Israel: Can Netanyahu Really Escape US Pressure?

Israel-Palestine: UN Council Endorses Goldstone Report — What Now?
Video: Protests over former Israel PM Olmert in Chicago

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On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the endorsement by the United Nations Human Rights Council of the Goldstone Report, which claimed both Israel and Hamas had committed war crimes during the Gaza War in December-January. Netanyahu warned the Israeli nation to be prepared for a protracted struggle. Declaring "the delegitimization [of Israel] must be delegitimized", he added, "The UN has returned to the dark days during which it equated Zionism with racism."

Netanyahu's statement is in line with his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's leaked memorandum calling for a “zero-tolerance” policy for anti-Semitic expression around the world. But does the Prime Minister also back Lieberman's strategy of a move from “lone dependence” on Washington to the "neglected" parts of the world?

The was the only Security Council member that voted against the Goldstone resolution in the UNHRC. Yet Ha'aretz correspondent Aluf Benn believes the Obama Administration will use the diplomatic arena to get more Israeli concessions on the expansion of settlements:

Operation Cast Lead in Gaza was perceived in Israel as a shining victory. Rocket fire from Gaza was brought to a halt almost completely. The Israel Defense Forces emerged from its failure during the Second Lebanon War and deployed ground forces with few casualties. "The world" let the operation continue and did not impose a cease-fire. A wonderful war.

Ten months later, it seems the victory was a Pyrrhic one. Israel did not realize that the rules have changed with Barack Obama's election as U.S. president. Prime minister Ehud Olmert timed Cast Lead to take place during the twilight period between the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations, and rightly assumed that the incumbent, George W. Bush, would fully back Israel. However, in contrast to the Lebanon war of 2006, which ended with a cease-fire, the Gaza campaign continues being fought - in the diplomatic arena and in public opinion - and Israel must cope with its consequences in a less-friendly Obama era.

During the first, military round, Israel benefited from the decisive superiority of its firepower. However the Palestinians moved the war's current round to an arena more comfortable for them, and are benefiting from their advantage in UN institutions and in public opinion. The calls to boycott Israel are getting louder. Turkey is shirking off its strategic alliance with Israel and is presenting IDF soldiers as horrible murderers of children. Hamas is gradually winning recognition as a legitimate player, as it continues to amass a stock of rockets without hindrance. Meanwhile Israel's leaders are busy defending the country against the United Nations' Goldstone report (that accuses Israel and Hamas of perpetrating war crimes), and some even have to worry now about being the object of arrest warrants in Europe.

Even if the legal process that Goldstone initiated ends up being halted, and Israel is not put in the dock in The Hague, its hands have been tied. The world, led by Obama, will not let it initiate a Cast Lead II operation. Certainly not when a right-wing government is in power in Jerusalem led by Benjamin Netanyahu, whom the world loves to hate. Netanyahu's clumsy attempt, in his Knesset speech this week, to link the war in Gaza to opposition leader Tzipi Livni did not really succeed. He is in power and the world considers him responsible. The Americans and the Europeans are using the Goldstone report to punish Netanyahu for his refusal to freeze the settlements.

The same thing happened to the Palestinians between the two intifadas. When they hurled stones during the first intifada (1987-1993) and the confrontation was in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip, the world cheered them on and forced Israel to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization and to let its leader Yasser Arafat establish his autonomy in the territories. The Palestinian violence at that time was perceived as appropriate resistance to occupation. During the second intifada, the Palestinians resorted to suicide attacks in Israeli cities. They succeeded in killing many more Israelis, but they lost in the diplomatic arena, especially after the September 11 attacks in the United States, when the rules changed. The world was fed up with terror attacks and it allowed then-prime minister Ariel Sharon to reoccupy the West Bank, lock Arafat in a cage (his headquarters in Ramallah) and eventually unload Gaza without a peace arrangement.

Operation Cast Lead was the most planned operation in the annals of Israel's wars. Its organizers filled out all the forms and checked off on all the procedural changes that had been recommended by the Winograd Committee after its investigation of the shortcomings of the Second Lebanon War. The campaign's goals were reasonable. The scenarios were rehearsed. The reservists were trained. Jurists anticipated the legality of every target and operational plan. The soldiers were properly outfitted with food, water and protective equipment. The local authorities in the Israeli rear functioned as they should have. The media obeyed. In short, the government and the IDF prepared exceptionally well for a Third Lebanon War. They only forgot that the conditions on the Palestinian front are different than in Lebanon.

Not everybody shared the euphoria. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, wanted to halt Cast Lead after two or three days, but was overruled by Olmert who wanted to keep the campaign going, and then going further. Columnists and commentators warned of Gaza becoming a quagmire.

And most interesting: The Winograd Committee anticipated the lurking legal danger to Israel, and in its final report had warned of "far-reaching consequences" resulting from the widening gap between the rules of warfare and the reality of fighting terror launched from civilian surroundings. The committee recommended pulling the legal experts out of the operation rooms, increasing and highlighting investigation of irregular activities, and working with friendly countries to amend the rules of warfare, a recommendation that is easy to make but difficult to implement. The Winograd report did not warn against going into the next war before the rules of warfare are changed. The legal recommendations, drafted with restraint out of fear they would be used for anti-Israeli propaganda, were lost in the sea of piquant items in the report.

Upon returning to power, Netanyahu hoped to leave the Palestinian issue on the side and focus on the Iranian threat and on economic reforms. Now his government will have to cope with the consequences of Cast Lead and do so under less than ideal conditions, heavy international pressure and fear of arrest warrants and charge sheets.

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UPDATE 1330 GMT: EA readers have noted this report, originally from Palestine's Shahab News Agency: "[Palestinian Authority] representatives at a meeting in the US initially rejected Israel's request not to endorse the Goldstone report. But, then, Brigadier Eli Avraham, an Israeli representative, played a videotape showing a meeting between Abbas and Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister during the Gaza war, in which Tzipi Livni, Israel's former foreign minister, was also present. The tape showed Abbas trying to convince Barak to continue the offensive.

"Avraham also played an audiotape of a telephone call between Dov Weissglass, a senior Israeli official, and al-Tayyib Abdul Rahim, secretary-general of the Palestinian president's office....In the conversation, Abdul Rahim noted that circumstances were suitable for entry of the Israeli army into Jabalya and al-Shatea refugee camps, and said that the fall of these two camps would end Hamas's rule in Gaza Strip....Weissglass then told Abdul Rahim that such an army operation would lead to the deaths of thousands of civilians, but, according to Shahab, Abdul Rahim said: 'They have all elected Hamas, so they are the ones who have chosen their fate, not us.'"

We have found no further information about this claim, but Al-Manar, Hezbollah's media outlet, adds: "[Israel's] Ma'ariv newspaper had previously quoted the Israeli occupation Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi as saying that the Palestinian Authority, represented by its President, went to war with Israel in Gaza. Ashkenazi sent a letter to the Israeli Attorney, in which he revealed that the Abbas maintained unprecedented cooperation with the Israeli occupation army during the Gaza war."

All this may be considered in the context of our repeated analyses, during the December-January Gaza War, that the Fatah party of Abbas was backing the Israeli operations against Hamas. See, for example, a 6 January entry, "Gaza: The Israel-Fatah Collaboration".

The pressure on Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, after his support for the deferral of a UN vote on the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, is increasing.

For the first time, an Israeli Arab party (Balad) has challenged the Palestinian leadership, calling for Abbas' resignation. Haaretz reports that even members of Fatah have unofficially asked what needs to be done in to save the party's prestige.

On Monday, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine called on Abbas to "go home." The council of Palestinian organizations in Europe also issued a call for Abbas to step down. Hamas leader in Gaza Ismail Haniyeh called the formation by the PA of a committee to investigate the circumstances around the deferred UN vote "unnecessary": "The circumstances here are clear. Abu Mazen [Abbas] gave the order to his representative. An investigation is only necessary when the circumstances are not clear."

And the issue is not going to disappear. At the request of Libya, the United Nations Security Council will discuss the Goldstone Report on Wednesday. Haaretz reports that Libya will look for possible ways to pass a resolution but in case of a veto, Libya is prepared to call on the UN General Assembly to make a decision. Yet the proviso is added that it would be "ridiculous" for Libya to act in the name of the Muslim world or the Arab League as long as the Palestinian Authority is not interested in acting.