Wednesday
Oct142009
UPDATED Iran: The Politics of the Death Sentences
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 at 9:06
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health
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UPDATE 14 October 0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.
For several days, post-election news and rumours have swirled around the death penalties being handed out to detainees. There are now four sentenced to hang: three alleged "monarchists" (Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, Arash Pour-Rahmani, and Hamed Rouhinejad) and one alleged member of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq.
Replying to an Italian journalist on Sunday, I suggested:
Reflecting on this, I may have underestimated the thought behind the regime's move. It has emerged that Ali Zamani and Pour-Rahmani were arrested in April, before the post-election furour, and the lawyer for Rouhinezhad had said that his client had nothing to do with anti-Government protests.
In these cases, the Government strategy is not a direct assault against Green activists; instead, it is a "guilt by association" move to tarnish the opposition. Featuring these four, the regime puts out the message that the demonstrations are led by retrograde supporters of the Pahlavi dynasty and the terrorist MKO, who have pursued the overthrow of the Islamic Republic since 1979 with sabotage, bombings, and assassinations. At the same time, the line that these groups are led by "foreign agents" continues, with the specific Ali Zamani and Pour-Rahmani "confessions" that they were trained by the Americans and met an Israeli intelligence officer.
So challenge has been set for the Green opposition. Defend the four accused and run the risk of being labelled as apologists for foes of the Islamic Republic. Conversely, leave the four to hang and risk the impression that the movement does not really stand up against injustices and penalties of the State.
I still think the Government's move is misguided because it is so clumsy: from the start of the Tehran trials, it has tried to elevate Ali Zamani as a key figure --- he was the first defendant to testify and, of course, he featured in the mid-August video. The evidence against all four men is thin, with no direct link to any anti-Government operation, and that will only be exposed further if the quartet are put to death.
Nothing is simple in this crisis, however, so the cases will be a test of the political acumen of the opposition movement as the regime continues its attempt to intimidate it out of existence.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
UPDATE 14 October 0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.
For several days, post-election news and rumours have swirled around the death penalties being handed out to detainees. There are now four sentenced to hang: three alleged "monarchists" (Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani, Arash Pour-Rahmani, and Hamed Rouhinejad) and one alleged member of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq.
Replying to an Italian journalist on Sunday, I suggested:
A blunt description for a rather blunt move by the regime: as with the Tehran trials from early August and the raids on opposition offices in Sept., this is a flexing of muscle by the President's office, the Revolutionary Guard, and their allies in the judiciary which says, "If you challenge us, we can crush you."
The rather frightening aspect of this move is that it was telegraphed weeks ago. Have a look on our website at the Press TV set-up with the broadcast "confessions" (by the way, I don't anyone in the "Western" media has noticed this) by two of those sentenced to death.
The "safety" for the regime is that they have chosen those to die (the 4th sentence has just been announced) based on two "enemy" groups: 1) monarchists and 2) the terrorist MKO. The clear aspiration is to get widespread Iranian public support for the enforcement of justice. This, in combination with the the continued invocation of the "foreign threat", draws the line against pressure for reforms.
Personally, I think it is an ill-judged move. Even though none of the 4 can bring the immediate sympathy --- because of their membership in suspect organisations --- of a Neda Agha Soltan or a Sohrab Arabi, they will be generic martyrs for the cause, and this could give impetus for the movement. The Internet furour today over the execution of Behnoud Shojai is very strong, and that is for someone who had no ties to post-election protest.
Reflecting on this, I may have underestimated the thought behind the regime's move. It has emerged that Ali Zamani and Pour-Rahmani were arrested in April, before the post-election furour, and the lawyer for Rouhinezhad had said that his client had nothing to do with anti-Government protests.
In these cases, the Government strategy is not a direct assault against Green activists; instead, it is a "guilt by association" move to tarnish the opposition. Featuring these four, the regime puts out the message that the demonstrations are led by retrograde supporters of the Pahlavi dynasty and the terrorist MKO, who have pursued the overthrow of the Islamic Republic since 1979 with sabotage, bombings, and assassinations. At the same time, the line that these groups are led by "foreign agents" continues, with the specific Ali Zamani and Pour-Rahmani "confessions" that they were trained by the Americans and met an Israeli intelligence officer.
So challenge has been set for the Green opposition. Defend the four accused and run the risk of being labelled as apologists for foes of the Islamic Republic. Conversely, leave the four to hang and risk the impression that the movement does not really stand up against injustices and penalties of the State.
I still think the Government's move is misguided because it is so clumsy: from the start of the Tehran trials, it has tried to elevate Ali Zamani as a key figure --- he was the first defendant to testify and, of course, he featured in the mid-August video. The evidence against all four men is thin, with no direct link to any anti-Government operation, and that will only be exposed further if the quartet are put to death.
Nothing is simple in this crisis, however, so the cases will be a test of the political acumen of the opposition movement as the regime continues its attempt to intimidate it out of existence.