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Entries in United States (14)

Thursday
Oct222009

Enemy Iran: The US-Israeli Military Drill

Really?! Israel & Iran in Direct Talks on Nuclear Weapons
The Latest from Iran (22 October): Unsteady as She Goes

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s-MIDEAST-ISRAEL-MISSILE-largeOn Wednesday, Israel and the US, with 1,000 participants on each side, launched a major air defense drill called Operation Juniper Cobra 10, simulating an Iranian missile attack. According to the scenario, Iran sends its missiles and Americans support the Israeli Defense Force with its missile defense system. Then allies attack Iranian missile batteries with missiles with unconventional warheads.

The drill will last for two weeks.
Wednesday
Oct212009

Turkey's Ambitions and US Plans: Obama Draws the Line on Israel

Israel-Turkey Crisis: Obama Intervenes

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turkey-usaIn January, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked out of a session at the Davos Summit after telling off Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel's invasion of Gaza. That was the most striking picture of Turkey’s so-called “strategic depth strategy”, developed by Ahmet Davutoglu, a personal advisor to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan before he was appointed Foreign Minister in May.

Turkey’s initiative to consolidate its "relative autonomy" was far more than an effort to appear pro-Palestinian in the eyes of Middle Eastern people. It came as the United States was suffering from the complications of military occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan and from the tensions of its political conflict with Iran. The emerging financial crisis was bringing new troubles for Western powers, especially Washington. This, to be blunt, was a Turkish effort, led by Erdogan, to establish its independence of action at a conjunction of international and regional events.

Ironically, Turkey’s interest in strengthening its authority in its region, even though it was propelled by American weakness, was not unwelcome to the US. The Obama Administration was grateful for Ankara’s initiatives in mediating talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv, for its bridging role between the West and Iran, and for the willingness to host Israeli and Palestinian leaders. While Turkey was establishing independence, it was not being "revisionist" to the point where it  threatened Washington's position. The US would have reason to worry if Turkey's approach shifted from a stimulus for the peace process to pressure that would limit and gradually erode Israel's position.

Still, there were always the problems of symbolism.

The walkout in Davos was the first and most sensational image of a putdown for Tel Aviv. Obama was able to calm the situation when he spoke in Ankara in April:
In the Middle East, we share the goal of a lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors. The United States and Turkey can help the Palestinians and Israelis make this journey. Like the United States, Turkey has been a friend and partner in Israel’s quest for security. And like the United States, you seek a future of opportunity and statehood for the Palestinians.

However, Davos was not forgotten by the Netanyahu Government. That is why apparently minor "cultural" incidents, such as the broadcast of a Turkish series portraying Israeli soldiers as evil creatures shooting innocent children, as well as the political snub of cancelled military exercises has elevated tensions dramatically. And it is why Obama has had to make another intervention, this time through a phone call to Turkish President Abdullah Gul.

So why would Turkey, having made its point at Davos, risk a conflict with the US through renewed public animosity vis-a-vis Israel?Foreign Minister Davutoglu offered the answer in an interview with CNN. Just as Gaza War propelled Turkey's strategy for "strategic depth" because of the political advantage it offered in talks with Middle Eastern countries, so the renewal of the Gaza issue --- this time over the Goldstone Report and the continued Israeli obstacles to political and economic development in the area --- presented another opportunity:
We hope that the situation in Gaza will be improved, that the situation will be back to the diplomatic track. And that will create a new atmosphere in Turkish-Israeli relations as well. But in the existing situation, of course, we are criticizing this approach, [the] Israeli approach.

However, Turkey's decision to risk causing the US a bit of discomfort can be explained by other issues: the dialogue with Armenia and the Kurdish problem. Washington, long plagued by the complications of the two situations for Turkey's place in the "West", wanted resolutions. As long as Ankara moved toward settlements --- which it did with the signing of the Armenian protocols last week, then the US would be satisfied with the big victory and could ignore the lesser challenge regarding Israel.

The Israeli reaction to the Turkish series, however, was too much for the US to ignore, especially given Netanyahu's public criticism. The tension between Washington's two democracies in the region was now jeopardising the US vision of the peace process. Israeli decisionmakers were using the “anti-Semitic” atmosphere, particularly after the endorsement of the Goldstone Report by the UN Human Rights Council, to justify a halt to talks, and Turkey's activities were offering support for that pretext.

And it appears that the Obama phone call is already having the desired effect. While there is still tension with rumors that Israeli ministers will not attend Turkish Ambassador's 29 October celebration of Turkish’s foundation in 1923, Tel Aviv's also announced that it will buy water from Turkey amidst reports that Israeli reserves will soon be exhausted. Israeli Army Radio is also reporting that Ankara is sending a new ambassador to Israel to improve the diplomatic atmosphere.

Up to now, Washington has been content with Turkey’s non-revisionist expansion of its regional position, even if this was propped up by symbolic snubs of Israel. Ankara crossed a line, however, and had to be told so by the US President: Turkey's postures stop when they threaten the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Presumably, with that Obama reminder, Turkey can return to the proper strategic path in the Middle East, even if there are periodic objections from Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tuesday
Oct202009

Israel-Turkey Crisis: Obama Intervenes

Israel-Turkey Tensions: Now the Israeli Public Joins In

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israel-turkeyAfter another downward spiral in Israel-Turkey relations, marked by cultural disputes over the Turkish television series depicting cruelty by Israeli troops and by the military rift of the cancelled multi-national exercise, Barack Obama has intervened.

On Saturday, the US President called his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul. The statement released by the White House said: "The two presidents agreed on the importance of continued consultations on these and other key topics on the global security agenda."

The Jerusalem Post goes beyond this vague declaration to claim, from US sources, that the Obama Administration is very concerned about Turkey's actions towards Israel and growing closeness with Syria. The implication is that the telephone conversation between two leaders brought up the tense relationship between Tel Aviv and Ankara.
Monday
Oct192009

Israel: Barak Repairing Position with US Government on Palestine Talks?

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Ehud_Barak_m394109On Sunday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak called on government officials to coordinate with the United States to renew talks with the Palestinian Authority: "We must work with the American administration and consolidate an agreement to open negotiations as soon as possible, even if the conditions aren't perfect and even if we have to make difficult concessions."

Although Barak's suggestion follows the recent, inconclusive trip of President Obama's special envoy George Mitchell to Israel and Palestine, it may be spurred even more by domestic political considerations. Barak is enjoying a favourable wind, as Minister Avigdor Lieberman and possibly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be in trouble with Washington over their resistance to US demands for a full settlement freeze in the West Bank. If the Labour Party's top politician sees this spilling over into discontent amongst Israeli voters, he may be willing to push his position against his coaliation partners.
Monday
Oct192009

Palestine: Will Hamas Return to Cairo Talks Bring Agreement?

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Although Egypt said on Saturday that a reconciliation agreement between Hamas and Fatah had been postponed due to "inappropriate condition", it appears the U.S. reaction has prodded Hamas to return to the negotiation table. On Sunday, in an interview with Palestine Note, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal confirmed that the Islamist group will send a delegation to Cairo.



The parties were supposed to meet in Cairo last Thursday, but  only Fatah showed up to sign the reconciliation agreement without any reservations. If appears that, after Hamas asked for a few days to wait and see, Meshaal has changed his mind; however, Hamas has not given a guarantee that they will accept the dcoument. Hamas' deputy political leader, Abu Marzouk, has reiterated the reservations of Hamas over the US demand for recognition of the principles of the Quartet (US, European Union, UN, Russia). Marzouk also insisted on international recognition if Hamas wins Palestinian elections and on the re-opening of the Gaza-Egypt border crossing at Rafah.

Hamas delegates are going to Cairo and gives the message to Washington: "We are in," but will they arrive there with an "uncompromising" position towards the US as well as Fatah?