Middle East Inside Line: Palestine Unity Government Near?

On Monday, Hamas' Damascus-based political leader Khaled Meshal said that the organisation was close to an agreement with Fatah, thanks to the productive efforts of Cairo. The exiled Palestinian leader had been speaking with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Omar Suleiman, about the latest draft proposal.

The previous proposal was rejected by Hamas that did not want to be under the rule of the Palestinian Authority. The latest plan is an advisory committee, headed by Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, in which both sides can run daily issues of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank until presidential and parliamentary elections can be held in the first half of 2010. Fatah will be allowed to deploy 3,000 security personnel to Gaza and both sides will release each other's detainees.

Meshal said, "We overcame all the disagreements in the Egyptian paper," however, he had suggested changes for an agreement to be signed by the end of October. He added: "They [the Egyptians] will work on laying down a final draft for the reconciliation project in the coming few days."

A "Normal" Middle East: US Presses for Arab Steps on Israel

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The Jerusalem Post reports that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, working on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meetings, urged senior officials from Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to take steps toward normalizing relations with Israel. She later told reporters that talks were "extremely productive."

While Arab nations still insist on an Israeli settlement freeze before gestures such as the opening of trade and commercial offices, permission for Israeli overflights, and academic and cultural exchanges; Washington is increasing its pressure. Jeffrey Feltman, the top US diplomat for the Middle East, said after Clinton's meeting:

We don't want to wait for the perfect package. It's time to start negotiations now... We hope that the Arabs would find ways to demonstrate to the Israeli public that Israel will be an accepted, normalized part of the region.

Still, progress is still far from assured. The State Department's press release did not mention any "extremely productive" outcome, balancing calls for the re-launching of Israeli-Palestnians negotiations without preconditions with the vision of a freeze on settlements to foster a viable Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders:

The Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and the United States met today in New York City to coordinate on efforts to promote their shared vision of a stable, peaceful and prosperous Middle East, and to intensify their consultations as partners and friends.

The Ministers welcomed the trilateral meeting among President Obama, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and President Abbas on September 22, and expressed their hope for rapid progress towards the resumption of negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The Ministers welcomed President Obama’s important statement before the UN General Assembly which calls for the re-launching of negotiations – without preconditions – that address the permanent status issues: security for Israelis and Palestinians, borders, refugees, and Jerusalem. The Ministers reiterated their call for a freeze on settlement activities. They expressed their continued support for an independent, viable, and democratic Palestinian state living side by side in peace and security with Israel, with contiguous territory that ends the occupation that began in 1967, in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions, the Road Map, and the Arab Peace Initiative. They reiterated their full support for the Palestinian Authority under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian government led by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and their efforts to build the institutions of a future state. The Ministers also reiterated their support for achieving a comprehensive peace in the Middle East.

Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon's Jumblatt Seeking Iran Support?; Preparing for Showdown at UN

Lebanon's Jumblatt Pursuing Iran Link? Opposition MP Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze community, told Iran's Press TV on Saturday that Lebanon should be armed by Tehranan against the possibility of an Israeli aggression against Lebanon. He said: "They (Israelis) are not hiding that, they are saying we will attack or we will one day come to Lebanon again."

Jumblatt added: "We need anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons....Americans are not really willing to provide us with such weapons. They will tell you these weapons will be used against Israelis. OK, but my enemy is Israel."

Jumblatt called for the unity of the Arab world through dialogue between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran, as well as between the Arab League and Iran. This unity between the Shiite and Sunni blocks could bring an end to Israel's "aggression."

Preparing for the UN Show: There have already been vehement discussions at the United Nations General Assembly in advance of next week's speeches by national leaders. Libyan diplomat Ali Treki is taking over the UNGA Presidency from Nicaraguan President Miguel d'Escoto Brockman, as it is reported that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi will attend the Assembly next week after the release of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset al-Megrahi by Scottish officials.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's 23 September speech is also being discussed in diplomatic circles. The World Jewish Congress has launched a campaign on to convince leaders to boycott the address. The organization is also ciruclating a petition to the General Assembly which individuals can sign and send to UN officials.

Meanwhile, Brockman left the Presidency with a swipe at the "world powers [who] curbed him from aiding Palestinians." Brockman said, "My greatest frustration this year has been the Palestine situation," and added:

I wanted to help Palestine, but those who should supposedly have been most interested denied their support for reasons of "caution" that I was incapable of understanding.

He blamed the permanent five members of the Security Council (United States, Britain, France, China and Russia) of being "passive and apparently indifferent" on the Israeli blockade of Gaza in the past two years and called their behavior "disgraceful".

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Shifts on Settlements; Egypt & Hamas Ally on "Normalisation"

Israel Manoeuvres on Settlements Issue: Just one day after the approval of new 455 housing units in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak (pictured) tacked back diplomatically and said that "freezing [settlement] construction is a correct national priority". He added, "Regarding the settlements, we need to act wisely and responsibly, not with harsh words and violence."

Barak's maneuver, coming just before US envoy George Mitchell's visit to Israel, both sends a signal to Washington and prepares the Israeli public for a policy shift.

Whether or not the US knew about Israel's construction of an additional 455 housing units, making Washington's protests in the last week posture rather than substance, it is now necessary for the Netanyahu Government to consider an alignment with the the US. And that in turns means convincing the public, and especially the core membership of the Likud Party,  that Israel needs to show "genorosity" on the settlements in return for Arab pledges to normalise relations.

Egypt and Hamas Ally to Slow "Normalisation" with Israel: Despite Saudi Arabia's explicit rejection of the normalization of ties with Israel, the Arab League's dismissal, and Israel's latest hesitations, Washington gave the good news: "Some Arab countries had agreed in normalizing their relations with Israel in exchange of the latter's temporary freeze in its settlements."

However, right after the US message, both Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and Cairo sent contradictory signals. On Sunday, Meshaal warned Arabs not to accept a temporary freeze in exchange for the normalization of relations with Israel. Then on Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said: "A settlement freeze in the West Bank is not of equal value to normalization, and will not bring this about alone."

Why this alliance of views, given recent hostility between Egypt and Hamas? Sources close to Hamas in the Gaza Strip stated that Meshaal's recent visit to Cairo "brought the Islamist movement and Fatah closer to ending their differences." The same sources added that Hamas agreed to sign a "reconciliation accord" with Fatah after the Egyptians promised to reopen the Rafah border crossing permanently .

In Cairo, both sides might have negotiated to slow the "normalization process between some Arab countries and Israel", or at least, on breaking up the "positive" atmosphere portrayed by Washington. This would not be a burden for Egypt both since the scope of these "normalization steps" is expected to be limited, and since Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan had already rejected taking a step towards Israel unless it halted settlement constructions completely and permanently.