Israel-Syria: Croatia Steps In, US Backs Away

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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Croatian President Stipe Mesic followed a visit to Israel with talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday. Topics included the promotion of  economic relations, including Croatian investments in oil and gas domains. However, Israeli-Syrian peace talks are also on the agenda, with Mesic offering to broker Syrian-Israeli discussions, holding them in Croatia's Brijuni Islands .

It is not shocking to see a European Union candidate looking for political leverage through its foreign policy agenda. Nor is it shocking to see no change in Israel's position. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "He held negotiations with the elder Assad, and he saw no reason that he could not hold negotiations with the younger," he continued to insist on direct talks with no third-party involvement and the pre-condition of no pre-conditions.



That in effect is a suspension of the Israel-Syria peace talks under Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert, with the status of the Golan Heights left off any initial agenda. Meanwhile, Syria is still requesting a broker for the discussions, with Turkey  the first name on the list.

Meanwhile, a warning to Damascus has come from Washington. Jeffrey Feltman, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that Syria mustreconsider its ties with "terrorist" Hamas, Hezbollah, and groups fighting in Iraq. He added that the US would not go into a dialogue at the expense of Lebanon since there is still no government in Beirut, although he then softened his demands, "We believe that there is further potential for a positive, constructive U.S.-Syrian relationship."

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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On earlier Wednesday, during a meeting with Croatian President Stipe Mesic, Syrian president Bashar Assad called on European Union countries to facilitate peace talks with Israel through Turkey's mediation:

As far as it concerns us in Syria, we have national support to continue talks with Israel. We call on European countries to also give their contribution, to help Turkey [and] also us to be able to resume from where we have stopped.

With Israeli-Turkish relations have been damaged following the Davos crisis in January, Israeli leaders reiterated that they are not seeking Turkey's mediation role yet are willing to discuss peace with Syria as long as there is no pre-conditions.

Meanwhile, Turkish-Syrian relations are strengthening. Both countries held a military drill in April. Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib Mahmud said on 14 October that his country is to stage a second round of joint military exercises with Turkey. Turkey and Syria also signed political and economic agreements in September. Mutual visa requirements and taxes on trailer trucks operating between the two countries were lifted and "a strategic cooperation assembly" was established.

Finally, it seems that Ankara has got what it desired from Damascus: insistence on Turkey's mediation in the peace process. On 20 October 20, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly stressed that Syria would accept only their country as a mediator in peace talks with Israel.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that Syria is pivotal in the path toward regional peace. Without mentioning Turkey, he said, "Peace with Syria is a major building block of any stable regional agreement. Israel has sought in the past, and will continue to seek ways to promote peace with Syria." However, he also put Tel Aviv's conditions: "Responsible behavior on behalf of the Syrians, as well as Hezbollah, is required in order to prevent the dangers of conflict in the region."

So the Israel-Syria talks won't be occurring soon. Will that matter for Turkey? Possibly not in the short-term: it is more than satisfied with how delays as well as progress strengthen its role as a participant in regional politics.

Turkey's Ambitions and US Plans: Obama Draws the Line on Israel

Israel-Turkey Crisis: Obama Intervenes

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In January, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked out of a session at the Davos Summit after telling off Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel's invasion of Gaza. That was the most striking picture of Turkey’s so-called “strategic depth strategy”, developed by Ahmet Davutoglu, a personal advisor to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan before he was appointed Foreign Minister in May.

Turkey’s initiative to consolidate its "relative autonomy" was far more than an effort to appear pro-Palestinian in the eyes of Middle Eastern people. It came as the United States was suffering from the complications of military occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan and from the tensions of its political conflict with Iran. The emerging financial crisis was bringing new troubles for Western powers, especially Washington. This, to be blunt, was a Turkish effort, led by Erdogan, to establish its independence of action at a conjunction of international and regional events.

Ironically, Turkey’s interest in strengthening its authority in its region, even though it was propelled by American weakness, was not unwelcome to the US. The Obama Administration was grateful for Ankara’s initiatives in mediating talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv, for its bridging role between the West and Iran, and for the willingness to host Israeli and Palestinian leaders. While Turkey was establishing independence, it was not being "revisionist" to the point where it  threatened Washington's position. The US would have reason to worry if Turkey's approach shifted from a stimulus for the peace process to pressure that would limit and gradually erode Israel's position.

Still, there were always the problems of symbolism.

The walkout in Davos was the first and most sensational image of a putdown for Tel Aviv. Obama was able to calm the situation when he spoke in Ankara in April:

In the Middle East, we share the goal of a lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors. The United States and Turkey can help the Palestinians and Israelis make this journey. Like the United States, Turkey has been a friend and partner in Israel’s quest for security. And like the United States, you seek a future of opportunity and statehood for the Palestinians.

However, Davos was not forgotten by the Netanyahu Government. That is why apparently minor "cultural" incidents, such as the broadcast of a Turkish series portraying Israeli soldiers as evil creatures shooting innocent children, as well as the political snub of cancelled military exercises has elevated tensions dramatically. And it is why Obama has had to make another intervention, this time through a phone call to Turkish President Abdullah Gul.

So why would Turkey, having made its point at Davos, risk a conflict with the US through renewed public animosity vis-a-vis Israel?Foreign Minister Davutoglu offered the answer in an interview with CNN. Just as Gaza War propelled Turkey's strategy for "strategic depth" because of the political advantage it offered in talks with Middle Eastern countries, so the renewal of the Gaza issue --- this time over the Goldstone Report and the continued Israeli obstacles to political and economic development in the area --- presented another opportunity:

We hope that the situation in Gaza will be improved, that the situation will be back to the diplomatic track. And that will create a new atmosphere in Turkish-Israeli relations as well. But in the existing situation, of course, we are criticizing this approach, [the] Israeli approach.

However, Turkey's decision to risk causing the US a bit of discomfort can be explained by other issues: the dialogue with Armenia and the Kurdish problem. Washington, long plagued by the complications of the two situations for Turkey's place in the "West", wanted resolutions. As long as Ankara moved toward settlements --- which it did with the signing of the Armenian protocols last week, then the US would be satisfied with the big victory and could ignore the lesser challenge regarding Israel.

The Israeli reaction to the Turkish series, however, was too much for the US to ignore, especially given Netanyahu's public criticism. The tension between Washington's two democracies in the region was now jeopardising the US vision of the peace process. Israeli decisionmakers were using the “anti-Semitic” atmosphere, particularly after the endorsement of the Goldstone Report by the UN Human Rights Council, to justify a halt to talks, and Turkey's activities were offering support for that pretext.

And it appears that the Obama phone call is already having the desired effect. While there is still tension with rumors that Israeli ministers will not attend Turkish Ambassador's 29 October celebration of Turkish’s foundation in 1923, Tel Aviv's also announced that it will buy water from Turkey amidst reports that Israeli reserves will soon be exhausted. Israeli Army Radio is also reporting that Ankara is sending a new ambassador to Israel to improve the diplomatic atmosphere.

Up to now, Washington has been content with Turkey’s non-revisionist expansion of its regional position, even if this was propped up by symbolic snubs of Israel. Ankara crossed a line, however, and had to be told so by the US President: Turkey's postures stop when they threaten the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Presumably, with that Obama reminder, Turkey can return to the proper strategic path in the Middle East, even if there are periodic objections from Benjamin Netanyahu.

Arms and the Middle East: Was Halted German Ship Carrying Ammunition from Iran to Syria?

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Der Spiegel claims that US forces deployed in the Gulf of Suez discovered containers of ammunition carried from Iran to Syria by a Hamburg-based shipping company, Leonhardt & Blumberg. American officials said the arms shipment is a violation of UN Security Resolution 1747, which forbids all weapons shipments into and out of Iran.

The newspaper quoted a German diplomat that the incident was "an embarrassing affair" the consequences of which could bring trouble to Germany's trans-Atlantic relations.

The newspaper reports that the Americans allowed the ship to dock at Malta, where the ammunition was secured.

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UPDATE 0730 GMT: No sooner had we posted this than this report came in from Israel's YNet, "Syria said on Tuesday it would hold military exercises with Turkey, shortly after Turkey canceled maneuvers with Israel. 'We held our first joint land military exercise [with Turkey] last spring. And today we have agreed to do a more comprehensive, a bigger one,' said Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib."

Latest signals over the feud between Turkey and Israel, marked by Ankara's cancellation of Israeli participation in military exercises, are mixed. While the Turkish Foreign Ministry had stated that the decision to abandon the "international dimension" of the drill was not against a third nation [Israel], both Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's speech to CNN and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statement on Monday targeted Israel and the international community: "When phosphorus bombs were rained on innocent children in Gaza, the whole world, all of humanity, watched from their comfortable chairs and their safe havens."

On Tuesday, after Erdogan's harsh" words, Washington finally broke its silence and criticised Ankara's last-minute manoeuvre. US State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said, "As to the question of whether there was a government that was invited to participate and then removed at the last minute, we think it's inappropriate for any nation to be removed from an exercise like this at the last minute." Asked if Israel was removed from the military operation, Crowley confirmed the report.

Meanwhile, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem and a senior Hamas official in Lebanon, Ali Baraka, praised Turkey's decision. Moallem said, "We encourage such cancellations as long as Israel is continuing its aggression and occupation." Baraka stated that Turkey's actions underlined its responsibility toward the Palestinians.