Israel-Palestine: Arab League Supports Indirect Talks (Yenidunya)

The Arab League nations backed indirect talks between Israelis and Palestinians on Saturday. Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa told reporters: "The timeframe of indirect talks will not change from what was agreed to in March, and there will be no change from indirect talks to direct talks until after the outcome of indirect talks has been assessed."

Middle East Analysis: Washington’s Latest Stick for an Israel-Palestine Solution

The top Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, filled in the detail on the "assessment of the indirect talks", "If Israel builds one house in the West Bank, Palestinians will immediately stop the negotiations." Arab foreign ministers added East Jerusalem to the agenda, warning that peace efforts would collapse if Israel continued to build settlements in the city as well as in the West Bank.



The Arab League, who gave the U.S. four months from March for so-called proximity talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, said that it had received "positive signs" from the United States.

Hamas, the Palestinian leadership in Gaza, criticized this support: "The endorsement and support for the Arab Committee to resume negotiations again, even after the occupation continues with its policies and settlements, is considered as accepting the situation as it is, and a new umbrella for it to commit more crimes and violations against the Palestinian people."

In contrast, Israeli officials welcomed the League's endorsement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement, "Israel is willing to renew negotiations with the Palestinians at any time and at any place." President Shimon Peres added:

There is a readiness in Israel to solve the obstacles at the basis of peace negotiations. It took a little longer than we hoped for and problems are not yet solved but at least the way to handle them is open.

Israel has adopted the principle of two states for two peoples, and we extend our hand for an honest peace with our neighbours.

For now, Israeli officials are not saying a word about settlement construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

On Sunday, Palestinian Authority Secretary General Tayeb Abdel Rahim said that U.S. President Barack Obama has assured the PA that Washington is committed to a two-state solution and that a future Palestinian state will be independent and have territorial continuity. Rahim added that the U.S. vowed to assign blame publicly to any party that takes provocative actions or jeopardizes prospects for peace.

London-based Arab-language newspaper Al-Hayat claims that Obama has promised Abbas a prolonged Israeli settlement freeze in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The report asserts that Saeb Erekat told the Arab League ministers Saturday night that Obama made his promise off the record in order to avoid conflict with right-wing factions in Israel.

The Latest from Iran (2 May): Persistence

2115 GMT: Show of Support. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited reformist leader Mostafa Tajzadeh as he continues to undergo medical treatment on his back.

Tajzadeh was supposed to return to prison last week to serve his six-year sentence, but this has been delayed because of his medical situation.

2010 GMT: MediaWatch. Last night we closed by noting how The New York Times mangled the story of Iran's May Day, drawing from one "analyst" rather than any apparent recognition of events to claim --- erroneously --- that the Iranian people had not responded to opposition calls for public demonstrations.

It is only fair, therefore, that we give a tip of the hat to the Los Angeles Times, which does notice the video clips that, despite regime efforts, got through to show "opposition vitality".

NEW Iran Analysis: The Scattering of Protest is Still Protest
NEW Iran Eyewitness: “The Movement Is Still Strong and Vibrant”
UPDATED Iran Video and Translation: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
Latest Iran Video: Deterring Protests, “Greeting” Ahmadinejad (1 May)
Iran: US Filmmakers Demand “Free Jafar Panahi”
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Green Movement is Growing in Society”
UPDATED Iran: Tehran, Defender of Rights (Don’t Mention Boobquake), Joins UN Commission on Status of Women

1520 GMT: Karroubi Watch. BBC Persian posts a series of photographs, dated yesterday, that it says are from the memorial service for the father of the Minister of Culture, Mohammad Hosseini. They show Karroubi meeting Ali Larijani, 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and Hossieni. Karroubi is being treated warmly, far from a leader of sedition, as he has been labelled by the "hardline" press.


1510 GMT: The UK Deportation Case. Actvists report that the deportation to Tehran of Bita Ghaedi, originally scheduled for 20 April but delayed because of the Icelandic volcanic ash, has now been rescheduled for 5 May. Ghaedi, who fled Iran because of alleged domestic abuse, claims she will be under threat from Tehran authorities if she is forcibly returned.

1445 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Make of these comments what you will. In a meeting with members of the academic section of Parliament for National Teachers Day, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani said:

When it comes to making laws and passing bills, the Parliament is in charge and the interference and meddling of other organizations can seriously damage the position and dignity of the Parliament....Actions that are either above the law or are against the law by any individual, any group or organization seriously damages the unity, solidarity and trust of the people.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ali Akbar Soroush, university lecturer and member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front central council in Mazandaran province, has been released on bail after 47 days of solitary confinement.

1200 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard, who has been prominent in his defence of those facing the death penalty, has been arrested for propaganda against the regime.

1000 GMT: Teachers Day News. Rah-e-Sabz, writing of students commemorating Teachers' Day while many of those teachers are behind bars, reviews dismissals, detentions, and death sentences.

On a happier note, the website features Green students of Zahedan University thanking and congratulating staff with flowers and cookies on May Day.

0940 GMT: The Effect of the Election. An interesting radio roundtable with MPs Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, and Mehdi Kuchakzadeh. As one might expect, the reformist Tabesh said "there is no balance" in Iranian politics and society when all protesters are imprisoned and all media are in the hand of a particular group. However, Bahonar --- far from a reformist --- asserted that the mistakes of the Guardian Council had a "negative effect" and spread doubt over the 2009 Presidential election.

0830 GMT: Parliament v. President. Key conservative MP Ahmad Tavakoli has launched another assault on the Ahmadinejad economic development plan. Elyas Naderan, another conservative critic, has repeated his allegation --- alluding to 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi --- that "corrupt economic organisations linked to the government have been installed".

On the "outside", Rah-e-Sabz has a long analysis alleging that the oil ministry in is the hands of an official, Ahmad Ghalebani, linked to Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Ghalebani has allegedly excluded former Ministers (and Ahmadinejad opponents) like Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie and Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi and appointed personnel with dubious financial records. The report, which is echoed in Khabar Online, adds that both Ejeie and Naderan have complained about Ghalebani's corruption.

0755 GMT: Get Political, Revolutionary Guards. The Supreme Leader's liaison with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, has denied that Imam Khomeini said the IRGC should not enter politics.

0750 GMT: A May Day Declaration. The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution's May Day statement has demanded the unconditional release of all labour activists and unionists from prison.

0745 GMT: An Interesting Denial (and Un-Denial). Secretary of the Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has used Khabar Online to deny a report in Der Spiegel, "He knows that even his six bodyguards will be no protection if he sticks his neck out too far in Ahmadinejad's republic." Rezaei said, "Perhaps through making such allegations, some are trying to disrupt the peaceful climate and endanger cooperation, brotherhood of Iranian people."

Rezaei, however, said nothing about this portion of the article: "Like [Mehdi] Karroubi, Rezaei refers to 'Dr. Ahmadinejad' and avoids using the word president. And like Karroubi the reformer, Rezai the conservative says: "It can't go on like this."

0740 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Tehran Times offers an optimistic counter to recent stories of countries limiting their imports of Iranian oil: exports from Tehran to Japan rose 21 percent in March.

0720 GMT: Iran and Women's Rights. A twist in the tale of Iran's successful attempt at membership on the UN Commission on the Status of Women, as the Canadian Government issued a sharp criticism:

“It is the Government of Canada’s understanding that Iran was acclaimed as a member of the UN Commission on the Status of Women as part of an uncontested slate endorsed by the Asian regional group, of which Canada is not a member,” [Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon] said. “We deplore this development but will use Iran’s membership on this body to take the Iranian authorities to task for their systemic human rights violations. We have done so in the United Nations General Assembly. We have done so in the United Nations Human Rights Council, and at every opportunity will continue to do so publicly.”

It will be interesting to see if the US, one of the countries who voted Iran on to the Commission by acclamation, takes any notice.

0710 GMT: Look Over There! Yesterday we noted that Fars News was so busy covering international May Day protests that it forgot to notice them at home.

Step up, Press TV. Its feature story is "May Day Turns Violent in Berlin", but it does have a bit of domestic coverage:

“We have documents that prove [Washington] is the root of world terrorism. It has been aiding and abetting extremist groups over the past years,” said President Ahmadinejad in a Saturday ceremony marking World Labor Day.

Curiously, however, the Press TV correspondent who noticed this ceremony missed the students who "greeted" the President. Indeed, the correspondent seems, in his/her haste to note the US and world terrorism on "World Labor DaY", all of Iran's workers.

0700 GMT: We begin today with two features: Scott Lucas offers an analysis of the events of May Day, "The Scattering of Protest is Still Protest", and we have an eyewitness account from an Iranian who recently returned to the country for a month, "The Movement is Still Strong and Vibrant".

On to National Teachers Day today to see if it brings further signs of protest despite the regime's dedicated attempt to put dissent beyond vision, if not to crush it altogether.

The Times Square Car Bomb: 5 Lessons from Britain (Hewitt)

EA correspondent Steve Hewitt, one of Britain's top specialists on counter-terrorism, writes:

The media is abuzz this morning with news of a defused car bomb left in New York City's Times Square, either in an indiscriminate attempt to kill or maim random civilians, a directed attack against the building housing Viacom, the maker of South Park (under threat over its depiction of the Prophet Mohammad), or both.

What the media hasn’t noted yet are the similarities between this effort and a failed attack in London almost three years ago. In the early morning of 29 June 2007, smoke was noticed billowing out of a car parked outside of a packed nightclub in London. Inside were gas cylinders, petrol, and nails. The makeshift bomb failed to explode but the emerging smoke, as in the case in New York, brought the car to the attention of authorities.

Eventually, the plot was traced to Scotland. Two of those involved attempted another makeshift attack by ramming a vehicle packed full of petrol into a terminal at Glasgow Airport. One of the attackers was badly burned and subsequently died, while the other was arrested and later convicted and sentenced to 32 years in prison.

Points of Possible Relevance to the New York Case

1. The London and Glasgow attacks involved a small group of amateur terrorists, including doctors, with grievances against the "West", particularly over the invasion of Iraq, but, thankfully, without the expertise and training to successfully carry out the attacks.

2. Although there was media talk of Al Qa'eda and the individuals as Al Qa'eda-inspired, no links were demonstrated. For instance, the London attack did not involve a suicide attack, usually an Al-Qa'eda characteristic. The later Glasgow attack was a suicide attack out of desperation as the authorities closed in on the plot members.

This is not to rule out the possibility of at least Al-Qa'eda inspiration in the failed New York attack. Al-Qaeda recently called for more small-scale attacks, a sign of the difficulty it has had in carrying out large-scale attacks in the last few years.

3. The nature of the bomb reflects innovation caused by increasing restrictions on other materials used in more devastating attacks, such as fertilizer that went into the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.

4. The nature of this attack speaks to the inability to secure “soft” targets in free societies, but it also points to the difficulty of mounting attacks of a 9-11 scale in a post-9-11 world. The future of terrorism in western countries may well be of similar type attacks carried out by self-starters radicalized over the Internet.

5. The authorities in New York will be following up as those in London did: tracing where the SUV came from, looking for eyewitnesses who might have noticed its appearance, searching the vehicle for forensic evidence, and examining CCTV footage from the area to see who left the vehicle. If the parallel of amateurs in the London case exists in New York, considerable evidence to the identity of those responsible will have been left and arrests will soon occur. The fear of the authorities will be that other attacks may be amounted before this occurs.

Afghanistan Analysis: A Very Bad Six Months (White)

Jim White writes in The Seminal:

Congress now requires a "Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan" every six months (or, every Friedman Unit), and the latesthas very gloomy news. Here is the best spin that the Defense Department’s accompanying press release could come up with:

NEW Afghanistan Analysis: The Growth of the “Taliban Zone” (Porter)
Afghanistan: Your Guide on How to Be An Expert

Stability in Afghanistan is no longer on the decline, and most Afghans believe that despite increased violence, security actually has improved since this time last year, according to a new report Pentagon officials sent to Congress today.

Notice that "despite increased violence part"? Here is the ugly truth behind that spin:




The reality is that since the beginning of 2007, violent events in Afghanistan, by the Defense Department’s measurements, have doubled, and the trend is still decidedly in the direction of more violence.

When it comes to assessing the strengths of the insurgency, here are the bullet points:

Insurgent Strengths:

• The speed and decisiveness of insurgent information operations and media campaigns remain not only the insurgents’ main effort, but also their most significant strength.
• Organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.
• The ability to intimidate through targeted killings and threats in order to force acquiescence to their will.
• The strength and ability of shadow governance to discredit the authority and legitimacy of the Afghan Government is increasing.
• IED use is increasing in numbers and complexity; IEDs are as much a tactic and process as they are a weapon.
• Insurgents’ tactics, techniques, and procedures for conducting complex attacks are increasing in sophistication and strategic effect.

Hmmm. Doesn’t "ability to intimidate through targeted killings and threats" sound familiar? Especially if it is intended to "force acquiescence"? That sounds very much like the night raids that are a central feature of General Stanley McChrystal’s vaunted COIN strategy. Despite the knowledge that night raids are a central driving force for the recruitment of new insurgents, especially when night raids result in the the death or imprisonment of innocent civilians, here is the extent of the explanation of McChrystal’s changes to the night raid strategy:

The Night Raids Tactical Directive, issued on January 23, 2010, raises the threshold that must be achieved before a tactical night raid can be approved. The directive applies to the conduct of night raids by all conventional and SOF in Afghanistan under command of COMISAF. This directive acknowledges that the Afghan population’s judgment of our conduct and perception of our intentions will be critical in their decision to support their nation’s struggle against the insurgency. While night raids are effective and their operational value is understood, the new directive recognizes the cultural dynamics and acknowledges that night raids’ success comes at a steep cost in terms of perceptions of the Afghan population. Therefore, COMISAF directed that night raids should be executed only after all other courses of action have been considered. This directive outlines a number of the planning and execution factors that must be considered if night raids are to be conducted in order to ensure that they are tactically sound, judiciously used, and as transparent as possible.

Note the order of priorities in this description. The primary consideration is that "night raids should be executed only after all other course of action have been considered", rather than the later mention of them being "tactically sound" and "judiciously used", which presumably means that efforts should be made to eliminate faulty targeting of innocent civilians, although it would be more reassuring if they would say that directly.

Perhaps the most revealing information on where the situation in Afghanistan is headed comes in the assessment of the security situation in "key districts". Here are the data from late December compared to mid-March:



That poor security situation has a direct impact on the feelings of the local population. Here is how the New York Times described the population polling information:

In 92 districts assessed for their support of the Afghan government or their antagonism to it, not one supported the government, although the population was neutral in 44 districts. The number of districts sympathetic to the insurgency or supportive of it increased to 48 in March 2010 from 33 in December 2009.

That’s right, in the most recent half Friedman Unit, we went from 33 key districts with support or sympathy for the insurgency to 48. How’s that for an effective surge? By the Defense Department’s own analysis, the insurgency is getting stronger and increasing its efficacy at the same time that it is gaining control in more districts. How on Earth can they then claim that "Stability in Afghanistan is no longer on the decline"?

Iran Analysis: The Scattering of Protest is Still Protest

0630 GMT: It was difficult at first to get a reading of Iran's May Day, given the regime's comprehensive effort to block any dissent or evidence of opposition. Even that blanket attempt offered an important lesson, however: in the most incisive comment of the day, an observer noted, “For a Government so sure that Green Movement is over and done with, they have a lot of security out on the streets.”

Eventually, as some video --- shot in secret, with the cameraperson at risk of detention --- made its way through and reports could be cross-checked and verified: the pattern emerged.

Iran Eyewitness: “The Movement Is Still Strong and Vibrant”

The protests are scattered, but they persist.


Perhaps the most striking incident of the day was at Tehran University. the President wished to give a speech on the campus. Yet, 10 1/2 months after the election and despite his supposed legitimacy and assured rule, Ahmadinejad was trying to reach the University unannounced.

The effort failed. Someone got word, spread it, and hundreds of students gathered to give Ahmadinejad a special greeting. The chants and songs, be they of affirmation for the opposition, denuncation of the Government, or a willingness to sacrifice, cannot be mistaken: this was a persistent, demonstration that the demands for justice and accountability may be suppressed but they are not vanquished.

And on May Day, despite the Government's restrictions on unions, despite the threats of retribution, despite memories of last year's violent response by the regime, the workers also gathered. They often did so in clusters, often in muted presence rather than vocal demonstration, but they still came out.

At the end of the day, this was still a messy story. It offers no clarity on the political and economic situation in Iran. There was no resolution, despite the attempt of Iran's state media to ignore everything and of the editors of America's top newspaper to declare a victory for the regime.

Yet, in one more step along this post-election path, the significance is simply that these scattered events occurred. Turmoil continues but so does hope, repression is redoubled but so is defiance.

There will come a day of reckoning --- symbolically, the stakes are being raised for 12 June, the anniversary of the Revolution --- but this May Day was primarily to offer some sign of resistance.

Scattering of protest is far, far different from no protest at all.