western Negev on Thursday, killing a Thai foreign worke, Israel's response was firm. Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said, "With or without Goldstone [Report on the Gaza War], Israel will defend its citizens. Today we see how absurd the Goldstone report was."

According to the Israeli Defense Forces, more than 100 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel since Operation Cast Lead ended in January 2009. Although Hamas did not take the responsibility, Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai declared the Palestianian organisation responsible. Deputy Premier Silvan Shalon vowed that "the Israeli response will be appropriate. It will be strong," adding, "This is a crossing of the red line, which Israel cannot accept."

Israel-Palestine Video: Biden’s Settlements Humour

The killing came an hour after the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, stepped into the Gaza Strip. She said:

I condemn any kind of violence, we have got to find a peaceful solution to the issues and problems.

I'm extremely shocked by the rocket attack and the tragic loss of life. I said when I came to Israel that part of the reason for my trip to this region is to express my concern that we move as quickly as we can to proximity talks.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon joined the condemnation, "All such acts of terror and violence against civilians are totally unacceptable and contrary to international law."

As for the planned construction of an extra 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Wednesday said that the demands of the United States and the international community are unreasonable: "This demand from the international community is mainly an opportunity to increase pressure on Israel and to demand unreasonable things."

On Thursday, Lieberman's Deputy Minister continued the official line, "We have never asked the permission of anyone to defend ourselves, and we will proceed in a similar fashion."

President Shimon Peres told EU policy chief Ashton that Israel reserved the right to build in Jerusalem, adding that its construction policy in the capital has not changed in 40 years.

Moreover, Israel's Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, in an opinion piece published by The New York Times on Thursday, argued that the construction in East Jerusalem is not Netanyahu's invention, as it has been pursued since 1967 within Washington's knowledge. He added:

We should not, however, allow peace efforts, or the America-Israel alliance, to be compromised by Israel's policy on Jerusalem.

Consistently, Israel has held that Jerusalem should remain its undivided capital and that both Jews and Arabs have the right to build anywhere in the city.

Amidst intense chatter of a rift between the US and Israel, President Barack Obama, in an interview with Fox News, said that there was no crisis in ties, despite the construction plan. Obama continued:

Israel is one of our closest allies, and we and the Israeli people have a special bond that's not going to go away.

But friends are going to disagree sometimes...

There is a disagreement in terms of how we can move this peace process forward.

The actions that were taken by the interior minister in Israel weren't helpful to that process. Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged as much and apologized for it.

This indicates that Netanyahu has probably responded to Washington's demands even before Wednesday. Late Thursday, Jerusalem had reportedly agreed to postpone the execution of the contentious Ramat Shlomo construction plan, while not canceling it altogether.

Haaretz says that, in a phone call between Netanyahu and Clinton, the Israeli PM reportedly conveyed a detailed list of gestures Jerusalem was willing to perform in order to restart negotiations with the Palestinians. These gestures allegedly include the release of Palestinian prisoners, the removal of West Bank checkpoints and perhaps even a willingness to transfer West Bank territories to PA control.

On Thursday, French news agency AFP reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated that peace with Israel was "impossible" as the government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not a real partner for talks. He called the construction plan of new East Jerusalem housing units as a "real obstacle," which would create "more wars and tension" in the entire region, adding that the Israeli government "cannot be considered a partner as long as it responds to calls for peace with settlements and the Judaization of (Muslim) holy sites."

Israel: Netanyahu Swims in Dangerous Waters

What is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trying to do? Is he pursuing clever tactics, trying to settle his coalition partners after question marks regarding the future of the government but then using that to reach agreement with Washington? Or is just stepping deeper into a political swamp?

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Haaretz claims it knows the demands made by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a telephone conversation with Netanyahu:

1. Investigate the process that led to the announcement of the Ramat Shlomo [Israeli settlement in East Jerusalem] construction plans in the middle of Biden's visit. The Americans seek an official response from Israel on whether this was a bureaucratic mistake or a deliberate act carried out for political reasons.

2. Reverse the decision by the Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee to approve construction of 1,600 new housing units in Ramat Shlomo.

3. Make a substantial gesture toward the Palestinians enabling the renewal of peace talks. The Americans suggested that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released, that the Israel Defense Forces withdraw from additional areas of the West Bank and transfer them to Palestinian control, that the siege of the Gaza Strip be eased, and that further roadblocks in the West Bank be removed.

4. Issue an official declaration that the talks with the Palestinians, even indirect talks, will deal with all the conflict's core issues: borders, refugees, Jerusalem, security arrangements, water, and settlements.

Netanyahu had already announced the convening of a committee to look into the settlements issue. On Monday, however, he answered a question from a Likud Party member with the declaration that construction would continue unabated. Then, in the Knesset, he signalled that there will be no "concession" in East Jerusalem:

For the past 40 years, no Israeli government ever limited construction in the neighborhoods of Jerusalem.

So, what is this all about? When  Israel's ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, declares that U.S.-Israeli relations face their worst crisis in 35 years, is he suggesting that West Jerusalem should compromise or that Washington should accept Netanyahu's defiance?

Amidst the turmoil, Washington is "hopeful" of the future of the "proximity talks". State Department official Philip J. Crowley said on Monday:

[Referring to indirect peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians] They have begun. I'm confident that there will be another round of proximity talks.

Palestine-Israel Update: Heavier Clouds Over the "Proximity Talks"

On Thursday, U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell spoke with Abbas and urged him not to walk away from indirect peace negotiations with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he believes indirect talks with the Palestinian Authority will continue as planned early next week despite the crisis. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley added:

I don't think that that report that's been circulating for the last 24 hours is accurate," Crowley said. "As far as I know, we are still moving forward. We have not heard from the Palestinians that they have pulled out.

Before US Vice President Joe Biden left for Jordan, he said in Tel Aviv University the US was interested in “putting everything back on the rails.” However, the Palestinian Authority’s chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat said that the PA would start the indirect talks “if Mitchell informs us that the Israeli plan has been canceled.

Following Biden's golden statement in Tel Aviv University, saying that the US has no other friend like Israel, in an interview with Haaretz, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Eli Yishai who authorized 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem emphasized the "unique relationship" with Washington. He said:

Our relationship with the Americans is above all else. It is an alliance that has survived complicated periods, and I had no intention of harming those ties, or to challenge the American administration, or to present obstacles to this important visit by the Vice President.

On Friday, with anticipation of renewed Jerusalem riots in response to a recent government decision to expand settlements in East Jerusalem, Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered Israeli Defense Forces to impose a general closure on the West Bank, preventing Palestinians from entering Israel. The West Bank will be sealed off for 48 hours.