Saturday
Sep122009
Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?
Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 8:17
The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics
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Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Last night's report, first appearing on the Iranian website Rah-e-Sabz and then extended in The New York Times, carried a double blow. First, the Supreme Leader had issued an order (reportedly two weeks ago) for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Second, Hashemi Rafsanjani, after a conversation with Ayatollah Khamenei, had told aides that he was retreating from front-line politics because of the current dominance of the military
The news was so dramatic that it still has not been fully taken in. The reaction of many, inevitably, was whether that this was the defining setback for the Green movement and Rafsanjani. Will Karroubi be cowed into submission and seclusion? Is Rafsanjani saying that he will not appear at next Friday's Qods Day ceremonies? Is there no prospect of a mass response around those ceremonies?
To be honest, while those questions are vital, they're the easy ones to handle this morning. For we simply don't know. Even before the breaking news, we were watching for the reactions of the Green opposition and Rafsanjani to the Supreme Leader's address, and we're still on that watch.
If the report is true, the more immediate profitable analysis is on the relations within the Establishment. Take the assertion that the order for Karroubi's arrest was issued two weeks ago. That would put it at the end of August, before Khamenei's statement denying that the post-election conflict was a foreign-led "velvet revolution) which distanced him from the position of the Revolutionary Guard and the President and his limited but still clear criticisms of the post-election detentions.
So, if Supreme Leader issued the order for Karroubi's arrest as part of his political approach, then the questions emerge over his relationship with Ahmadinejad and the IRGC: 1) was Khamenei attempting to take the lead by showing his tough side? 2) was he now just following the hard line set by others? 3) was he doing a balancing act, setting out threats while also displaying the possibility of limited concessions as Ahmadinejad's Cabinet was being presented to Parliament?
All of this in turn presumes that the order was carefully considered before it was issued. There is always the possibility that Khamenei, who like his opponents has been under pressure and strain throughout this crisis, had a "Thomas a Becket" moment, declaring, "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" The best observers yesterday (those who listened or saw Khamenei's speech, rather than those who lifted their accounts from the Reuters summary) indicated that the Supreme Leaders seemed nervous and even a bit fraught, crying at one point in the first part of the sermon.
For now, therefore, considering the report in connection with the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, two thoughts:
1. It appears, in line with our recent analyses, that Khamenei is scrambling for position, not against the opposition but against his President and his military. Add to that the significant factor that the Supreme Leader is taking fire from senior clerics in Qom, which Josh Shahryar noted yesterday. So, while trying to secure his "leadership", he also has to be aware that if he is too ham- and heavy-fisted with the opposition, his religious position will be under further tension.
2. If one has to pick out a symbolic figure for the opposition, it is now Mehdi Karroubi. Rafsanjani's reported withdrawal from an immediate public battle (a development I take more seriously than the claim of the arrest order, as it came --- as fact or public-relations spin --- from a Rafsanjani aide) puts him to the side for the moment. Mir Hossein Mousavi is trying to mark with statements but appears to be able to do little beyond that.
Karroubi is the one opposition leader with a significant communications network --- significant enough that the Government tried to knock it out with their raids this week, significant enough to survive that attack. He is the leader carrying the documents about the most symbolic and "real" political issue within the Establishment, the alleged abuse of detainees. He is still working within the system, with his negotiations with the judiciary, as well as appealing to those outside it.
So the arrest order, if it was issued, was a sword of Damocles suspended over Karroubi's head. Misbehave and we take you out. And even if that order doesn't exist, then the Supreme Leader's closing statement in yesterday's speech does: don't make a fuss at Qods Day.
Yes, yesterday was dramatic. Yes, it was tense. But, no, it is not a resolution.
On to next Friday.
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Last night's report, first appearing on the Iranian website Rah-e-Sabz and then extended in The New York Times, carried a double blow. First, the Supreme Leader had issued an order (reportedly two weeks ago) for the arrest of Mehdi Karroubi. Second, Hashemi Rafsanjani, after a conversation with Ayatollah Khamenei, had told aides that he was retreating from front-line politics because of the current dominance of the militaryThe news was so dramatic that it still has not been fully taken in. The reaction of many, inevitably, was whether that this was the defining setback for the Green movement and Rafsanjani. Will Karroubi be cowed into submission and seclusion? Is Rafsanjani saying that he will not appear at next Friday's Qods Day ceremonies? Is there no prospect of a mass response around those ceremonies?
To be honest, while those questions are vital, they're the easy ones to handle this morning. For we simply don't know. Even before the breaking news, we were watching for the reactions of the Green opposition and Rafsanjani to the Supreme Leader's address, and we're still on that watch.
If the report is true, the more immediate profitable analysis is on the relations within the Establishment. Take the assertion that the order for Karroubi's arrest was issued two weeks ago. That would put it at the end of August, before Khamenei's statement denying that the post-election conflict was a foreign-led "velvet revolution) which distanced him from the position of the Revolutionary Guard and the President and his limited but still clear criticisms of the post-election detentions.
So, if Supreme Leader issued the order for Karroubi's arrest as part of his political approach, then the questions emerge over his relationship with Ahmadinejad and the IRGC: 1) was Khamenei attempting to take the lead by showing his tough side? 2) was he now just following the hard line set by others? 3) was he doing a balancing act, setting out threats while also displaying the possibility of limited concessions as Ahmadinejad's Cabinet was being presented to Parliament?
All of this in turn presumes that the order was carefully considered before it was issued. There is always the possibility that Khamenei, who like his opponents has been under pressure and strain throughout this crisis, had a "Thomas a Becket" moment, declaring, "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?" The best observers yesterday (those who listened or saw Khamenei's speech, rather than those who lifted their accounts from the Reuters summary) indicated that the Supreme Leaders seemed nervous and even a bit fraught, crying at one point in the first part of the sermon.
For now, therefore, considering the report in connection with the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayers address, two thoughts:
1. It appears, in line with our recent analyses, that Khamenei is scrambling for position, not against the opposition but against his President and his military. Add to that the significant factor that the Supreme Leader is taking fire from senior clerics in Qom, which Josh Shahryar noted yesterday. So, while trying to secure his "leadership", he also has to be aware that if he is too ham- and heavy-fisted with the opposition, his religious position will be under further tension.
2. If one has to pick out a symbolic figure for the opposition, it is now Mehdi Karroubi. Rafsanjani's reported withdrawal from an immediate public battle (a development I take more seriously than the claim of the arrest order, as it came --- as fact or public-relations spin --- from a Rafsanjani aide) puts him to the side for the moment. Mir Hossein Mousavi is trying to mark with statements but appears to be able to do little beyond that.
Karroubi is the one opposition leader with a significant communications network --- significant enough that the Government tried to knock it out with their raids this week, significant enough to survive that attack. He is the leader carrying the documents about the most symbolic and "real" political issue within the Establishment, the alleged abuse of detainees. He is still working within the system, with his negotiations with the judiciary, as well as appealing to those outside it.
So the arrest order, if it was issued, was a sword of Damocles suspended over Karroubi's head. Misbehave and we take you out. And even if that order doesn't exist, then the Supreme Leader's closing statement in yesterday's speech does: don't make a fuss at Qods Day.
Yes, yesterday was dramatic. Yes, it was tense. But, no, it is not a resolution.
On to next Friday.
Reader Comments (23)
One angle to look at this is that, on Sept 18 Hashemi and Co have made all arrangments to return the green to the scene with a BIG crowed, They are expecting lots of incidents again so by retreating now, he is washing his hands in innocence, while in the background plans have been made.
I guess this is a very positive way of looking at things... but hey it gives hope... so let me be hopefull or should i better say HopeFOOL...
After watching PressTv's coverage (copy and paste in Windows media player: mms://217.218.67.244/presstv/20090912/Leader%20Friday.wmv) - and after reading real time translations by NiteOwl, Pedestrian and MikVerbrugge - I don't think I saw a man who "has been under pressure and strain", "seemed nervous or even a bit fraught". Of course PressTV could have shown only his stronger moments... but they did sound really strong.
So yes, Afshin, maybe we're hopefool...
On the other hand: from Mousavi's Facebook I understand it didn't impress some people who went back to their rooftops at night. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk3NowhrFWU
So Afshin, I think I'll stick to hopeful :-)
@ WitteKr
How about Hopefooly hopefull.....
@afshin, It could be that Rafsanjani and SL has made a deal behind the scenes, SL guarantees no more attacks from the Guards against hashemi, his family and their financial assets, and in return hashemi pulls back from politics, but I doubt that Rafsanjani would accept such an agreement, cause he knows that the Guards will come after him eventually.
I just pray and hope that on the 18th of september a sea of Iranian will storm the streets of every major city in Iran.
Arash
I also wondered about an agreement between Hashemi & SL, but in terms of how to deal with AN & Pasdaran. Hashemi & Karoubi keep the focus off the SL. He needs them to triangulate with the Pasdaran & the people. If they are defanged, SL is left dangling before the Pasdaran like a piñata. He could work with Hashemi to keep this dynamic going. Where else can he turn?
"crying at one point in the first part of the sermon." It was during the recounting of the death of Imam Ali. It is very common to cry during this time and in fact the crowd was crying as well. This in no way indicate any weakness on the SL's part.
The whole sermon was strong, forceful and focused on one thing: The SL actions in dealing with his opponents are completely in line with the example of Imam Khomeini (and also of course with Imam Ali) . Hard to argue with that point. Despite revisionist propaganda Imam Khomeini was, and remained throughout his long life, a hardliner. Look at the events of 1988 and how he dealt with Montazeri.
Below is the Ayatollah Khomeini's explanation of Quds day. Iran is the only country to officialy sponsor Quds day (ALTHOUGH EVERY OTHER COUNTRY in the region should have one and the fact that they don't shows THEIR QUISLING NATURE) Using this day to try to overthrow or weaken the SL will not will not end well for anyone.
"The nations’ duty on Quds Day
It is the duty of the nations, with the arrival of Quds Day and the anniversary of the martyrdom of that great man in the history of mankind (Imam `Ali [pbuh]), in their gatherings and marches to earnestly demand that their governments rise up against America and Israel using their military might and their oil weapon. And if they (the governments) pay no heed to this demand and instead support the criminal Israel which threatens the whole region, even the noble cities, and the depth of whose aspirations are now apparent, they must force them into action through pressure, strikes and threats. In a situation when Islam and its holy sites are under threat of aggression, no Muslim can remain indifferent. what the governments of the region are doing at this time, when Israel is encroaching extensively on Muslim lands and is killing innocent, defenceless Muslims, is nothing other than uttering empty, conciliatory words. And more disastrous than this is that they turn to America, the criminal kingpin, for protection against Israel, in effect like turning to a dragon out of fear of a snake, and even though they have the means with which to fight them, they are not prepared even to utter a hostile word against them or threaten them. In such a situation, everyone should prepare himself for obliteration and throughout his life consent to any form of humiliation."
Imam’s message dated 16 July 1982 (25 Tir 1361 AHS). Sahifa-yi Nur, Vol. 16, pp. 226-227.
In reference to the above quote, Greens who march on Quds Day will be protesting the killing of innocent, defenceless Muslims
Samuel's entitled to his views. And that's all I'll say about that.
On Qods Day, there is conflicting info. Some reports, including one linked by Fershteh Ghazi, indicate Hashemi WILL NOT/is not being allowed to perform Friday Prayers on the 18th. Raf's office, however, denies this.
Stay tuned!
There is absolutely no comparison in scale between the 72 individuals killed (tragic as though that may be) and the expulsion, mass killings and ethnic cleansing of millions of Palestinians by the Zionist Israeli state.
Even Karroubi said in his interview with the LA Times the other day that the current situation in Iran was a dispute "within a family". The dispute with the colonial, mass murdering, warmonger, expansionist, Apartheid state of Zionists is certainly not a dispute "within a family".
The eventual goal of Quds day is the dismantlememt of the Zionist state and its replacement with a bi-national state. Thanks to Hezbollah and Hamas and Iran that goal is closer now than it has even been.
Here is the Karroubi quote:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-karroubi9-2009sep09,0,6445751.story
"He ruled out as unwise more extreme actions such as general strikes.
"Common people would suffer at the end of the day," he said. "Our disputes are not so deep. It is a dispute between members of a family. So we do not need that scale of protest."
@ Samuel
This is not about the state of Israel and their crimes against humanity, this is about Iran and the crimes against Humanity that have taken place there. Lets leave Israel out of it, for now it is not important that Quds day is symbol for the Palestinian sufferings. Lets focus on our sufferings.
Afshin,
He is a neo-conservative. Ignore him.
@Thomas
Agreed. Don't feed the troll!
Though I'd call him a hardliner.
I first of all would like to thank EA for the splendid coverage of the post-election events in Iran. I'm a university student of Persian Language and Culture but I've learned more on Iranian politics from EA then all those years in class. Please keep up the good work!
The reason that I'm leaving a reply now is because of Mr. Samuel's comments. I deeply deplore those comments that are for some reason getting current these days; in this vision Middle Eastern regimes are somehow the flagbearer of justice because they are supposedly fighting for the Palestinian cause, which erases their own crimes. This is absolutely false.
The truth is that the regime in Tehran doesn't care at all about the humanitarian catastrophy in Palestine. It just knows that it can mobilise the religious sections of the Iranian population to rally behind this cause. In a country were popular support for the regime is getting smaller by the minute, this is a useful asset.
And, much more important, it first can create a lot of goodwill in a region historically hostile towards it (Arab-Iranian relations) and secondly it's rethoric generates a lot of support in a wider Muslim world notwithstanding the historical divisions (Sunni-Shia). In any way behaving like this is a logical step for some segments of the Islamic Republic and it's wider ambitions.
The consequence is that their worst nightmare would be an Israeli-Arab peace, because it would erase a large chunk of it's raison d'etre. They are in fact happy when the conflict lingers on the way it is right now.
I recognize the suffering of the Palestinian people, but it has absolutely no relationship with the suffering of the Iranian people! You can't trade one for the other. The consequence of this stance would be indifference for the Palestinian cause, a result the regime of Iran is now witnissing in Iranian society at large at the moment.
Otherwise thanks again EA for this wonderful source of knowledge about Iranian politics!
Well thanks for the name calling.
This is tied into Israel because of the Nature of this specific day which folks want to hijack to oppose SL and AN. There is of course the bigger issue which is that the reason that the Palestinians are closer than ever to victory today is partly because of the Ayatollah Khomeini and the SL.
In the whole history of Israel only one armed group has defeated it and that is Hezbollah which kicked the Zionists out of South Lebanon. Hezbollah in turn owes much of its success to Khomeini and the SL. The fate of dismantling Israel cannot be separated from the Govt of Iran which has done so much to bring it about. The reformists are not as inclined to pursue this.
Finally for once I agree with Karroubi; the issue in Iran is a dispute withing a family. In any other country in the region he would have been in prison for a long time or sent before a firing squad.
"The consequence is that their worst nightmare would be an Israeli-Arab peace, because it would erase a large chunk of it’s raison d’etre. They are in fact happy when the conflict lingers on the way it is right now."
The goal is not an Israeli-Arab "peace", the goal is the dismatlement of the Israeli state and its replacement with a bi-national state just as the goal of the ANC was not primarily "peace" between blacks and whites but the replacement of the Apartheid state with a binational state.
"The truth is that the regime in Tehran doesn’t care at all about the humanitarian catastrophy in Palestine. It just knows that it can mobilise the religious sections of the Iranian population to rally behind this cause."
Since when? Khomeini included? Wrong, false, incorrect. The govt in fact risks and has always risked disastisfaction fromt the population because scarce economic resources are devoted to what some consider a foreign conflict. Khomeini had long argued against the Zionist state, long before he took power.
"Middle Eastern regimes are somehow the flagbearer of justice because they are supposedly fighting for the Palestinian cause, which erases their own crimes."
The other states, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Etc., are all talk no action and they do use the Palestinians as a distraction while they do nothing. Iran on the other hand does and has done a lot to bring about Israel's defeat.
Samuel,
Not name calling just an observation which you revealed yesterday.
In a previous conversation, I called Amadhinejad: Mahmoud div. MD picked up on the reference. The Shahnameh says you should see your enemy as a Div, though work to bring him back into the fold of Humanity. If he won't return then deal with it as necessary, but don't deny the other's humanity. It will allow you to stay calm, cool and focused. And may change your enemy to your advesary to your friend.
The Iranian fight for Independence will greatly affect the rest of us for good or bad. I wish them well.
Can someone tell me why Karroubi is not in jail yet? What's the hold up? Can the regime not find his house? We are supposed to believe that the Supreme Leader issued the order two weeks ago. During those two weeks Karroubi issued several statements, keeping the prisoner abuse story very much alive. Also, during those weeks, several reformists have been successfully arrested and Karroubi's office has been raided. But Karroubi remains free.
Who knows what will happen tomorrow or even later today, but I think that the story of Karroubi's arrest order is demonstrably fake, simply because Karroubi has not been arrested.
Bendix
It could be a rumor. It could be, rumor or not, that the purpose is not to arrest Karroubi, but to intimidate him or those working with him.
(edit) see the 1910 GMT entry in today's http://enduringamerica.com/2009/09/12/the-latest-from-iran-12-september-reassessing/" rel="nofollow">The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing. If they are trying to intimidate him, it's not working...
If Hashemi is the Teflon Ayatollah, Karroubi is the Eveready Energizer Bunny Ayatollah
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If Karroubi is arrested people will NEVER forget this. This would be a short sighted tactic for the government. People have lost their lives. Society has changed and they want more democracy. The deaths will not be forgotten and the show trials are a source of torture for those watching. We now know that this government is corrupt and SL is not "Supreme" but a human being, not a perfect one for that. The illusion is braoken They can arrest as many people as they want, but people will never forget.