Saturday
Oct102009
Afghanistan: Was Pakistan's Intelligence Service Involved in Attack on Indian Embassy?
Saturday, October 10, 2009 at 8:45
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Editor's Note: Josh Mull send this in on Thursday night, 15 hours after the bombing in front of the Indian Embassy in Kabul. We were caught up with other stories, and we also wanted to see if developments supported his theory. An hour ago, this emerged: "Afghan Ambassador to the US, Said T Jawad has claimed Pakistan's spy agency ISI was behind the suicide bomb blast at the Indian Embassy in Kabul on Thursday, which claimed 12 lives and injured over 80 people. Jawad said that there is enough evidence at the ground level to suggest that ISI was behind the attack."
Could Pakistani intelligence be linked to this attack? First we have some clues on the operational capability of the perpetrators: "The assailant in a car managed to enter the neighbourhood despite stringent security arrangements put in place. The 500-metre road stretch has been barricaded for a year in the wake of a deadly suicide assault on the Indian Embassy."
Further details came from an analyst via Twitter:
Photographs of the vehicle used for the attack indicated it's a larger car, too small for an industrial vehicle or truck. This lends credence to the Lexus theory although it's not 100% solid.
This was a well-funded and well-coordinated attack. It would not be impossible for the Taliban to accomplish something like this, but it would take a long, long time and extensive resources to spare. On top of that, some considerable luck would be involved getting past the layers of security. Luck or (abnormally expensive) bribery.
Did the attackers have help? For that we have a bit more information:
Right away we can knock out the claim of 35 killed, seeing as how the Taliban did not have any forensic teams in the area, and certainly the perpetrator wasn't around to do any counting. But the real meat is in the assertion that they managed to kill Indian workers. What does the Islamic Emirate of the Taliban care about a handful of Indians when they just wiped out 35 (their claim) security personnel and Minstry of Interior collaborators with the Crusaders? Why make the point?
It could be that Pakistan's intelligence service ISI was directly involved (acquisition of vehicles, clearances, etc) since they would definitely have the ability to acquire them easier in Kabul than the Taliban would. And they certainly have motive to help: in the last few days the Indian Foreign Minister has expressed the desire to negotiate with the Taliban as well as India's support for a continued US presence in Afghanistan. A report leaked to Indian papers on Wednesday detailed a supposed plot by ISI to infiltrate Taliban fighters into Kashmir and India. (http://www.zeenews.com/news568886.html).
That leaves me stuck with two theories. Either this was an extremely sophisticated and devastating attack by the Taliban against the Ministry of Interior, or it was a terribly ineffective attack by the Taliban and ISI against the Indian embassy and/or Indian personnel. Nothing I've listed is enough to confirm either theory, but we do have hints. If anyone can add to this, please do so.
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Editor's Note: Josh Mull send this in on Thursday night, 15 hours after the bombing in front of the Indian Embassy in Kabul. We were caught up with other stories, and we also wanted to see if developments supported his theory. An hour ago, this emerged: "Afghan Ambassador to the US, Said T Jawad has claimed Pakistan's spy agency ISI was behind the suicide bomb blast at the Indian Embassy in Kabul on Thursday, which claimed 12 lives and injured over 80 people. Jawad said that there is enough evidence at the ground level to suggest that ISI was behind the attack."Could Pakistani intelligence be linked to this attack? First we have some clues on the operational capability of the perpetrators: "The assailant in a car managed to enter the neighbourhood despite stringent security arrangements put in place. The 500-metre road stretch has been barricaded for a year in the wake of a deadly suicide assault on the Indian Embassy."
Further details came from an analyst via Twitter:
Vehicle was apparently a Lexus, to circumvent checkpoints there. Reportedly a VBIED [vehicle-delivered improvised explosive device] against National Directorate of Security (NDS) hospital, next to the Ministry of the Interior. More specifically, the blast was between the MoI, NDS hospital and Indian Embassy. That road is normally blockaded.
Photographs of the vehicle used for the attack indicated it's a larger car, too small for an industrial vehicle or truck. This lends credence to the Lexus theory although it's not 100% solid.
This was a well-funded and well-coordinated attack. It would not be impossible for the Taliban to accomplish something like this, but it would take a long, long time and extensive resources to spare. On top of that, some considerable luck would be involved getting past the layers of security. Luck or (abnormally expensive) bribery.
Did the attackers have help? For that we have a bit more information:
A number of Indian mission employees were among the casualties, a spokesman for the militant movement told Pajhwok Afghan News over the telephone from an undisclosed location.
Zabihullah Mujahid said Khaled, a resident of Paghman district, carried out the attack on the embassy. At least 35 Afghan and international security personnel were killed and several others injured in the assault, he claimed.
Right away we can knock out the claim of 35 killed, seeing as how the Taliban did not have any forensic teams in the area, and certainly the perpetrator wasn't around to do any counting. But the real meat is in the assertion that they managed to kill Indian workers. What does the Islamic Emirate of the Taliban care about a handful of Indians when they just wiped out 35 (their claim) security personnel and Minstry of Interior collaborators with the Crusaders? Why make the point?
It could be that Pakistan's intelligence service ISI was directly involved (acquisition of vehicles, clearances, etc) since they would definitely have the ability to acquire them easier in Kabul than the Taliban would. And they certainly have motive to help: in the last few days the Indian Foreign Minister has expressed the desire to negotiate with the Taliban as well as India's support for a continued US presence in Afghanistan. A report leaked to Indian papers on Wednesday detailed a supposed plot by ISI to infiltrate Taliban fighters into Kashmir and India. (http://www.zeenews.com/news568886.html).
That leaves me stuck with two theories. Either this was an extremely sophisticated and devastating attack by the Taliban against the Ministry of Interior, or it was a terribly ineffective attack by the Taliban and ISI against the Indian embassy and/or Indian personnel. Nothing I've listed is enough to confirm either theory, but we do have hints. If anyone can add to this, please do so.