Afghanistan: Karzai Out-manoeuvres the United States

Somewhere there are cats marvelling at the lives of Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai.

At the start of this year, Obama Administration were considering how to oust Karzai from office. Supporting local authorities, the US blocked the President's attempt to hold elections in April and, through American media, they put forth political alternatives. Only last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a public warning to Karzai, “We have made it very clear that we expect changes. We expect accountability, and we’re going to demand it.”

In the last 72 hours, however, Karzai has shown the political skills and tenacity that prompted the US to support him as the first post-Taliban leader in 2001. He has met Washington's challenge by ensuring --- barring a political catastrophe, coup, or assassination --- that he will be returned as Afghanistan's President in August elections.

The first sign of Karzai's victory came Saturday when the Governor of Nangarhar Province, Gul Agha Shirzai, announced that he was withdrawing his Presidential bid. Shirzai was being played up as a strong contender, and only last Friday, Vice President Ahmed Zia Masood --- who had already said he would not run with Karzai --- would be Mr. Shirzai’s running mate. However, after a four-hour meeting with Karzai on Friday night, Shirzai said he was withdrawing. The U-turn took his campaign staff by surprise; his spokesman said, “Shirzai did not consult with his friends in this decision."

Shirzai was seen by some Washington officials as a preferable alternative to Karzai. Six weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal had a fawning profile of the Governor. Although he was "a semiliterate former warlord" with "an autocratic style, a reputation for doling out government contracts to family and friends, and a personal fortune allegedly amassed via corruption and the opium trade"....

....Many in Afghanistan think he might also be the country's best hope for stability. As the head of one of the country's most peaceful provinces, Mr. Shirzai has ensured that roads get built, opium poppies are plowed under, and the Taliban are held at bay.

With Shirzai removed as a contender, Karzai could then make his next move. As he registered as a candidate on Monday, he announced that former Defence Minister Mohammad Fahim as one of his two Vice-Presidential candidates.

Fahim, Karzai's Vice-President from 2001 to 2004, has been criticised as a "warlord" responsible for the killing of thousands in Afghanistan's civil war of the 1990 and for involvment in crime and drug trafficking. However, he brings Karzai support from former mujihadeen. Karzai's second Vice-Presidential candidate, Muhammad Karim Khalili, is a former mujihadeen commander and a leader of Afghanistan's Shi'a.

How secure is Karzai, despite the continued American pressure? An article in The Washington Post on Sunday offered the answer: "Karzai's Would-Be Competition in Disarray". Former interior minister Ali Jalali waved the white flag:

We tried to put together a team with a national agenda, but so far we have failed. As a result, Karzai is growing stronger by the hour. The problem is ego. Everyone thinks he has the best chance of winning, so no one is willing to compromise.

The newspaper identified three failed or failing alternatives: Shirzai, former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, who was being pushed by Washington but made the mistake of spending too much time in the US, and --- almost bizarrely --- long-time US Government official Zalmay Khalilzad, who, despite teasing signals, is unlikely to give up American citizenship and return to Afghanistan.

Another Afghan analyst, Haroun Mir, has given up on prospects of an immediate change to look at future battles:

Karzai is in a very strong position now, but even if he is reelected, Afghanistan will badly need better governance and better leadership. We need to look beyond who wins the elections. I am much more worried about the future of Afghan institutions and democracy.

Fair enough. But when Karzai visits Washington, his smile will be genuine. The Obama Administration officials with whom he will be chatting tried to pull the strings in Kabul, and they snapped. The "puppet" has escaped his masters.