Tuesday
Sep072010
Iran Exclusive: Rafsanjani Declares "I Won't Bear This Situation"
Tuesday, September 7, 2010 at 7:47 
Sources inside Iran have provided new information about the recent political manoeuvres of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, dramatically altering our assessment of his relationship with the Supreme Leader and others in the Iranian system.Our reading over the last month has been that Rafsanjani has aligned himself with Ayatollah Khamenei, giving himself both some leverage against the President and protection against attacks from his foes within the establishment.
Iran Exclusive: The Escalating Battle With Ahmadinejad
Publicly this has been displayed by Rafsanjani's support for the Supreme Leader's message of "unity": the former President joined the Qods Day march last Friday to chants of loyalty to Khamenei and praise for Hashemi. Rafsanjani has also devoted his recent statements, for example as head of the Expediency Council, to strident denunciation of the US and the "West" rather than comments on the internal situation.
Specifically, we thought that a key element of the alignment with Khamenei came through action on the post-election abuses. Last month Rafsanjani personally brought the case files of prisoners who had been mistreated to the Supreme Leader, and he insisted on hand-delivering a letter about the systematic abuse of Hamzeh Karami --- his long-time secretary, managing editor of the Jomhouriat website, and senior official at Islamic Azad University --- to Khamenei.
Days later, Iran's judiciary suspended three officials from their posts for connections with the post-election abuses and killings at Kahrizak Prison. One of those officials was Saeed Mortazavi, Tehran Prosecutor General in 2009 and now an aide to the President. Mortazavi had been a primary target for conservatives who were unhappy with Ahmadinejad's handling of the post-election crisis, so we took the move as a sign that the Supreme Leader was listening to their complaints
Our sources, however, bring us a far different narrative, one that points to serious disputes all the way to the top of the Iranian system.
When Rafsanjani brought the Karami letter to Khamenei, he told the Supreme Leader, "I come here by myself because I am sure your office does not care" about the detainees. Khamenei did not take the bait, however. He refused to look at the letter in front of Hashemi, saying he would read it later.
That in itself would seem a minor rebuff, given the broader public signals that followed. It is what happened next that raises eyebrows.
Rafsanjani took his disappointment to a private gathering of officials of his Kargozaran (Executives of Construction) party. His declaration was clear, "I will not bear this situation. I will begin my opposition against everybody."
It is possible, of course, that Rafsanjani was still caught up in the heat of anger, but given his lengthy political experience and his pragmatic approach, it is very unlikely that he spoke from impulse. (Sources support this.)
What may be more important is the question of whether the former President can do anything. One of our top EA correspondents has evaluated, going back to last Qods Day, that Rafsanjani's power within the system is diminished and that he can do little to confront Ahmadinejad.
Another EA correspondent, however, thinks Rafsanjani still has key bases for action. He is head of both the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. For now, he has fended off the President's effort to wrest away control of the Islamic Azad University, Iran's largest, which is still a Rafsanjani stronghold. And this correspondent thinks that Rafsanjani still has an appeal for the Iranian people, who are looking for a way out of the political quagmire and economic stagnation.
We shall see if Rafsanjani makes a move and how much he and his allies can do. Meanwhile, the episode may say just as much about Ayatollah Khamenei.
Rafsanjani's wider message when he took the Karami letter to the Supreme Leader was clear: read it and put Ahmadinejad behind you. Khamenei would not go that far.
And that is indicative of the Supreme Leader's recent manoeuvres (and indeed those going back to the dispute over the Ahmadinejad Cabinet and control of ministries last summer) with his troublesome President. Khamenei will issue public rebukes, as he just did over Ahmadinejad's appointment of special envoys for foreign policy.
However, those rebukes do not necessarily keep the President in check. Last summer Ahmadinejad, forced by the Supreme Leader to withdraw the appointment of his close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as 1st Vice President, soon brought Rahim-Mashai back into his office as Chief of Staff. And the special envoys have not disappeared yet, despite the anger of the Foreign Ministry.
More on this --- much more --- later this week....
Reader Comments (19)
Rafsanjani is perhaps the leader they most need at this point, and the situation is indeed intolerable, but without an election or some kind of internal coup there can be no real change.
Apparently the Supreme Leader has a lot of problems with the president but he cannot dismiss him without loosing his own legitimacy. He probably tries to gain time. Otherwise we should suppose he is believing that the Hidden Imam is allmost here wich doesn't seem true. Probably he will try to put somebody easygoing to weaken the opposition. This could be a strategic plan for him. Rafsanjani is not the best choice though... He needs someone loyal to him that the Guards cannot, more or less, oppose. At least in the first place.
Could the sources be bluffing? Working for the intelligence ministry
Could the sources be bluffing? Working for the intelligence ministry
Megan,
"1. Rafsanjani has no spine and even if we implant one his body will reject it." Great :-)
As for the rest, Iranians are probably not waiting any longer to be rescued by Raffers, Karroubi or Mousavi. They are just watching how the different regime factions are fighting against each other. A dangerous attitude, because the most radical forces of the IR could come to power, but without alternative, if they don't want to join the other prisoners.
Imho this regime is already destroying itself, particularly with regard to AN's preference for chaos and crisis.
Arshama
[...] Rafsandjani: Ich werde diese Zustände nicht länger hinnehmen [...]
Bijan77,
Why subscribe to the savior model of social change? Hasn't this been the biggest problem with us Iranians, constantly waiting for a knight in shining armor to come to the rescue, instead of seeing ourselves, everyday Iranians, as agents of change?
Besides, there are plenty of people who have shown greater fortitude and boldness than either Rafsanjani or Mousavi, such as Majid Tavakoli and the countless other political prisoners, the Mourning Mothers, the human rights activists, etc. THESE are the people who "hold the hearts" of the majority of Iranians.
Bijan77,
The question of leadership was raised from day one. And yes, it remains a pivotal issue. My point is that Mousavi et al do not hold the "hearts" of the majority. Support for them is motivated by expedience and tactics, not loving admiration for who they are. Mousavi and the reformists have no future in a post-IR Iran, and they know it.
Bijan77 wrote, "how does the movement move from theory to action without some level of specific leadership?"
Great question. You should pose it to Mousavi, who's become quite a wallflower in the past few months.
Well, this development, if true, is interesting. Seems like people inside Iran (from some comments) and elsewhere had Rafsanjani expectations after his July 09 Friday Prayer speech. A year or so has passed, and 'scuttlebut' is almost uniformly negative now. Some label him as a murderer from the publicized execution years. Or as Megan and Arshama agreed -- no backbone.
So one has to wonder, as SL wrote above, what CAN he do that is positive after all that has happened? What 'strings' has he left to pull nowadays? Months ago, some said they thought he could change things via his two chair positions and his myriad contacts. Then nothing visible in that direction occurred.
Seems like the notion back then was that the 'Rafsanjani way' was a means to accomplish needed changes while avoiding a genuine revolution with its accompanying destruction of lives and infrastructure. Perhaps few understood at the time the stranglehold the govt already had on the country.
As always, here's hoping for the change people in Iran want, the sooner the better, because every day that passes, the regime continues its brutality unabated. If Rafsanjani could facilitate even part of a transition, good luck to him.
"So one has to wonder, as SL wrote above,..."
Gee, I just realised that the abbreviation we commonly use for Supreme Leader, SL, is the same as Scott Lucas' initials: SL !!!! LOL!!!!
The vast majority of my friends in Iran from Tehran University view Karroubi and Mousavi as their leaders and have nothing but utmost respect for them. Don't listen to the wishful thinking of Iranians abroad who reject these leaders because they are willing to accept a reformed and democratic Islamic Republic.
Bijan,
There are enough people who could take the leadership role, but that makes it necessary to focus on others than Moussavi and Karroubi, still defending this rotten IR. To me both are part of the problem, not its solution. As long as they don't commit themselves to human rights, I don't see any changes to the problems of our country. Do you really want a political system, based on the Sharia, which allows cutting off people's limbs and stonings?
Remember how Khomeini came to power: only few Iranians knew him in the beginning, but with the help of international media and domestic propaganda he soon turned into a "liberator" from the cruel monarchy.
Mullahs and monarchs are out. I want democracy for Iran, that's all...
Arshama
IranPhd,
Could you please ask your friends from Tehran University, if this so-called "reformed and democratic Islamic Republic" will be based on the Sharia or on the International Declaration of Human Rights?
Thanks in advance.
Arshama
IranPhd, I somehow expected this answer, especially after reading your reply to Bijan. My first reaction is obviously cynical: does a progressive reading of the Sharia mean that people get stoned with more compassion?
But, seriously, where does this progressive reading of Sharia exist? And how do you explain to all those women fighting for equal rights that they remain second-class citizens because of these "holy" laws?
Perhaps most of your friends are men, otherwise I don't see any logic in this indifference towards women's rights.
Obviously I don't expect from a generation, brainwashed by the regime during its lifetime, anything else than fundamental ignorance of its human rights, but I still hope that Iranian women, who have suffered most during the past 31 years, will be a vehicle for progress in society.
Arshama
IranPhd,
With one year at Tehran University, you have such a large pool of friends that you feel their views are statistically significant on this topic???
My friends at Tehran University and in street of Iran said "Mousavi Bahaanes, Koleh Nezam Neshaanes"; Mousavi is an excuse, our target is Islamic Republic!
It is obvious those who got help with their entrance exams from Islamic Republic and made it to Tehran University (or any other university for that matter) and those whose education are funded by Islamic Republic will be loyal to Islamic Republic guards. They just would like a different flavor of these rotting guards. I hope for the sake of their children and all children of Iran the students whose views you have shared with us are few in number.
By the way if after 31 years the person still needs more data point to realize that Islamic Republic is socially, morally, politically, economically, and structurally bankrupt then that person does not deserve the higher education he/she is receiving.
With regard to your reference to “Iranians Abroad”’; Iranians abroad, see Iran from 35,000 feet altitude while Iranians in Iran see things from 500 feet altitude. Iranians abroad, therefore, have much better perspective on situation in Iran and its failed system: They see Islamic Republic for a drug cartel that it is. Iranians abroad, are the biggest asset Iran has and they are Islamic Republic worst nightmare. Iranians abroad have survived Islamic Republic and can no longer be fooled by its snake oil salesman like Khomeini and his minions, Mousavi, Karroubi, Kadivar, etc., etc.
IranPhd,
Your reply is revealing, because you ignore the main question and try to present me as an idiot instead. Obviously you have no answer to my central question about the position of women in your cherished "reformed" Holy Republic!
The idea of reforming the Islamist ideology of this system is futile, as ideologies are not reformable. The best example for this is your cherished Mr Kadivar, who resorted to lies, presenting freedom for Gaza and Lebanon as one of the Green movement's main goals. Apparently Iranian protesters, who were beaten, imprisoned, tortured and killed for demanding justice in their homeland are but masochists.
Your argumentation reminds me of communist apologists, who praised the theory, ignoring actual realities of communist states. If Islamism would have been reformable, it had happened during the past 31 years. What we see instead is a bunch of greedy backwarded mullahs, looting national income, and fooling their poor supporters.
It is just as Khomeini said shortly after the Revolution to his naive supporters: "Be only mindful of doomsday!" (faghat be qiyamat fekr konid).
31 years later it spells: Steaks for us, bones for you!
Ignoring realities is no solution to the misery of Iran, it will only accelerate the collapse of our country.
Arshama
Lies. Straight up.
Lies. Straight up.
Hi IranPhd,
I'm afraid I have to agree with Arshama that Islamism has failed to deliver the demands for political freedom and social justice that in large part (not exclusively) sparked the Revolution. The main beneficiaries - and after time, main survivors -of the Revolution were conservative religious elements who were against the the Westernising and secularising efforts of the Shah.
I'd be curious to know what you and your friends think of just the simple separation of church and state within a democracy. Even a progessive reading of Sharia leaves you with an imposed religion that exercises political and judicial power over its citizens, greatly restricting or even forbidding religious freedom, freedom of expression and many other universal civil and human rights.
I appreciate the fact that your politically active friens can't be too explicit, but if you get the chance to bring up the subject, I'd love to know what they say. They, after all - if they don't emmigrate - will be part of the next generation of professionals ... if there are still jobs for them.
Sigh.