UPDATED Iran: Rafsanjani Makes A Public Move with "Friendship Principles"

The Latest from Iran (4 October): Waiting for Developments

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UPDATE 7 October 1815 GMT: A specialist on Iranian politics adds to the debate, picking up our Tuesday item on Rafsanjani's comment to clerics, “In order to exit this crisis, we need 2 identify the ‘true culprits’ of divisions and provocations and confront them decisively.”

I think it's very important, when reading the tea leaves, to give  the larger picture. While your entry makes it sound like Rafsanjani is directing his comments at the government, reading the full report you link to makes it clear he doesn't mean the government. Rafsanjani emerged last week having pledged his support of [Ayatollah] Khamenei, and it is claimed he said that those who say there's a rift between him and Khamenei are trying to create disunity. The notion of unity in post-revolutionary Iran is more often than not used by the non-reformists as a way of indirectly criticizing the
opposition.


His talk you quote from was given to some of the clerics in the principalist faction of the parliament, and comes after he thanks them for their efforts. While the comment you quote by itself is vague enough to be something for everybody, considering his audience and his comments in the past 10 days, I think he's talking about the rumors of a rift between him
and the leader and also [denying] that he's on the side of the opposition.

UPDATE 0930 GMT: A top EA correspondent, working with information from inside Iran, is pessimistic about the impact of the Rafsanjani statement, “there seems to be very little enthusiasm over this latest communique”:

"Rafsanjani has driven many to exasperation with his infinite ambiguous language (if anything, yesterday's statement is a masterpiece in this art), and it looks like his main aim, as in July before and after his Friday prayers, seems to be that of getting his own people and the top reformists out of jail and keeping his family safe (his son Mehdi Hashemi is currently visiting Britain and his daughter Faezeh Hashemi is probably out of the country too); there is little more beyond this."

There are strong doubts that Rafsanjani will break the mould and come through with a solution that will really assuage Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Green crowd. Besides, and this is the question that keeps returning to the foreground, how much power does he really have? There is still the tendency to consider Rafsanjani as the real kingmaker, the one with the keys to all doors, the one that, given time to work it through, WILL eventually come up with the solution. My gut feeling is that Rafsanjani had this ability only in the past, and now we are past the stage that he will be listened to by all segments of the regime. He might be trying to portray himself as the deal maker he was in the past, but whether he is still so is very debatable.

UPDATE 5 October 0745 GMT: I've got back over Rafsanjani's statement, the interpretation of the EA contact who translated it, and helpful comments from our readers.

I lean towards the interpretation that Rafsanjani's reference to a "secret movement" (which I too literally translated as "mysterious" in the original post) is targeted more at challengers within the system, rather than the Green opposition. But, to ask a perhaps more important question, is this a head-on challenge to President Ahmadinejad, his political allies, and possibly the Revolutionary Guard? Has Rafsanjani "thrown down" with this statement or has he left himself enough room to say that he does not question the legitimacy of the Government but only seeks reform of its practices and policies?

The former President has posted a statement on his website, setting out these guidelines: 1) his "perfect" friendship and relationship with the Supreme Leader; 2) the pillars of the regime -- revolutionary principles, leadership, senior clerics (marjas), and the people; 3) a plan of national unity, pursued in conjunction with the Supreme Leader.

Rafsanjani adds that the only "reliable" source of news on the regime's politics is the public-relations office of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. Most intriguing is Rafsanjani's claim of a "secret movement and its efforts to create divisions and weakness in the structure and organization of the Islamic Republic", a reference which could be to the Green Wave, to other agencies and individuals within the establishment, or both.

What can be clearly be said is that Rafsanjani, with the statement, is warning the Iranian public not to accept any "National Unity Plan" as valid unless it has his endorsement. What is still unclear is the content of the plan that the former President supports.

In another statement, Rafsanjani has asked the head of Iran's judiciary, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, to investigate "accusations and slanders against my family" and anounce the results.