Israel-Syria: Croatia Steps In, US Backs Away

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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Croatian President Stipe Mesic followed a visit to Israel with talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday. Topics included the promotion of  economic relations, including Croatian investments in oil and gas domains. However, Israeli-Syrian peace talks are also on the agenda, with Mesic offering to broker Syrian-Israeli discussions, holding them in Croatia's Brijuni Islands .

It is not shocking to see a European Union candidate looking for political leverage through its foreign policy agenda. Nor is it shocking to see no change in Israel's position. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "He held negotiations with the elder Assad, and he saw no reason that he could not hold negotiations with the younger," he continued to insist on direct talks with no third-party involvement and the pre-condition of no pre-conditions.



That in effect is a suspension of the Israel-Syria peace talks under Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert, with the status of the Golan Heights left off any initial agenda. Meanwhile, Syria is still requesting a broker for the discussions, with Turkey  the first name on the list.

Meanwhile, a warning to Damascus has come from Washington. Jeffrey Feltman, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that Syria mustreconsider its ties with "terrorist" Hamas, Hezbollah, and groups fighting in Iraq. He added that the US would not go into a dialogue at the expense of Lebanon since there is still no government in Beirut, although he then softened his demands, "We believe that there is further potential for a positive, constructive U.S.-Syrian relationship."

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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On earlier Wednesday, during a meeting with Croatian President Stipe Mesic, Syrian president Bashar Assad called on European Union countries to facilitate peace talks with Israel through Turkey's mediation:

As far as it concerns us in Syria, we have national support to continue talks with Israel. We call on European countries to also give their contribution, to help Turkey [and] also us to be able to resume from where we have stopped.

With Israeli-Turkish relations have been damaged following the Davos crisis in January, Israeli leaders reiterated that they are not seeking Turkey's mediation role yet are willing to discuss peace with Syria as long as there is no pre-conditions.

Meanwhile, Turkish-Syrian relations are strengthening. Both countries held a military drill in April. Syrian Defense Minister Ali Habib Mahmud said on 14 October that his country is to stage a second round of joint military exercises with Turkey. Turkey and Syria also signed political and economic agreements in September. Mutual visa requirements and taxes on trailer trucks operating between the two countries were lifted and "a strategic cooperation assembly" was established.

Finally, it seems that Ankara has got what it desired from Damascus: insistence on Turkey's mediation in the peace process. On 20 October 20, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly stressed that Syria would accept only their country as a mediator in peace talks with Israel.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that Syria is pivotal in the path toward regional peace. Without mentioning Turkey, he said, "Peace with Syria is a major building block of any stable regional agreement. Israel has sought in the past, and will continue to seek ways to promote peace with Syria." However, he also put Tel Aviv's conditions: "Responsible behavior on behalf of the Syrians, as well as Hezbollah, is required in order to prevent the dangers of conflict in the region."

So the Israel-Syria talks won't be occurring soon. Will that matter for Turkey? Possibly not in the short-term: it is more than satisfied with how delays as well as progress strengthen its role as a participant in regional politics.

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Returning Syrian President Bashar Assad's visit to Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah held talks with Assad in Damascus. Thetwo talked about the Middle East , exchanged national medals, and signed an agreement to regulate taxation. Buthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Assad, described the talks as productive, "strengthening the Arab Islamic position" in the face of Israeli intransigence.

Although Abdullah's visit, his first as King, is not expected to bring a fundamental change in the region, it is a positive sign of the continuation of "engagement" by the Obama Administration with Damascus. At the same time, Syria is not willing to sacrifice its "alliance" with Iran and will portray this meeting as a part of a solid front facing  Israel. As Shaaban said, "Syria's ties with Iran and Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia, would help create an effective Islamic bloc."