UPDATED Iraq Analysis: 100+ Die as The Politics and The Guerrilla War Continue (Cole)

UPDATE 1215 GMT: Juan Cole has posted another note with the latest death toll (119) and reading of the bombings.

A bit of context for Juan Cole's latest evaluation of the Iraq situation: Steven Lee Myers writes in The New York Times that Monday's attacks killed at least 101 people and wounded hundreds more. In The Guardian of London, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqqiya list won the most Parliamentary seats in the 7 March election, warns, "This conflict will not remain within the borders of Iraq. It will spill over and it has the potential to reach the world at large, not just neighbouring countries. Now Iraq is at centre stage in the region. But it is boiling with problems, it is stagnant and it can go either way."

A series of coordinated attacks on checkpoints and a Shiite mosque on Monday in Iraq demonstrated that the guerrilla opposition to the US-imposed new order in that country continues to be active and organized. Some 300-400 civilians and members of security forces are still being killed in political violence every month, not counting the insurgents themselves.

Iraq: The Politicians, The Clerics, and a Coalition? (Alaaldin)

The death rate from such violence appears little changed this year from last. The attacks continue to make economic progress difficult; they often disrupt the work (and even destroy the edifices) of government agencies, and they discourage foreign investment. Attacks on Shiite mosques are intended to provoke reprisals against Sunni Arabs, sharpening the contradictions and polarization and making Sunnis easier to recruit and mobilize for the resistance.


Meanwhile, one of the only ways mainstream Sunni Arabs, about 17 percent of the population, can hope to avoid another purely Shiite-Kurdish government would be to acquiesce in the formation of a government of national unity. That step would require the secular Iraqiya List, for which most Sunni Arabs voted, but which includes secular Shiites like its leader Iyad Allawi, to join the government. Thus, Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that incumbent PM Nuri al-Maliki and Iraqiya leader Iyad al-Allawi have met to discuss a place at the table for the Iraqiya.

This move would have benefits for several parties. Al-Maliki campaigned against ex-Baathist secularists, but his current allies, the Shiite religious parties of Ammar al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, seem insistent on replacing him with someone else, perhaps Ibrahim Jaafari. The Iraqiya might prefer al-Maliki, who has backed off purely sectarian language and speaks like an Iraqi nationalist, even though he remains head of the fundamentalist Islamic Mission Party (Da’wa), to a more sectarian candidate favored by the Sadrists. So, if al-Maliki can draw the Iraqiya in, it might be a way of outmaneuvering Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army al-Maliki attacked militarily in 2008. Ammar al-Hakim of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is close to Tehran, has in any case made it clear that he will not join a government from which Allawi’s list is excluded.

So the scenario I predicted soon after the March 7 election, of a core Shiite alliance but a government of national unity that includes Iraqiya and the Kurds, seems in train. It replicates the government of summer, 2006, when US ambassador Ryan Crocker worked hard at cementing it. This time, much of the work seems to be being done by the Iraqis themselves, sometimes reluctantly, as the need for political reconciliation bears in on them and they realize it is key to their future as a state.

Latest from Iran (10 May): Will the Executions Matter?

1920 GMT: Protest Videos. We've now posted three videos of today's anti-Ahmadinejad protest at Shahid Beheshti University and a video of a student walkout at Elm-o-Sanat University over the speech of a Government official.

1910 GMT: Executions --- A Correction. An Iranian activist puts out an important note: Mehdi Islamian, one of the five Iranians hung on Sunday, was not a Kurd. Islamian's brother and three other people were convicted of a bombing in Shiraz and accused of connections with monarchists. The activist claims that Islamian's "crime" was money given to his brother.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest Against Ahmadinejad at Shahid Beheshti University (10 May)
NEW Iran Background Video: Protest in Kurdistan Over Political Prisoners
Iran: Farzad Kamangar’s Last Letter “Is It Possible to Teach and Be Silent?
Iran First-Hand: Assessing Life and Opinions in Tehran (Majd)
Iran, Meet Kafka: The Web of Internet Censorship Catches All (Farokhnia)
The Latest from Iran (9 May): 5 Iranian Kurds Executed

1900 GMT: Mousavi on the Executions. Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement on Sunday's execution of five Iranian Kurds (English translation):

The sudden execution of five of the citizens of this country without giving any clear explanations regarding their charges, prosecution procedure and trials to the people, is just similar to the unjust trend that in the recent months have led to the surprising sentences for a lot of caring women, men and citizens of our country.

When the Judiciary shifts its position from supporting the oppressed toward supporting authorities and those in power, it is hard to stop people from judging that the judiciary sentences are unjust. How is it that today the courts pass on those who ordered and committed the crimes of Kahrizak Prison, [the attacks on Tehran] University dormitories, Sobhan residence [3], the days of 15th and 20th of June, and Bloody Ashura [27 December], and closed the massive corruption cases before opening them and then suddenly on the eve of the month of Khordaad [June], the month of consciousness and seeking justice, hangs these five individuals with so many unanswered questions? Is this the Alavi [those who follow the first Imam of Shi'a, Imam Ali] justice that you were after?

1625 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has declared that he still believes the solutions he presented in his Friday Prayer address last July --- the last time he spoke from the Tehran podium --- still provide an exit from the current post-election conflict.

Meeting former governors, Rafsanjani said adherence to the Constitution was the most important basis for "moving forces" towards a resolution.

A reminder of Rafsanjani's 17 July speech, which was accompanied by mass protests against the handling of the post-election conflict by the Government:

The most important thing that has happened is that the trust that brought the people
to vote in such large number is not there anymore.
We need to return this trust.

We all need to follow the law. And I’m talking about the government, the parliament, the Islamic Courts and the security forces.
We need to follow the laws.
All problems can be solved if we only follow the framework of the laws.
We need to create an environment where all sides could come together and discuss their issues.
We need to be able to sit down like brothers and sisters and talk about our differences.
Unfortunately,
The chance that was given to the Guardian Council of five days to get people together and regain their trust was not used.
That is not there anymore.
But we still have time to unite.

We shouldn’t imprison our own people,
We should let these people return to their homes,
We shouldn’t let our enemies laugh at us because we’ve imprisoned our own people.
We should sit together with mourners,
And we should console them,
And bring them back closer to the system.
We should not be impatient now.

Please do not censor media outlets that have legally obtained permits.
Let them do what they want to do legally.
Allow a peaceful and friendly environment to prosper.
We are all together in the Islamic Revolution,
We’ve all spent years in suffering,
We’ve all given martyrs for the cause of the revolution,
This unity needs to fostered.

I’m hopeful that we will be able to achieve this unity in the future,
And I’m hopeful we will get out of this situation,
Based on the wishes of the people,
And consensus among the leaders.

1500 GMT: The Executions. Education International has issued a statement that it is "deeply troubled to hear reports that Iranian teacher trade unionist Farzad Kamangar was among five people who were summarily executed in secret on 9 May". The International Trade Union Confederation has also condemned the hanging.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Sixty professors from the Tehran University of Medical Sciences have written to the university's president, calling for the release of medical student Maryam Abbasinejad from prison.

Abbasinejad was arrested a day after Ahmadinejad’s sudden appearance at the university on 1 May. There is no information on her physical condition or the reason behind the arrest.

1420 GMT: Getting Rid of Bad Books. The Supreme Leader, meeting officials of the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization, has urged authorities to prevent the publication of books which contradict Iran's religious and cultural values: "The country's cultural atmosphere, especially in the field of book publishing, should be protected as there are some who seek to distort history and spread issues which are against our values."

Ayatollah Khamenei's remarks come after reports that the Tehran Book Fair barred works by figures such as Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, a hero of the Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollah Sane’i, and Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. (Press TV notes simply, "The meeting [with the IIDO] comes as the Iranian capital of Tehran is hosting an international book fair which runs until May 15.")

1415 GMT: "Hardline" Editor Acquitted. Hossein Shariatmardari, the editor of the "hardline" Kayhan, has been acquitted by a Tehran court of all charges of libel, brought by, amongst others, activists such as Shirin Ebadi and Shadi Sadr and journalist Emaduddin Baghi.

1410 GMT: Maziar Bahari, Master Criminal. An EA correspondent reports that Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari was today, in absentia, has been given a sentence of 13 years imprisonment and 74 lashes by the Revolutionary Court of Tehran. This is the longest jail term imposed on a journalist in the post-election conflict.

Bahari was detained in Iran for four months after the election but was released in October. He returned to the United States, although he still has family in Iran.

1345 GMT: Kicking Out the Oil Companies (This Time We Mean It). Iran has issued a new two-week ultimatum to Royal Dutch Shell and the Spanish company Repsol after the expiry of a previous ultimatum last month.

Referring to long-standing contracts for development of natural gas fields, Reza Kasaiezadeh, director of the National Iranian Gas Export Company, said, "The oil ministry has now issued an ultimatum to Shell and Repsol, holding them responsible to determine the situation surrounding contracts on South Pars phases 13 and 14 over a period of two weeks."

On Saturday, Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi had threatened that Iran will expel foreign firms for delaying development, but he did not a specific company. Shell, citing the prospect of Western sanctions, suspended operations in South Pars earlier this year.

1210 GMT: What Demonstrations? Islamic Republic News Agency has posted an article on President Ahmadinejad's speech at Shahid Beheshti University praising Iran's "astonishing speed of scientific progress". Nothing, however, on the student demonstration that greeted news of the visit.

1155 GMT: MediaWatch. Non-Iranian media are gradually picking up on the significance of Sunday's executions. The BBC has now posted a short article, and The Guardian of London goes further with references to demonstrations (although the newspaper's story, "Kurds to protest after Iran executions", misses the fundamental point that many Iranians who are not Kurdish may be demonstrating and linking the hangings to wider post-election issues of injustices and abuses).

1150 GMT: Silent Demonstrations at Universities? Rah-e-Sabz writes that silent protests against the executions of the Iranian Kurds are planned for Wednesday and Thursday at Tehran University.

1140 GMT: We've posted two claimed videos of a protest against President Ahmadinejad's visit to Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran.

1000 GMT: Add Toronto to the list of cities where protests took place against Sunday's executions.


0810 GMT: Mousavi "An Enemy of God". Gholam-Hossein Elham, a member of the Guardian Council, has reportedly said that Mir Hossein Musavi is a "mohareb" (enemy of God).

Elham, quoted by Fars News from a speech at a university, would be the most significant Government official so far to make the allegation --- which carries the death penalty under Iranian law --- against Mousavi.

0800 GMT:  Diversion? Amidst the uproar over the execution of five Iranian Kurds as enemies of the state, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has tried to hammer home the themes of Iran's defence against foreign-supported "terrorism". Speaking at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Turkey, Larijani claimed direct US backing and involvement of groups operating out of Pakistan.

Larijani's comments are made in the context of the recent capture of Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

0700 GMT: MediaWatch. Nazila Fathi writes in both the print and versions of The New York Times this morning about the execution of the five Iranians, taking the line: "Although the authorities announced that the five people executed Sunday had been found guilty of carrying out fatal bomb attacks, the executions were widely seen as intended to discourage people from rallying against the government on June 12 [the anniversary of the Presidential election."

The Washington Post has a shorter, muddled Web-only piece by Thomas Erdbrink. For some reason, the article distinguishes between the hangings of four of the Kurds and the execution of Mahdi Islamian, leading to the distorted headline, "Reported executions of four Kurds could increase tensions in Iran". The report is largely drawn from the account of Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency, so there is no consideration of wider political issues.

0630 GMT: Nuclear Front. In advance of the visit by Brazilian and Turkish leaders to Iran which may signal a brokering of an uranium enrichment deal, Tehran has restated its willingness to reach an arrangement.

The head of Iran'a atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, told reporters, "Some countries have been seeking to impose a series of conditions on Iran, but our condition is receiving concrete assurances."

Salehi continued, "Our stance toward the nuclear fuel swap has not changed. We will give 3.5 percent enriched uranium and receive 20 percent enriched fuel. Our purpose (of continuing negotiations with the West) is to give the Western countries an opportunity to save face and find a way out of the current situation."

0515 GMT: Crackdown on Kurdish Teachers. An Iranian activist reports that four leading members of the Kurdestan Teachers Union were arrested by Iranian intelligence on Sunday.

0500 GMT: It has been a long time since a single story from Iran galvanised reaction outside the country. Iranians and activists throughout the world responded with sadness and fury to the Sunday morning news that five Iranians --- Farzad Kamangar, Ali Heydarian, Farhad Vakili, Shirin Alamhouli, and Mehdi Eslamian --- had been executed for alleged bombings and/or membership of the Kurdish organisation PEJAK. Demonstrations took place in London, Berlin, Paris, Milan and Hamburg, with dozens arrested at the French rally.

But what will the response be inside Iran? Will the hangings provoke public anger or will any display be muted? We have posted video of a demonstration in Sanandaj in Kurdistan in July 2008 over detentions, including that of Farzad Kamangar, who was hung on Sunday. Families of the executed reportedly called for a protest in front of Tehran University at 11 a.m. local time (0600 GMT).

Afghanistan Analysis: A Very Bad Six Months (White)

Jim White writes in The Seminal:

Congress now requires a "Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan" every six months (or, every Friedman Unit), and the latesthas very gloomy news. Here is the best spin that the Defense Department’s accompanying press release could come up with:

NEW Afghanistan Analysis: The Growth of the “Taliban Zone” (Porter)
Afghanistan: Your Guide on How to Be An Expert

Stability in Afghanistan is no longer on the decline, and most Afghans believe that despite increased violence, security actually has improved since this time last year, according to a new report Pentagon officials sent to Congress today.

Notice that "despite increased violence part"? Here is the ugly truth behind that spin:




The reality is that since the beginning of 2007, violent events in Afghanistan, by the Defense Department’s measurements, have doubled, and the trend is still decidedly in the direction of more violence.

When it comes to assessing the strengths of the insurgency, here are the bullet points:

Insurgent Strengths:

• The speed and decisiveness of insurgent information operations and media campaigns remain not only the insurgents’ main effort, but also their most significant strength.
• Organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.
• The ability to intimidate through targeted killings and threats in order to force acquiescence to their will.
• The strength and ability of shadow governance to discredit the authority and legitimacy of the Afghan Government is increasing.
• IED use is increasing in numbers and complexity; IEDs are as much a tactic and process as they are a weapon.
• Insurgents’ tactics, techniques, and procedures for conducting complex attacks are increasing in sophistication and strategic effect.

Hmmm. Doesn’t "ability to intimidate through targeted killings and threats" sound familiar? Especially if it is intended to "force acquiescence"? That sounds very much like the night raids that are a central feature of General Stanley McChrystal’s vaunted COIN strategy. Despite the knowledge that night raids are a central driving force for the recruitment of new insurgents, especially when night raids result in the the death or imprisonment of innocent civilians, here is the extent of the explanation of McChrystal’s changes to the night raid strategy:

The Night Raids Tactical Directive, issued on January 23, 2010, raises the threshold that must be achieved before a tactical night raid can be approved. The directive applies to the conduct of night raids by all conventional and SOF in Afghanistan under command of COMISAF. This directive acknowledges that the Afghan population’s judgment of our conduct and perception of our intentions will be critical in their decision to support their nation’s struggle against the insurgency. While night raids are effective and their operational value is understood, the new directive recognizes the cultural dynamics and acknowledges that night raids’ success comes at a steep cost in terms of perceptions of the Afghan population. Therefore, COMISAF directed that night raids should be executed only after all other courses of action have been considered. This directive outlines a number of the planning and execution factors that must be considered if night raids are to be conducted in order to ensure that they are tactically sound, judiciously used, and as transparent as possible.

Note the order of priorities in this description. The primary consideration is that "night raids should be executed only after all other course of action have been considered", rather than the later mention of them being "tactically sound" and "judiciously used", which presumably means that efforts should be made to eliminate faulty targeting of innocent civilians, although it would be more reassuring if they would say that directly.

Perhaps the most revealing information on where the situation in Afghanistan is headed comes in the assessment of the security situation in "key districts". Here are the data from late December compared to mid-March:



That poor security situation has a direct impact on the feelings of the local population. Here is how the New York Times described the population polling information:

In 92 districts assessed for their support of the Afghan government or their antagonism to it, not one supported the government, although the population was neutral in 44 districts. The number of districts sympathetic to the insurgency or supportive of it increased to 48 in March 2010 from 33 in December 2009.

That’s right, in the most recent half Friedman Unit, we went from 33 key districts with support or sympathy for the insurgency to 48. How’s that for an effective surge? By the Defense Department’s own analysis, the insurgency is getting stronger and increasing its efficacy at the same time that it is gaining control in more districts. How on Earth can they then claim that "Stability in Afghanistan is no longer on the decline"?

The Latest from Iran (1 May): May Day and Mayday

2030 GMT: In the Dark. Shaky journalism from The New York Times: Nazila Fathi, who is usually quite good, relies on unnamed "analysts" rather than a close look at events to make the sweeping claim:

A planned demonstration in which Iranian teachers and workers were to join reformists in an antigovernment protest failed to materialize on Saturday, apparently the result of intimidation and a large police presence.

Two Iranian opposition leaders, Mir Hussein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, had called Thursday for workers and teachers to join the reformists in a broad-based coalition.

The call went unheeded on Saturday, analysts said, largely because of government intimidation.

The article is inaccurate on a number of key points.

1. There was no call for teachers and workers to join reformists on the streets today; instead there were a series of statements calling for solidarity with the demands of those teachers and workers, highlighting Government repression and Iran's poor economic situation.

2. Mousavi and Karroubi, in particular, did not call for a demonstration today. They are looking towards 12 June, the anniversary of the election, for a public show of dissent.

3. Fathi is quite right about the show of force by the Government to deter protests, but she seems unaware of the incident at Tehran University, with students demonstrating against the visit of President Ahmadinejad, and about the series of smaller, dispersed displays of discontent in Tehran and other cities.

UPDATED Iran Video and Translation: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Deterring Protests, “Greeting” Ahmadinejad (1 May)
NEW Iran: US Filmmakers Demand “Free Jafar Panahi”
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Green Movement is Growing in Society”
UPDATED Iran: Tehran, Defender of Rights (Don’t Mention Boobquake), Joins UN Commission on Status of Women
Latest Iran Video: Shirin Ebadi on the Human Rights Situation (23 April)
The Latest from Iran (30 April): The Heaviness of the Atmosphere

1945 GMT: May Day Updates. We've fixed the coding of today's videos (with the transfer to Disqus comments, our YouTube plug-in is temporarily disabled), and we've posted an updated version of Mir Hossein Mousavi's message, now with English subtitles.


1900 GMT: Your May Day Irony. The top news on Fars News' website for much of the afternoon? May Day protests...in Europe, with "hundreds of thousands of workers" protesting economic conditions.

The story was so important to Fars that it must have diverted staff from its domestic bureau to European coverage, for curiously, there is no mention of any May Day demonstration in Iran.

1620 GMT: The scale of the regime crackdown on dissent has been evident in the limited footage coming out of Iran today. What has gotten out has been shaky film shot at odd angles to avoid detection by the authorities.

We've posted severa clips of the security presence and of students allegedly chanting defiantly as President Ahmadinejad came to Tehran University.

1400 GMT: Clashes? Reza Sayah again quotes a Tehran witness, "Security forces clashed with about 200 protesters chanting 'Death to the Dictator' at the Ministry of Labor." An Iranian activist is also reporting this news.

1330 GMT: May Day. CNN's Reza Sayah quotes Tehran witnesses, "Thousands of security personnel from Revolution [Enghelab] Square to Ministry of Labor. No sign of protests."

1310 GMT: Quote of the Day. "For a Government so sure that Green Movement is over and done with, they have a lot of security out on the streets."

A shaky, secretly-shot video offers apparent confirmation.

1300 GMT: Containing Rights. Human rights activist Hassan Assadi Zeidabadi has been banned from leaving Iran.

1230 GMT: Confirmation? Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that "thousands" of workers protested in Qazvin, 100 miles northwest of Tehran. Another story asserts that "hundreds" have demonstrated in Tabriz against unemployment and poverty.

The website also claims that Tehran University students protested when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived unexpectedly on the campus.

1130 GMT: May Day. We are following the stream of stories of protests in Tehran and in other Iranian cities such as Shiraz and Qazvin. At this point, we are treating the reports as unconfirmed.

0945 GMT: May Day. The first claimed picture of a protest comes from Shiraz.

0930 GMT: Rights and Wrongs. We've posted a separate entry on the petitions by US filmmakers, including Stephen Spielberg, Robert Redford, and Martin Scorsese, calling for the released of their detained Iranian colleague Jafar Panahi.

We have an update on Tehran and the UN Commission on the Status of Women, featuring two of the many statements condemning the vote for Iran's membership.

And we note an open letter from 20 journalists and bloggers in Evin Prison, complaining that their conditions worsen day by day.

0810 GMT: May Day Build-Up. Ahead of possible demonstrations this afternoon, Kalemeh is reporting a growing security presence in Tehran, especially at Enghelab and Azadi Squares. Forces are also guarding the Ministry of Labour on Azadi Street and the Ministry of Interior at Fatemi Square.

Kalemeh also reports that many employers have threatened to fire workers who protest.

0735 GMT: May Day Statements. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front Participation has issued its statement proclaiming that the workers' and Green movements will open the way to a better future.

An analysis in Rah-e-Sabz connects the seeking of justice with the seeking of freedom through the demands of labour. It does so in part to deny that the Green Movement is based solely on the "middle class" and, in fact, is built on links with workers.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Minister of Economy Mehdi Ghazanfari has said that stocks of cooking fat, rice, and meat will be built up to prepare for the implementation of subsidy cuts.

That sounds like sensible preparation, but building up stocks means less goods available for týsale, which in turn means higher prices.

0725 GMT: Rumour of Day. Aftab News --- which is not a reformist outlet --- claims that future elections will be manipulated to exclude Ahmadinejad's "conservative" rivals: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

0715 GMT: Mahmoud and Cyrus. President Ahmadinejad's tactics on the eve of May Day? In a speech on Kish Island, he invoked Cyrus, the famous Persian ruler, and said that Iran is waging a fight over "ethics and humanity".

Ahmadinejad added, ethically and humanely, "Today Iran is the world's most powerful nation. We like all nations and are glad to see their prosperity. However, we have a powerful fist that will knock the teeth out of anyone."

0705 GMT: A Deal on Uranium? Reuters dares to go public with the story we've been following for weeks: "Turkey and Brazil are trying to revive a stalled atomic fuel deal with Iran in an attempt to help the Islamic Republic avoid new U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program, Western diplomats said on Friday."

With Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Brazilian officials both paying visits to Tehran recently, that's not exactly a shocker. The mystery is whether the US Government supports the initiative.

Reuters gives the impression that Washington is opposed, but I'm not so sure. Their big quote is "Nobody's going to stand in the way of serious negotiations. But is Iran serious about this offer? Or is it another attempt to stall for time and avoid sanctions, as has been the case before?" That comes from a "Western diplomat", however, not necessarily an American one and not necessarily one who is close to the discussions.

We'll watch closely and will have an analysis if there are further developments.

0645 GMT: We'll keep eyes open today for rallies and protests on the international day for workers. Indications up to May Day are that, with the tight grip the regime is trying to maintain, demonstrations will be small and diverse, rather than a concentrated gathering.

In recent days, new charges have been brought against Mansour Osanloo, the detained leader of the Tehran and Municipality Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate. Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, has been summoned to appear in court, and other activists have been sentenced. Five members of the Iranian Free Workers Association have been summoned to the Intelligence Office in Sanandaj in Iranian Kurdistan. And, on the eve of National Teachers Day, leaders and members including Alireza Hashemi, Ali Akbar Baghani,and Mohammad Beheshti Langarudi, and Tofigh Mortezapour have been detained.

That does not mean, of course, that anger, frustration, and demands have abated. Let the day unfurl.