The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak

Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Israel Presses Ahead with Settlements, Tehran Draws Line on Nuke Talks
The Latest from Iran (5 September): A Quiet Phase

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2000 GMT: Psychological Warfare. Unsurprisingly, the Fars News story that Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali is the subject of an arrest warrant, due to a financial dispute with the mobile phone company Irancell, appears to be a bit of fiction to shake up the reformist movement.

The specific claim is that Ali Karroubi is connected with Persian Telecom, which failed to carry out advertising obligations for Irancell. However, Irancell has told Saham News, connected with Karroubi party's Etemade Melli:

Mr. Ali Karroubi does not hold any shares in Persian Telecom....The two companies have a business association in the form of purchasing Irancell products and selling them and therefore no advertisement is done on behalf of Irancell by Persian Telecom. (Translation from Tehran Bureau)

1925 GMT: The Reformist Fightback. A series of reformist members of Parliament and clerics have been striking back at the comments of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, General Ali Mohammad Jafari (see 1730 GMT), all day. The latest is Hojatoleslam Alikhani, a cleric and MP, who has emphasised that the military should not enter political issues.

1920 GMT: The Battle for the Universities (Cont.). Iranian newspapers and the Islamic Republic News Agency report, “The Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies [has been] tasked by the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council to revise the human sciences curriculum."

The head of the Institute declared, “In our country a large part of the syllabus… is not in line with our Iranian-Islamic culture. This calls for a revision." The syllabus will be revised
“based on the supreme leader’s recommendations.” (Agence France Press has an English summary.)

1730 GMT: Pursuing the Revolutionary Guard. Following up our last update yesterday, The Assembly of Combatant Clerics had responded to the claims of Revolutionary Guard Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari, alleging that former President Khatami and other prominent reformists have tried to "unseat" the Supreme Leader and Government, by filing a formal complaint against Jafari and Keyhan newspaper for publishing lies and insulting several members of the Assembly.

1725 GMT: Responding to claims by Deputy Head of Judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, that he had not presented any evidence of detainee abuse in his meeting with the three-member panel investigating the claims, Mehdi Karroubi has described three documents that he presented.

1715 GMT: Hey, Look Over There! According to Press TV, the Supreme Leader gave visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez a quick international lesson on Sunday: "The US had far greater failures in the Islamic Republic of Iran than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine. A power has been formed in this region which was once regarded by the US as its courtyard."

Surprisingly, the article offered no reference by Ayatollah Khamenei made to Iran's internal situation.

1440 GMT: Regime Goes After Karroubi. Fars News reports that an arrest warrant has been issued for Mehdi Karroubi's son, Ali. The cause of the action is a financial dispute involving one of Iran's largest mobile phone companies, Irancell, for whom Karroubi's company was supposed to sell phone cards. The amount involved is almost $2.5 million.

Nice touch, by the way, for Fars to use this as the illustration for the story:


1305 GMT: Josh Shahryar's "Green Brief" summarising the events of Saturday is now out.

1255 GMT: As the regime pushes its campaign for a "proper" academic sector (see 0740 GMT), former President Khatami held his own discussion with the Islamic Association of University Teachers. He pointedly challenged both the Supreme Leader's call on academics to be the commanders in a war against "Western" soft power and last Friday's prayer address in Tehran for a "non-Western" approach to humanities. Khatami expressed his opposition to those who in the name of fighting western liberalism, were forcing people to follow their path by employing fascism and totalitarianism ideologie and warned the authorities to start rebuilding public trust before all the opportunities are wasted."

1015 GMT: Business as Usual. Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, who seems to be the regime's "hold-the-line" guy on detentions and prosecutions, declared Saturday that the replacement of Saeed Mortazavi as Tehran prosecutor by Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi will make no difference to the current approach: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails."

1010 GMT: Methinks He Doth Protest Too Much. Presidential spokesman Aliakbar Javenfekr is a bit upset at the claim, highlighted by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bohanar (see Friday's updates), that up to six of the Ministerial nominees only got approval after the Supreme Leader's intervention of a letter to Parliament: "This was not an order at all but a consultative and friendly view which compelled the lawmakers to work more tolerantly with the government." Bahonar was "insulting the lawmakers who through their independent, conscious, and intelligent vote helped establish a powerful, efficient government".

0850 GMT: The three-member judiciary panel investigating allegations of detainee abuse has said that Mehdi Karroubi has formally submitted the names of four detainees who will appear before the panel if invited.

0810 GMT: We've split off our opening update on the reformist fightback as a separate entry, "How Important is the Mousavi Statement?"

0800 GMT: No, No, It Ain't So. The head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is insisting that the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are "questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present".

We linked Friday to the Farsi-language site Norooz, which has collected the names and descriptions of the dead, but we're hoping to help Mr Boroujerdi later today with an English translation of the list.

0740 GMT: In recent days, we've been updating on the regime's statements linking academia and the "proper" post-election path in Iran, including the Supreme Leader's address to heads of universities and research centres as "commanders" of the fight against foreign "soft power" and the statement in last Friday's prayers in Tehran warning against "Western-style" instruction in humanities.

Today The New York Times has an excellent article by Robert Worth today, "Iran’s Universities Punish Students Who Disputed Vote". Drawing from Iranian website, it not only notes the arrests and summoning for questioning of politically active students but also writes that "a presidential panel has begun an investigation of the humanities curriculums at universities".

The lengthiest passage, however, summarises the academic and political fight around Islamic Azad University:

Significantly, several clerics and high-ranking officials have taken aim at Islamic Azad University, which is based in Tehran and has branches around the country. The university is largely run by the family of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful moderate and leading opponent of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“This university must once again be purified,” Ayatollah Muhammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the president’s spiritual adviser, said during a meeting with new cabinet members, the Rouydad Web site reported. “This purification must occur at the management level and other levels. You see just how many who do not believe in religion, Islam and God have attended and graduated from this university.”

Another cleric, Muhammad-Reza Babai, called for the new minister of higher education to review Azad’s management charter, during a Friday Prayer sermon in the central city of Kerman. The new minister, Kamran Daneshjoo, has also accused Azad of failing to meet standards.

Comments

[Pedestrian]

I think another key note to Mousavi's statement was this "golden balance" that must be achieved in determining the goals of this movement: too much or too little will alienate a large base. There are however, minimum achievable objectives that all parties can agree on. Pinpointing those minimums is key.

[Scott Lucas]

Great to see you here, Pedestrian. I think you're right --- will be watching to see what impact this statement has in run-up to Qods Day (18 Sept.).

S.

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[Afshin]

Mousavi and the green movement have been talking the talk for a while now but have not walked the walk...many people stuck out their necks for him and unless he comes out in force and prays to god that the people will follow him to the streets again, it does not look good for him. He can not lead on words alone...

Quds Day (18 Sept.) and "Eyde Fetr" (which i think is at the end of Ramadan on sept 20) is really do or die for Mousavi....

As my dad use to say when I was a kid, there is no taxes on words...

[Pedestrian]

Afshin, personally, I don't want to "follow" Mousavi into the streets. He's not the leader of this movement, and will lose credibility with many of its followers if he ever claims to be.
And "the walk" is not a sudden leap or run. It coincides with the talk and has been going on for some time now. The only way to "win" this thing ("win" being a bad word to use here) is to wait it out and stick around for the ride. There is no grand walk on the red carpet to wait for.
What would you expect him to do?

[FreeIran]

This fight over Azad University is interesting. Only a few days ago I read a report about how the Hashemi clan had tried to move the University assets to a safe place, effectively protecting it from the praying hands of Ahmadinejad/Sepah. Of course soon after, Khamenei released a statement rejecting this transfer. Go figure...

[Amy]

Am I confused... are they canceling Hashemi's prayers?
What is the effect of the change of venue?

Tehran Bureau report:

http://tehranbureau.com/selected-headlines-17/" rel="nofollow">Eid ul-Fitr prayer at Mossalla canceled

After the cancellation of the Ihya ceremonies at the Imam Khomeini mausoleum, the Tehran municipality announced the cancellation of the Eid ul-Fitr prayer marking the end of Ramadan. It will not be held at the Mossalla prayer grounds this year.

Mohammad Eidian, the head of the Tehran municipality Eid prayer headquarters, said the cancellation of the mass prayer was due to restoration and construction work being carried out at the prayer grounds.

The Mosslla prayer ground has annually hosted 1.5 to 2.5 million people for the Eid ul-Fitr prayer over the past few years.

“The current condition at Mosslla prevents the presence of millions of people on Eid ul-Fitr.”

“This year the prayers will be held at the Ejran University prayer grounds.”

[Amy]

re. 0800 GMT

...the claims of 72 deaths in post-election violence are “questionable, given the fact that no detail on the identity of the victims has been present”.

The convenience of secret graves...

[Scott Lucas]

Amy,

The usual site for Tehran Friday prayers is near the University in the centre of Tehran, rather than at the Mossalla, but I am not sure if this is the case of last Friday of Ramadan/Qods Day (18 September). I wonder if the last line of the report should be "Tehran" rather than "Ejran".

Can anyone help?

S.

[FreeIran]

Mosalla is the usual place for end of ramazan qods prayers. Khamenei normally leads the prayers and gives sermons afaik.

[Amy]

re. 1015 GMT: “The trials will continue and we will do our best so that the rule of law is upheld and justice prevails.”

So is Deputy head of judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi speaking for Sadeq Larijani, the regime or the Pasdaran?

[Amy]

FreeIran
I was mistaken then-- I thought Hashemi was going to lead the prayers.

Is Qods day part of Eid ul-Fitr or are they the same?

[FreeIran]

Quds day: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Day_of_Quds

[Amy]

Are there 2 separate prayer events, a political one to commemorate Quds Day & a religious one for Eid ul-Fitr? The TB article cited in comment #7 said the Eid ul-Fitr prayers were moved, but here on EA I've only seen comments about Quds Day prayers... are the names used interchangeably?

[florence]

Pedestrian,

What are those "minimum achievable objectives" in your opinion?
Moussavi says there should be an electoral reform : what would it consist in? would it allow FREE candidates (I mean not people chosen by the regime who know much too well how not to go too far).
What is "the walk" suggested by Moussavi that could bring a positive answer to the people's claims? writing letters and waiting till they are granted permission to peacefully express their claims?
If "win" is not what Moussavi wants, what is it he wants then?

[Afshin]

@Pedestrian

There are two diifrent issues at hand, one is the dissatisfaction of the people the other the fight between the powers within the establishment, OLD vs THE NEW.

In their dispair people associated with Mousavi and the Green movement and indeed supported him (even if it was in name but in reality fighting for democracy and freedom). Still they were in incredible numbers in streets holding his picture, wearing his color, chanting his name, doing at his request, objecting his loss due to fraud (I agree that in most cases this was a case of My enemies enemy is my friend, but that does not change the fact that for what ever reason he was supported and in a way never seen before)

My view is that Mousavi's passive stance will cost him his position with the movement (This does not mean that the dissatisfaction of the people will go away but they will be looking elsewhere to find answer)

Please also note that a movement is not a movement if not being Lead ! People need a leader, someone to follow, a direction, a symbom that unites them, Mousavi fit the profiile and people answered (even if he was not as radical as they may have wanted him to be)

What would I expect him do u ask? as a bystander who is just looking at the situatiuon as one in the audiance, I have no direct expectations of him, but if he does not want to outplay his role, I expect him to LEAD.... he is to passive...

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[Amy]

Please forgive this post-- for time reasons I'm cobbling together some notes I made to myself some time back with a bit from Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech.

My point is:
Mousavi may not be the one to overthrow the system, but don't write him off. He is addressing something very important in developing a new government.

A couple of years ago I started wondering about why the US revolution worked out whereas the French & Russian revolutions didn't go so well. There's no simple answer, but here are thoughts I wrote down about it at the time, for what they are worth... I have a scientific background and am no historian. If these ideas are useful, it would be important to look at many other instances of revolution or transfer of power. Also keep in mind that I'm talking in generalizations

~~~

The French & Russian revolutions both got co-opted. I think ours in the US was different largely because the colonists inherited and internalized a system of government which was in place and functional many years before the revolution. The mechanics needed adjustment after the war ended, but the Americans didn't have to determine and create a system out of the ashes of an authoritarian regime. The existing structure made it hard for a dictator or oligarchy to seize power.

The revolutions in France & Russia welled up from the hearts of the people, but the next step wasn't so clear. Russia ended up with a system that functioned and felt much like the one they threw off. France went through chaotic waves, each of which swept away the rudimentary structure built by the one preceding it.

I should have included India along with the US as a country of people who experienced with self-government before the revolution. As an occupied country, the Indians were blocked from high office, but they had participated in a system they could work with after the Brits left. It was a rocky road, but. like the US, they didn't have to start from scratch in defining and building a functional government.

It didn't seem to be a matter of ideology. Decapitating the government isn't enough. It leaves a vacuum. The 'revolutionary' governments often resemble the government that was overthrown. Even though the people were oppressed, they don't know another way of life. So Leninist & Stalinist Russia resembled Czarist Russia, with it's secret police, internal exile & gulags. The People's Republic of China resembled the Chinese empire. Revolutionary Iran resembles Iran under the Shah. I'm not saying the new regimes were exactly like the pre-revolutionary governments-- just that certain systems already were in place & the citizens were used to living within those systems, having little else to compare them with.

The French seemed to know they had to find a way to break up the old system. They renamed the days of the week and the months of the year. They did everything they could to break up the institutions underpinning the society. But there was no game plan... they didn't have a structure to replace what they dismantled. Different factions tried to put something together, but each would get washed out by changes in public sentiment. By the time Napoleon came in, people were just longing for stability.

I'm oversimplifying in a major way & much more is involved in each case. I just think something has to be there to replace the system which is being rejected. Otherwise it's likely to live on in slightly modified form.

I don't know how it can be helped, but I think it's an important reason that revolutions or decapitations (like Iraq) don't necessarily lead to a stable government benefiting the people, Bush was wrong— his idea was elections = democracy… wrong. We forget that the US didn't end up where we are out of thin air. We practiced with training wheels on long before we took off on our own.

~~~~
~~~~
Above was written some time ago. Back to the present:

Before talking about Iran, let me add there's more to it than what I said above. (Doubtless) The US and India had other advantages such as a functioning economy and well-educated citizens. But your citizens also are well-educated and you have resources.

Like France & Russia, Iran had a revolution, but suddenly had to create a government out of the ashes. There were theoretical ideas of an Islamic nation, but there was no existing structure & no blueprint. The new govt ended up much like the one it replaced.

Obviously present-day Iran isn't in a colonial-type situation like America or India were. There's no acceptable pre-existing structure for a future government to move into. But you can take steps.

It's important to do everything possible to create a structure to move into when the time comes. I mean in the greatest possible detail. How can government work on the national level, in the district level & on the local level. What institutions and laws could prevent the system from falling back into the old structure.

Here is where is on the right track. He may not be the one to overthrow the government, but he has important ideas about what happens next. Listen to what he says here (from his speech)

Truly, what should be done? In answering this question, the first step is to know what we want so that this desire portrays the best and most of what we can want. If we err in finding an answer to this question, we have lost a great deal of this capital that has been obtained. There should be a great level of care taken in answering this question. The great force that our country has been able to gather has the ability to take the country to higher spiritual and material levels on one hand, or to plunge it deeply into a long, anarchistic decline. The results of our efforts greatly depend on our correct choice in this stage.

Contrary to what the state propaganda machines project, we are the ones that desire the return of trust and calm to society and we are the ones who abstain from any violent or extreme acts. We have very clear and reasonable demands. We want to preserve the Islamic Republic, we want to reinforce our national unity, and want to revive the ethical identity of the ruling system. A restoration of public trust is not possible without the acceptance of the right of the people to govern themselves, without obtaining their final approval of their ruling system, and without transparency in the affairs of the state. In the green movement that we have begun, we have no unusual or abrupt demands. What we want is to demand the lost rights of our nation.

Demand what rights? Firstly, the rights that the constitution has considered for the people, and our request for the full and complete execution of these rights. Indeed! There have been solutions proposed in the constitution to manage certain affairs which may one day not be the answer to the needs of the country and of the world. But the path to reforming [such quandaries] has been predicted in this same constitution. In our national covenant, the legitimacy of all the pillars of the ruling system is based on the trust and vote of the people. To a point where if you look closely, even a supervisory body like the Guardian Council is not far from the auspices of the people. Yes! In the constitution, the Guardian Council has been burdened with heavy responsibilities, such as overseeing the elections – [the Guardian Council is composed of] fallible humans who might fall into the trap of sin and wrongdoing and might be tempted by power. But in this same constitution, it clearly says that people are free to hold peaceful gatherings. If only this principle from our national covenant is enacted, be certain that no one in the ruling establishment will have the opportunity to misuse their power.

Our constitution is ripe with capacities that have not been met. Our officials sometimes act as if they are free to use the extra capacities of the constitution [to their advantage]. No! It will never be so. They are responsible for realizing these capacities, all of these capacities...

You need leaders for the immediate situation, but also you need to create a future. don't write him off.

[Amy]

Let me add to comment #18 that I'm not saying Mousavi is the right one for that role either, but he is thinking long & deep about something that will be very important when the time is right. It's hard to say how long it will take to get to that time. However long it takes, you can work on developing the new foundation in the meantime so you will have something to hold onto when you get there. Be ready so the new government won't get co-opted by opportunists.

Good to see you back, florence!

back to cleaning the fridge... argh!

[Amy]

They seem to be going after Karroubi & Hashemi at the same time... renewing attacks on Hashemi's schools & issuing a warrant for Ali Karroubi. If they actually arrest or harm him, it could blow up on them.

[kevina]

Arresting Hashemi, Karroubi, Mousavi, or Khatami would be a major gamble. The s*%%storm that would cause on the streets would be monumental. Would the Pasdaran and Sepah be united in crushing the revolt?

If they would be, then it might happen. I'm guessing Ahmadi and Khamenei are trying to figure it out themselves.

[Amy]

kevina
What you just said is probably why they are threatening Karroubi's son instead of Karroubi himself, but it still sounds like a bad idea. Do you think the people would stand for it?

Wow, it's just a day after Karroubi said there was no way the regime could stop him

[kevina]

The people don't "know" his son. Heck, I wasn't sure he had children (but I'm just an American watching this).

Arresting the leaders themselves, however...

[florence]

Hi Amy !

have resumed work for a few days so I'm only just catching up on the news and very interesting debate of the last few days.

what you say about revolutions in general is interesting but I'm afraid Mousavi's long and deep thinking might make him miss the right time! More seriously, I doubt Mousavi's determination to back the people's claims; Pedestrian says it's important to pinpoint the minimum achievable objectives that will gather a large enough base around the green movement but the problem is he always seems to be stating what needs to be achieved without ever taking the first practical step.

[florence]

Ahmadinejad's close supporters are weird people indeed !

http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2009/09/what-on-earth-is-he-on-about.html