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Entries in Hillary Clinton (6)

Saturday
Nov222008

Breaking News: Beyond Hillary Clinton

Today's media are likely to be dominated by the celebrity and dramatic value of the appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. All well and good for headlines and viewers, but with respect to foreign policy, almost all of this will be tangential or speculative. Two other appointments, one of which will get little coverage, deserve attention today.

The announcement with most immediate significance is Timothy Geithner, currently New York Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, as Secretary of the Treasury. Although the formula "little-known outside Wall Street" is being used to describe him, Geithner was being touted as a possible choice within days of Obama's election. He is well-respected within financial circles and won praise for his role in the bailout response to the October crisis. He is also an acolyte of Lawrence Summers, Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton, further cementing the links between the Democratic Administration of the 1990s and that of 2009.

While Geithner will get attention, given the immediacy of the economic crisis and the overload of business coverage on US television, the naming of retired Marine General James Jones as National Security Advisor is likely to come in under the radar. That's an oversight, because Jones' selection is likely to be a significant as that of Clinton.

A former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Jones was a prime candidate in the first term of the Bush Administration to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He was not selected, in part, because of clear differences with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld on how to wage the war in Iraq and on broader development of US forces.

Jones' choice, therefore, could be seen as a reaching-out to the military officers and strategists who were close to being ostracised by Rumsfeld and his civilian masterminds. The General should work well with the current Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, whom I think will stay on with Obama for at least the first months of 2009, and he is of course familiar with General David Petraeus, who is now heading US Central Command with oversight of the battles in Iraq and Afghanistan.

That, however, raises an interesting question. I think Jones is the only military officer to serve as National Security Advisor, apart from Colin Powell in the last months of the Reagan Administration. Given Obama's red-meat talk on fighting the fight in Afghanistan, can we expect a hard power emphasis coming out of the National Security Council?

Certainly, there are signals that Jones --- despite the lack of public attention to his selection --- will be more of a policy player in the Obama White House than Condi Rice was in the Bush Administration from 2001 to 2005. As sources told the Washington Post, "Obama is considering expanding the scope of the job to give the adviser the kind of authority once wielded by powerful figures such as Henry A. Kissinger."

Thursday
Nov202008

Machiavelli and Hillary Clinton

"Publius" from London writes:
Back in time when men were men, etc., etc., young Hillary Clinton put together a wonderful healthcare package which was just a bit complicated. Anyway, I recall that in the Senate hearings, a Republican senator really took her plan out to the woodshed. Having a senior moment, I just can't remember his name.

Anyway, as I love Machiavelli, I just wondered whether this self-same Republican senator was likely to get an appointment --- hands across the aisle and all that. If so, maybe he'll be the new National Security Adviser !

I find it hard to believe Hillary will be the new Secretary of State. I had her down for Health but [former Senator Tom] Daschle is the new guy there. Wonder what debt that has paid? I don't quite see what Hillary brings to the party. No doubt I will be enlightened.
Tuesday
Nov182008

It's That Clinton Woman...

On another thread, Simon T has picked up on Ewen MacAskill's headline in The Guardian of London: "Clinton to Accept Offer of Secretary of State Job". So, in the spirit of proving that I'm only 2-3 steps behind the news:

MacAskill has apparently got an inside source but little else: the Clinton lead is only the first four paragraphs --- only the first two of which offer any signficant information --- of a much longer article focusing on Obama's meeting on Monday with John McCain.

That's not to say that the story isn't possible, even likely: the spur for the coverage in The New York Times is Bill Clinton's weekend declaration, “If [Obama] decided to ask [Hillary] and they did it together, I think she’ll be really great as a secretary of state,” and confirmation that Obama advisors are reviewing Bill Clinton's finances and international activities (for possible conflict of interest issues, not illegalities, immoralities, etc.).

The story, however, is still in the realm of speculation, built around whispers and winks. The lack of public statement gets turned into yet another confirmation that the appointment must be happening. As James Carville, Bill Clinton's former spin-meister, spins it this time, "A silent phone’s sometimes as much of an indication as a ringing phone."

Yes, there is drama in the possibilities but, for now, they are overshadowing significant developments. Say, for example, the rest of that Guardian story. The Obama meeting with McCain is a singificant and shrewd move by the President-elect to work for both the symbolism and substance of Republican support for his foreign policy. The McCain who existed before the Presidential campaign --- the one who pushed for limitations on Government "enhanced interrogation", for example, and who has called for the closure of Guantanamo --- would be a big asset for the Obama Administration. As the Republican Party goes through its self-critique, the GOP's key players will be in the Congress, and any bulwark against the red-meat Republicans who still want to inflict punishment on Democrats (and Russians and Chinese and Iranians and "terrorists") will be useful.

Speculate on what might happen? Sure. But one eye on what has happened is even more useful.
Saturday
Nov152008

Fact x Importance = News: The Stories We're Watching

Top Story of the Day: Hillary or Nicolas?

Nope, it's not Senator Clinton, who may or may not be the next Secretary of State.

Nor is it the Global Financial Summit --- yet. Although President Bush welcomed the guests last night, the serious talkin' doesn't start until today. And even then, given the relatively low profile the US will have --- the Bush Administration is almost paralysed, and the Obama folks have chosen to stay in the background --- it will be up to the Europeans to make the running.

No, the surprise headline for this morning is the rocket that French President Nicolas Sarkozy sent to Washington. Or, rather, the US missiles that he is trying to hand back to President Bush.

In talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Sarkozy "joined Russia in condemning the Pentagon's plans to install missile defence bases in central Europe yesterday and backed President Dmitri Medvedev's previously ignored calls for a new pan-European security pact".

The New York Times spectacularly misses the significance, somehow deciding that it lies in "Russia Backs Off on Europe Missile Threat". Russia's feint at putting missiles on its western borders was a political manoeuvre, and to the extent that it has brought Sarkozy away from (or reinforced his existing opposition to) US missile defence, it's worked.

The French President's statement isn't a detachment of Europe from the US. His proposal is that the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe, to which both Russia and the US belong, discuss the security pact next summer.

It is, however, a distancing of France from not only missile defence but the US-preferred attempt to expand NATO's reach. That is going to prompt an immediate tangle between France and governments such as Czechoslovakia, which are still clinging to the US missile defence plan, but I suspect Sarkozy is looking to Germany for backing. And I think --- with a smile --- that will put a marker down for British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

All in all, the timing of Sarkozy's announcement should add a bit of political spice to the financial talks in the US today.

Under-noticed Story of the Day: Food rather than Rockets

The sad ritual is again being played out on the Israel-Gaza border. The Israelis have made tank raids across the border, and Palestianian groups have lobbed rockets into southern Israel. The Israelis send out their Government spokesmen and, as few US and British media outlets will speak to a Hamas representative, the narrative of Tel Aviv standing firm against Hamas-backed terror gets another paragraph.

The far-from-insignificant story behind the story is the effects of the Israeli blockade on Gaza. On Wednesday, Juan Cole highlighted a UN report that it is running out of food to distribute in the besieged area. The Washington Post in cautious terms --- "residents are warning of a humanitarian crisis because Israel has sealed the territory's borders" --- has now picked up on this, but it is The Independent of London that highlights the impact:

The Israeli blockade of Gaza has led to a steady rise in chronic malnutrition among the 1.5 million people living in the strip, according to a leaked report from the Red Cross.

Speculation of the Day: Obama and Gitmo

William Glaberson in the New York Times pens the analysis that Barack Obama's "pledge to close the detention center is bringing to the fore thorny questions under consideration by his advisers". Significantly, however, this is no comment from the Obama camp.

Adam Cohen in the NewYork Times has a more substantial development. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, in my opinion one of the most honourable men in Congress, is not going to let President Obama rest in indecision on issues such as Camp X-Ray, surveillance, and other civil rights issues:

Mr. Feingold has been compiling a list of areas for the next president to focus on, which he intends to present to Mr. Obama. It includes amending the Patriot Act, giving detainees greater legal protections and banning torture, cruelty and degrading treatment. He wants to amend the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to restore limits on domestic spying. And he wants to roll back the Bush administration's dedication to classifying government documents.

Negotiation of the Week: Talks with the Taliban?

As violence escalates in Afghanistan, The Independent of London reported on Thursday: "The Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, will today brief Gordon Brown on talks being held with the Taliban with the aim of ending the conflict in his country."

This is a continuing development. Karzai and the Pakistani Government are now pressing the option of discussions with the "moderate" Taliban. Western governments are not necessarily averse to the idea, with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates saying it should be considered. However, with the Bush Administration in a no-win position --- it gets no credit if talks eventually succeed under an Obama-led effort and it takes the rap if the discussions collapse before 20 January --- this story will be carried forward by folks outside the US.
Friday
Nov072008

Great Election Moments: The Genius who is Bill Kristol

Just in case Bill Kristol --- Weekly Standard mastermind, New York Times columnnist --- continues the "Sarah in 2012" crusade:

"If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she's going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her ... Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single democratic primary. I'll predict that right now."

William Kristol, Fox News Sunday, December 17, 2006