Monday
May172010
The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You, Mousavi)
Monday, May 17, 2010 at 19:04 
2120 GMT: We close tonight with an analysis by Gary Sick, posted in a separate entry, of today's Tehran agreement on uranium enrichment.2045 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Literary critic Abbas Khalili Dermaneh (also known as Khalil Dermaneki) has been released after almost five months in detention. Dermaneh was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations on 27 December.
Ahmad Yazdanfar, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's security detail, has been arrested.
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Agreement on Uranium Enrichment
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Islamic Republic Depends Upon the People”
NEW Iran Document: The Prosecutor on the Executions, “Leaders of Sedition” (15 May)
NEW Iran Urgent: The Deal on Uranium Enrichment
Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions
1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Writer and children's rights activist Reza Khandan was released last Wednesday. Peyke Iran claims that that international pressure contributed to the decision to free him.
1440 GMT: Karroubi's "Islamic Republic Depends on the People". We have posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's latest rallying call for the Iranian people to defend the Republic.
1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Kabir University student Mohammad Yousefi has been released after six months in detention.
1150 GMT: More "It's Still War!" MediaFail (see 1024 GMT). It's one thing for The New York Times to package this morning's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal as, first and foremost, a complication for sanctions. Even if their "experts" are doing no more than speculating --- "The terms mirror a deal with the West last October which fell apart when Iran backtracked. This time, however, those same terms may be unacceptable to Washington and its partners because Iran has since increased its supply of nuclear fuel" --- at least there is the guise of analysis rather than Government spin.
Reuters, however, has no excuse. The agency ran the scare story last Friday from "Western diplomats" that Iran must be preparing for militarised nuclear capability because it was enriching uranium to 20 percent, rather than sending it abroad. So what happens when Iran does agree to send the uranium abroad?
Well, Reuters calls "Western diplomats" --- possibly the same ones who fed them their Friday article --- to get quotes:
"If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment [with their own centrifuges]? There is no other peaceful justification," a Western diplomat said. [NOTE: The "peaceful justification" is that Iran may not get enriched uranium for up to a year, even if this morning's deal goes through with the US and other powers.]
"This would be a deal-breaker," another said.
1120 GMT: Nuclear Question of the Day/Week/Month. We're continuing special updates in a separate entry on today's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal on uranium enrichment, and we have posted a copy of the agreement.
An EA correspondent, meanwhile, asks the key question about Iranian politics. We all know that President Ahmadinejad, seeking legitimacy, has pursued an agreement since last summer, but "why are the Supreme Leader and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who opposed last October's deal, now supporting it?"
1030 GMT: Academic Corner. Four students from Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have been expelled for political opposition.
1024 GMT: CNN on Iran Nuclear Deal "It's Still War!" A hopeless display of journalism from CNN this morning....
Instead of trying to get to grips with the possible significance of the deal announced by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey, CNN's website goes back to the older scare story --- circulated by "Western diplomats" on Friday --- of Iran putting in a second cascade of centrifuges to provide 20-percent enriched uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor, producer of medical isotopes (see Saturday's updates).
True, Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Islamic Republic News Agency this morning that Iran would continue this process but --- since arrangements for a swap of Iran's 3.5-percent uranium for 20-percent uranium in Turkey may not be completed until mid-2011 --- that would seem a logical step to keep the TRR going.
So here's CNN gambit: "20-percent enriched uranium is the threshold for uranium capable of setting off a nuclear reaction. And Western leaders have alleged that Iran is trying to create nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy program."
Umm... "Threshold for a nuclear reaction". Not threshold for even a single bomb, which is more than 90 percent.
0750 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting academics, doctors, nurses, and families of martyrs, has asserted that the Islamic Republic was only born through people's votes; therefore, the Republic derives its meaning from the people.
0730 GMT: The Nuclear Deal. We will be providing updates on today's agreement between Brazil, Turkey, and Iran in a separate entry.
Meanwhile, the key (and probably unasked) question on the internal dimension: what legitimacy will the Ahmadinejad Government claim (and what legitimacy will it obtain) from the agreement? Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there seems to be an anniversary coming up on 12 June....
0720 GMT: Intimidation. Following the public threat to Mir Hossein Mousavi from the Tehran Prosecutor General and the letter by 175 members of Parliament calling for prosecution of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see yesterday's updates), Khabar Online offers a timeline of the warnings to Mousavi and Karroubi.
0620 GMT: We open this morning with updates on two important stories.
Media inside and outside Iran will likely be focused on news of agreement between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey on a procedure for a deal on enrichment of Tehran's uranium. We've got the latest developments and what to watch for today.
Inside Iran, however, the political story is the continued effort by the Government to defend the executions, now more than a week old, of 5 Iranians. We have a transcript of Saturday's lengthy statement by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi justifying the hangings.
However, just as significant in the statement --- despite Dowlatabadi's extended denial that the timing of the executions has any political significance --- is his high-profile warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Tehran Prosecutor's references to Mousavi's position as Prime Minister in the 1980s, during a period when many Iranians were executed, should not be missed: you supported them then, so why trumpet public opposition now?
Then there is Dowlatabadi's pointed declaration to the "leaders of sedition": we've seen you denounce this execution of rightfully-condemned terrorists, we've noted it, and we will add it to the list of charges against you.
Absolutely no connection to the 12 June anniversary of the Presidential election, with the possibility of opposition demonstrations, whatsoever.
Reader Comments (37)
Eric,
I am hopeful but I think what your noticing is many on EA just view this as a sideshow. The real issue at EA is Human Rights. Most believe Iran is just milking this all for its worth to distract the international community to the reality of the oppression pervasive in Iran. Ironically if it had not been for the internal pressures I don't think Iran would have even considered dealing with the West. It would seem the regime realizes they cannot fight a two front war and thus are choosing to finally deal with the nuclear issue. By the way they are not out of isotopes. My best friends friend just chose to go back to Iran for cancer treatment this winter to be with family. I highly doubt she would have gone back if they were out of the isotopes she needs.
Thx
Bill
Arshama,
"Which sick Iranians do you mean? Those who were tortured and made sick in your Holy Republic's prisons?"
Do you think they could use medical isotopes? If so, then yes, I mean them too. Is the fuel swap deal sounding better to you?
Possible plans for a reign of terror - http://persian2english.com/?p=10783" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=10783
Eabrill
The people of Iran could have had their medical isotopes a long time ago - except for the paranoia and intransigence of the Regime that controls their poor lives.
We will have to wait and see how this "deal" pans out - whether it comes to anything or not.
Now can we get back to the more important matter of discussing regime change in Iran - and how to bring it about??
Barry
Brill, the no Thrill, have you now moved from “kind of fair election” drum to “Kind of breakthrough fuel swap” drum? Has IR changed your assignment? Okay here is the answer.
No, we are not excited about IR fuel swap trick. We know what those charlatans are up to.
The October 2009 swap agreement called for halt to further enrichment by Islamic Republic. If the IR intent for uranium enrichment was to get fuel rods for medical reactor, 5+1 provided the means to facilitate that. Further component of October 2009 agreement was transparency and IAEA full access to all IR uranium enrichment facilities and activities. The May 2010 Brazil+ Turkey+ IR agreement tries cleverly to overlook these two vital terms of the 5+1 October 2009 agreement.
There is no breakthrough in fuel swap. It is a gimmick. It is a play out of IR con artist playbook. It was the May 16 Fool the World day. Go and tell them we have their number.
The real breakthrough will be when IR smokes itself out of existence. We are counting down to that glorious day. Go tell them that too.
@ Scott & pessimist
Thank you for your replies on Clotilde Reiss!
I think the problem with these "spy" (or informant) accusations is that there is always someone who believes them - no matter how unjustified.
In the same context: there is a petition against the release of the murderer of Dr Shahpour Bakhtiar by France. (Don't know the organization...)
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/bakhtiar/" rel="nofollow">http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/bakhtiar/
Nemo,
ICAST is obviously a staunch monarchist organisation. But putting aside its bombastic rhetorics, Shahpour Bakhtiar's assassination was really terrifying. I still remember the moment, when I was sitting in a train to Heidelberg and read the account on his stabbing in Kayhan (the original London based).
Be sure that Vakili Rad will be feted by this Holy Republic as it does with all of its mercenaries: an Islamic Republic, which celebrates killers (like Navab Safavi and comparable assassins) and puts lawyers, students, human rights activists and journalists in prison! Makes me vomit...
Arshama
به گزارش منابع خبری جرس، در جریان بالا گرفتن اختلافات اخیر میان سپاه و وزارت اطلاعات که یکی از نتایج فوریِ آن انتقال تمامی افرادِ تحت بازداشت سپاه به وزارت اطلاعات بوده، وزیر اطلاعات با پرونده بسیار محرمانه طائب مسئول فعلی اطلاعات سپاه و فرمانده اسبق بسیج مواجه گشت که برابر این پرونده، "در مقر طائب در خیابان سئول تهران، در جریان بازداشتهای معترضان خیابانی به چند دختر از جمله ترانه موسوی تجاوز شده است."
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/
Did it ever occur to you to wonder how it is that if the source of this story was "extremely confidential" how JARAS got a hold of these files?
The story is batel, the rumor about Taeb being involved has been swirling around the internet and has nothing to do with alleged top secret highly classified documents mysteriously discovered by JARAS, anyone who circulates such nonsense rumors is gambling with the opposition's credibility and anyone who believes them is a fool.
QlineOrientalist,
How do you know that this story is "batel"? And why is it a "nonsense rumour"? Any evidence?
Go, tell your masters from IRGC intelligence service that in democratic states news circulate freely, because all critics are free to prove the opposite. Very different indeed from your beloved IR, where "dreadful judges" like Said Mortazavi or a notorious Bassiji commander like Ta'eb and the like circulate freely, while at least 50 journalists languish in jail http://rhairan.biz/prisoners/?cat=77" rel="nofollow">http://rhairan.biz/prisoners/?cat=77
Your immediate reaction proves that there must be some truth in this story. Thanks for confirming!
Arshama
I"ve been a supporter of the Iranian Opposition from the start. I have organized and participated in countless meetings, rallies, marches, and hunger strikes. I have translated hundreds of pages for opposition leaders without remuneration. My disagreement with this story is not some immediate reaction, but the result of having traced the story to its origins and read all the relevant documents, which I've done months ago.
As to why the story is such a ridiculous hoax? I set them down for anyone to see:
http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/category/misinformation/taraneh-mousavi-misinformation/" rel="nofollow">http://www.qlineorientalist.com/IranRises/categ...
The simple answer is, there is absolutely zero evidence for it. Three bloggers started the story going. One had a long history of fabricating news. Another was set up specifically to spread the story. The third was Omid Habibinia, who specializes in rape stories out of Iran, most of which have been thankfully ignored.
These bloggers claim to have additional photographs of "Taraneh Mousavi", but will release them when they see fit--which has so far been never.
These bloggers promised to give the address of the "Mousavi" family if the Green Movement would hold an official memorial on her chelom. An odd way of protecting this family from Iranian intelligence...
The story is riddled with internal inconsistencies, as I've documented on my blog.
To return to your accusation that I'm some agent of Iranian intelligence because I disagree with this story--this is the same mentality as those who accuse supporters of the Green Movement of being American or Israeli spies. If you'd taken the time to look at my blog, which can be accessed by clicking on the link next to my comment, you'd see my face and a link to my resume. Odd behavior for an agent of Iranian intelligence.
I am alarmed at this hoax because, as I said, spreading such stories is to gamble with the Green Movement's reputation.
QLineOrientalist,
First of all apologies for having accused you wrongly. I take it back immediately.
As to the Taraneh Mousavi story, which you call a "hoax", I read through some of your postings, but also Persian Wiki's lengthy documentation: http://tinyurl.com/36nbx3q" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/36nbx3q
It quotes Karroubi, saying that Taraneh Mousavi was arrested with others near Qoba Mosque, but not released, and afterwards her parents were called to take over her body. No reference to a rape, but certainly to her death, which was later confirmed by Morteza Alviri.
If you ask me for evidence, unfortunately I am not able to present it, because the site of the newspaper Etemad-e Melli has been filtered, i.e. disappeared (see footnotes 5 and 32).
For the moment I accept the rape story and its link to Hossein Ta'eb as unconfirmed, but this is mostly a proof ex negativo. Her death appears to be true, at least, if one believes in Mehdi Karroubi (which I do). Imho the death of a woman named Taraneh Mousavi cannot be labeled as a hoax.
As to the rest I just quote Karroubi (your translation): "we cannot keep our silence about the truth on the excuse of protecting the system, since history will eventually reveal the truth."
Arshama
And I apologize for calling you a fool. You obviously aren't.
The only reason this rumor took off was that the IRI media put on that stupid fake "documentary" about the Canadian "Taraneh Mousavi". It was after that the the Green leaders got on board.
Mehdi Karroubi, for whom we all have great admiration, also fell for the Pouraqayi story before it disintegrated and he had to make a painful retraction. It put him in the dangerous position of exposing him to charges of libel and slander. The TM story would have exposed him to the same danger, but the IRI has basically trapped itself by that idiotic video it made. Still, we have to be careful not to trade in rumors.
Our nerves are all a bit frayed, but we have to stick together.
Kind regards, brother.