So What's Happening In Iraq?

Almost three weeks after Iraq's national election, with the outcome still unclear, the BBC offers this summary:

The head of Iraq's election commission has ruled out a manual recount of all the votes in the country's parliamentary election.

This comes the day before overall election result is due to be released.

Commission head Faraj al-Haydari told the BBC that no political party has shown any evidence that such a recount was needed.


Supporters of incumbent Prime Minister Nouri Maliki have staged protests calling for a recount.

Mr Maliki is in a tight race with his main rival, the former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Last week, President Jalal Talabani and Mr Maliki backed calls for a manual recount of votes.

When he made the demand, Mr Maliki's language warning of threats to stability and invoking his position as commander in chief, raised concerns he might not accept the result.

BBC Baghdad correspondent Andrew North says the Iraqi election commission remains under intense pressure.

Mr Haydari, the election commission head, told the BBC: "I think Maliki or President Talabani have the right to suggest. Anyone has the right to suggest but I think we go and work according to the law. We listen to them. We can discuss with them. We can explain to them but we don't take orders. This is law. It's an election."

Fears

Our correspondent says many Iraqis have been impressed at the commission's resolve with pressure coming from all sides including from Iyad Allawi the main challenger.

But fears of renewed violence remain after the results are announced with the prospect of months of talks before a new Iraqi government can finally take office.

With just over 90% of the votes counted, IHEC said on Saturday that Mr Allawi's Iraqiya political bloc was ahead by nearly 8,000 votes nationwide.

But Mr Maliki's State of Law alliance was ahead in seven of 18 provinces - meaning he stands to get more representation in a future parliament as seats are allocated based on the outcome in each province.

International observers have largely approved of the conduct of the election.

The 7 March election is regarded as a crucial test for Iraq's national reconciliation process as well as the US's plan to stage the withdrawal of its military.

UPDATED Iran: "We are Going to Make the Future Better"

UPDATE 1030 GMT: EA readers are already making useful refinements to this article. In addition to the comments which remind me that Iranians are currently celebrating the extended Nowruz holiday --- which may account in part for this quiet political phase --- an activist says simply, "Don't forget that Iranian expression, 'Fire under the ashes'."

There has been a notable drop in news from and on the Iranian opposition in recent days. Discussing this with an EA correspondent last night, amidst the distraction of the Caspian Makan affair, I pondered if "the Greens were lying low/regrouping/rethinking/fading into sunset". The correspondent replied, "They are all in a very poor shape right now" because of the regime's suppressions and punishments.

So could the "regime  feel confident enough to relax the pressure and get a semblance of 'normal' in its rule"? We agreed that this would be "tough since now they are merely keeping law and order with a strong fist policy".

Still, that's not the most hopeful of conclusions. So, as we closed with the agreement that we would next consider the significance of the upcoming mayoral election in Tehran, was it just a case of being tough-minded and pessimistic journalists?

I was only shaken out of these thoughts this morning when I read the comment from an EA reader who lives in Iran:

We are hopeful and patient....We are going to make the future better. In Persian we say if God wants [it will happen]. We want to make it and we’ll make it.

And so another day begins.

US Politics Music Video Special: The "Yes We Can/Hell No We Can't" Mash-Up

While John Boehner, the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, couldn't defeat President Obama on the health care bill, he made sure that he left behind a killer line. Here it is, mixed with the music video that helped put Obama in the White House:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpOUctySD68[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (24 March): Regime Confidence, Regime Fear?

2210 GMT: Neda Propaganda Overkill. You might think it would be enough for Iranian state media that Caspian Makan, the reported fiancé of Neda Agha Soltan, had met Israeli President Shimon Peres (see separate entry). But, no, Press TV has to go much, much farther:

One of the suspects believed to be involved in the killing of a young woman during Tehran's post-election violence last year has visited Israel.

Caspian Makan, who claims to be Neda Agha Soltan's fiancé, has met with Israeli President Shimon Peres, during his stay in Israel.

Makan was also interviewed as a guest on an Israeli TV channel.

Agha Soltan was shot dead far away from the riot scene on June 20. Western media accused Iranian security forces of killing her, but police rejected the allegations and said Neda was shot with a small caliber pistol which is not used by the Iranian police.

They have described the killing as a premeditated act of murder "organized by US and Israeli intelligence services."

NEW Iran: The Controversy over Neda’s “Fiance”
NEW Iran: An Internet Strategy to Support the Greens? (Memarian)
The Latest from Iran (23 March): Inside and Outside the Country

2140 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Gooya reports that more than 900 Iranians have signed a petition calling for the release of imprisoned student Omid Montazeri.


Montazeri was arrested in January after he approached the Ministry of Intelligence following the detention of his mother and guests at the Montazeri house.

2015 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. On a slow news day, Parleman News has not one but two features around Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The top story on Rafsanjani's latest declaration is not that earth-shaking: the former President issues another fence-sitting declaration that "the majority of protesters are loyal to the regime", which allows him to back some public pressure on the Government while maintaining his own position of backing the Supreme Leader. No real change there.

More intriguing is the appearance of Faezeh Hashemi, Rafsanjani's daughter. The content of the interview is not very subversive. Hashemi talks about her education and passion 4 women's sports as well as making the far-from-controversial assertion that her father wants the common good of society. It's the timing that matters: the interview comes a few days after the regime tried to shut Hashemi up by arresting her son, Hassan Lahouti.


1440 GMT: Sanctions Rebuff. Turkey, a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has added to the obstacles for tougher international sanctions on Iran. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "There is still an opportunity ahead of us and we believe that this opportunity should be used effectively. Not less, but more diplomacy (is needed)."

(I am beginning to suspect that these moves might be political theatre, accepted if not directed by Washington. The Obama Administration's approach seems to be a public posture of the international route, primarily as a response to Congressional pressure, while carrying out the meaningful initiatives in bilateral talks with other countries and even with individual companies.)

1420 GMT: Today's Obama-Bashing. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of Parliament's National Security Committee, takes on the daily duty of slapping down the US Government's approach to Iran:

[President Obama's Nowruz] comments were nothing but a deception. They (Americans) have sent several messages during the last year calling for talks with Iran, but at the same time passed more than 60 anti-Iranian bills in their Congress. As long as there is no sense of balance between their comments and actions, offering talks could be only a trick....Obama has lost his prestige among the world's public opinion, therefore his new year message has no value.

1400 GMT: On the Economic Front. This could be significant: The Russian energy firm LUKoil has announced its withdrawal from an oil project in Iran "due to the impossibility of carrying out further work at the field because of the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. government".

LUKoil has a 25 percent stake in the Anaran project; a Norwegian company, Hydro, has the other 75 percent. We'll see if this withdrawal sticks: LUKoil also announced in October 2007 that it was pulling out of the project, which encompasses Azar, Changuleh-West, Dehloran and Musian oilfields with reserves at the project sites estimated at 2 billion barrels, but it resumed work two months later.

1200 GMT: We've posted an editorial from prominent reformist journalist Masih Alinejad criticising Caspian Makan, the "fiancé" of Neda Agha Soltan.

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Human Rights Voice reports that writer and women's rights activist Laleh Hasanpour was detained by Intelligence agents on 16 March and taken to an undisclosed location.

0745 GMT: Iran and Afghanistan. Readers have noted the latest wave of allegations, spurred by The Sunday Times of London that the Iranian Government is providing support, including funding and training, to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

I have been cautious in reporting the allegations, in part because The Sunday Times has been a handy channel in the past for those spreading "information" to discredit Tehran. Far more importantly, key US Government officials and military leaders are also playing down the accusation. General David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command, has said any Iranian Government role in assistance is limited. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates echoes, "There is some [training], but it, to this point, I think, has been considered to be pretty low-level."

Lieutenant Colonel Edward Sholtis said on Monday, "We've known for some time that Iran has been a source for both materiel and trained fighters for Taliban elements in Afghanistan"; however, he added that US officials do not know if the training is "simply something that is happening beyond the government's control".

(hat-tip to an EA reader for raising the story and providing sources)

0730 GMT: With the Green Movement in a quiet phase (defeated, intimidated, or just lying low?), attention is on the continuing battle between elements of the regime and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iranian authorities released Rafsanjani's grandson Hasan Lahouti yesterday, albeit on $70,000 bail, and they had to let go the former President's ally Hassan Marashi after a short detention. The anti-Rafsanjani campaign is far from over, however.

The latest assault comes from Gholam-Hossein Elham, a member of the Guardian Council. In a lengthy "unpublished interview" which somehow is published on Fars, Elham details post-election subversion. Specifically, he targets Rafsanjani for Friday Prayers addresses which did not support the Government and thus opened the way for illegal protest and manoeuvres to undermine the Islamic Republic.

So a question: is the sustained assault on Rafsanjani a sign of regime confidence that, having vanquished the opposition outside the system, it can move aggressively against challengers within? Or is it an indication that this is a Government which will never feel secure in its supposed legitimacy?

Israel Special: Obama-Netanyahu Meeting and the Settlement "Surprise"

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a two-hour low-profile meeting in two separate sessions. The leaders met for 90 minutes, adjourned to talk to advisors, and then Netanyahu requested another half-hour discussion.

NEW Middle East Therapy: Why You Are Not Necessarily “Anti-Israel” (Wright)
Full Video & Transcript: Benjamin Netanyahu’s Speech to AIPAC Conference (22 March)

Unusually, reporters were not invited to see Obama and Netanyahu shake hands and begin talks. At the end of the second meeting, the White House did not issue any statement. As for the Israelis, Netanyahu spokesman Nir Chefetz said only, "President Obama and the prime minister met privately for an hour and a half, the atmosphere was good."


Indeed, the meeting was overshadowed by another pre-emptive political strike from Israel. Netanyahu had assured Washington that there would not be another "surprise" similar to the announcement of extra 1,600 housing units made while Vice President Joe Biden was in Israel, but hours before the meeting in the White House, the Jerusalem municipality announced final approval for construction of 20 apartments in a controversial hotel in east Jerusalem. The units, located in the Shepherd Hotel purchased by American tycoon Irving Moskowitz in 1985 for $1 million, were initially approved by the local planning council in July.

So, given the timing of Netanyahu's visit and this latest defiance of US wishes for a settlement freeze, is Defense Minister Ehud Barak the only Israeli leader speaking openly and honestly? In an interview to be aired on the US Public Broadcasting Service on Wednesday, Barak has said that he cannot guarantee that there won't be any future mishaps regarding settlement building. He said:

I cannot tell you that we fully control any step or any announcement about all these dozens [of] programs which are in the pipeline, including many that are related to Arab building in Jerusalem and so on.