Iran Election Guide

Donate to EAWV





Or, click to learn more

Search

Tuesday
Oct132009

Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)

NEW Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

In our updates, we reported from a well-connected EA source that President Ahmadinejad faced spirited protest when he visited Shiraz yesterday. Here's video confirmation, complete with the chant, "Ahmadi, go to Hell!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3n3ltfUVtYU[/youtube]
Tuesday
Oct132009

Latest Iran Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)

Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Seven videos from the demonstrations

HomyLafayette's description: "They've arrested someone!" shouts one student. "Basiji get lost!" the crowd shouts, before singing a hymn of the student movement "Yareh Dabestani Man". Some Basijis can be seen filming the protesters.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5k1jqM1bQ8[/youtube]

Basiji rough up student (from a set by HomyLafayette, who also has an excellent narrative of events)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7uySlfTZSc[/youtube]

"Free thought is not possible with beards and whiskers!"/"Ahmadi, you clown, the 63% [a reference to Ahmadinejad's alleged percent vote in the election] is here!"/"Long live Mousavi, may Karroubi stand long!"/"Oil money has been lost, it's been used to pay for Basijis!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUDwXhqukBc[/youtube]

Four of 12 videos of today's protest --- the full set is available via Mehdi Saharkhiz

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_EdcGbfFFM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYzIaAotnio[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRzHuHrtP7M[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYqY4kU_5rE[/youtube]
Tuesday
Oct132009

UPDATED Iran: The Washington-Tehran Deal on Enriched Uranium?

The Latest from Iran (11 October): “Media Operations”

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

IRAN NUKESUPDATE 13 October 1900 GMT: For the love of Ed Murrow, is there a journalist out there who is not being led by the nose on the US-Russia Sanctions on Iran story?

Both The New York Times and the Los Angeles Times prefer to take the bait of Oh No, Russia Will Not Support US Sanctions, quoting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, “Threats, sanctions, and threats of pressure in the current situation, we are convinced, would be counterproductive.” This apparently "throw[s] cold water on the Obama administration’s hopes that Russia had bxeen persuaded to cooperate with its effort to intensify the global pressure on Tehran".

Reuters prefers to be the mouthpiece for Oh Yes, Russia Will Support US Sanctions, relying on a US State Department spokesman who assures everyone that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is "quite clear that, while pleased with the Geneva results, he expects Iran to implement them and if they don't there should be sanctions."

None of these journalists takes the time to ponder that they are being taken for a public ride. The proposal on the table for Secretary of State Clinton and her hosts is not sanctions but the Russian enrichment of 80 percent of Iran's uranium. All else at this point is a diversion.


UPDATE 1510 GMT: From Deception, Enlightenment. Want to see the clues to the possible US-Iran-Russia deal on enrichment? All you have to do is find the right angle on the mainstream media's simple reporting.

For example, Paul Harris in The Observer of London recites the finger-wagging party line of "American officials", "Clinton woos Russia over Iran sanctions", when she is in Moscow on Tuesday. Actually, in light of this story, expect the Secretary of State to be discussing --- privately, not publicly --- the details of third-party enrichment.

The Los Angeles Times has an even bigger tip-off. Modifying earlier media reports of a defiant position by the spokesman for Iran's nuclear energy organisation, it quotes from a later interview with Ali Shirzadian:
We’re looking at three options. We hand over 3.5% enriched and receive in return 20% enriched, or we buy 20% enriched on the market, or we will be allowed to enrich ourselves. I stress that no matter what option we take it will be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency....Any of these options will work for both sides.


There have been been few "scoops" for the mainstream media during the post-election crisis in Iran, but Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post can claim one this morning:

"Iran four months ago discreetly contacted the United Nations-affiliated agency for nuclear energy to outline a worrisome situation: A research reactor in Tehran that produces medical isotopes that detect and treat the diseases of about 10,000 patients a week will run out of fuel by the end of 2010. Iran also had a request: Can you help us find a country that will sell us new fuel?"

The outcome? "An unusual deal, brokered largely by the United States, that aims to buy time for a diplomatic solution to the impasse over Iran's nuclear ambitions. If it works, Iran will end up with fuel necessary to treat desperately ill patients -- and greatly reduce its stock of low-enriched uranium."

This is the deal at the heart of the headline discussion of "third-party enrichment", probably by Russia, of Iran's uranium. Kessler explains that the source for the medical programme, 50 pounds enriched to almost 20 percent by Argentina, is running low. The Iranians have been asking for use of their stock of 3300 pounds, currently at about 3-4 percent enrichment, but that, of course, is tangled up in the debate over whether Tehran is looking for a pretext to produce weapons-grade uranium.

Under the Obama Administration's plan, "Iran...would have to give up about 80 percent of its stockpile to get back the same amount of uranium supplied by Argentina in 1993". Kessler, obviously using Administration sources, says that "White House official Gary Samore broached the idea to Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia's atomic energy agency, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. A senior U.S. official said, 'Both of them immediately said this is a great idea.'"

France is also involved, shaping the enriched fuel into uranium-aluminum
metal plates. And the International Atomic Energy Agency has helped broker the plan in talks with Tehran, including Mohammad El-Baradei's recent visit.

In the slow-moving world of international diplomacy, these are dramatic developments. However, there are two important points that Kessler --- in part because he feels obligated to sprinkle his article with superficial nay-saying ("critics question why the United States would be assisting a nuclear pariah"; "it will be too easy for Iran to extract the more highly enriched uranium for weapons") --- does not address.

First, this is the clearest possible sign that Washington --- come the hell or high water of its domestic opponents --- will be pursuing engagement. This is high-profile public relations: "senior Administration officials" have gone out of their way to place this story with the Post, knowing that it will get maximum attention over Sunday breakfasts through the capital. Every one of the boilerplate criticisms in Kessler's article is knocked back with an assurance such as "Iran has no known technical expertise at extracting uranium from a metal alloy".

Talk of deadlines and sanctions are now just window-dressing to distract the sceptics. While the Iranian regime will undoubtedly draw out negotiations, ensuring that the deal is not seen as a sign of its weakness, it sees value in the proposal: as Kessler notes, "[US officials] were relieved when, on the eve of the Geneva talks, he was quoted as saying that Iran would ship its low-enriched uranium to a third country for processing."

But here's the second point that does not even dawn on Kessler. "Four months ago", when Iran contacted the IAEA, was also "four months ago" when Iran was holding its Presidential election. Kessler does not identify when the US was informed of Tehran's approach, but one can assume it was soon afterwards.

So the Obama Administration took the decision that any position on Iran's internal turmoil was secondary to striking a nuclear deal. If the cost of that bargain was a granting of "legitimacy" to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it was a price worth paying.
Tuesday
Oct132009

Afghanistan: The Real Importance of Today's "Non-Story" of 13,000 Support Troops

Afghanistan: Did Clinton Just Say to the BBC, “Talk to the Taliban”?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

US TROOPS AFGHANIt's a pity that Ann Scott Tyson and The Washington Post have wasted so much effort in bigging-up this morning's declaration, "Support Troops Swelling U.S. Force in Afghanistan", as Page 1 headline drama.

Why? Because the news is more than six months old.

Here's the supposed scoop: "President Obama announced in March that he would be sending 21,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. But in an unannounced move, the White House has also authorized -- and the Pentagon is deploying -- at least 13,000 troops beyond that number, according to defense officials."

Unannounced move? Enduring America noted in March, and on repeated occasions afterward, that Obama had given the military a total of 30,000+ troops when the support forces were added to combat units. Indeed, we pointed to Obama's initial teaser for the press --- 4000 "trainers" --- as a marker for this public-relations/military strategy. The only person in Washington who has apparently missed this, as the months of the US escalation have unfolded only to reach another critical stage in the autumn, is Anne Scott Tyson.

The significance of Tyson's article is not in a sudden, naive recognition of the overall increase in the US commitment. Instead it is in this message tucked away in the fourth paragraph:
A significant number of support troops, in addition to combat forces, would be needed to meet commanders' demands. It also underscores the growing strain on U.S. ground troops, raising practical questions about how the Army and Marine Corps would meet a request from Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan.

In other words, White House officials are using Tyson, whether she is a willing accomplice or an unwitting channel, to put out another dampener on the McChrystal recommendation for 40,000 more soldiers.

I have thought for weeks that a lot of the White House "dispute" with its top commander in Afghanistan is for show until a compromise is reached. That may still be the case: as in March, Obama will give the military less than 40,000 combat troops but a total of 40,000 when combat and support troops are added together.

However, the longer this drags on, the greater the possibility that this is not compromise but real conflict over the way forward for a US strategy which seems lost over its next steps beyond the mantras of "Al Qa'eda" and "security".
Tuesday
Oct132009

US to Egypt: Stop the Fatah-Hamas Reconciliation Talks

Middle East: Israel’s Troubles with a Turkish Ally
The Results of the Mitchell Israel-Palestine Trip: Nothing

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Washington-DCWashington has told Cairo that it does not support a reconciliation agreement which does not include the principles of the Quartet (US, UN, European Union, Russia): recognition of the State of Israel, acknowledgement of earlier agreements, and renunciation of terrorism. The Obama Administration believe the current agreement, which is supposed to be signed by both parties by October 15 , could undermine negotiations with Israel.

The Fatah Party, which leads the Palestinian Authority's West Bank Government, has already agreed with the draft of the reconciliation agreement, while Hamas has not made its position clear because of the recent PA support for deferral of the United Nations Human Rights Council vote on the Goldstone Report on Gaza.

With the pressure on Egypt to pull back from the reconcilation agreement, Fatah can concentrate on repairing its position. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that on 16 October 16 the PA will ask the Human Rights Council to forward the Goldstone report either to the UN Security Council or to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Which only leaves a question: if the Obama Administration really that a peace settlement between the Palestinian Authority and Israel can come true without an agreement between Fatah and Hamas....How?