Analysis: 'New' Washington Consensus on Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process!

The tripartite meeting between Israeli, Palestinian, and American delegations took place in New York on Tuesday, with the leaders of the three groups participating. This was the picture which signals a shift in the US apparoach towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict , from a step-by-step Road Map to an edited Washington version of a 2002 Saudi initiative based on wider issues and a regional context.

Yet Washington's "middle way" between the demands of Palestinians and Israelis is not new. The steps taken in the Obama Administration's Middle East foreign policy since last January were supposed to be clearer when the leaders of Israelis and Palestinians shook hands on Tuesday. But even this picture is incomplete, since the failure to include regional actors such as Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Iraq will undermine any effort on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

According to Washington, the final status agreement must come with continuing negotiations on other issues, especially on the Israeli halt of settlements in the West Bank. The formula is clear: the reassurance of the Palestinian side with the promised withdrawal of Israelis to pre-1967 war borders while reducing pressure on the Israeli side by moving the discourse of “total settlement freeze” to that of “restraining settlements activity” as the Israeli concede a nine-month freeze.



On Tuesday, U.S. President met with the Israeli delegation at first. Then, he talked to the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and his aides. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, National Security Council head Uzi Arad, US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mitchell took part in the earlier bilateral Israeli-American meeting. At the end, the tripartite meeting finally was displayed.

"Permanent status negotiations must begin and begin soon. And more importantly, we must give those negotiations the opportunity to succeed," Obama said and added:

It is past time to talk about starting negotiations; it is time to move forward. It is time to show flexibility and common sense and sense of compromise that is necessary to achieve our goals... Leaders in the Middle East could not continue 'the same patterns, taking tentative steps forward, then taking steps back.'

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel achieved what it had wanted after the tripartite meeting. He said to reporters in New York:

There was general agreement, including on the part of the Palestinians, that the peace process has to be resumed as soon as possible with no preconditions... We had two good meetings, even very good, I would say – one with President Obama and his team and later with the Palestinian team. Although the importance of the meeting is in its existence, it was an ice-breaking meeting between people who have not worked with each other for months. It provides a possibility to change things in the future.

However, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was not as “positive” as his premier. He actually saw eye to eye with Abbas and said that "although the Palestinian side is saying it has no preconditions, it has all kinds of demands for moves in the West Bank." On the other hand, Netanyahu kept calm and came closer to Obama's diplomatic stance. He said:

They can raise the Jerusalem issue and we'll present our stance... In the joint meeting with Abu Mazen (Abbas) I told him that 'there is no use in insisting on these matters. Let's move forward.'

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas did not mention Netanyahu's 'talks without any preconditions' and reiterated that Israel had to leave all occupied lands and stop construction in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. He said:

In today's meetings we confirmed our positions and commitment to the road map and its implementation. We also demanded that the Israeli side fulfill its commitments on settlements, including on natural growth.

As for resuming talks, this depends on a definition of the negotiating process that means basing them on recognizing the need to withdraw to the 1967 borders and ending the occupation, as was discussed with the previous Israeli government when we defined the occupied territories as the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem.

This was reiterated in the talks with President Obama and in the trilateral talks. We believe the American administration will review the positions of the two sides in the coming weeks to make it possible for us to renew peace talks based on our stated position.

At the end of the tripartite meeting, we can say that the political discourses of each disputed party has not changed. For Israel, the following negotiations will continue without any Palestinian pre-conditions and for Palestinians, there will be no agreement without the withdrawal of Israeli existence and without a full halt to settlement construction. Lastly, and more importantly, for the Obama Administration, the process is likely to be a middle way: Guaranteeing Palestinians the full withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from the occupied lands and the Israeli halt to settlement freeze under Israeli authorization in the course of time; all of which to be mentioned in the final status agreement whereas confirming Israeli temporary freeze in settlements which is to come closer to a total halt in the course of time in return of Arab concessions in the name of normalization with Israel. So, all parties look like they have taken from the meeting now.

George Mitchell's answer to a question on whether the Obama Administration had skipped the settlement freeze focus and moved straight to final status issue tipped off the US position:

We have always made clear that they are means to an end, the end being the re-launching of negotiations on permanent status in a context in which there is a reasonable prospect for a successful conclusion to those negotiations... So there is absolutely no change in our focus.

However, this new version of Saudi Initiative in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is just a part of the Obama Administration's policy in the region. This middle-way solution can only work with new developments in US and Israeli relations with Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The follow-up period, so sensitive to any regional development, is more significant than the plans of the Obama Administration on paper. Therefore, right after the tripartite meeting, Obama said he is watching the process closely and the U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell would meet with Israeli and Palestinian negotiators next week, adding that he had asked his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, to report back to him on the status of the talks in October. For now, the Obama Administration has consolidated its position vis-a-vis Palestinians and Israelis. But, that is only for now....

Middle East Inside Line: Hariri Again PM-Designate in Lebanon; Israel's Roadblock "Concession"

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Hariri Back as Lebanon Prime Minister-Designate: Lebanese President Michel Suleiman has reappointed Saad Hariri as Prime Minister-designate for the second time, although the political deadlock between the Western-backed majority represented by Hariri and Hezbollah-led bloc has not been resolved. After meetings with lawmakers, President Suleiman acted on the basis that a majority still wanted Hariri as the new Prime Minister.

Israel Removes West Bank Roadblocks: Haaretz reports that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has ordered troops to remove 100 roadblocks from the entrances to Palestinian villages across the West Bank. The barriers were erected after the start of sucide bombings in the Second Intifada several years ago.

Israel's gesture is a belated compromise in the wake of an unfruitful round of talks with United States on the possibility of a two-state solution. The tactical offers a "concession" which, in fact, has no political cost but a possible economic advantage by providing a relatively integrated market (including for Israeli goods) in the West Bank.

Middle East Inside Line: Lebanon's Jumblatt Seeking Iran Support?; Preparing for Showdown at UN

Lebanon's Jumblatt Pursuing Iran Link? Opposition MP Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze community, told Iran's Press TV on Saturday that Lebanon should be armed by Tehranan against the possibility of an Israeli aggression against Lebanon. He said: "They (Israelis) are not hiding that, they are saying we will attack or we will one day come to Lebanon again."

Jumblatt added: "We need anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons....Americans are not really willing to provide us with such weapons. They will tell you these weapons will be used against Israelis. OK, but my enemy is Israel."

Jumblatt called for the unity of the Arab world through dialogue between Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran, as well as between the Arab League and Iran. This unity between the Shiite and Sunni blocks could bring an end to Israel's "aggression."

Preparing for the UN Show: There have already been vehement discussions at the United Nations General Assembly in advance of next week's speeches by national leaders. Libyan diplomat Ali Treki is taking over the UNGA Presidency from Nicaraguan President Miguel d'Escoto Brockman, as it is reported that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi will attend the Assembly next week after the release of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset al-Megrahi by Scottish officials.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's 23 September speech is also being discussed in diplomatic circles. The World Jewish Congress has launched a campaign on to convince leaders to boycott the address. The organization is also ciruclating a petition to the General Assembly which individuals can sign and send to UN officials.

Meanwhile, Brockman left the Presidency with a swipe at the "world powers [who] curbed him from aiding Palestinians." Brockman said, "My greatest frustration this year has been the Palestine situation," and added:

I wanted to help Palestine, but those who should supposedly have been most interested denied their support for reasons of "caution" that I was incapable of understanding.

He blamed the permanent five members of the Security Council (United States, Britain, France, China and Russia) of being "passive and apparently indifferent" on the Israeli blockade of Gaza in the past two years and called their behavior "disgraceful".

Middle East Inside Line: Instability in Lebanon

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Hariri Withdraws as Proposed Lebanon PM: Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Sa'ad Hariri's plans did not work. At the risk of breaking ties with Israel, he was behind his decision to form a government including Hezbollah. However, Hariri has withdrawn from his nomination after Hezbollah's rejection of Hariri's proposed 30-member cabinet list. After meeting President Michel Suleiman, Hariri said: "I declare to all Lebanese, that today, I apologized to his excellency the president about [not being able to] form the government, hoping that this decision will be in Lebanon's interest."

Now, Suleiman is consulting with lawmakers to name a new Prime Minister to form the government.

Middle East Inside Line: Stalemate over Lebanon's Government; Israel's Settlements as "Human Rights"

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Stalemate over Lebanon Government: Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri (pictured) submitted the list for a new national unity government to Lebanese president Michel Suleiman on Monday. Hariri's "March 14" alliance gets 15 of 30 seats in the new cabinet and the opposition "March 8" alliance 10 seats. The other five seats will be chosen by the president.

Hezbollah and its allies refused to support the  list since several ministries and appointees that it demanded had been rejected by Hariri. Haaretz quotes one senior Hezbollah official: "We will not deal with this proposal because we know nothing about it. As far as we are concerned, it does not exist and we will have nothing to do with it."

President Suleiman is not expected to approve any Cabinet proposal that does not have opposition support.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Government has decided to intervene. An Israeli official said that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the issue in the past, and that his position then still stands: "If Hezbollah joins the Lebanese government, then the Lebanese government is accepting responsibility for Hezbollah's actions, including its actions against Israel."

Israel's Settlements Expand for Sake of "Human Rights": On Monday, right-wing lawmakers, including Supreme Court Judge Eliyakim Rubinstein, celebrated the establishment of a new neighborhood in the E-1 corridor connecting Jerusalem to settlement suburbs in the West Bank. National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau and Information Minister Yuli Edelstein were also present.

Following Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's decision to approve construction of 455 new homes, this was a "victory" demonstration for some Likud Party members. Landau told the crowd:

This land is ours and ours alone... It is the Arabs who are occupiers... A settlement freeze is a violation of human rights. What can we tell the families? Don't have any more kids, don't build another house, you can't have a playground here. This construction must not stop under any circumstances.