Analysis: The Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy Game

At first, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam on Saturday that the Palestinian Authority is considering seeking recognition from the United Nations Security Council of a Palestinian state along 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

On Sunday (which was the anniversary of the symbolic Nov. 15, 1988 declaration of independence by the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat), Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said that the Palestinian Authority is working on a two-year development plan aimed at consolidating the groundwork for independence. It was also stated that these two issues- applying to the United Nations Security Council to have the independence legitimized in the eyes of international law, and the two-year-long economic development plan- were separate issues. Fayyad said:

I know some people are concerned that this is unilateral development plan. But it seems to me that it is unilateral in a healthy sense of self-development.

However these two statements are lacking a strong vision when it comes to the realities of the region. First of all, as I stated yesterday, there is no need to guess at Washington's approach to an appeal for a unilateral demand to be recognized in the UN Security Council. Secondly, the fact that the first plan cannot be achieved overnight breaks apart the claim that they are not inter-related. Fayyad stated that they need two years in which the economic power of the Palestinian Authority can be strengthened - a plan that he hopes will weaken Israel's position and gain US support. Of course, it is not possible and not consistent with the realities Palestinians face today. Can anyone think of an economic development in the West Bank that will strengthen the Palestinian Authority politically yet weaken Tel Aviv, as if the latter has no interest in this land's economic development? Do not forget that it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been highlighting "the significance of the economic development of the West Bank"! So, the economic liberalization process of the West Bank is already in Tel Aviv's interest.

The statements from the Palestinian Authority are aimed at consolidating their position and strengthening it legitimacy in the West Bank, and are not rationally-formulated and strongly-believed plans to make progress toward peace. In other words, they have grown out domestic concerns rather than any deep and wise plans to save Palestine from Israeli occupation.

On the other side of this game, Netanyahu warned that Israel would respond to any unilateral Palestinian steps - particularly declarations of statehood - with one-sided steps of its own. He said:

There is no substitute for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and any unilateral path will only unravel the framework of agreements between us and will only bring unilateral steps from Israel's side.

At the end of the day, there is still a big question as to whether the statements of the Palestinian Authority will work as they desire them to- are they pushing Netanyahu into the corner or are they merely helping Netanyahu show the Israeli public how "uncompromising" Palestinians are following Netanyahu's continuing rhetoric that "Israel is ready to sit at the negotiating table without any pre-conditions?"

Yes, Washington is stuck in the middle of this game. However, the Obama Administration needs to work harder than ever and show its seriousness with concrete action on both sides.

Middle East Talks: Netanyahu-Sarkozy Alliance To Exclude Turkey?

On Friday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was in Paris and held a meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Assad dismissed direct talks with Israel but reiterated his country's position that "Syria is ready to talk to Israel under the mediation of Turkey." Assad said:

If Mr. Netanyahu is serious, he can send his teams of experts, we will send our teams of experts to Turkey. They can then talk, if they are really interested in peace.

Assad was trying to convert Paris's willingness to be a mediator into a stimulus to encourage Israel to start peace talks in Ankara. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu created trouble for Turkey. On Sunday, Netanyahu said:

Israel is prepared to hold negotiations without precondition with the Syrians. I prefer direct talks, but if [they are] with a mediator then it must be fair. The Turkish prime minister [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] has not strengthened his image as an objective, fair mediator.

If France is willing to serve as mediator, Israel would be willing.

Sarkozy is trying both to fix France's relationship with Israel and to gain a leverage by playing as a mediator in the Middle East; Assad's manoeuvres could not save Erdogan this time!  So, how are Assad and Erdogan going to behave now Sarkozy has the power to dynamize the peace talks between Israel and Palestine? The next moves are vitally important.

Palestine's National Holiday: A Land of Hope?

Sunday is the anniversary of the symbolic Nov. 15, 1988 declaration of independence by the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

On the Hamas side, despite an earlier decision to keep schools funded by Fatah open on independence day, it was declared that schools would be shut.

Hamas also targeted Israel with words that claimed that "Israel was trying to find pretexts to cover up its previous war crimes with a preparation of another war."

Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, director of Military Intelligence, announced last week that Hamas had launched a rocket some 60 kilometers into the sea. In other words, it meant that Hamas could hit Tel Aviv if this rocket was fired from the northern border of the Gaza Strip. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said:

These claims are part of the Israeli lies to justify a new aggression on the Gaza Strip.

Such threats are coming under the title of incitement and creating pretexts in order to commit more new crimes against Gaza and cover up the previous crimes that were committed during the last war.

However, another Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida said that he could not confirm or deny that the group had test-fired a rocket, "since such news come from the occupation [Israel]."

On the Fatah side, on Saturday, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Palestinian newspaper Al-Ayyam that the Palestinian Authority is considering seeking recognition from the United Nations Security Council of a Palestinian state along 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital. He also added that both United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Russia are supportive of this idea.

On the eve of the national independence day, on one hand, Hamas is directing its words against and trying to give a "non-aggressive" image vis-a-vis its rival party Fatah. On the other hand, Fatah is appealing to nationalist sentiments and trying to give new hope to its people. But the question is: does Washington find this idea useful as a leverage against Tel Aviv's continuing resistance to change? Such a move would strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hand in the eyes of Israeli public?

Photo Diplomacy: The Meaning Behind the Picture at the Obama-Netanyahu Meeting

Haaretz Correspondent Roey Simioni offers an interesting take on photo diplomacy in Washington.

The only photo released by the White House of the recent meeting between Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu shows both men talking seriously in a friendly and calm dinner setting. One might say that the Obama administration could have leaked a photo in which Obama is pointing his finger toward Netanyahu's face, or another pose which could raise questions regarding the atmosphere of the meeting. However this picture looks like the best of bad lot.

Here is Simioni's opinion:

A painting hangs on the wall beside the two leaders, which if Netanyahu did not see it, or saw it and did not understand its significance, then Obama, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize, must have taken the trouble to explain to him its historic importance.

Obama's message to Netanyahu, if there really was such a message, is quite clear: If you end the blood feud and make a peace of the brave, you will be remembered in history as a great leader, like Lincoln (the former president most esteemed by Obama).

In the picture, which was painted in 1865 by the artist George Peter Alexander Healy, Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, is seen conferring with William Sherman, Ulysses Grant and David Porter, the commanders of the Union army. During conversations the four men held on the River Queen steamboat on March 27 and March 28 of that year, just over a week before the end of the U.S. Civil War, they discussed the conditions of the peace treaty they would offer the defeated Confederate forces. The accord, even if it had many deficiencies, brought about the reunion of the North and South, the economic recovery of the South, the abolition of slavery and the emancipation of African Americans.

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Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "unproductive" visit to Washington, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William J. Burns said on Tuesday said that the Obama administration does not "accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements". Only days after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised Tel Aviv's "unprecedented" steps, Burns offered a correction in tone:

We consider the Israeli offer to restrain settlement activity to be a potentially important step, but it obviously falls short of the continuing Road Map obligation for a full settlement freeze.

Obama administration is committed to achieve two states living side by side in peace and security

A Jewish state of Israel, with which America retains unbreakable bonds, and with true security for all Israelis; and a viable, independent Palestinian state with contiguous territory that ends the occupation that began in 1967, that ends the daily humiliations of Palestinians under occupation, and that realizes the full and remarkable potential of the Palestinian people...