The Latest from Iran (12 September): Reassessing

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Rooftop Chants Continue (11 September)
NEW Iran: Is the Supreme Leader Killing Off the Opposition?
NEW Transcript/Snap Analysis: Washington’s Welcome to Iran
Iran: The Complete Translation of the Supreme Leader’s Friday Prayer Address
Iran: Josh Shahryar’s Snap Analysis of the Supreme Leader’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics


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2010 GMT: The Facebook page of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi features a new poster (left) with this message: "Following a new wave of censorship, our main focus will be on Green Qods Day. This will be a day to protest the assault against us, show our presence, and support Green leaders like Karoubi who have always supported us."

1955 GMT: An EA correspondent offers a reminder of the significance of whether or not Hashemi Rafsanjani shows up to lead this Friday's prayers on Qods Day: "Rafsanjani has led the Friday prayers on Qods Day for the past few years. It would be yet another change in tradition --- as well as yet another ominous proof of the "change" that has befallen on Iran after the elections --- should he miss this year's sermon. I guess the Rafsanjani dance will kick off tomorrow or Monday, with the usual whirlwind of rumors that will be quashed, one way or the other, on Tuesday or Wednesday."

1920 GMT: The Imam Khomeini Institute, which has been under recent pressure from the Government including the cancellation of Ramadan ceremonies, has tried to fight back. It has filed a legal complaint against the pro-Government newspaper Kayhan for slander and defamation.

1910 GMT: Karroubi Stays Visible. One of the main points of our morning analysis was that Mehdi Karroubi now occupied a vital position at a key period for the opposition movement. The cleric has not hesitated, despite the hard line of the Government. In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Stampa, he said, "If the Imam Khomeini was alive, he would have annulled these elections (and) condemned the violence and murders. What happened immediately after the elections, the arrests of thousands of members of the opposition, the murder of dozens of people and the acts of violence ... constituted a veritable coup d'etat."

1510 GMT: Kayhan Kalhor, the composer and violinist, was arrested at Imam Khomenei Airport on Friday and was released from detention on Saturday.

1410 GMT: Repeating --- Rafsanjani's Stand? Raja News claims confirmation that the former President will not be leading prayers this Friday on Qods Day. However, Ayande News reports that Rafsanjani's office has denied the withdrawal.

1405 GMT: The CNN website still hasn't noticed that the Supreme Leader led Friday prayers.

1400 GMT: Rafsanjani Makes His Stand? If Hashemi Rafsanjani does not lead prayers this Friday on Qods Day, his opportunity for a political move may come four days later. The Assembly of Experts will convene for its regular meeting on 22 September.

1330 GMT: The Green movement's Mowj-e-Sabz is claiming that the National Security Council has banned newspapers from reporting on "Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Presidential Election".

1325 GMT: Reports that reformist activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour has been released from detention on $200,000 bail.

1305 GMT: The Day's First Major Development? The three-member judiciary panel investigating Mehdi Karroubi's claims of abuse of detainees has declared that they are false. In a letter to the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, they have also raised the possibility that Karroubi could be subject to charges of libel and slander.

1245 GMT: A bit of news on the slowest day since 12 June (what more than one outlet has called "the lull before the storm"). Hayedeh Tabesh, a member of the 1 million signatures campaign, was summoned to the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning. More than 50 members of the campaign have been arrested and/or put on trial.

0900 GMT: Playing catch-up during a slow period, we've noted an interesting turn of events (given the Western media's representation of the latest Iran proposals on its nuclear programme), "Washington’s Welcome to Iran".

0830 GMT: Although we're on limited service today (celebrations with relatives from the US), the lack of updates is more to do with no news coming out of Iran after yesterday's dramatic developments. We have posted an analysis of the Supreme Leader's steps, including his Friday prayers address and the reported arrest order for Mehdi Karroubi, as well as the opposition's possible response, in a separate entry.

Comments

[Amy]

Disheartening but not surprising news about the rape charges and about Hayedeh Tabesh

[Observer]

"Rafsanjani’s Stand? Raja News claims confirmation that the former President will not be leading prayers this Friday on Qods Day. However, Ayande News reports that Rafsanjani’s office has denied the withdrawal."

and then

"Rafsanjani Makes His Stand? If Hashemi Rafsanjani does not lead prayers this Friday on Qods Day, his opportunity for a political move may come four days later. The Assembly of Experts will convene for its regular meeting on 22 September."

Seems the regime is engaged in all out war against all opponents now. Wonder if Rafsanjani will be free to meet with the Assembly of Experts? The dictator, to complete his 'coup,' cannot allow that to happen, can he?

In case of regime action against him, do we know whether Rafsanjani has additional options, or must he take it all 'lying down?' Thanks.

[MD]

http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2009/09/this-nightmare-is-just-getting-worse.html

[Samuel]

"In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Stampa, he said, “If the Imam Khomeini was alive, he would have annulled these elections (and) condemned the violence and murders."

Karroubi must believe that he can just make things up out of thin air. If his interpretation of Imam Khomeini were right the Imam would have stood with Ayatollah Montazeri. INSTEAD THIS IS WHAT THE IMAM WROTE ABOUT MONTAZERI:

http://www.baabeilm.org/khomeini/montezari.pdf

Translation of Ayatollah Khomeini Letter Dismissing
Montazeri
The text of Ayatollah Khomeini's historic letter was recently printed in Abrar.
Tehran ABRAR 22 Nov 1997, page 2.
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. To Mr. Montazeri.
My heart is broken and filled with blood now that I am writing a few words to you. Perhaps one day
the people will realize the facts by reading this letter.
In your recent letter to me, you said that, in accordance with the Shari ah, you give priority to
my views over your own. I consider God my witness when I point out the following issues:
Since it has become clear that after me you are going to hand over this country, our dear Islamic
revolution, and the Muslim people of Iran to the liberals, and through that channel to the hypocrites
[Mojahedin-e Khalq], you are no longer eligible to succeed me as the legitimate leader of the state.
You, in most of your letters, speeches and stances, have shown that you believe the liberals and
hypocrites should rule in this country. It is so clear that your remarks have been dictated by the
hypocrites that I did not see any point in sending a reply. For instance, thanks to your speeches and
written work, the hypocrites took advantage of your stance in defense of their ilk to promote a
number of their comrades who had been condemned to death on charges of waging an armed
struggle against Islam and the revolution to positions of authority. Can you see what valuable
services you have offered to arrogance? On the issue of the murderer Mahdi Hashemi [a supporter
and relative of Ayatollah Montazeri, who was later executed], you considered him to be the most
religious person on earth. Despite the fact that it was proved to you that he was a murderer, you kept
sending messages to me to spare his life. There are so many other examples, similar to that of Mahdi
Hashemi, that I cannot be bothered to mention them all.
You no longer have the power of attorney on my behalf. Tell the people who bring you gold and
money to take them to Mr. Pasandideh s [Khomeyni s elder brother] residence in Qom or to me in
Jamaran. Praise be to God, you yourself will not have any financial commitments from this date.
If, in accordance with the Shari ah, you do consider my views to be superior to yours (which
certainly the hypocrites will advise you that it is against your interests to do so; and no doubt you
will become busy writing things which will further deteriorate your future), then you should listen to
the following words of advice I am giving you. It breaks my heart and my chest is full of agonizing
pain when I see that you, the fruit of my life s labor, are so ungrateful. However, by relying on
Almighty God, I give you the following words of advice, and it will be up to you whether you make
a note of them or not:
One: Try to change the members of your bureau so as to avoid feeding the hypocrites, Mahdi
Hashemi s clique, and the liberals from the sacred charity funds donated to the Imam.
Two: Since you are a gullible [sadeh lowh] person and are provoked easily, do not interfere in
political matters, and maybe then God will forgive you for your sins.
Three: Do not write to me ever again, and do not allow the hypocrites to pass state secrets to foreign
radio stations. Four: Since you became a mouthpice of the hypocrites and your speeches have
conveyed their wishes and letters to the people via the mass media, you have inflicted heavy blows
on Islam and the revolution. This is a great act of treason against the unknown soldiers of the Lord
of the Age, may our souls be sacrificed for him, and against the sacrifices made by the illustrious
martyrs of Islam and the revolution. If you wish to save yourself from hell fire, you had better
confess to all your sins and mistakes and maybe then God will help you.
I swear to God that from the start I was against choosing you as my successor, but at the time I did
not realize you were so gullible. To me you were not a resourceful manager but an educated person
who could benefit the religious seminaries. If you continue your deeds I will definitely be obliged to
do something about you. And you know me, I never neglect my obligation.
I swear to God that I was against appointing Mahdi Bazargan as the first prime minister, too, but I
considered him to be a decent person. I also swear to God that I did not vote for Bani-Sadr, as the
president either. On all these occasions I submitted to the advice of my friends. In the midst of my
pain and suffering, I wish to address our dear people from the bottom of my broken heart:
I have made a pledge with my God not to forgive evil individuals ever, if I am not obliged to do so.
I have made a pledge with my God that pleasing Him [God] is much greater priority than pleasing
my friends and other people. If the entire world were to rise against me, I would never abandon
justice and the truth. I do not care about history and current developments. I am only interested in
performing my religious duties. In addition to my pledge with God, I have promised the decent,
noble, and honest people to inform them of the facts when the time is appropriate. Islam s history is
full of instances of treason by its prominent figures against Islam. Try to make sure that you are not
influenced by the lies broadcast by foreign radio stations. These radio stations dictate their lies with
so much joy and enthusiasm these days. I beseech Almighty God to grant patience and tolerance to
this old father of the dear Iranian people. I beseech God to forgive me and to take me away from this
world so that I no longer have to experience the bitter taste of my friends treachery. We all submit
to God s will. We have no power without God s will. Everything comes from Him. Wishing you
peace: Ruhollah al-Musavi al-Khomeyni; dated: Sunday 6 Farvardin 1368.