Thailand: The Latest in the Crisis; At Least 16 Dead (Mydans and Szep/Ahuja)

Writing for The New York Times, Seth Mydans summarises Friday's violent escalation in Thailand's political crisis. Jason Szep and Ambika Ahuja, reporting for Reuters, add information on the roots of the conflict:

MYDANS

Thai troops on Friday fired tear gas and bullets at protesters, who responded with stones, slingshots and homemade rockets, turning parts of downtown Bangkok into a battlefield as the military tried to tighten its cordon around a broad area where the protesters have camped for weeks.

Sixteen people were killed and 141 wounded, according to the government-run Erawan medical center, in some of the worst violence in two months of unrest. The standoff has paralyzed the Thai government and further fractured a society struggling to cope with the growing demands of its poor.

The fighting followed an assassination attempt on Thursday on a renegade general who had declared himself a protector of the protesters before he was critically wounded by a sniper’s bullet.



The antigovernment protesters, mostly poor rural residents known as red shirts, seized and vandalized several military vehicles, setting at least one truck on fire and cheering as soldiers with riot shields looked on. Protesters pulled soldiers from their vehicles and beat them severely.

Plumes of black and brown smoke rose into the air, and large explosions and gunfire were heard well into the night.

On Friday, streets that would normally have been bustling with traffic were instead littered with stones and bottles and sealed off by soldiers building roadblocks with sandbags and coils of razor wire.

Troops in battle gear crouched behind traffic barriers, pointing their rifles at the bands of motorcycle riders who formed a mobile force for the protesters, while other troops ran along a highway overpass as traffic crawled behind them.

Although the violence has been confined largely to the city’s central area, reports of the political chaos in recent months have hurt tourism, one of the country’s main industries, and left some hotels in the downtown area just 20 percent full.

The army officer who was shot Thursday, Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawatdiphol, was on life support late Friday, and his doctor said his chances of survival were “almost nil.”

Thai officials had blamed General Khattiya for playing a part in earlier violence and for blocking any chance of peace with protesters. Leaders of the red shirts had also disavowed him, but he nevertheless took control of security for the protesters and was supported by a small, hard-line group of demonstrators.

On Friday, amid the sounds of gunfire and explosions, the United States Embassy, which is near the disturbances, shut down and offered voluntary relocation to employees who lived near the protest area. Other nearby embassies, schools and businesses also closed.

If it is not contained, the violence could widen into the kind of broader conflict that the government has been trying for weeks to avoid. Just several days ago, it appeared the long sit-in might end peacefully when the government offered to move up elections, a proposal that won tentative support from protest leaders.

But that support began faltering even before the general was shot, as the opposition movement bickered over whether the government was doing enough to meet its demands, including the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of a new election.

In response, the government withdrew its offer of an early election and said it would no longer negotiate with the red shirts.

Protest leaders have said that if the military tries to disperse them, supporters elsewhere in the country may stage similar takeovers of streets or government buildings.

However the occupation of parts of the capital ends, deep divisions and tensions are likely to persist in a country that is increasingly split between its poor and its urban elite. Over the past four years, political and personal enmities have hardened, making reconciliation more difficult.

Inside the barricaded protest area on Friday, leaders addressed thousands of demonstrators, vowing to hold their ground and resist any military incursion. “They are tightening a noose on us, but we will fight to the end, brothers and sisters,” one leader, Nattawut Saikua, told the crowd.

Another leader, Kokaew Pikulthong, issued what appeared to be a veiled threat to the government. In the event of a crackdown, he said in a telephone interview, protesters may be forced to break into shopping malls “to survive.”

The protest area, covering about one square mile on roads that surround a major intersection, has grown filthy and fly-infested, with garbage stacking up since the government cut off waste collection and water deliveries for the rally’s storage tanks.

The deputy governor of Bangkok, Pornthep Techapaiboon, said that portable toilets in the protest area would remain in place for sanitary reasons, but that the workers who cleaned them had already withdrawn after being assaulted by protesters.

Because of new military checkpoints, the protesters, who sleep on mats on the street, can leave the site if they choose, but are not being allowed to return.

Those wounded in the clashes on Friday included a camera operator for a French television station and a Thai photographer, both of whom had been shot.

At the perimeters of the conflict zone, demonstrators poured gasoline over high barricades of concrete blocks, tires, barbed wire and sharpened bamboo poles, threatening to ignite them if attacked. They splashed oil on the street in front of one barricade and scattered pellets to create a slippery dry-land moat.

Protesters attached homemade explosives to the ends of sticks, as they do during a traditional rocket festival, propping them inside plastic traffic cones before aiming and sending them with a whoosh in the direction of soldiers. They also fired in the direction of military helicopters.

Some protesters wore motorcycle helmets and carried homemade weapons, including bows and arrows, slingshots and sharpened bamboo poles.

Some prepared to fling plastic bags filled with pungent fish sauce and hot chilies at soldiers.

A man who identified himself as John Redshirt, a disc jockey for an antigovernment radio station, watched as men sat on the ground in a makeshift workshop constructing crossbows from plastic pipe and bamboo.

“We are never scared of the military,” he said in English. “If they come, we have the right to fight back. We can’t just let them kill us and do nothing.”

A nurse at a first aid station inside the camp, Jenny Tan, 56, spoke of possible worsening violence with tears in her eyes.

“We are afraid for the soldiers, too,” she said. “The soldiers are our sons. We are mother, father, sister, brother. So we don’t want any of them to die. Very, very sad. Very, very sad for Thailand.”

---

SZEP/AHUJA

Thai troops fired at protesters on Saturday in a third day of fighting on Bangkok's streets that has killed 16 people as soldiers struggle to isolate a sprawling encampment of demonstrators seeking to topple the government.

Clashes continued across central Bangkok as soldiers behind sand bags or atop buildings fired live rounds at protesters armed with petrol bombs. One was shot in the chest while trying to ignite a tyre in Bangkok's usually bustling business district.

At Din Daeng intersection, north of the protest site, three bodies were evacuated on stretchers, a Reuters witness said. Two suffered head wounds. Troops also swarmed into a parking lot at the popular Dusit Thani hotel outside the protest site.

That followed a long night of grenade explosions and sporadic gunfire as the army battled to set up a perimeter around the 3.5 sq-km (1.2 sq-mile) barricaded encampment where thousands refuse to leave, including women and children.

"We'll keep on fighting," said Kwanchai Praipana, a leader of the red-shirted protesters, calling on Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to resign and take responsibility for Thailand's deadliest political crisis in 18 years.

He said supplies of food, water and fuel were starting to run thin as their usual delivery trucks were blocked but that they had enough to last "days".

Hardcore protesters, gathering in small numbers, set fire to vehicles, including an army truck, and hurled rocks at troops who set up razor wire at checkpoints and asked residents to show identification cards to stop people from joining the mostly rural and urban poor "red shirts".

The crisis has paralysed Bangkok, squeezed Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, scared off tourists and choked off investment in one of Asia's most promising emerging markets.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon expressed concern over "the rapidly mounting tensions and violence".

"He strongly encourages them to urgently return to dialogue in order to de-escalate the situation and resolve matters peacefully," his spokesman said in a statement.

The Canadian government urged both sides to return to talks after a Bangkok-based Canadian journalist was shot three times, one of three journalists wounded in fighting that has spiralled into chaotic urban warfare where front lines shift quickly.

"UNLIKELY TO END QUICKLY"

The government said on Friday it would restore order "in the next few days" as the city of 15 million people braced for a crackdown to end a six-week protest by thousands of "red shirts" packed into an area of high-end department stores, luxury hotels, embassies and expensive residential apartments.

The Erawan Medical Centre in Bangkok said 16 people had been killed and 141 wounded in the latest fighting.

"It's unlikely to end quickly," said a source close to army chief Anupong Paochinda, fearing more protesters would arrive to surround and attack soldiers.

"There will be several skirmishes in the coming days but we are still confident we will get the numbers down and seal the area," added the source, who declined to be identified by name.

The number of protesters in the main encampment appeared to have dropped overnight but several thousands remained, many singing and listening to speeches by protest leaders. Some leaders, including the movement's chairman, have disappeared.

Protesters are barricaded behind walls of kerosene-soaked tyres, sharpened bamboo staves, concrete blocks and razor wire.

Before fighting began on Thursday with the shooting of a renegade general allied with the protesters, the two-month crisis had already killed 29 people and wounded about 1,400 -- most of whom died during an April 10 gun battle in Bangkok's old quarter.

The fighting is the latest flare-up in a polarising five-year crisis between a royalist urban elite establishment, who back the prime minister, and the rural and urban poor who accuse conservative elites and the military's top brass of colluding to bring down two elected governments.

Those governments were led or backed by exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, a graft-convicted populist billionaire ousted in a 2006 coup who is a figurehead of the protest movement.

The red shirts and their supporters say the politically powerful military influenced a 2008 parliamentary vote, which took place after a pro-Thaksin party was dissolved, to ensure the British-born, Oxford-educated Abhisit rose to power.

Five-year Thai credit default swaps, used to hedge against debt default, widened by more than 30 basis points on Friday -- the biggest jump in 15 months -- to 142 basis points.

"With gun battles and grenades going off, investors will look elsewhere," said Danny Richards, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"I don't think many see the end of this protest as the end of the crisis. When there's an election, either side will reject the legitimacy of the other and we'll be back to square one."

Iran Analysis: The Economic Squeeze and the Real Sanctions Story (Colvin)

Ross Colvin writes for Reuters:

The Obama administration is waging a largely behind-the-scenes campaign to convince foreign companies that it is becoming too politically risky for them to do business with an increasingly isolated Iran.

On the world stage, the United States and its allies are aggressively pushing for new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. Out of the public eye, it has dispatched a top U.S. Treasury official to foreign capitals to talk to governments, financial regulators, banks and business leaders.

The Latest from Iran (14 May): The Meaning of the Strike?

Stuart Levey, the under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, is armed with U.S. intelligence on how Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is controlling a growing swath of Iran's economy and is setting up front companies to try to evade sanctions.


His mission is part of a multi-pronged U.S. effort to tighten the screws on Iran, running parallel to the drive for fresh U.N. sanctions.

Levey, a silver-haired former white-collar criminal lawyer appointed in 2004, has been successful in persuading foreign banks to cut ties with Iran. Now, he is widening his focus to include service providers, insurers and manufacturers.

"We view the business community as an ally and we talk to them in that sense. We have information regarding Iranian illicit conduct that they might not have, and we provide them with the advantage of our viewpoint so they can better assess their own risks," Levey told Reuters in an interview.

Since March a spate of foreign companies have announced plans to cut, suspend or curb ties with Iran, including oil majors Eni, LUKOIL and Royal Dutch Shell, Indian refiner Reliance Industries, U.S. construction and mining equipment maker Caterpillar and luxury German carmarker Daimler.

Accounting giants KPMG, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, and Ernst & Young have also declared themselves free of any business ties to Iran.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office on Wednesday identified seven foreign companies involved in Iran's energy sector between 2005 and 2009 that had received U.S. government contracts. It had not probed whether any laws had been broken in their dealings with Iran.

ASSESSING THE IMPACT

"There is a tide setting in against doing trade with Iran and it is just becoming more difficult for everyone involved," said Philip Roche, London-based partner in the shipping disputes and risk management team with law firm Norton Rose.

It is hard to assess the economic impact of companies cutting their exposure. Experts say it depends on the type of business, but U.S. officials say the collective action is significant.

"As a result of our efforts to impose additional multilateral sanctions on Iran, as well as Iran's own defiance, international companies are increasingly coming to the correct conclusion that the risks of doing business with Iran are high and have announced that they are withdrawing from Iran," White House National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said.

The U.S. government claims no direct credit for the rash of company announcements, but a German equities analyst said he believed the decision by German engineering conglomerate Siemens in January not to accept further orders from Iran was at least partly due to government pressure.

Levey, however, portrays himself as a messenger and takes issue with any suggestion that companies have been pressured into doing Washington's bidding through threats of punitive action.

"Some people think it's a better storyline to say we twist people's arms. But we don't," he said.

"One of the things that is changing is a growing awareness of the role that the IRGC is playing in the Iranian economy."

Businesses, however, will also be mindful of the huge settlements that Britain's Lloyds TSB Bank and Switzerland's Credit Suisse agreed to in December after facing charges of violating U.S. laws on doing business with countries like Iran.

COMPETITORS CAN MOVE IN

The decision by companies such as Caterpillar to instruct non-U.S. subsidiaries not to sell goods to Iran will have a limited impact. As Caterpillar has pointed out, it cannot stop its products from being sold on in the secondary market.

Competitors can also move in to fill the vacuum left by the companies, said Fariborz Ghadar, an Iran expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Ghadar said the decision by major oil companies to cut ties, however, was devastating. While Iran has the world's third-biggest oil reserves, it desperately needs foreign investment in its energy sector to improve refining capacity.

Levey is not the only one talking to business.

New York advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, which keeps a database of companies doing businesses with Iran, has waged a letter-writing campaign urging them to cut their ties.

"If we have 10, 15, 20 of these multinational companies pull out of Iran it will force that economy into the red zone," said the group's president Mark Wallace, a former ambassador under President George W. Bush.
Analysts warn that putting too much pressure on the Iranian economy could backfire, giving President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a scapegoat for Iran's current economic ills.
"The broad goal is not to completely squelch all Iranian business activity," Levey countered. "My job is to design measures that will have the desired impact on the government of Iran and minimize the impact on the average Iranian citizen."
But, he added: "It's hard to get it surgically precise."

The Latest from Iran (11 May): Opposition Surfaces

2220 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A Tehran appeals court has upheld the guilty verdict against Hamzeh Karami, manager of the Jomhouriyat website. Karami will serve one year in prison for propaganda against the system and 10 years in prison and permanent dismissal from government services for embezzlement.

Karami was acquitted of collaboration and collusion with to disrupt national security, which would have added five years to his jail term.

NEW Iran Document: Maziar Bahari’s Response to His 13-Year (and 74-Lash) Sentence
NEW Iran Special: A Renewal of Protest for 12 June?
UPDATED Iran Video: Protest Against Ahmadinejad at Shahid Beheshti University (10 May)
Iran Background Video: Protest in Kurdistan Over Political Prisoners
Latest from Iran (10 May): Will the Executions Matter?

1905 GMT: Behave Yourselves! Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has said police will deal firmly with those who violate socially accepted standards, including disregard for the Islamic dress code: “As the president has ordered and the people have demanded, police will take firm action against those who break the norms."


1555 GMT: Getting over the MediaFails. I was considering an entry about a series of media trainwrecks in Iran coverage --- Bronze Medal to CNN's Rick Sanchez, as the broadcaster decided to notice opposition because of yesterday's 8-minute video from the Shahid Beheshti University protest, for his statement that "five demonstrators died" on Sunday; Silver Medal to Reuters for simply dressing up the Islamic Republic News Agency press release on Sunday's executions; Gold Medal to The Huffington Post for skipping Iran coverage in favour of a food-fight between Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett and their critics.

But why spend the time and energy on failures? Instead, we have posted the response of journalist Maziar Bahari to his 13-year, 74-lash sentence by an Iranian court.

1515 GMT: The Executions. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement denouncing Sunday's hangings as a demonstration of the "extreme provocative and violent rule of the regime".

1345 GMT: Promise of the Day. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of corruption by leading members of Parliament, has reportedly said in a government meeting: "If one of these frauds is confirmed, I'll cut off my hand."

1335 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in the run-up to 12 June, coming off the political fence? Speaking to reformist youth, Rafsanjani reporting said that the imprisonment of “concerned critics” of the government will enhance people’s awareness of the situation and stressed that “silence” in the face of political issues is unacceptable.

Rafsanjani, according to Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh, said that arrests have made a significant number of people “more persistent” and added, “Do not lose heart!.....When you enter political activism, you should not think that the equations are simple and the matters will be resolved with a few demonstrations.”

1332 GMT: The Executions. Human Rights Activists News Agency has posted a report with pictures and video of a demonstration in Washington DC against the hanging of 5 Iranians on Sunday. The National Iranian American Council has issued a statement condemning the executions.

Pictures have also emerged of a protest in Iraq's Sulaimaniya.


1330 GMT: Sniping at Ahmadinejad. In another show of defiance, the Iranian Parliament has pronounced that 11 rules of implementation of the Ahmadinejad Government, covering areas such as money laundering and budget reform, are illegal.

1320 GMT: Khamenei's Man Attacks. The Supreme Leader's vice-deputy to the Revolutionary Guard, Hojetoleslam Muhammad Bagher-Zolghadr, has declared that Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, a hate figure for many in the regime, wanted to become Ayatollah Khomeini's successor and that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is seeking "to be a pillar of Revolution".

1315 GMT: Video Game Corner. Rah-e-Sabz, citing the Islamic Republic News Agency, claims that a new computer game, "Fighting Sedition", has been released. It is supposedly based on a fighter aircraft attacking targets that look like opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami.

1154 GMT: Economy Watch. The government has announced that implementation of the Ahmadinejad subsidy cuts will begin on 21 May.

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Medical student Maryam Abbasinejad, arrested on 2 May, has been released. It is unknown whether the decision by the authorities is linked to a letter from 60 professors from the Tehran University of Medical Sciences to the university’s president, calling for the freeing of Abbasinejad.

1040 GMT: An EA correspondent, drawing on information from inside Iran, reports that it was not only Shahid Beheshti University students who came out to demonstrate against President Ahmadinejad. The university's lecturers were also present in significant numbers.

0855 GMT: The US Hikers. International media are buzzing about the announcement by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that Iran will give visas to the mothers of three US citizens arrested along the Iraqi border last July to visit their children in a Tehran prison.

It is just our speculation, but there may be a connection to Iran's apparent efforts to get a deal, possibly brokered by Turkey and Brazil, on uranium enrichment. There is likely to be more on this later today or tomorrow....

0825 GMT: Panic Stations. Here's the first paragraph ofthis morning's story from The Times of London: "Iran is focused on improving a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles but needs at least four more years to be able to target London and more than a decade to threaten the East Coast of the United States, a leading think-tank [the International Institute for Strategic Studies] said yesterday."

However, that measured conclusion is not nearly dramatic enough for The Times' editors. Their headline? "UK could be target for Tehran missiles ‘in four years’".

0800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Reuters reports, from the Iranian newspaper Siyaset-e-Rouz, the statement of Minister of Oil Masoud Mirzakemi that Iran needs $25 billion of investment to develop its oil and gas industry.

0715 GMT: Government Gets Tough on Itself! Khabar Online reports that the Government is to fine officials 1000 Toman (just over $1) for each minute they are late to meetings.

0710 GMT: The Economic Battle. After his venture to New York, President Ahmadinejad finally returned to domestic contests yesterday, declaring over his subsidy cut plan, "I stand to the end for justice and will not be fooled by anyone."
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0700 GMT: The Executions. Political prisoners in the Gohardasht facility have published a letter of solidarity with those executed on Sunday.

0635  GMT: More Hangings? In the aftermath of Sunday's hanging, The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran warns that at least sixteen Kurdish detainees and eleven post-election protestors are in danger of unannounced, sudden executions.

0625 GMT: Considering the context of the executions and yesterday's response, an EA reader sends us a discussion in Sweden including Hassan Shariatmadari and Farrokh Negahdar on "Perspectives of the Green Movement".

0620 GMT: Silencing the Families of the Executed. Fereshteh Ghazi reports that the Iranian authorities are refusing to release the bodies of the five Iranians put to death on Sunday to their families, who are waiting in front of Evin Prison. Ghazi claims that the families are being told they must sign an oath that there will be no protests in their towns.

0615 GMT: Ghazi on Ahmadinejad and Journalists. We notice video of a speech by Fereshteh Ghazi, one of the foremost chroniclers and analysts of Iran, at George Washington University. In the extract, she considers the Government's attempt to "frame" political discussion with its repression of journalists.


Fereshteh Ghazi (@iranbaan) from Mehran Divanbaigyzand on Vimeo.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with a special analysis, "The Renewal of Protest Before 12 June?", considering the catalyst of Sunday's executions of five Iranians, the anti-Ahmadinejad demonstration at Shahid Beheshti University, and the wider political context.

The Latest from Iran (4 May): Beyond the "Main Event"

2005 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. University student Masoud Babapour has been sentenced to two years in prison.

1945 GMT: Mahmoud's Big Show. We've posted a video and transcript of President Ahmadinejad's extended appearance on US television on Monday.

1830 GMT: Economy Watch. Writing for Reuters, Alistair Lyon draws on the observations of several analysts to offer an overview of the Ahmadinejad Government's position: "Iran's home-grown economic ills pose a knottier challenge for its hardline leaders than possible new United Nations or U.S. sanctions over its nuclear programme."

NEW Iran Video and Transcript: Ahmadinejad on Charlie Rose (3 May)
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Movement Has Spread Everywhere”
NEW Iran: Bin Laden Lives in Tehran Shocker!
Latest Iran Video: Clinton & Ahmadinejad Speeches at UN Nuke Conference (3 May)
The Latest from Iran (3 May): Mahmoud’s Road Show

1515 GMT: The UK Deportation Case. The partner of Bita Ghaedi, who fled Iran because of alleged domestic abuse and who has participated in protests against the regime, writes that her appeal against deportation has been refused by British authorities.

Ghaedi is booked on a Wednesday flight to Tehran. Her last chance against deportation is a request for a court injunction.


1510 GMT: Today's Karroubi Contribution. We have posted Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement, "The Movement Has Spread Everywhere", in a separate entry.

1440 GMT: "A Proud and Progressive Iran". Former President Mohammad Khatami, meeting former members of Parliament, has said:

We have always wanted and still want a proud and progressive Iran which also follows the moral, Islamic and humanitarian rulings; the spirit of reformism that we have talked about is the same thing....We are repeating again that the most important steps are the release of prisoners, avoiding unjustifiable conflicts, easing of the [political] atmosphere based on the Constitution, freedom of political and social activities, providing freedom of speech and thought, moving toward joyful and healthy elections and valuing criticism, and, on top of everything, defending the dignity, respect, freedom, and fundamental rights of the society and people.

1230 GMT: Here We Go Again.

Step 1: Iran Comes Under Pressure Over Its Nuclear Programme (as in this week's US approach to the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Conference)

Step 2: The Iranian Military Puffs Out Its Chest and Says --- As Much to Iran's People As to the Rest of the World --- "Don't Mess With Us. We're Very Tough" (as in today's declaration of "new naval war games" in the Persian Gulf and the assurance that it had photographed a US aircraft carrrier or the Iranian Minister of Defense blessing a new production line for an anti-aircraft missile).

Step 3. The International Media Jump to the Iranian Bell and Bark "Crisis, Crisis, Crisis".

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (At the Movies). The American entertainment writer Anthony Kaufman, who organised the petition by prominent Hollywood filmmakers calling for the release of Iranian director Jafar Panahi from Evin Prison, has an update on his blog.

Kaufman summarises the campaign and notes the response of Tabnak in Iran: "“It’s up to the government security agencies and the justice system to counter such poisonous media activities against the regime with providing clear explanation of the reasons for Panahi’s arrest and offering all the available evidence and documents against him. They should prevent such subversive behaviors against the regime and not allow the foot soldiers of the West’s media war to distort the truth by portraying Panahi as being innocent.”

1030 GMT: Iran and the Status of Women. The controversy over Iran's accession to the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women rumbles on. Mission Free Iran has launched a vigorous campaign to rebuke the UN and those governments, including the US, who voted by acclamation to seat Iran.

0745 GMT: Tuesday Funnies. Fox News gives us a present of one of the worst --- and thus funniest --- pieces of "investigative reporting" we've seen recently. We've posted it in a separate entry: "Bin Laden in Tehran Shocker".

0740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz alleges that a dubious record has been set with more than 40 years of prison time handed out to political detainees in a single day.

RAHANA reports new accusations against journalist Emaduddin Baghi, with bail set at 200 million Tomans (more than $200,000).

[More on Baghi: see "A Birthday Message from His Daughter"]

The website also claims Professor Davoud Soleymani is in critical condition in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

0730 GMT: Greens and Azeris. Yesterday we summarised the discussion between between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Iranian Azeri reformists on how to maintain communications and promote the demands of the opposition. A couple of additional points of interest.

The meeting took place in Tehran, which brings to mind how the Iranian regime blocked Mousavi from traveled to Tabriz, the largest city in Iranian Azerbaijan, on 22 Bahman (11 February). So if Mir Hossein can't go to the mountain, then....

In addition to seeing Mousavi, the Azeri delegation also met Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Behzad Nabavi, and Mohsen Mirdamadi.

0725 GMT: Preventing Unity? Reformist member of Parliament Majid Nasirpour has claimed that "hardliners" are trying to cut any relationship between moderates and reformists.

0720 GMT: Cover-Up. Reformist member of Parliament Jamshid Ansari has repeated his claim that the Majlis had no "truth-finding commission" to investigate the June 2009 attacks on Tehran University's dormitories and that no report will be produced.

0635 GMT: Kahrizak Reopened? A few days ago, Mehdi Khazali, who holds markedly different views from his father, the "conservative" Ayatollah Khazali. asserted that Kahrizak Prison --- notorious for the abuse and death of post-election detainees and supposedly closed on orders of the Supreme Leader --- had been reopened under a different name.

The allegation is now getting political traction: the reformist member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari has asked for an immediate Majlis investigation.

0630 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz, claiming sources close to the Expediency Council, claims former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (the chairman of the Council) is continuing to refuse his role as a Tehran Friday Prayer leader for two reasons: "unkindnesses of officials" and fear of possible uproar and harm to demonstrators.

Rafsanjani last presided at Friday Prayers in mid-July.

0625 GMT: Parliament's New Campaign. Another front in the contest between the Majlis and the Ahmadinejad Government is opened, as MPs propose the impeachment of Minister of Interior Mohammad Ali Najjar for "militarisation" of his Ministry and ineptitude.

0620 GMT: Meeting Across the Fence. How was it that Mehdi Karroubi engaged in friendly conversation last Saturday with his opponents, such as Ali Larijani, at the memorial service for the father of Minister of Culture Mohammad Hosseini? Peyke Iran offers context with a profile of four Hosseini brothers with very different political views.

0615 GMT: The Stabbing Victim. An update on Amir Kabir University professor and former minister Ahmad Motamedi, who was stabbed in his office yesterday. He is out of danger after four hours of surgery. Rah-e-Sabz reports he was attacked with a long dagger (ghameh), cutting the artery between liver and kidney.

0540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that the manager of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign amongst Tehran students, Ali Vaghfi, has been sentenced to one year in prison with a further five years suspended.

0530 GMT: The showpiece speeches of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hillary Clinton (videos in a separate entry) have been delivered at the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The expected grandstanding came from both sides: Ahmadinejad trying to bury the discussion of further sanctions on Iran and seeking to score big in the Middle East with his denunciation of the US and Israel and 11-point proposal for global disarmament, Clinton castigating Tehran's "diversion" while holding out the prospect of "weapons-free zones" in Africa and the South Pacific.

There was no commitment, however, to disarmament in the Middle East, the one initiative that could make a real difference in the US-Iran case, because of the one word missing from Clinton's speech (clue: it begins with an "I"). So one can only hope that the month-long conference, if it is to have any success, gets beyond yesterday's reduction to a US-Iran scrap and that attention to "Iran" goes beyond the nuclear focus.

The Latest from Iran (1 May): May Day and Mayday

2030 GMT: In the Dark. Shaky journalism from The New York Times: Nazila Fathi, who is usually quite good, relies on unnamed "analysts" rather than a close look at events to make the sweeping claim:

A planned demonstration in which Iranian teachers and workers were to join reformists in an antigovernment protest failed to materialize on Saturday, apparently the result of intimidation and a large police presence.

Two Iranian opposition leaders, Mir Hussein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, had called Thursday for workers and teachers to join the reformists in a broad-based coalition.

The call went unheeded on Saturday, analysts said, largely because of government intimidation.

The article is inaccurate on a number of key points.

1. There was no call for teachers and workers to join reformists on the streets today; instead there were a series of statements calling for solidarity with the demands of those teachers and workers, highlighting Government repression and Iran's poor economic situation.

2. Mousavi and Karroubi, in particular, did not call for a demonstration today. They are looking towards 12 June, the anniversary of the election, for a public show of dissent.

3. Fathi is quite right about the show of force by the Government to deter protests, but she seems unaware of the incident at Tehran University, with students demonstrating against the visit of President Ahmadinejad, and about the series of smaller, dispersed displays of discontent in Tehran and other cities.

UPDATED Iran Video and Translation: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Deterring Protests, “Greeting” Ahmadinejad (1 May)
NEW Iran: US Filmmakers Demand “Free Jafar Panahi”
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Green Movement is Growing in Society”
UPDATED Iran: Tehran, Defender of Rights (Don’t Mention Boobquake), Joins UN Commission on Status of Women
Latest Iran Video: Shirin Ebadi on the Human Rights Situation (23 April)
The Latest from Iran (30 April): The Heaviness of the Atmosphere

1945 GMT: May Day Updates. We've fixed the coding of today's videos (with the transfer to Disqus comments, our YouTube plug-in is temporarily disabled), and we've posted an updated version of Mir Hossein Mousavi's message, now with English subtitles.


1900 GMT: Your May Day Irony. The top news on Fars News' website for much of the afternoon? May Day protests...in Europe, with "hundreds of thousands of workers" protesting economic conditions.

The story was so important to Fars that it must have diverted staff from its domestic bureau to European coverage, for curiously, there is no mention of any May Day demonstration in Iran.

1620 GMT: The scale of the regime crackdown on dissent has been evident in the limited footage coming out of Iran today. What has gotten out has been shaky film shot at odd angles to avoid detection by the authorities.

We've posted severa clips of the security presence and of students allegedly chanting defiantly as President Ahmadinejad came to Tehran University.

1400 GMT: Clashes? Reza Sayah again quotes a Tehran witness, "Security forces clashed with about 200 protesters chanting 'Death to the Dictator' at the Ministry of Labor." An Iranian activist is also reporting this news.

1330 GMT: May Day. CNN's Reza Sayah quotes Tehran witnesses, "Thousands of security personnel from Revolution [Enghelab] Square to Ministry of Labor. No sign of protests."

1310 GMT: Quote of the Day. "For a Government so sure that Green Movement is over and done with, they have a lot of security out on the streets."

A shaky, secretly-shot video offers apparent confirmation.

1300 GMT: Containing Rights. Human rights activist Hassan Assadi Zeidabadi has been banned from leaving Iran.

1230 GMT: Confirmation? Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that "thousands" of workers protested in Qazvin, 100 miles northwest of Tehran. Another story asserts that "hundreds" have demonstrated in Tabriz against unemployment and poverty.

The website also claims that Tehran University students protested when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived unexpectedly on the campus.

1130 GMT: May Day. We are following the stream of stories of protests in Tehran and in other Iranian cities such as Shiraz and Qazvin. At this point, we are treating the reports as unconfirmed.

0945 GMT: May Day. The first claimed picture of a protest comes from Shiraz.

0930 GMT: Rights and Wrongs. We've posted a separate entry on the petitions by US filmmakers, including Stephen Spielberg, Robert Redford, and Martin Scorsese, calling for the released of their detained Iranian colleague Jafar Panahi.

We have an update on Tehran and the UN Commission on the Status of Women, featuring two of the many statements condemning the vote for Iran's membership.

And we note an open letter from 20 journalists and bloggers in Evin Prison, complaining that their conditions worsen day by day.

0810 GMT: May Day Build-Up. Ahead of possible demonstrations this afternoon, Kalemeh is reporting a growing security presence in Tehran, especially at Enghelab and Azadi Squares. Forces are also guarding the Ministry of Labour on Azadi Street and the Ministry of Interior at Fatemi Square.

Kalemeh also reports that many employers have threatened to fire workers who protest.

0735 GMT: May Day Statements. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front Participation has issued its statement proclaiming that the workers' and Green movements will open the way to a better future.

An analysis in Rah-e-Sabz connects the seeking of justice with the seeking of freedom through the demands of labour. It does so in part to deny that the Green Movement is based solely on the "middle class" and, in fact, is built on links with workers.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Minister of Economy Mehdi Ghazanfari has said that stocks of cooking fat, rice, and meat will be built up to prepare for the implementation of subsidy cuts.

That sounds like sensible preparation, but building up stocks means less goods available for týsale, which in turn means higher prices.

0725 GMT: Rumour of Day. Aftab News --- which is not a reformist outlet --- claims that future elections will be manipulated to exclude Ahmadinejad's "conservative" rivals: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

0715 GMT: Mahmoud and Cyrus. President Ahmadinejad's tactics on the eve of May Day? In a speech on Kish Island, he invoked Cyrus, the famous Persian ruler, and said that Iran is waging a fight over "ethics and humanity".

Ahmadinejad added, ethically and humanely, "Today Iran is the world's most powerful nation. We like all nations and are glad to see their prosperity. However, we have a powerful fist that will knock the teeth out of anyone."

0705 GMT: A Deal on Uranium? Reuters dares to go public with the story we've been following for weeks: "Turkey and Brazil are trying to revive a stalled atomic fuel deal with Iran in an attempt to help the Islamic Republic avoid new U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program, Western diplomats said on Friday."

With Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Brazilian officials both paying visits to Tehran recently, that's not exactly a shocker. The mystery is whether the US Government supports the initiative.

Reuters gives the impression that Washington is opposed, but I'm not so sure. Their big quote is "Nobody's going to stand in the way of serious negotiations. But is Iran serious about this offer? Or is it another attempt to stall for time and avoid sanctions, as has been the case before?" That comes from a "Western diplomat", however, not necessarily an American one and not necessarily one who is close to the discussions.

We'll watch closely and will have an analysis if there are further developments.

0645 GMT: We'll keep eyes open today for rallies and protests on the international day for workers. Indications up to May Day are that, with the tight grip the regime is trying to maintain, demonstrations will be small and diverse, rather than a concentrated gathering.

In recent days, new charges have been brought against Mansour Osanloo, the detained leader of the Tehran and Municipality Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate. Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, has been summoned to appear in court, and other activists have been sentenced. Five members of the Iranian Free Workers Association have been summoned to the Intelligence Office in Sanandaj in Iranian Kurdistan. And, on the eve of National Teachers Day, leaders and members including Alireza Hashemi, Ali Akbar Baghani,and Mohammad Beheshti Langarudi, and Tofigh Mortezapour have been detained.

That does not mean, of course, that anger, frustration, and demands have abated. Let the day unfurl.