Middle East Inside Line: Palestine Unity Government Near?

On Monday, Hamas' Damascus-based political leader Khaled Meshal said that the organisation was close to an agreement with Fatah, thanks to the productive efforts of Cairo. The exiled Palestinian leader had been speaking with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Omar Suleiman, about the latest draft proposal.

The previous proposal was rejected by Hamas that did not want to be under the rule of the Palestinian Authority. The latest plan is an advisory committee, headed by Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, in which both sides can run daily issues of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank until presidential and parliamentary elections can be held in the first half of 2010. Fatah will be allowed to deploy 3,000 security personnel to Gaza and both sides will release each other's detainees.

Meshal said, "We overcame all the disagreements in the Egyptian paper," however, he had suggested changes for an agreement to be signed by the end of October. He added: "They [the Egyptians] will work on laying down a final draft for the reconciliation project in the coming few days."

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Shifts on Settlements; Egypt & Hamas Ally on "Normalisation"

Israel Manoeuvres on Settlements Issue: Just one day after the approval of new 455 housing units in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak (pictured) tacked back diplomatically and said that "freezing [settlement] construction is a correct national priority". He added, "Regarding the settlements, we need to act wisely and responsibly, not with harsh words and violence."

Barak's maneuver, coming just before US envoy George Mitchell's visit to Israel, both sends a signal to Washington and prepares the Israeli public for a policy shift.

Whether or not the US knew about Israel's construction of an additional 455 housing units, making Washington's protests in the last week posture rather than substance, it is now necessary for the Netanyahu Government to consider an alignment with the the US. And that in turns means convincing the public, and especially the core membership of the Likud Party,  that Israel needs to show "genorosity" on the settlements in return for Arab pledges to normalise relations.

Egypt and Hamas Ally to Slow "Normalisation" with Israel: Despite Saudi Arabia's explicit rejection of the normalization of ties with Israel, the Arab League's dismissal, and Israel's latest hesitations, Washington gave the good news: "Some Arab countries had agreed in normalizing their relations with Israel in exchange of the latter's temporary freeze in its settlements."

However, right after the US message, both Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and Cairo sent contradictory signals. On Sunday, Meshaal warned Arabs not to accept a temporary freeze in exchange for the normalization of relations with Israel. Then on Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said: "A settlement freeze in the West Bank is not of equal value to normalization, and will not bring this about alone."

Why this alliance of views, given recent hostility between Egypt and Hamas? Sources close to Hamas in the Gaza Strip stated that Meshaal's recent visit to Cairo "brought the Islamist movement and Fatah closer to ending their differences." The same sources added that Hamas agreed to sign a "reconciliation accord" with Fatah after the Egyptians promised to reopen the Rafah border crossing permanently .

In Cairo, both sides might have negotiated to slow the "normalization process between some Arab countries and Israel", or at least, on breaking up the "positive" atmosphere portrayed by Washington. This would not be a burden for Egypt both since the scope of these "normalization steps" is expected to be limited, and since Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan had already rejected taking a step towards Israel unless it halted settlement constructions completely and permanently.

Middle East Inside Line: Fatah and Israel, US Withdrawal From Iraq to Turkey?, Israel-Sweden Fight (Round 3)

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Fatah Backs Away from Negotiations with Israel: Nabil Shaath, who was re-elected in August to Fatah's central committee and is a former Palestinian prime minister and foreign minister, dismissed a return to negotiations unless Israel endorses freezing of settlements both in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; not temporarily but permanently.

During Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with President Obama's special envoy George Mitchell in London last week, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, had showed willingness to meet Netanyahu at next month’s UN General Assembly session in New York.

Shaath’s recent statement plays down the importance of this expected meeting, especially if it does not reflect a consensus in the balance of power between the "new blood" and the veterans of Fatah.

Earlier US Withdrawal from Iraq? The Turkish newspaper Milliyet claimed on Monday that the Obama Administration is preparing to announce the withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq eight months before the official date of August 2010 as a Christmas surprise to Americans.

The article claims that new landing fields and prefabricated houses are being constructed by American soldiers in the Incirlik base in Turkey. A report supposedly posted to Incirlik’s 39th Wing Commandership is calling for immediate preparations for the intake of 100,000 of the 142,000 US forces in Iraq.

Milliyet asserts that some high-ranking American soldiers believe the plans are not being disclosed because of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s insistence that the earlier withdrawal will prompt greater instability in his country.

Iraq - "Shoe Thrower" Al-Zaidi to Go Free: Iraqi journalist Muntazar al-Zaidi, will be released on 14 December 2009, exactly one year after he threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, after his three-year sentence was reduced for good behavior.

The Israel-Sweden Fight: Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt denied Haaretz's report that Sweden would work with Italy to pass a resolution condemning anti-Semitism at an upcoming European foreign ministers meeting.

The Swedish news agency TT reports the statement of the Swedish foreign ministry's head of communications, Cecilia Julin: "From the Swedish side we have no plans to handle this question through the informal foreign ministers' meeting in Stockholm." She added Bildt's suggestion that Italy Foreign Minister Frattini's comment must have arisen through an "Italian misunderstanding".

Swedish President Fredrik Reinfeldt also contributed to the discussion at a press conference in Stockholm. He said, "We cannot be asked by anyone to contravene the Swedish constitution, and this is something we will also not do within the European Union."

Israel's unofficial threat is on the table now. Bildt is supposed to visit Israel on September 11 for a one-day visit. According to Israeli diplomatic officials, "it would cast a serious cloud over the trip and Sweden's efforts to play a significant role in the diplomatic process" if there is no condemnation of the "stolen Palestianian organs" story from the Swedish side.