Sunday
Oct182009
Iran: Khamenei, Bahari, Hajjarian, and the "Semi-Normal"
Sunday, October 18, 2009 at 10:34
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal
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Little did we know, when we titled yesterday's updates "Back to Semi-Normal", how appropriate the label would turn out.
The most prominent semi-normal was the apparent reappearance of the Supreme Leader after recent rumours about his poor health. We've followed yesterday's special updates with an analysis this morning of the political significance beyond the pictures of his meetings with Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade.
Then there was the semi-normal, which will dominate "Western" coverage today, of the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari on $300,000 bail from Evin Prison. Bahari had been held since June on allegations that he had passed sensitive information to "Western" agencies plotting velvet revolution in Iran; the authorities put him on show after the first Tehran trial in August to "confess".
If this is semi-normal for Bahari, who is not "free" but still awaits a formal judgement and sentencing, the event is even more semi-normal because it obscures a wider political move by the regime. In the post-election conflict, far more significant is the suspended five-year prison sentence handed down to Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist political leader who has been at the centre of the crisis since his arrest in June.
Hajjarian, disabled by an assassin's attack nine years ago but still one of the most powerful political theorists in Iran, became a symbol for the Green opposition; he was a far different symbol for the Government, who made his "confession" first amongst equals as they constructed their foreign-inspired attempt to overthrow the regime.
With Hajjarian's suspended sentence, the Government is trying to show a supposed willingness for conciliation while it draws a line under the crisis. EA's Mr Smith was wrong in his prediction --- that the Supreme Leader would give an amnesty to Hajjarian and other key reformists --- only by a few weeks. All is now well, the Government will claim, while being on guard to re-arrest Hajjarian, imposing the suspended sentence, if he or other reformists cause more trouble.
For, in this "semi-normal" political state, the regime is still detaining allies of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. At 4 a.m. yesterday Government forces raided the home of Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases, and arrested the activist.
No, for all the drama surrounding the Supreme Leader, for all the attention that will be given to Bahari (see how many non-Iranian media outlets even mention the Hajjarian suspended sentence), the "real" political stories of this week --- and the week to come --- are the sustained challenge by opposition leaders like Mehdi Karroubi and the still little-known negotiations over the National Unity Plan.
It is 17 days to the demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November).
NEW Iran: The Great Supreme Leader Health Mystery
Iran: The Supreme Leader Lives — The Picture (17 October)
The Latest from Iran (17 October): Back to Semi-Normal
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Little did we know, when we titled yesterday's updates "Back to Semi-Normal", how appropriate the label would turn out.The most prominent semi-normal was the apparent reappearance of the Supreme Leader after recent rumours about his poor health. We've followed yesterday's special updates with an analysis this morning of the political significance beyond the pictures of his meetings with Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade.
Then there was the semi-normal, which will dominate "Western" coverage today, of the release of Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari on $300,000 bail from Evin Prison. Bahari had been held since June on allegations that he had passed sensitive information to "Western" agencies plotting velvet revolution in Iran; the authorities put him on show after the first Tehran trial in August to "confess".
If this is semi-normal for Bahari, who is not "free" but still awaits a formal judgement and sentencing, the event is even more semi-normal because it obscures a wider political move by the regime. In the post-election conflict, far more significant is the suspended five-year prison sentence handed down to Saeed Hajjarian, the reformist political leader who has been at the centre of the crisis since his arrest in June.
Hajjarian, disabled by an assassin's attack nine years ago but still one of the most powerful political theorists in Iran, became a symbol for the Green opposition; he was a far different symbol for the Government, who made his "confession" first amongst equals as they constructed their foreign-inspired attempt to overthrow the regime.
With Hajjarian's suspended sentence, the Government is trying to show a supposed willingness for conciliation while it draws a line under the crisis. EA's Mr Smith was wrong in his prediction --- that the Supreme Leader would give an amnesty to Hajjarian and other key reformists --- only by a few weeks. All is now well, the Government will claim, while being on guard to re-arrest Hajjarian, imposing the suspended sentence, if he or other reformists cause more trouble.
For, in this "semi-normal" political state, the regime is still detaining allies of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. At 4 a.m. yesterday Government forces raided the home of Mohammad Reza Mogheyseh, the head of the Karroubi-Mousavi special committee investigating prisoner abuse cases, and arrested the activist.
No, for all the drama surrounding the Supreme Leader, for all the attention that will be given to Bahari (see how many non-Iranian media outlets even mention the Hajjarian suspended sentence), the "real" political stories of this week --- and the week to come --- are the sustained challenge by opposition leaders like Mehdi Karroubi and the still little-known negotiations over the National Unity Plan.
It is 17 days to the demonstrations of 13 Aban (4 November).
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