Pakistan Blast: At Least 95 Killed in Peshawar

Afghanistan: Attack on UN Guest House Kills 12

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A violent morning on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border: soon after learning of the Taliban gun battle in Kabul that left at least 12 dead, including six United Nations staff, news came through of a car bomb in the Khyber Bazaar at Peshawar. At least 95 are dead and 213  wounded.

The bombing occurred hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in the country for talks with Pakistani leaders. Another car bomb in Peshawar on 9 October killed 49 people. Video via CNN:

Iran: Turning Bombings into an Alliance with Pakistan

Iran: Taking Apart the Jundallah-US Narrative
Latest from Iran (26 October): After the Fair

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We noted last week, in the immediate aftermath of the Jundallah bombings that killed more than 40 in southeastern Iran, that the Ahmadinejad Cabinet was moving quickly to use the incident as a catalyst for discussions with Pakistan. Iran Review has translated an analysis from the Etelaat daily newspaper which points to the strategy. Notice that such a strategy, at least in this editorial, pivots on the portrayal of Saudi elements as a common enemy to both Tehran and Islamabad:

We and Pakistan
Abolqasem Qasemzadeh

We, Iranians, and Pakistan are suffering from common maladies which include terrorism and assassination. Pakistan is currently plagued with the Taliban that has frequently endangered public security in that country through assassinations and bomb blasts. The Islamic Republic of Iran too has been a victim to terrorist groups which avail of financial, military and propaganda support of Iran’s adversaries since the victory of 1979 the Islamic Revolution. For years, we and Pakistan have been hit hard by the Wahhabi thought, which seeks to divide Sunnis and Shias. Petrodollars spent by Wahhabi groups in the Islamic Iran have sought to disturb security in border regions through assassinations and acts of terrorism.

At the beginning of the Iraqi imposed war when Saddam was representing world powers that meant to overthrow the Islamic government, the late Saudi King Fahd had been quoted as saying that funding Saddam’s war against Iran and providing him with political, intelligence and military support of Western countries, especially the United States, would help him to win the war. However, Saddam’s ultimate defeat brought shame to all those powers that are currently carrying the mark of shame for supporting Saddam on their brows. In Pakistan, the division between Shias and Sunnis has had no other fruit but massacre of innocent Shiites and Sunnis and destruction of their living environment. Although, the conspirators have constantly taken advantage of ignorance of some societies, today, both Shias and Sunnis in Iran and Pakistan have understood that Wahhabi thought is closely related to Zionist plots and the interests of foreign colonialist powers.

Baluchestan is a common name for border provinces in Iran and Pakistan, both of which have a province under the same name. Both countries are trying to develop their Baluchestan provinces and help Baluch people by implementing development projects. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been constantly trying to make the common border secure and has never let terrorist groups to consider Iranian Baluchestan a safe refuge after committing acts of terror. We and Pakistanis are well aware of the ominous intelligence and military conspiracies of the UK and the United States in that region and know that terrorism in the region will hit both the people of Iran and Pakistan.

Iran Bombings: Former Pakistan Intelligence Chief Blames US

Iran: Taking Apart the Jundallah-US Narrative
Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundallah, and the US

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Colleagues at La Stampa have kindly passed us this interview with Hamid Gul, the former head of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) by Syed Saleem Shahzad:

Islamabad: As Iran's President Ahmadinejad pointed his finger at Pakistani intelligence agencies for last Sunday's terrorist attack in Sistan-Baluchestan --- attributed to the Baluch insurgent group Jundallah --- which killed more than over 40 people, including six senior commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Pakistani defense analysts are blaming the attack on the British and American establishments as part of their design to destabilize the region Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan (PIA).

Leading this response, in an exclusive interview with La Stampa is retired Lieutenant Gul Hamid Gul, "The Iranians have overstepped in their assessment” former Director General Inter-Services Intelligence and prominent Pakistani defense analyst retired Lt. General Hamid Gul said in an exclusive interview with La Stampa:

Their assessment is not well versed with reality. There are several facts which create doubts about Pakistan as the Pakistani government is so much under the influence of Americans. However, there are certain other facts which should be taken under the consideration.

While Americans are present in the region their utmost effort is to destabilize this whole region of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan.

The immense American presence in Pakistan through its security contactors like Blackwater allow them to use Pakistani soil against Iran. Their operations in Baluchestan are along these lines.

On the record Americans have allocated $75 million to destabilize Iranian government. In reality the amount is $400 million. What a shame that a country openly allocates fund to destabilize another country.

Gul is mindful of the historical conflict between the two neighboring countries, Iran with its Shia majority and Pakistan as a Sunni Muslim country.
Nevertheless, the two countries had little dispute on the issue of Baluchestan and did not allow this regional conflict to provoke bitterness. Instead, Gul maintains, the Baluch issue has been manipulated by outsiders looking at wider contexts:

There are several issues which were exploited by the foreign powers for their purpose. There is a sense of deprivation among the Baluch population in Iran and the Sunnis also feel a little detached from the Islamic Revolution. At the same time in its foreign policy, Iran is more close to India than to Pakistan. Those are factors which were exploited by the western powers.

There is 900 km long border between the two countries but it completely unguarded, except of a very small presence of the para-military troops. This allows Americans and, even more than the Americans, the British --- whose officials have been playing up the intrigues in the region and who consider themselves as the experts --- to exploit the situation with the groups like Jundallah.

Sanity demands that both Iran and Pakistan understand the situation. President Ahmedinijad showed haste in making his statement but Ayatollah Khamenei showed statesmanship and did not blame Pakistan for the attack.

Understanding "Mr Obama's Wars": Five Essential Analyses on Afghanistan and Pakistan

Afghanistan: Here is What Will Happen (in 4 Sentences)
Afghanistan: The Real Importance of The“Non-Story” of 13,000 Support Troops

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Amidst the latest uncertainties over Afghanistan's Presidential election and the proposed US military escalation, amidst Pakistan's latest highly-proclaimed offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in Waziristan, the New Americanist makes a timely intervention with five essays considering and critiquing the local, regional, and international significances of the "Af-Pak" issue.

Included are Scott Lucas on the confusions of US strategy, Andrew Johnston on the tensions of "global disorder" for both the US and Canada, Artemy Kalinovsky on the lessons of the Soviet experience, Giles Scott-Smith on the collapse of national sovereignty and the rule of law, and a response to those ideas by Marilyn Young.

Read the collection "Obama and the Af-Pak Question"....

Afghanistan: Was Pakistan's Intelligence Service Involved in Attack on Indian Embassy?

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Editor's Note: Josh Mull send this in on Thursday night, 15 hours after the bombing in front of the Indian Embassy in Kabul. We were caught up with other stories, and we also wanted to see if developments supported his theory. An hour ago, this emerged: "Afghan Ambassador to the US, Said T Jawad has claimed Pakistan's spy agency ISI was behind the suicide bomb blast at the Indian Embassy in Kabul on Thursday, which claimed 12 lives and injured over 80 people. Jawad said that there is enough evidence at the ground level to suggest that ISI was behind the attack."

Could Pakistani intelligence be linked to this attack? First we have some clues on the operational capability of the perpetrators: "The assailant in a car managed to enter the neighbourhood despite stringent security arrangements put in place. The 500-metre road stretch has been barricaded for a year in the wake of a deadly suicide assault on the Indian Embassy."

Further details came from an analyst via Twitter:

Vehicle was apparently a Lexus, to circumvent checkpoints there. Reportedly a VBIED [vehicle-delivered improvised explosive device] against National Directorate of Security (NDS) hospital, next to the Ministry of the Interior. More specifically, the blast was between the MoI, NDS hospital and Indian Embassy. That road is normally blockaded.

Photographs of the vehicle used for the attack indicated it's a larger car, too small for an industrial vehicle or truck. This lends credence to the Lexus theory although it's not 100% solid.

This was a well-funded and well-coordinated attack. It would not be impossible for the Taliban to accomplish something like this, but it would take a long, long time and extensive resources to spare. On top of that, some considerable luck would be involved getting past the layers of security. Luck or (abnormally expensive) bribery.

Did the attackers have help? For that we have a bit more information:

A number of Indian mission employees were among the casualties, a spokesman for the militant movement told Pajhwok Afghan News over the telephone from an undisclosed location.

Zabihullah Mujahid said Khaled, a resident of Paghman district, carried out the attack on the embassy. At least 35 Afghan and international security personnel were killed and several others injured in the assault, he claimed.

Right away we can knock out the claim of 35 killed, seeing as how the Taliban did not have any forensic teams in the area, and certainly the perpetrator wasn't around to do any counting. But the real meat is in the assertion that they managed to kill Indian workers. What does the Islamic Emirate of the Taliban care about a handful of Indians when they just wiped out 35 (their claim) security personnel and Minstry of Interior collaborators with the Crusaders? Why make the point?

It could be that Pakistan's intelligence service ISI was directly involved (acquisition of vehicles, clearances, etc) since they would definitely have the ability to acquire them easier in Kabul than the Taliban would. And they certainly have motive to help: in the last few days the Indian Foreign Minister has expressed the desire to negotiate with the Taliban as well as India's support for a continued US presence in Afghanistan. A report leaked to Indian papers on Wednesday detailed a supposed plot by ISI to infiltrate Taliban fighters into Kashmir and India. (http://www.zeenews.com/news568886.html).

That leaves me stuck with two theories. Either this was an extremely sophisticated and devastating attack by the Taliban against the Ministry of Interior, or it was a terribly ineffective attack by the Taliban and ISI against the Indian embassy and/or Indian personnel. Nothing I've listed is enough to confirm either theory, but we do have hints. If anyone can add to this, please do so.