Tuesday
May182010
Iran Analysis: Washington and the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Parsi)
Tuesday, May 18, 2010 at 11:50 
Trita Parsi, writing for Foreign Policy, evaluates Monday's Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on procedure for an uranium enrichment deal and Washington's reaction. His analysis complements that of Gary Sick and EA's Ms Zahra:The Brazilian-Turkish diplomatic breakthrough with Iran has taken Washington by surprise. Clearly, the geopolitical center of gravity has shifted-five years of EU-led negotiations led nowhere while the new emerging powers Brazil and Turkey only needed a few months to produce a breakthrough. Now, the West needs to pull off some political acrobatics to avoid being on the diplomatic defensive.
Before Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's trip to Iran this past weekend, few among the permanent members of the UN Security Council were optimistic about his chances of success. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was charitable when he put Lula's odds at 30 percent. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reportedly called her Brazilian counterpart to discourage Brazil from undertaking the diplomatic mission. And few in Washington seemed to have been prepared for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Iran Analysis: The Contest at Home Over (and Beyond) the Uranium Agreement (Zahra)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (18 May): Getting Beyond the Uranium Agreement
But against all odds, Turkey and Brazil seem to have succeeded in resolving the most critical obstacle in the Iranian nuclear stand-off: the issue of trust. Both through the modalities of the new deal as well as by virtue of who they are, Turkey and Brazil have succeeded in filling the trust gap.
For the Iranians --- beyond their political paralysis of last year --- the issue of trust was the primary flaw of the October 2009 proposal. As the Iranians saw it, the deal would have required that Iran place disproportionate trust in the Western powers by agreeing to give up its low-enriched uranium stockpile in one shipment, only to receive fuel rods for Iran's research reactor nine to twelve months later. This would have required a significant leap of faith on their behalf.
Iran's relations with most permanent Security Council states (P5) are fraught with tension and mistrust. This includes its relations with Russia. The European power's past support for Saddam Hussein --- including providing him with high-tech weaponry and components for chemical weapons --- has not been forgotten in Tehran, particularly not by those in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's circles.
Iran's relations with Turkey and Brazil are different, however. Though tensions and rivalry with Turkey have historic roots, relations have improved significantly under the Erdogan government. Though some skepticism remains, Iran has nevertheless noted Turkey's increased independence from --- and at times, defiance of --- the United States. In particular, Turkey's position on the Iraq war as well as its campaign to prevent a new round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran must have impressed Tehran.
Moreover, unlike with the P5 states, Iran does not only have some trust in Turkey, it also senses that it has some leverage over its Western neighbor. In 2009, Iranian-Turkish trade stood at around $11 billion, with Iran providing a significant portion of Turkey's gas needs. The combination of trust and leverage seems to have been critical in getting the Iranians to agree to put their stockpiles in Turkish territory.
In Brazil, Iran has found an unlikely but much needed ally. Brazil is a rising global power, with a legitimate claim for a permanent seat in the Security Council. It's a state with a long history of sympathizing and identifying with the Iranian position on nuclear matters. If the reprocessing takes place in Brazil, as opposed to Russia, it would be a political victory for Iran to have it occur in an emerging power who for long has endorsed Iran's right to enrichment and who itself achieved recognition of its enrichment right in spite of international pressure.
While Iran has been suspicious of European and American maneuvers and proposals, out of a fear that the ultimate objective of the West is to eliminate Iran's enrichment program, that suspicion is unlikely to arise in a Brazilian-sponsored deal due to Brazil's own nuclear program and self-interest in ensuring that Iran's nuclear rights aren't inhibited and turned into a legally binding precedent.
In fact, the Turkish-Brazilian-Iranian agreement explicitly endorses Iran's right to enrichment, a position the US has refused to officially accept.
Beyond economic interests, international prestige and the opportunity for Brazil and Turkey to become indispensible global actors, it should not be forgotten than both states have viewed war and confrontation as the likely alternative to their diplomacy. In particular, there has been a fear that the current Security Council draft resolution, while not providing an explicit justification for military action, would nevertheless provide regional states outside of the Security Council with a legal basis to take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.
Washington's reaction has thus far been muted. Though details of the agreement remain unknown, two potential points of objection have emerged.
First, the amount of low-enriched uranium (LEU) that will be shipped to Turkey, 1200 kilograms, constituted approximately 75 percent of Iran's entire stockpile back in October. Though that percentage has shrunk, it will still leave Iran with less LEU than it would need for a bomb. Still, even though Washington insisted that the deal from October remains on the table and that it is non-negotiable, it may be the US itself that ends up seeking to renegotiate the terms. Second, Iran has expanded its enrichment activities and is currently enriching uranium to 19.75 percent. The US insists that this activity must be suspended.
In spite of these potential sticking points, it is important to note that both Brazilian and Turkish decision-makers have intimate knowledge of the American position. America's red lines are crystal clear to both. And even though both have shown significant independence from the US, it is unlikely that they would announce a deal with Iran that wouldn't meet America's requirements.
Rather, the Obama administration's problem with domestic actors may be a greater challenge. Both the House and the Senate have prepared broad sanctions bills, which they intend to send to the President in the next few days. Even if the deal meets American security requirements, Congress may still push forward its extraterritorial sanctions bill, citing other concerns with Iranian behavior.
With the November elections only months away, President Obama may face some stiff opposition from Congress, even over a deal that meets America's red lines on the nuclear issue.
Reader Comments (8)
The problem will arise if US foreign policy continues to be hostage to the rabble rousers and fanatics amongst the neo-cons and the pro-Israeli lobby. They are like hounds searching for another kill. They are not satisfied with the destruction they have heaped on Iraq and Afghanistan. Ordinary US citizen groups must become politically active and raise their voices against the hysteria that the right wing fanatics in the media and congress can create and slide the US into another war that it actually cannot afford and which will actually harm the US interests in the Middle East and elsewhere more than ever. It may be what will cause the camel (the US) to break its back!
Really interesting article in the Huffington Post today. Part of the problem is that too many assumptions are made about Israel, Iran, ect. and we base our foreign policy, even our concept of ally vs. enemy, on ideas that are decades old. As a result, the U.S. and Europe have missed opportunities for diplomatic, fair economic, and ideological exchanges.
It doesn't mean the U.S. doesn't have threats or enemies in the middle east. It means that by demonizing some groups and glossing over the imperfections of allies, we are pursuing blind policies that will not make the Middle East, or America, safer.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/ready-to-rumble-in-the-mi_b_579005.html?show_comment_id=47506077#comment_47506077" rel="nofollow">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/r...
One more: Nuking Washington's Iran sanctions
By Marwan Bishara
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/imperium/2010/05/17/nuking-washingtons-iran-sanctions" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.aljazeera.net/imperium/2010/05/17/...
Just in from Reuters:
"Major world powers have agreed on a draft sanctions resolution against Iran and will circulate it to the full U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told lawmakers. (...) The agreement appears something of a rebuff to a deal worked out by Brazil and Turkey, under which Iran would send some of its uranium abroad, reviving a fuel swap plan devised last year to try to keep Tehran's nuclear activities in check."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64H3RP20100518" rel="nofollow">http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64H3RP201...
“They are like hounds searching for another kill. They are not satisfied with the destruction they have heaped on”
Yes rezvan – slowly you get it. The Iranian regime and AN are like hounds searching for another kill – after 107 tortured and murdered innocent Iranian people in the aftermath of the election they keep on making a ware against their one people.
Rezvan – I couldn’t say it better – the vindictive Iranian Regime is like a hound searching for another kill.
Have you heard about the story of Taraneh Mousavi with the headline
“Killed Protesters Watch”?
According to Jaras the rape and killing of Taraneh Mousavi has now indubitably been linked to Hossein Ta'eb, former Basij chief and actual intelligence commissioner to IRGC:
After recent quarrels between inlet service and Sepia (IRGC) all prisoners of the latter were transferred to Intel prisons, and the Intel minister has received a top secret file on Ta'eb, reporting on several cases of arrested protesters raped in Ta'eb's headquarters in Seoul street (Tehran). Tahereh Mousavis body, who had suffered severe injuries in the abdomen area, was later found burned in an unspecified area. Kharoubi reported her case in a letter to Raffers already last summer.
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/
Rezvan – your superior - Hossein Ta'eb, former Basij chief and actual intelligence commissioner to IRGC was the culprit and you are right: Hossein Ta'eb is acting like a hound - no humanity has left.
And could you do me a favour? I have had a nice discussion with your friend Ali two days ago. Now he is lost. Like Ali you are a true and convinced follower of the Regime and AN.
Up to now you had two days time to prepare your answers:
Rezvan – what do you have to say? Up to now you are just only defending
rape, torture and violence. Is that your message?
Citation of a "Rezvan Statement" (reply to Gunniy)
Date: 30. March 2010
• “you are absolutely right. Unfortunately (fortunate for them) some of these renters are paid handsomely for their rants. They are so arrogant and self righteous that they see only wrong on the other side. But the good thing is that they believe their own propaganda so strongly (but I bet they will accuse us of doing so) that there is little chance that the majority of the Iranian public will be attracted by their brand of extremism. There used to be an old adage that propaganda against your enemy is only useful if you do not start believing in it. Fortunately for us this lot has! “
Citation of Gunni`s answer
from Date: 30. March 2010
Yes, you are right. I believe the contents of these slogans: No extremism and no violence.
But what would you say to the following article.
RAHANA- Dissident cleric Mr Boroujerdi was beaten and insulted by prison officers in the cleric’s ward of the prison. He has also been threatened with being transferred to the solitary cells.
According to Gooya newsletter, the prison officials have not presented any explanation in this regard; however, these incidents seem to be a planned tragedy carried out following the failure of Clerics Prosecution Officials in February. Prosecutor Ghadyani had previously threatened Mr. Boroujerdi with exacerbating the insulting several times.
Would you say that this is an example of the Iranian regime acting peacefully without extremism?
Would you say that this is a good example how the Iranian regime loves their clergyman? Would you say that this is a good example how honest and righteous the Iranian juridical system it is?
Many questions – and up to now – 6 weeks later – to this day no answers.
You need more time?
Gunni,
Rezvan only does "hit and run" jobs! In other word he cuts and pastes what his masters send him. He is not allowed to answer any question. Answering questions is not part of his job description.
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