The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation
Tuesday, December 1, 2009 at 9:32 
2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.
The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....
Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.
2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."
This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."
2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."
More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."
Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?
1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.
Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.
1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.
1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.
1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.
1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.
1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:
As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.
That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.
Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).
Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?
1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.
The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".
1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")
Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."
0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".
0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?
0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.
Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:
- Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University
- Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University
- Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University
- Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University
- Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.
There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.
16 Azar, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abolhassan Banisadr, Ali Larijani, Ali Reza Zakani, Associated Press, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, BBC, CNN, China, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Hashemi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mr Smith, Ramin Mehmanparast, Ramin Pourandarjan, Reuters, Russia in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (40)
[...] via enduring america Veröffentlicht in News. Schlagworte: Iran, Journalismus, Press TV, Propaganda, Proteste. Kommentar schreiben » [...]
Hahaha!
The invisible enrichment plants! :) What really amuses me is how much it scared some people. Come on folks...
Wait a minute, Josh - I think they're right here!:
http://www.roozonline.com/persian/cartoon/cartoon-item/article/2009/november/30//10-9.html
'The Hindu' has another interesting article on the enriched uranium swap negotiations, "Barack Obama’s myopic Iran policy".
http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article56979.ece?homepage=true
The author claims that swapping inside Iran or sending the LEU abroad makes no difference to the essence of the deal:
"In an interview to The Hindu earlier this month, Foreign Minister Manochechr Mottaki said the swap should take place on Iranian territory. This condition would not alter the essential structure of the deal. At a certain date, when French fabrication of the TRR fuel starts, the IAEA could take into its custody an equivalent amount of Iranian LEU and hold it, in escrow, inside Iran. When the TRR fuel is ready, the Iranian LEU can be loaded onto a plane, which would take off once the French fuel lands inside Iran. At the end of the day, the outcome for the U.S. from a simultaneous swap would be the same as from a sequential swap: Iranian LEU stocks would have been depleted."
Is he right? If he is, might the Obama admin's insistence that the original proposal cannot be modified actually mean they're *not* as eager for a deal as some of us have been reading into the situation, myself included?
Speaking national unity: AN did not appear to today's celebration of the Majlis:
http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=5802
Only 30 of 199 invitees attended this celebration, which has a wonderful name: "Gratitude for Unity"
To me the threat to build "10 enrichment plants" was scary not because I thought such a thing could happen, but because this Regime actually said such a thing. If they were expecting to be believed, they must be so far out of touch with reality that it is truly frightening. If they knew no one would believe them, what the heck was the point of saying it? Either way it shows a disconnect with reality that is very disturbing.
@Catherine I think the only problem with that theory is that the West would have to accept that any IAEA escrow location would be safe inside Iran, given that this Regime has been willing to simply override its own constitution whenever convenient to the whims of the Supreme Leader. My understanding is that Khamenei could simply order the LEU seized at any time, and he would be obeyed in that if it was within the physical power of the Revolutionary Guards to do so, no matter what treaties or deals had been signed.
Rev Magdalen
I agree with your thinking - ever since the very early days of the Iranian Revolution, when Iranian people took US Embassy staff as prisoners, Iran can not be trusted to abide by any International conventions or agreements. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, this kind of action was not done. As a self-imposed pariah State, the Iranian Regime is paranoid - and how can anybody have meaningful relations with people suffering from paranoia.
Barry
Yes, the "western" media definitely gets distracted easily, and overly looks for soundbites. But in the media's defense, IMHO the Iranian "government" (to the extent it can be called something so cohesive and legitimate) hasn't sent anything close to a clear or synchronized message in a month. The message is completely different depending on the time, the person speaking, the regime's current feelings of insecurity, and perhaps what the temperature is outside. :) So much confusion, and so many mixed or contradictory messages.
So while the Western media is to blame for only picking up on certain messages and failing to read others, they aren't really to blame for the fact that the messages they are picking up on are being generated in the first place.
Kevin
RE: 0710 GMT Iran contest of the day
"Fallen Reign"
1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story.
Translation. IRGC takes up new business venture; Piracy in Persian Gulf. It has proven to be a lucrative business. Just ask Somali Pirates in and around Gulf of Aden
Russia should not forget what Muslims did to the mighty Soviet Union in Afghanistan just a few years ago.
Peyke Iran reports Tehran Metro system is on strike. Passengers are in various stations and cannot get to their destinations and some are chanting against government. Human rights activists are urging people to take advantage of this opportunity and get to their nearest metro station and join other protesters. http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=10133
Farda News reports 5 British sailors will be released shortly. I cannot vouch for the credibility of the news. http://www.fardanews.com/fa/pages/?cid=97124
Samuel, haven't you seen all of the video, or should I get it for you? The Iranian people are mad at Russia for having supported Ahmadinejad and this imbecile Khamenei. Your own people are revolting against you and the last of your allies are turning on you. Nobody is supporting you anymore Samuel, quit this job now while you still have the chance to do so. Otherwise when this coup fails you will likely face charges from the new FREE Iranian government.
In my opinion the fight between Larijani and AN's puppets over Rafsanjani is the biggest news of the day. It is a major sign that the coup has lost what discipline it had and is increasingly splitting.
The clear public split with Russia is a major sign as well. Obama's relative moderation regarding Iran may be forcing AN into increasingly untenable positions in order to maintain the justification of conflict with the west. Even Putin has lost his patience with AN, and the fact that the split has become so open and public indicates to me that Putin thinks the coup is unraveling.
Adam,
Yes I'm sure you know exactly who the "Iranian People" are mad at.
If you mean the pathetic Greens yes of course they are always looking at outsiders for help whether it is Master Obama or the more AN supporting Russians. That is always a clear sign of desperation when you know that only outside intervention can help your cause.
If they could the greenies would be pleading for an invasion from Mars to overthrow the Revolution.
Actually it was you who said that the Iranian people are mad at Russia, I simply added that the reason why the Iranian people are mad at Russia is because they initially supported AN's coup. Now that Russian intelligence sees that the coup is splitting and failing, they are switching sides as expected.
Further, don't blame the Greens for the fall of the Islamic Revolution. It is Khamenei and AN who have overthrown the revolution by making Iran into a secular fascist dictatorship. The "Islamic Revolution" failed as soon as the regime decided to sideline even the most stalwart of the revolutionary clerics (Rafsanjani) and commit violence upon Islamic clerics who speak independently (Karroubi). Montazeri and Sanei are being repressed by the regime also and are now in clear opposition to the lie that this dictatorship is Islamic.
Adam,
The point of what I wrote was that Russia should be careful about taking the West's side against Iran. Russia has a very large, and growing Muslim population and they know very well from Afghanistan what devout Muslims are capable of. They brought the mighty Soviet Union to its knees in 9 years. It had absolutely nothing to do with some idiotic green slogans against Russia.
Samuel
The "mighty" Soviet Union brought itself to it's own knees. That is because, over a long time of repressing it's own people and attempting unsuccessfully to export it's controlling ideology to other places, it could no longer sustain the myth any longer - and it's people could no longer accept the lies and pain that it propagated.
An almost identical situation to that in Iran today.
Barry
Barry,
Iran as the Soviet Union does not work at all. Communism was an exhausted ideology by the 1980's; Islam (which is of course much much more than an "ideology" but for the sake of argument let's pretend that it is) is today ascendant. Look at the poor Swiss they are shaking in total fear of minarets!!! Look at the silly French and their campaign to ban the hijab.
In any event forget about Iran for a second and let's look at the general point about regime stability. Even exhausted ideologies like communism can maintain themselves in power as long as you don't have a debacle like the Afghanistan war. What is tolerated and tolerable in peace time, corruption, inmorality, neglect becomes intolerable when soldiers are returning from the front in boxes.
Perhaps the classic example from the 20th century was Czarist Russia. The Czar, despot that he was, was nevertheless adored by much of Russia's population. The Royal Court dominated by the the crazy antics of one of histories most bizarre characters, Rasputin, was tolerated by elites as well as the common man. Lenin, Trotsky and the rest despite their very real talents were destined like so many other revolutionaries to lives of exile.
The spark that brought the whole house down was of course the First World War. All of the overlooked flaws of the Czarist regime came into sharp focus as Russian soldiers on the eastern front died by the thousands without proper food, proper clothing, poor equipment and the rest. Military defeat is the fertilizer of radical regime change.
Iran wisely has adopted an essentially defensive military posture relying on tactics of Assymetrical warfare to contain and defeat an invading force. Despite all the nonsensical comparisons of Iran to "fascism" the fact is that Iran's military strategy is not at all expansionist or offensive which is one of the dominant characteristics of fascist regimes.
Samuel
In france it's not hijab but burka that is loathed ; already as an iranian woman , I am not confortable with hijab ( of arab people ) , and you could imagine , how I am afraid of burka ; you look like a " MONSTER" !!
Samuel
I am not sure in what way you think that Islam is "ascendent". Perhaps it is because MANY people of Islamic faith now live in Western countries. This is a fact - but why are they living in western countries?. It is because they want to - and why do they want to? - because their own cultures, their own countries of birth have failed them. If Islamic cultures, countries - and indeed Islam itself - were in some way "ascendent", then the peoples of those cultures and countries would not seek political and economic refuge in the west in their millions.
Barry
I do live in Iran and I can tell you that Islam in Iran is having a sharp falling tendency.
I had never experienced before, people swearing to top Muslim or holly figures in public. This is happening now in public.
The regime in Iran is in total panic, not only because of amazing numbers of Greens who have taken away peace and confidence from the Cupe-Regime, but also due to distracting friction within the regime. This government was not not even able to mange a business exhibition (Elecomp 2009) last week. There were battles and fights between fractions within the government, leading to closure of the exhibition right at the Opening ceremony. Just imagine whats happening on more serious matters.
The nuclear issue is also no exception. The policy of Iran is a sign of panic.
We are going to overthrow this regime, I promise this will happen and I strongly recommend you American, Russian, Chinese and ..... take this fact into your consideration. You better be with the PROGRESSIVE powers of history.
@ Rev Magdalen + Barry (posts 7+8)
Yeah, I think you're right. Thanks for responding