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Monday
Sep212009

The Afghanistan Routine (Again): Obama Cautious, Military Insistent, 25,000 More Troops Sent

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US TROOPS AFGHAN2Enduring America, 5 September: "Obama history is only repeating itself....A period of intense debate with US commanders pushing for as big a troop increase as possible, and Obama’s advisors spinning back to limit the escalation....The immediate culmination, with a “compromise” of an additional 30,000 American forces (complementing a rise in private “security” units and contractors). You will find it justified by the rhetoric that we must fight Al Qa’eda and extremists in Afghanistan so they will not terrorise us “here” and supported by the promise that this is a combination of non-military and military steps to bring stability and progress to the Afghan people."

UPDATED 1545 GMT: Washington chatter is buzzing about the initial source of today's "McChrystal: More Forces or 'Mission Failure'" story, Bob Woodward of the Washington Post. The pillow fight will be over whether Woodward was right to run with a report leaked to him by a Government insider.

All this will miss the point. Woodward, the reporter of Watergate fame, has become Rent-a-Journalist for whichever side in the Government wants to turn the wind their way on a story. So this summer he was the outlet for the Obama Administration's insistence that they would ask, "WTF [What the F***]?" on any demand for a troop increase. This time he could be serving those who want to push the military's case for the boost or Administration insiders who want to uphold the line that they will not be bumped.

Doesn't really matter. In the end, we'll get to the settlement which will give the military what it wants while allowing Obama advisors to preserve the image that they have kept a lid on the escalation.


I really can't be bothered to spill a lot of words on the latest development in US strategy towards Afghanistan. Why bother to go through 400+ pages of a supposed mystery when you've seen the "surprise" ending in the final paragraphs? President Obama plays the cautious line, in his media blitz yesterday (here and here and here), of no decision taken yet but tips his hand with the rhetoric of "Must Fight Al Qa'eda". His military, just to make the President isn't so cautious that he might actually rule against them in the purported review of strategy, ensure that high-profile US outlets like The New York Times carry the message today, "General [McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan] Calls for More U.S. Troops to Avoid Afghan Failure". The White House undoubtedly will put out its response, for tomorrow's newspapers, that discussions continue under the eye of a President wanting to make sure all dimensions are considered.

And sometime in the next month or two, the "compromise" will be announced of 25,000 more US troops to Afghanistan.

Please, it's bad enough being depressed about this spin cycle. At least don't bore me with repetition.
Monday
Sep212009

Latest Iran Video: More from Qods Day (18-19 September)

The Latest from Iran (18 September): Qods Day
Iran Video: Qods Day Protests (18 September)

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Leaked Revolutionary Guard Radio Over Qods Day Image

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0PhDrGAzn4&feature=autoshare_twitter[/youtube]

"Basiji, Come and Get Paid!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8wvvS53Tbo[/youtube]

"Down with Mahmoud the Traitor!"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkC5aGCeo2w[/youtube]

Fighting Back Against the Basji

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rupvcJOWq7s[/youtube]

The Clerics Arrive (But Who Are They?)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAvWnXSEWt4[/youtube]

Isfahan

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyXugHhHZws&feature=quicklist[/youtube]

Booing Ahmadinejad During His Speech

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86PFRus36dg[/youtube]

The Sea of Green

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAEl9bUfPk8[/youtube]

Police Hold Back Basiji As Demo Passes

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-ZlIQ0tLWM[/youtube]

Confronting the Basiji

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY1epSB8sEc[/youtube]

Protests in front of Islamic Republic News Agency

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZkCF8mASqA[/youtube]

Removing a Hezbollah Banner

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzt4zOYatvY&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
Monday
Sep212009

Iran: Russia Plays Big (Protective) Brother

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dmitry-medvedev_1On Sunday, in an interview with CNN, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that his Israeli counterpart Shimon Peres assured him that Israel would not launch an attack on Iran. Describing, an attack as "the worst thing that can be imagined," he said, "When he visited me in Sochi, Israeli President Peres said something important for us all: 'Israel does not plan to launch any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this.'"

Asked about the possible delivery of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, Medvedev said Russia had the right to sell defensive weapons to Iran. As for non-military measures, the Russian leader declared that sanctions are often ineffective and no action should be taken against Iran except as a last resort.

There will undoubtedly be much grumbling about Moscow's position and, conversely, some unsupported declarations that the Russians can be brought around to back stricter economic measure. The cold political reality is that, in this international conjunction of events, Russia sees its advantage in playing Tehran's "big brother". Strengthening the military relationship through the sales of S-300s and increasing its economical and political position with, Moscow hopes not only to consolidate its power in the Middle East but also to maintain leverage against Washington on issues such as the reduction of strategic offensive weapons and the deployment of missile defense system.
Monday
Sep212009

Obama-Netanyahu-Abbas: No Negotiations, Only A "Review"

ABBASNETANYAHUDespite the significant differences that have blocked any direct Israel-Palestine talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will hold a joint meeting with President Obama on Tusday at 11 a... at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in Manhattan. At first, Obama will talk to each leader seperately and then the tripartite meeting will start.

Haaretz reports, from a source in Netanyahu's office, that it has been agreed with the U.S. administration that the meeting will not include any negotiations, with leaders merely reviewing developments.
Monday
Sep212009

Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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AHMADINEJAD KHAMENEIEnduring America, 19 September: "[On 12 June the Supreme Leader] put his own authority on the line, and much of the story of the last three months has been whether he ensured or damaged that authority. So absence [from Qods Day] comes not in the midst of certitude of his Supreme Leadership but in the question of whether Khamenei is now scrambling for position vs. his own President."

Because the speech hadn't been given much advance publicity, in contrast to his Friday Prayer appearances, the attention to the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address yesterday was initially a trickle, especially outside Iran. The horribly misleading Associated Press summary dominated the news cycle for hours, and later reports by Western agencies flowed into diversions such as the rhetoric on Israel and Khamenei's purported comments on the Iranian nuclear programme.

For those clued up on the internal Iranian situation, the trickle turned into a torrent of significance, especially with the appearance of former President Hassan Rafsanjani, a stare away from President Ahmadinejad, at the event. This was not just a Supreme Leader declaring that he had the seen the crescent of the moon. This was Ayatollah Khamenei trying to shore up his shaky position by bringing together the current President and "Establishment" figures such as Rafsanjani.

While I would not go as far as to say a deal between Khamenei and Rafsanjani was struck before the speech, I am persuaded that the Supreme Leader's rather curious declaration that confessions in trials cannot be used against detainees (curious because it did not fit the rest of the address and was not featured in the Iranian media, either that of the state or the opposition) was a pointed political offer. It does not mean that opposition leaders are safer today --- the assertion of the AP mis-story --- for there are other methods that can be used to pressure and "convict" them. It does mean that the confessions in the Tehran trials charging Rafsanjani's family with corruption can be tucked away.

That is, if Rafsanjani plays his part and backs off a challenge to the Presidency and the system. No one noticed yesterday that the next important event, as important as President Ahmadinejad's self-promotion in New York, is the meeting of the Assembly of Experts tomorrow. That gathering, delayed from August, will be headed by Rafsanjani, and it will include many of the senior clerics who have increasingly come out against the Government.

So here was a potential platform, coming four days after the Qods Day demonstrations, for Rafsanjani to make a public stand, forcing an initial battle in the Assembly and beyond that with Ahmadinejad and allies. Within the broader language of the Eid-al-Fitr address, trying to put the opposition beyond acceptability because of its direction by "foreign agents" like the US and Israel, Khamenei was offering Hashemi an alternative to a public move at the Assembly.

Beyond that step, however, is a snapshot of the Supreme Leader's shaky position. When he offered a similar deal to Rafsanjani on 19 June, Khamenei was doing so at the head of events. He was the one who had proclaimed that Ahmadinejad could be President, he was the one who had called on Iran to stand against the opposition, he was the one who could say as Supreme Leader that religion supported the Iranian political system.

Three months, he does not lead but responds. He is trying to counter the challenge of his own clerical establishment. He has failed to stamp his authority on a President who seems determined to fight a battle to a bloody political end, whatever the cost to the legitimacy of an Islamic Republic. And he cannot stop those tens of thousands coming out on the streets against that President and, to an extent, against him.

On 5 August, when the Supreme Leader invoked his authority to inaugurate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was the one who stood tall as the President approached awkwardly and kissed Khamenei on the shoulder. Today, it is Khamenei who stumbles with hand outstretched.