The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Difficulty of Signals

UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with “Friendship Principles”
Video: Sharif Uni Protest Against Javad Larijani (4 October)
The Latest from Iran (4 October): Waiting for Developments

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2030 GMT. Harrumph, harrumph. The Financial Times, which is vying with The Times of London to be the at-hand Government channel for "news", uses several hundred words as a backdrop for this fist-shaking from "a senior British government official":

It is important that IAEA inspectors are given access to Qom immediately. We regret that Iran is delaying this until October 25. We see no reason for a delay. What possible reason can there be for it?

Given that the IAEA and even most of the Obama Administration welcomed the agreement, one has to wonder whether this is the same "rogue" British official who gave the FT their recent non-story on "secret Iran nuclear arms plan", whether this is a concerted London effort to play "tough cop" alongside a more conciliatory US, or whether Gordon Brown's Government has decided it really doesn't want meaningful negotiations.

1945 GMT: We're not asleep. It's just a very slow night for news, and we're also suffering from a bit of fatigue after a heavy academic day.

However, I think you can look forward to some new analysis on Hashemi Rafsanjani by the morning. And we're trying valiantly to track down the video of last night's interview on CNN by Christiane Amanpour of Ray Takeyh, formerly of the National Security Council, and Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran.  (Coincidentally, I've worked with both on academic projects.)

1540 GMT: An EA correspondent hauls me up for being too quick (and optimistic) about the Green movement's web presence. Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh website has only returned (0510 GMT) in the sense that the original site, www.kalemeh.ir, redirects to a backup, www.kaleme.com, which has not updated since Qods Day.

1500 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General has denied the news, reported yesterday, that 20 prominent detainees are soon to be released. He asserted that the cases of the deatinees, including former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, reformist leaders Abdollah Momeni, Shahab Tabatabaei, and Saeed Shariati, and journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, would be handled within "the process of law".

1400 GMT: More Atomic Tourism. A helpful reader adds to our item (0620 GMT) on the Come Visit Us website for Fordo, the home of Iran's second enrichment facility: "You can also visit an observatory built 3 years ago. Location, location , location."

1350 GMT: Another Loosening of the Net? Following the report that Mousavi website Kalemeh could soon be back on-line (0510 GMT), the Etemade Melli newspaper, linked to Mehdi Karroubi, has been acquitted by a majority jury vote of complaints over its stories. This could pave the way for a resumption of the paper's publication, which was halted this summer.

1320 GMT: Mousavi Welcomed Into the Fold? Khabar Online adds to Pedestrian's excellent piece (see 0600 GMT) on the speech of judiciary official Javad Larijani at Sharif University, which called for an end to animosity against Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and welcomed Mousavi's "move inside the system".

1300 GMT: Academic Pressures. It's hard to put all together, but stories are piling up of punishment of university students and lecturers for political activity and even for challenges over academic matters. Students across Iran have been summoned to disciplinary offices, and Rooz Online writes of five law professors at Allameh Tabatabai University who have been barred from teaching.

1200 GMT: Still slow on the domestic front in Iran, so one more note on the media lemmings rushing after Sunday's New York Times mis-story on the Iran nuclear programme.

Unsurprisingly, The Times of London takes the prize for turning an already flawed report into a seven-alarm exaggeration: "Iran has the know-how to produce a nuclear bomb and may already have tested a detonation system small enough to fit into the warhead of a medium-range missile." The Times not only uses this as the pretext to reduce Sunday's press conference by IAEA head El Baradei to an afterthought but to give him a good kicking: "He will not be missed by foreign policy hawks in the US who accuse him of acquiescing in years of nuclear prevarication by Iran."

0935 GMT: All the Spin That's Fit to Print. This morning's New York Times on Iran did not repeat its Sunday spectacular of misinformation --- Iran Close to Bomb! --- going for the neutral (and factually correct) headline, "Iran Agrees to Allow Inspectors on Oct. 25".

But you can't get keep a good Government outlet down, so David Sanger (yep, him again) and Nazila Fathi, drop this into Paragraphs 5-6:

Some administration officials expressed private skepticism that Iran would ultimately prove willing to allow the kind of widespread inspections that the United States and its Western allies have in mind. They want the inspections to include several facilities that American and European officials suspect could be part of a string of covert facilities built to supply the newly revealed enrichment center near the holy city of Qum.

Sanger and Fathi fail to offer the corrective that no published US intelligence report puts forth evidence or even speculates that Iran has "a string of covert facilities". No leaked US report makes that claim. Not even the ISIS/IAEA report, which Sanger mangled on Sunday into an imminent warning that Iran had the information for The Bomb, alleges this.

I dread to think what's coming out tomorrow. Maybe it will be "Secret Government Installation for Mega-Giant Atomic Robots".

(P.S. No, it doesn't have to be this way. Simon Tisdall of The Guardian gets taken for a ride by the Sanger-Administration line, but The Associated Press, whose report runs in The Washington Post, gives the story a straightforward treatment with the El Baradei press conference and the public comments of President Obama's National Security Advisor, James Jones. They do not embellish --- and thus distort --- the story with the "on-background" spin of unnamed Administration and European officials.)

0800 GMT: Go Wide. Really Wide. Press TV, in its report on Sunday's press briefing by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, offers an unsubtle signal of the Iran Government' strategy to move negotiations far beyond direct consideration of Tehran's nuclear programme to international and regional issues: "The UN nuclear watchdog Chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, says regional and global stability can only be achieved through total nuclear disarmament."

There is no reference at all in the story to the talks over Iran's uranium enrichment.

0620 GMT: Atomic Tourism. Fancy a different kind of vacation?

The Iranian village of Fordoo, the location of the second enrichment facility, has a website full of information for the wanna-be visitor. It has the latest news --- a reassurance from Press TV that no radioactive material has been moved into the no-longer-secret enrichment plant --- a biography of the village, and an inspirational quote: "The best way to predict the future is making it."

0600 GMT: Yesterday we posted the video of student protests at Sharif University of the speech by high-level Judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani. Pedestrian has a fascinating account of the occasion. It includes Larijani's attempts to "bond" with the kids, “I was once a student, I was once a part of your gang. I was part of the same chaos," before dropping the boom on the opposition movement:

I agree with [the] statement [of protesting students that "the coup d'etat government must resign"] very much. But that coup d’état was defeated and the leader of the coup d’état was [Mir Hossein] Mousavi.

There were individuals who were part of the system and participated in the election, but on June 12th, at 11p.m. they turned their backs on the system. Their actions constitute a coup d’état . They took a very harsh tone against the government, accused it of murder, theft, lying, etc. and they used the vocabulary of thugs.

Yet by far the most intriguing passage was Larijani's response to protesting pro-Ahmadinejad students, “We must free our hearts of hate towards Mousavi, [Mehdi] Karroubi.….Because with hate, we can not tell truth from lies.” He added that Mousavi had now "said that he plans to move inside the system and right the wrongs. I think this is a step in the right direction.”

0545 GMT: Another interesting but lower-profile move this weekend. Hossein Taeb, the commander of the Basiji commander, was named a Deputy Director at the Ministry of Intelligence. While some sharper-eyed Iran-watchers noted the development, they did not consider this: given the battle this summer between President Ahmadinejad and other politicians and clerics (including the Supreme Leader?) for control of the Ministry, with the firing of more than 20 high-level officials, who claims a victory with Taeb's appointment?

Meanwhile, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi has been appointed as the new commander of the Basiji.

0510 GMT: The most intriguing development inside Iran yesterday was the statement by Hashemi Rafsanjani (see our analysis) setting out guidelines for political activity and also putting specific warnings, such as a "mysterious network" trying to undermine the Islamic Republic and the false or misleading information put out through various outlets.

Decoding Rafsanjani's elaborately framed words, the easy part is that he is telling the Iranian people: in these tense and confusing times, Trust Me. And the Supreme Leader. The one reliable source for the latest on political development are statements from the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. The one trustworthy politician, by unsubtle implication, is the former President.

But who is Rafsanjani putting off-limits with his reference to a mysterious network? Some might say the reformists, who have gone too far to unsettle the system that Rafsanjani says he will defend through a return to "unity". Others are arguing, persuasively, that the threat comes from elements within the regime, and they have support from the pointed clue about disinformation --- given that the first "National Unity Plan" came out through Fars News Agency, fed to it by person or persons unknown, the former President's most direct challengers probably hold high office somewhere inside the establishment.

Of course, Rafsanjani could be putting both sides on notice with his warnings, even as he elevates himself with his First Amongst Equals relationship with the Supreme Leader. That still leaves the biggest question, as we noted yesterday: what exactly is the plan that he favours?

Meanwhile, the Green movement has been boosted by the return of Kalemeh, the site of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign. It had been off-line for several days after the Government's crackdown on the  opposition before Qods Day.

Comments

[Afshin]

@Megan

Not that Amy needs anyone standing up for her, and allthough I agree that we should stay on topic and felt the same going through some of the posts, but I also feel that your response has a little frustration and hostility in it which is inappropriate. One of the things I like about EA is that people can write down what they want, disagree fully but not in a hostile way. Now perhaps I have misread or misunderstood the tone but to me this was a little over the top.

[ChrisE]

Scott,

I think that the US has recognised the govt's authority- in that it has not really challenged the election result or labeled AN illegitimate (this in itself was a stark contrast to what the Bush admin would have done- and a policy we all rightly applauded). The US was prepared to deal with whoever won.

Note that Marandi also said that there was broad concensus on the nuclear issue and that in this regard the system was not unsettled ;)

I do agree with you, I just wonder whether the US will ever be able to talk with a settled Iranian political system. The question is how do we define settled.
Perhaps the more pertinent variable to AN domestic legitimacy is the SL's ability to set the parameters of engagement and organise a team to deliver it.
I see no reason why US-Iranian relations cannot be, if not now but sometime in the not so distant future, compartmentalised.

After all, detente continued with China and Moscow despite a very unsettled Nixon administration (perhaps a stretched analogy!)

[Scott Lucas]

ChrisE,

I think personal reaction may be overriding my analysis here. As long as the Green movement is pressing for reform and redress on issues from democratic participation to detentions to freedom of dissent, I do not want legitimacy conferred on this Government. If Ahmadinejad had clearly won the election or ruled without such an election (as in the cases of the Soviet Union or China), but he didn't. And the protest against that manipulation of the Islamic Republic, as well as the injustices and abuses of the regime, is best supported not by US "intervention" but by a deliberate non-intervention, in this case, a clear distance from the Ahmadinejad Government.

S.

[Amy]

Scott
Your comment above helped me understand some major frustrations that were drivinriving me to write incessantly about Obama's intentions re Iran (much to Megan's dismay). I agree with large swaths of what you said but want to sleep on it for further discussion later (if it's not too disruptive-- I truely hogged the conversation today, blush. OTOH there wasn't much other conversation going on).

I strongly agree about Obama talking a stronger stand at an earlier stage during major controversies-- it's wearing me out.

I agree more with Peter & Chris about legitimizing AN, though. I'll go with MD on your assessment of Ross & add that he's the first one I thnk of when I see that NYC BS.

[Amy]

ChrisE
compartmentalised, there's the word I've been struggling for (tho I'd have spelled it differently--LOL). Agree that the govt in Iran will be unsettled indefinitely, no matter how things play out.

[ChrisE]

Scott,

I sympathise with this view. However, what you seem to be hinting at is the abandonment of engagement- a strategy advocated by almost all reputable analysts despite the long standing existence of the repressive and unjust conditions the GM currently, and courageously, protest. In its place, you suggest isolation? That's a huge reconfigurement and one that ultimately places the entire emphasis for diplomacy on encouraging domestic reform in Iran.

What is more, it makes sense morally to place the normalisation agenda above the GM's agenda. Continued hostility and isolation is no better for Iranians, especially not if more sanctions can be rallied (and they will in some form). Let alone military action. Equally, there are humanitarian benefits of engagement for other peoples- Afghanistan and Iraq. Look at how Israel uses confrontation with Iran to stall on settlements or promote war in Gaza or Lebanon.

What we have seen in Iran is the resurgence of a civil rights movement. But it is a long game- too long for the west to wait until the GM stops pressing for reform or the govt grants it. I also hold the view that civil rights movements broadly succeed in the end- usually because of internal factors rather than the actions of external states.

For four months we have seen backstreet dialogues, secret initiatives, ambigious speeches, rumour and counter-rumour. We keep looking for the decisive move, but it never comes. Four things have become apparent. 1) The GM is not going away anytime soon. 2) concessions are not coming anytime soon 3) AN is not going anywhere or backing down 4) Everyone apart from Karroubi, but especially Raf, is in it for the long game. There is a stalemate which looks unlikely to break.

Engagement cannot wait until it breaks- the political space doesn't exist and the conditions in which you suggest engagement can proceed are just too vaguely defined.

[ange paris]

I have read a very good aricle written by Anne Applebaum, a journ columnist of Washington post and Slate, entitled " de quoi l'Iran a-il peur " What is Iran frightened about ? unfortunately it's in french but I am sure you could find a translation from english

http://www.slate.fr/story/11159/de-quoi-liran-t-il-peur

[Scott Lucas]

Chris,

I appreciate all the points in the argument, and I suspect that the shrewder pro-engagement folks in the Obama Administration are reading on similar lines.

S.

[Amy]

Scott,
I think the Marandi's statement below suggests that the meeting with the US has not lent legitimacy to AN. Before these statements, Marandi had been trying to legitimize AN with polling results. When he went on to say, " they [the US] have to finally come to understand that Iran is not going to go away", and "if... they do come to respect the country", I read Iran as meaning AN... nobody thinks Iran is going to go away. Marandi sees the US admin as not recognizing AN as the rightful head of govt.

This doesn’t go down well in the United States, I know. But I think that the United States, in order to be able to move towards rapprochement, and to be able to deal with Iran, they have to finally come to understand that Iran is not going to go away and the Islamic Republic of Iran is not going to collapse. If they do come to that recognition and they do come to respect the country, then I think that rapprochement would become much more easy, and I think that the Iranians are quite willing to move in that direction.

[Thomas]

Wow. I thought yesterday was a slow day on this thread. Great debate.
Question of who is in charge of Iran? From the US perspective it has to be the Supreme Leader since he can decalre war and peace and override any legislation or executive action. Though I agree that AN is trying to usurp the authority, Ali Khamenei is stiil in overall charge and all talks will be with his office no matter what AN says in the media.
In fact the US talking with Iran should help the Greens because it puts pressure on the SL to resolve the crises he is facing. It is time for some decision making one way or another on his part and, from the news posted today (10/6) on EA, it looks like tomorrow will be an interesting day in Iran