Thursday
Sep242009
The Latest from Iran (24 September): New York is Long Gone
Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 18:20 
1600 GMT: Leading the Media by the Nose. Continuing on our theme of the Great New York Diversion, considered in this morning's analysis, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has declared in an interview with the Washington Post and Newsweek that he wants talks between Iranian and US experts to allay fears about his country’s nuclear programme: “Why not just let them sit and talk and see what kind of capacity they can build? I think it is a good thing to happen."Ahmadinejad also said Iran would offer to purchase enriched uranium from the US for medical purposes when Tehran sits down with the "5+1" powers in Turkey on October 1.
No one in the "Western" media, least of all the Washington Post and Newsweek, seems to have
realised that one of the President's motives for the talks might be the legitimacy that it gives his Government in the current internal crisis.
0900 GMT: Playing "Doctor" in the Cabinet. More fuss over the Minister of Science, whose claims to hold a doctorate from a British university, have come under scrutiny (see previous EA entries). Nature News reports, "Iranian researchers say they are dismayed and angered that a 2009 paper coauthored by Kamran Daneshjou, Iran’s science minister, appears to have plagiarized a 2002 paper published by South Korean researchers."
0645 GMT: Both sides in the post-election conflict are playing up their preferred version of yesterrday's events in New York. Government supporters are hailing President Ahmadinejad's speech to the United Nations, which did not begin until 4 a.m. Tehran time (and also noting tat he refrained from mentioning the Holocaust). The Green movement is effusive over the demonstrations outside the UN and more gatherings planned for today.
But for us, the important political developments are occurring in Iran. There will be more decoding of the signals from the Assembly of Experts, where Hashemi Rafsanjani's opening statement was followed by his non-appearance as the Assembly agreed and presented its final statement. We've attempted to analyse events in the US and in Iran, focusing on the legitimacy of the President, in a separate entry, as well as a quick look at Russia's latest diplomatic manieuvre on Iran's nuclear programme.
Before we leave the circus of Ahmadinejad in New York, a tribute to the most absurd story to accompany the trip. The American CBS News saw significance in "Iran Warns Men not to Sell Women's Undies".
Reader Comments (18)
Where was Rafsanjani for the 2nd day of the meeting of the Assembly of Experts? Does anyone know why he was absent?
the question regarding Rafsanjani's absence should be what's his plan B, if he has any!? He wanted to act upon law and use his influence & AE to make a change, with no success so AE declare their trust on SL's wisdom and sense of justice to lead the nation. Does anyone believe Rafsanjani has a plan B outside the system and law. I don't think so, he is not a shark people believe he is if he abandons his power and position.
He hates AN, that's a proved fact but he would not go as far as risking his position. My guess is that he will be a bitter man but I don't think his heart aches for people. Does anyone thinks differently?
Anna, according to the Tehran Times, on Tuesday, 2nd day of the Assembly of Experts meeting, Rafsanjani was present:
"A suspicious faction views the friendship among senior officials as an obstacle to achieving its goals, Rafsanjani stated in a meeting with Assembly of Experts members in Tehran on Tuesday."
http://www.mehrnews.com/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=951920
Observer,
Yes he did say that to the Assembly of Experts on Tuesday but (please correct me if I'm wrong)I believe that was the 1st day of the meeting. It has been reported that he was not present on Wednesday.
[Duplicate comment]
Protest Videos: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/video-of-protests-outside-the-united-nations/" rel="nofollow">Iranians Protest Outside the United Nations
http://qik.com/thelede" rel="nofollow">More video here
I wonder how this one turned out;
Maybe Hashemi's plan B is the declaration by “the ones who really care for regime & Iran". Yesterday Afshin posted the comment below. Maybe this Pasdaran statement was accompanied by a private, not-so-subtle communication leading to Hashemi's absence.
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Looks like the IRGC are exerting force again. Here's an inside account of what happened in day 2:
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/195773513/source-on-rafsanjani-and-khobregan-fiasco
Of course, this was to be expected. The IRGC weren't going to let Rafsanjani control the AE without a fight.
If this is true (and MikVerBrugge's sources have usually been accurate), then we should expect the Marja to move further against the regime. This may have been a dumb move by IRGC to further isolate themselves from the marja.
It was always expected that the guard would apply intimidation to the Assembly, as they have done to the Parliament, the election committee, the Marjah, and any and all sources of power that have disagreed with them. What is important is to note what response will there be from the opposition?
Rafsanjani could according to the charter of the AoE have a secret meeting and then publish a damning letter that in effect will damage everyone, or he could take a wait and see approach, for someone else to lead the charge (a few Marjah) and only be seen as a supporter. It may also be that Rafsanjani is waiting for a major mis step by the supreme leader, to launch an attack. All in all, I fear that the momentum of Quods day was lost again by inaction.
We have to go out again in mass to give the momentum to reformers.
I'm a little surprised that anyone can't see that the IRG Mannequins-Underwear Offensive is an attempt by the IRG to shore up its Islamicist credentials.
If the MikVerBrugge report is accurate, it sounds like war, pure & simple.
The Pasdaran used SL twice in yesterday's events... once to publicly justify interfering in politics (comment 7), and again to break up the AoE meeting (comment 9).
(if the 2 reports are true)
@ John K.
You are right. The length of the ladies cover, and their hejab is always a cover for Islamification by the government of the day. Mannequins have been banned many times before for the same reason. The Islamic Republic has been consist ant about two things for the past 30 years.
1) Oppression of women and 2) Oppression of the educated at the expense of the uneducated. All others form of oppression come and go, but these two stay consistently the same, with different variety. A major part of their agenda both spiritually and ideologically however remains that they are the enshrined protector of the Iranian nations "Namouse" [Chastity and purity]
It is all too ironic, cause one of the industries controlled by Pasdaran (apart from the smuggling, alcohol and other vice) is the prostitution networks. Under the cover of helping the poor and the unjust, they take runaway girls, convert them to prostitutes by repeated rape, and then have them turn tricks for money. They also control the import of blonds / Tajik whores from the ex soviet republics. Early post completion of the war with Iraq their main supply was the daughters and wives of their martyred comrades, however this supply has since dried up, and they have had to tap new supplies.
Thanks to Ali for posting Verbrugge's report. Now, if Verbrugge's right (and reports on the Mousavi/Rahnavard FB's indicate there's something to it), I'm not sure whereismyvote is right. Rafsanjani will HATE being pushed around by Pasdaran and maybe the SL. And the Marja can't be happy either.
I agree w/ Ali and Amy. This is all-out now. And pissing off Hashemi, Marja, and Reformists? Bad play, fellas, bad play.
whereismyvote,
"We have to go out again in mass to give the momentum to reformers."
This is what Hashemi and the reformers don't want! It is much too dangerous for the system that they are so keen on preserving!
As I see it, the Greens and Hashemi are stuck: if they want to prevail over the IRG, they need the people in the street to scare them;
but on the other hand, they are well aware that the islamic republic (reformers and clerics and all) is at high risk of being swept away if there ever was a really huge turnout in the street.
As Mousavi clearly states in his letter to Montazeri, the youth of Iran are increasingly turning away from religion; they don't want to reform the system, they want CHANGE!
Try as they might, there will be no "renaissance" of Islam (as a political regime), to use Afshin's word.
The regime has used the reformers as a plan B whenever the people threatened to rebel; since the election, it's the Iranians who have been using the greens as a screen behind which they can develop their own radical claims.
But the problem, from Mousavi's, Raf's, etc. point of view, is that total regime overthrow, at this point, is chaotic. All of the players involved (even Montazeri) come from the IR system. There is no credible, competent anti-regime opposition in Iran to step in to lead the nation. Yes, there is anti-regime opposition, but that has NO leadership.
Revolution would be, potentially, very dangerous and unstable.
Guys and Gals,
I think many are missing the significance of the overture by Ahmandinejed to buy enriched Uranium from the US. I firmly believe he is doing this because he has correctly surmized he cannot fight a two front war and hope to win. The domestic problem is his biggest concern and thus he must deal with the other to remove pressure. If he happens to solve it that would mean no new sanctions and the older ones being dropped. Presto--the economy is thriving answering one of the chief concerns of the reform movement. The question will be is this just another diversion to allow them to continue on the path for seeking nukes. For any questioning their desire for Nukes look no further than what Pakistan did. It is no mystery Iran is using the same URENCO plan Khan stole for Pakistan. Pakistan just like Iran kept telling everyone they weren't seeking nukes. The difference is that the US most likely knew and viewed it as a buffer in a region largely under the influence of the Soviets. Thus they could turn a blind eye towards it because it helped their geopolitcal position--same cannot be said for Iran.
If the Green supporters (the grassroots) are truly for revolution and not just reform (and I believe they are) why don't they join the People's Mujahedin of Iran and pick up AK-47's to fight?
I despise the MEK but at least they are honest about their beliefs and have the guts to fight a real war.