Israel & Lebanon: Tensions Rise

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On Friday, Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations, Noaf Salaam, warned that Israel is planing to attack Lebanon. He condemned Israel's artillery fire on the village of Houla on Tuesday and said that the Israeli response delayed and prevented Lebanese forces from investigating rocket attacks in the area.

The Katyusha fire launched from the Upper Galilee region of Lebanon was the first rocket attack since September and the ninth one since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War. A day later, Lebanese troops found and dismantled four rockets near the border.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman stated on Thursday that Israel had deliberately planned and organized the Katyusha attack "to keep the tension high".

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On earlier Wednesday, during a meeting with Croatian President Stipe Mesic, Syrian president Bashar Assad called on European Union countries to facilitate peace talks with Israel through Turkey's mediation:

As far as it concerns us in Syria, we have national support to continue talks with Israel. We call on European countries to also give their contribution, to help Turkey [and] also us to be able to resume from where we have stopped.

With Israeli-Turkish relations have been damaged following the Davos crisis in January, Israeli leaders reiterated that they are not seeking Turkey's mediation role yet are willing to discuss peace with Syria as long as there is no pre-conditions.

Meanwhile, Turkish-Syrian relations are strengthening. Both countries held a military drill in April. Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib Mahmud said on 14 October that his country is to stage a second round of joint military exercises with Turkey. Turkey and Syria also signed political and economic agreements in September. Mutual visa requirements and taxes on trailer trucks operating between the two countries were lifted and "a strategic cooperation assembly" was established.

Finally, it seems that Ankara has got what it desired from Damascus: insistence on Turkey's mediation in the peace process. On 20 October 20, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly stressed that Syria would accept only their country as a mediator in peace talks with Israel.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that Syria is pivotal in the path toward regional peace. Without mentioning Turkey, he said, "Peace with Syria is a major building block of any stable regional agreement. Israel has sought in the past, and will continue to seek ways to promote peace with Syria." However, he also put Tel Aviv's conditions: "Responsible behavior on behalf of the Syrians, as well as Hezbollah, is required in order to prevent the dangers of conflict in the region."

So the Israel-Syria talks won't be occurring soon. Will that matter for Turkey? Possibly not in the short-term: it is more than satisfied with how delays as well as progress strengthen its role as a participant in regional politics.