Iran Analysis: Towards the Final Battle? (Zahra)

EA correspondent Ms Zahra takes a close look power and resistance in Iran:

Recent news from Iran gives an ambiguous impression. The regime carries out more arrests. It concentrates and extends its power: political (President Ahmadinejad's chief advisor Esfandiar Rahim Mashai now holds 18 additional offices), economic (the extensive sale of state-owned companies to Revolutionary Guard foundations), and military sphere (new Basiji headquarters in Tehran, heavy security measures for any of Ahmadinejad’s provincial visits).

Yet, at the same time, even a "cultural" step such as using hijab as a new cause for oppression attests to the weakness of this regime. Major political, economic, and social issues remain unsolved, with no attempt to deal with them on the horizon.


POLITICAL: The nuclear case is unresolved, and more sanctions loom. Corruption investigations of high-ranking officials such as 1st Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, have been postponed temporarily but could be pressed again by the Govenrment's "conservative" opponents. The tension over the ban on the last two reformist parties, Mosharekat (Islamic Iran Participation Front) and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, lingers.

ECONOMIC: Ahmadinejad's subsidy cut plan has not been implemented two months after its approval by the Majlis. Disinvestment in the oil and gas sector, such as the South Pars and Assalouyeh fields, continues, oil sales are impeded by undeclared sanctions, and the general decline in production is not halted. Unemployment and inflation are growing, while the cases of unreturned loans (allegedly up to $50 millions) to state banks are pending.

SOCIAL: Eleven months after the disputed presidential elections, thousands of protesters are still imprisoned, and the cases of more than 100 demonstrators killed on the streets, raped in prisons, or tortured to death in facilities such as Kahrizak remain unsettled. Purges in universities and offices have not quieted protest.

Instead of addressing these crucial problems, Ahmadinejad’s government resorts to “moral” issues to discipline youth and women, the two groups of Iranian society who have constantly established their resistance against his backward social policies.

Meanwhile the opposition is closing ranks: even though the clergy in general has remained silent, high-ranking clerics such as Ayatollah Sane’i or Ayatollah Dastegheib, following the example of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, have sharply condemned governmental violence against protesting citizens.

This year’s May Day was an opportunity to build relations between the Green Movement and labour unions, and last Friday four Islamic labour associations declared that they would merge. Executions of Kurdish citizens have led to an unprecedented wave of solidarity, addressing the relationship of Iran's majority society to its ethnic minorities. Peaceful protests in Kurdish areas attest to a tacit adoption of the Green Movement’s principle of non-violence.

Editorial staffs of Green websites have issued a joint statement on resistance. Women of all political currents celebrated their union in a moving Nowruz meeting of publishers, lawyers, and human rights activists (for example, Shahla Lahiji, Nasrin Sotudeh, and Minou Mortazi) with Zahra Rahnavard. Students organise rallies and fasts for their imprisoned professors and comrades, popular artists boycotted the state-owned Islamic Repbulic of Iran Broadcasting, and the international Fajr Film Festival. Authors and their associations issue statements against repression and dedicate poems to the executed.

One may ask why the embattled Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and the former President Mohammad Khatami have not yet formed a joint front of opposition. The probable answer is that diversity is likely to attract more supporters from different political camps. Conflicting concepts, which become apparent in their statements such as Karroubi's last letter, can reflect the pluralistic nature of this popular movement.

Recent developments point to a growing division of Iranian society into two camps. The economic and military power of the Government, backed by the Revolutionary Guard and Basiji faces a majority of unarmed and impoverished people.

But the appearance of power vs. the powerless is superficial. This government is incapable to solve fundamental economic issues, which will impede its efforts to concentrate its military power in the long run. As soon as the government is not able to pay its (para)-military forces sufficiently, its last stronghold will crumble. Infusing Basiji and other paramilitary forces with “revolutionary” ideology may stop this disintegration temporarily, but even these troops do not live in a social vacuum. Even the pretext of the preservation of Islam to oppress dissidents has much lost of its credibility since the historically unprecedented killings of unarmed protesters on the religious festival of Ashura (27 December).

The Islamic Republic's most radical, undemocratic and reactionary forces have declared war on Iranian civil society, which has proven during the past 11 months its commitment to a modern, pluralistic, and peaceful Islamic state. This may the last battle of those forces as they try to deny the social and political transition of an Islamic state towards a democratic society.

Comments

[Barry]

An old saying 'You can lead a horse to water- but you can't make him drink". It seems that much of Iranian people will not drink the poisoned water that the Regime offers them

Barry

[News vom 25. Mai « Arsha]

[...] zur letzten Schlacht? (Analyse der Machtverhältnisse in Iran von Ms [...]

[Dissected News]

I think that there is merit to the argument that diversity leads to the strengthening of the movement. There are many factions "uniting" against Ahmadinejad and Khamenei (Green Movement, Kurds, Students, Reformists, PMOI...) but they often don't actually get along or share the same ideas of the end goal. They are not working together, and there is little overt unification of these forces, but behind the scenes they are all organizing and protesting against the regime. For now, it seems that no one leader has been able to truly unite them, but perhaps they are too far away from a "Final Battle" for that to matter.

For now, everyone seems content to weaken and resist the regime in their own way, and signs point towards some distrust starting to fade, especially between the Greens and the Kurds. Solidarity is a powerful thing, but it may be too early to tell whether some of these differences can be overcome.

[Bijan77]

James -

Personnally I don't think PMOI/MKO belongs in the same listing as the Greens, Kurds, etc but do agree with your points on the power in numbers. History has shown us, both in Iran and elsewhere, that when there is a common goal desired by the masses, diversity in thought/belief/ideology can be overcome to reach this common goal. As an observer it seems to me, as pointed out by Ms Zahra, there is enough diversity in the goals that is preventing the larger groups from coming together. Further, to your point, the "charasmatic leader" that has emerged in early Iranian history and lore, remains to exist or perhaps is looming in the shadows for the time being. Again, I speak to this as an observer outside of Iran. I wonder if the calls of "Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein" show that many look to him to be the "uniter" of the greater green movement or rather it is an act of defiance and statement of protest.

Again as you elude to...time will tell.

Regards,

[Dissected News]

Greetings Bijan,

I also agree that PMOI/MKO are more on the outside. I often mention this to the bomb Iran crowd, because despite having the same opponent, most of the Greens cannot seem to forgive the PMOI/MKO for the Iran-Iraq war. However, I've also seen increased cooperation between those groups, though I think that the real (but tentative) progress has been between the Kurds and the Green Movement.

Mousavi is an interesting character. Again, from an outsiders perspective, it seems like Karroubi has taken a more defiant lead. He's had harder words for the IRI than Mousavi, and he has occasionally spoken out when Mousavi has remained silent. There are many possibilities for that. Perhaps Mousavi is considered the real threat to the IRI, which is why Karroubi can get away with saying more.

Still, part of me wonders whether things would have turned out differently if the Green Movement really had a leader. Perhaps one will still emerge. However, perhaps one is not necessary yet. I don't buy the notion that the movement can go all the way without a leader, mainly because I can't think of a good example of when that has happened.

Peace,

James

[Ange-Paris]

Dissected News
You have cited all the factions "uniting" against Ahmadinejad and Khamenei (Green Movement, Kurds, Students, Reformists, PMOI...) and you are right but don't forget, that everyone asks for a referendum and in final step, Iranian People will decide which kind of governance they want . God bless our movement and protect our people; it seems that there is a general mobilisation for June.

[Barry]

Ange -Paris

"Iranian People will decide which kind of governance they want ."

Unfortunately people CAN be manipulated - and they did decide which kind of governance they wanted 30 years ago. It is also unfortunate, now that they realise what they have done, that it is very difficult to change. The act of holding a legitimate referendum is difficult - the act of deciding the subject matter of that referendum is even more difficult - especially if there is no Government to direct and assist . Iran is in a real mess!!! Not a lot different to the situation Iraq finds itself in now. However, Italy has managed to exist and survive reasonably well with a very unstable Government since WW2 - the Italians were all agreed after the WW2 on two things,their desire to end the war and their desire to get rid of the Fascists who had ruined their country - so there is hope

Barry

[Bijan77]

The PMOI/MKO has a long list of enemies, if you will, including the Greens. I do not know a single Iranian, whether revolutionary, monarchist, reformist, etc that supports the PMOI/MKO but yes...all do have a common opponent. The war still rests in peoples mind but so do the many other acts that were performed.

You bring up an interesting point that I have considered often as well. Based on past comments, etc, I get the sense Karroubi has a more agressive personality. What I have yet to get a sense of, is who garners a larger support base. If one looks to the supposed vote count, that would appear to be Mousavi, however, I get a sense that, as Karroubi becomes more openly defiant, perhaps he is gaining in his support base, specifically to the younger generations whom the majority do not seem to wish to simply see moderate reforms within the system but rather a significant overhaul as exists today. As such perhaps Karroubi is the greater threat, thus the varying degree of "punishment" put to Karroubi versus Mousavi. Although both have long standing history with the IRI, Mousavi seems to me to be in a more protected role, perhaps due to this positions in the past or perhaps due to the perception he is the "leader" and potential repercussions if he is arrested, etc.

Another question I have considered as well and I agree that there is a limit to how far a movement such as this can go without a leader as is the case not only from a historical context when comparing to other movements but also by analogy to other facets of life...businesses, etc.

Regards,

[Bijan77]

Ange-Paris -

I enjoy your posts because of the optimism and pride which are in your words.

I will agree with Barry in that a referendum will be difficult as the regime would have to allow it to be had and more importantly act on the results of the vote. I am not sure manipulation of the people led to the overthrow of the shah 30 years ago but rather it was a goal shared by so many it was easy for a few to collect this desire of the people and to put their hopes and energy to this goal.

Yes..God bless and protect the Iranian people and the green movement. I too am optimistic that there will be renewed energy in this month and again Iran will show the world the power of the human spirit.

[Ange-Paris]

Barry
We have to be optimistic; if there is a mess in the country, the government will be obliged to resign; (in a extreme case, SL as well); Karroubi and Moussavi will form a government of transition, with Karroubi taking place on SL's behalf and Moussavi replacing AN, both of them have been inside of Iran and during the elections were appreciated; the referndum will be organized and people will decide if :
-they want to change iranian constitution, with or without veleyate faghih
-they want a republic or a monarchy like UK
-they want an islamic republic or not and so on ...

[Ange-Paris]

"Although both have long standing history with the IRI..." .
They could stay with the regime and as the others, enjoy their life and their positions, but they would not ; how brave were they to become the opponents of this bloodthirsty regime and speak out loudly; is it true, isn't it ? I am sure I am right !

[Ange-Paris]

Thank you .

[Bijan77]

Yes you are right....but that is not the context I was discussing in. Rather the discussion was about how they have been attacked and those around them have been arrested, Mousavi and Karroubi have not. I was speculating that may in part be due to the fact they were part of the establishment in the early days of the IRI. It is true they could have stayed "within" the system and not spoke out but they have and by doing so risked their safety and that of their families and associates. I am in no way taking away from what either Mousavi or Karroubi has done to promote and support the green movement.

[Barry]

Bijan

My comment re the Iranian people having already been manipulated 30 years ago - I was referring to what happened after the overthrow of the Shah and after Khomenei came back to Iran.

Barry

[Arshama]

Bijan77,

Fully agree with most of your remarks, especially on PMOI/MKO. But apparently even this harsh rejection appears to fade away. Jaras has published an article by Dr. Tofighi, former former central committee member of MKO, much in line with Ms Zahra's remark: Execution of Kurds Arouses Unprecedented Sympathy: http://en.irangreenvoice.com/content/1952" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/content/1952

As to the leadership, I believe like Ange that Mousavi and Karroubi are the best for a transitional government to prepare a referendum and free elections.

Regards,
Arshama

[Bijan77]

Barry -

I misread. My apologies.

[Bijan77]

Arshama -

Thank you for the article. Another sign that diverse groups and even those that normally would not be considered as potential allies are beginning to come together in unity for a common cause....

I agree with both you and Ange that for a transitional government that yes both or either Mousavi or Karroubi may be best, though I wonder if Karroubi's religious credentials would be sufficient for him to assume a SL type role as our friend Ange suggests. It is obvious they have the most support from the people at this time. Khatami seems to have lost much credibility after his presidential term, though one could debate how much was his "fault". So my question then becomes, given transitional implies temporary, what or rather who would be next? Is it possible the green movement will see new leaders come from within the movement itself?

Regards,

[Ange-Paris]

It was not the fault of Khatami but the systeme's; at his time, he really wanted to reform and improve, possibly putting IRI on the good path , unfortunately the others were living at the time of prophet Mohammed ! yet, our holy Koran says that we have to progress along our time and follow modernity ; there are technology ( computer, TV, ...), globalisation and in the way of their thinking, it's impossible to live in those conditions; iranian people are so skillful and talented, instead of giving them wings to fly, they suffocate them, humiliate and ill-treat them; it's time to go dear leaders, you have caused enough damages !

[Bill Davit]

Ms Zahra,

A well written article and one to reinvigorate the soul and remind all the reasons why the Green Movement fights so valiantly as it does! It is a refresher to all of us who often take freedom for granted just how precious it is!

Thx
Bill

[Bijan77]

Well said Ange.