Sunday
Dec132009
Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda - Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 14:08 
UPDATE 1355 GMT: We've got the latest developments in our LiveBlog. Current assessment? Based on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning, we think the Green movement(s) are on a "final warning". That would mean no immediate arrests of opposition leaders, but if there is protest during Moharram....LATEST POST (14 December) Iran: "Arrests" and the Regime's Sword of Damocles
UPDATE 0800 GMT: Just after posting this, I noticed the English summary of the blog of the academic and journalist Alireza Nourizadeh, who lives outside Iran but claims good sources inside the country. He says that there was a three-hour meeting on Saturday night between the top commanders of security forces and the military, the Minister of Intelligence, and the Supreme Leader and his son Mojtaba. (Note: no President Ahmadinejad)
Nourizadeh asserts, "During the meeting the majority of participants requested the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Seyed Mohamad Khatami and the placing of Hashemi Rafsanjani under surveillance. Khamenei, however, postponed his final decision to tomorrow.
Nevertheless, according to a very reliable source it is very probable that the coup leaders take series of important measures including arrest of a number of opposition figures tonight."
0730 GMT: We awake to sift through the chatter and rumours of more Government action against the reformists and Green Wave(s). Sparked by an entry in Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh and then accelerated by the repetition of the warning by other reformists websites such as Norooz and Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer, the concern grew that Mousavi might be arrested.
Here is where we are this morning:
1. THE FAILURE OF THE KHOMEINI "ON FIRE" CAMPAIGN: Of course, there are a number of reasons why the regime might take the dramatic and dangerous step of detaining the most prominent Green leaders.However, the immediate catalyst seems to come from a Government stumble: the clumsy propaganda campaign using the alleged burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's photograph by protesters.
It is secondary whether or not the video shown on 16 Azar by State media, claiming to be of a man urged on by a crowd to deface and then set on fire images of the current Supreme Leader and Khomeini, is genuine. What matter is whether people believe it is genuine. And it appears that, given the increasing shrillness of the Government campaign, that the regime has failed to make the allegation stick.
And there has been a negative effect undermining the authority of those in charge. The reformist response --- announcing that Khomeini was not burned but saying nothing about Ayatollah Khamenei --- speaks loudly in its omission: we are not protesting the Imam's idea of the Republic but the current state of that Republic and, in particular, the man occupying the post of Supreme Leader.
2. RAISING THE STAKES: So the regime was unable to turn 16 Azar, damaging in its display of persistent protest despite all the Government restrictions, into an example of the opposition's dastardly effort to destroy the Republic. What next?
Simply put, keep banging away. So on Saturday Ahmad Khatami, who has been the point man for hard-line declarations (remember the death penalty for protesters announcement in his Friday Prayer early in the crisis?), indicated that there must be punishment of those responsible for the desecration both of Khomeini's image and the regime's authority. That message in turn was trumpeted by outlets such as IRNA and Fars News.
3. FROM PROPAGANDA TO REALITY? Another warning has thus been put out by the regime.
There is a practical dimension to the threat. The Government's strategy in the run-up to the 16 Azar protests focused on the detention of student leaders, but this was not enough to stop the tide of demonstration. Even if the protests were smaller than on previous occasions, their concentration on campuses at the same time as they spread throughout the country galvanised attention --- note the swing in international media from declaring the Green Wave over to announcing its resurgence. (Is that duplicated amongst those "in the know" inside Iran?)
So if it's not enough to take out the student leaders, what can you do, especially with the important religious occasion of Mosharram around the corner? You go up the chain and challenge the Big Guys.
And don't underestimate the effect of groups of individuals simply deciding to force the issue. On the day after 16 Azar, Mousavi's offices were surrounded by about 40 plainclothes personnel, sparking a confrontation with the opposition leader. Both sides backed away --- Mousavi's security taking him back into his offices, the plainclothesmen dispersing --- but the showdown could have escalated.
The Government has threatened before to detain opposition leaders. And it has arrested high-profile Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi advisors. However, it has not necessarily been able to hold those advisors, such as Alireza Beheshti. (Whether it has been able to limit their role in the movement is an important and, for us, unanswered questioned).
For now, therefore, the rumours of the ultimate arrest of Mousavi appear to be a combination of regime frustration, a waving of the Sword of Damocles over the Green Movement, and the opposition's own nervousness.
None of which gives answers. That is, beyond this important lesson, six months and two days after the Presidential election....
This isn't over.
Reader Comments (54)
Thanks so much for the hard work Scott. I'm stuck in a seminar all weekend long with almost no internet access, and this was extremely helpful.
Arresting Mousavi before moharram will give him martyr status, that will be a dumb move, but I hope they do it.
My first impression was that the Mousavi camp issued their alarm as a response in kind to to the doctored footage of burning posters of Khomeni shown on State TV - both sides engaging in alarm/outrage tactics to fire up their own supporters and send mutual shots over each others' bows. Asymmetric soft warfare. But I haven't yet read all the latest rumours/reports, so I might be taking this with a bit too much salt ....
Six months after the election, Mousavi is now more of a symbol than a leader of the green movement. Arresting him would be a lose/lose situation for the regime : they would make Mousavi a martyr, without affecting the movement's ability to stage mass protests. Perfect recipe for more unrest in the streets and more loss of legitimacy for Khamenei & co
Catherine, I very much like your take. We have a saying in Persian that translates to "catching fish out of muddied waters". This is, more than anything else, a fear mongering campaign on the eve of Moharram. To make situations seem "extraordinary", the security forces of the regime count on marginalizing the student radicals, while keeping the ordinary people at home. If you have noticed in many of protest videos, there are large numbers of "spectators" who are not chanting. Yes we are all glued to pictures of thousands of students protesting. But, did you know that Amir-Kabir university alone has close to 12000 students (at least this is how it was when I studied there at the end of the war.); and Tehran U must have at least 4 times more (as it offers over 110 undergraduate degrees in 40 faculties).
What the non-persian readers of these reports may also not know is that the Iranian middle class has been silently protesting to much of the atrocities of the regime in the past 30 years; but has also learned to live with it and make the best out of it for themselves. Iran is not a paralyzed country; there are no massive strikes, country's transportation, telecommunication, medical and research institutions, schools and agriculture are operating more or less normally. People who have a life are going about it, yes deep down hoping for a change but not mustering the kind of sacrifice a handful of students and journalists are making. Many really want peace and tranquility; as they are accustomed to IRI corruption.
Naj
What do you want to say !! Iranian people have to accept what the regime has done and not to react ???
There is always a begining in each uprising, and as you see we are almost in the end of it before the victory !!
Fortunately, there are people who have not your mind and do what they have to do to reach their purposes, which are freedom and democracy !! iranian people have proved that they are not the "sheeps" as it was expected by your regime and don't worry , you will enjoy what they are sowing !!
My god, how people ( like you ) could say this kind of atrocities !!
Look better at the footages, people shooting and taping the demonstrations are among quiet people around !!
And I think they want no longer to be accustomed to this kind of life and if you are with them, make a positif propaganda !!
ange paris and Naj,
Ange please go to Naj's site. To link to his site just click on his name in any of his posts. You will find he is very much a Green supporter but with a different take. In many of his articles he makes very good points and they should be considered. Like any movement people will always clash over "how to get it done." What is important is to not let these differences hinder the overall objective but instead use them constructively to find the best course for success. Just remember Naj difers on approach, as many due, but like the majority of the movement he wants freedom and democracy juast as you do.
Naj--I owe you several "wedgies" I wanted to go to bed earlier and well now it is 8 am here in Chicago and I have been up all night reading your damn site!!! If we ever meet you better run because the wedgie have in mind entails you hanging by hook with no way to get off!!! :) Keep up the great work I really enjoyed reading through your site.
Thx
Bill
Mar Bar Dictator!
"People who have a life are going about it, yes deep down hoping for a change but not mustering the kind of sacrifice a handful of students and journalists are making. Many really want peace and tranquility; as they are accustomed to IRI corruption."
Naj
Are you with the movement or you are also an agent of this murderous repressive regime? How dare you say its only a handful of students and journalists who are making sacrifices for this movement. Are you deaf and blind or you are just paranoid?
How can you live in peace and tranquility if your government is corrupt and controls your everyday life? How can you live in peace if you live your life in fear? no freedom? How can you live in tranquility if your government has no respect for human rights. If you and few other people are accustomed to this kind of life, millions of others are not. Those who joined the protest are the ones who already overcome their fears and they are in hundreds of thousands. How much more if those still live in fear will realize that they should fight for their freedom and democracy and for the sake of their childrens future???
It looks like the regime's laughable attempt to make it look like the people are turning against the opposition by having paid basijis "protest" on university campuses has brought out thousands of students on every major university in Iran for a day of protests that nobody had planned or expected. Disaster for the regime!
New video of protests at Beheshti University http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_VINjQAbhs
Bill Davit
I don't want to read the site of somebody who has this negatif approch of iranian people.
Have a good dream Bill
Bill,
Thank you! I am actually a woman! :)
This is in fact the first time I have come on Enduring America, and judging from the comments and attacks my initial doubts about this site are slowly getting confirmed; there seem to be plenty of neo-conish cheer leaders hanging around here.
You're welcome on Neo-Resistance anytime.
Best regards
Naj
This attitude of calling anyone who disagrees with you a pro-regime stooge is harmful to debate. I've been on Naj's blog many times throughout this six months and he's put out some great stuff.
Er.. she's put out some great stuff.
It is a shame to see Green supporters squabbling amongst themselves - but I guess this will always happen as we are human - and human beings are complex. In this case, there are many different shades of green - but all green nevertheless.
I am certain that Samuel just loves to see you all display your differences between one another - sometimes, in my view, quite vitriolically.
Realism and being objectively honest is not necessarily pessism. Unbridled naive optimism is not necessarily positive.
Barry
"Realism and being objectively honest is not necessarily pessism. Unbridled naive optimism is not necessarily positive."
Agreed.
Naj,
It's a pleasure to have you here (especially as I am an admirer of Neo-Resistance) --- the discussion can be quite spirited but I hope it contributes in the end to exchange of views that lead to progress. As for the news coverage and analysis, do let me know if any of it seems "neo-conish". It certainly is not my intention to take that line.
S.
Barry, excellent point!
Naj and Pedestrian offer valuable insights and offer much needed perspective during our collective flights of fancy. It's beneficial to have people like that to re-tether us to reality.
However, I do find their remarks to be informed by a deep ambivalence toward radical change in the structure of the Islamic Republic. I don't know these individuals, so I can't offer anything beyond that. But I can see how it can irritate those who have a clear and categorical aversion to the Islamic Republic.
Dear Bozorg,
Please let me speak for myself and let Ped do the same.
Why am I ambivalent about a RADICAL change in the structure? Because I think the radical changes in the structure should not and cannot happen in the form of earthquakes; because i believe in the past 30 years Iran has been able to set several valuable infrastructures (yes most of them actually are realized out of blue-prints of Pahlavi's plans for golden gates of civilization) that deserve saving. I think the rdical change has happened in the psych of the society. Iran today has a far better grasp of democracy from a very individual perspective. I believe what is happening now is another learning stage. One may ask, why have we been failing this exam for "radical change" for close to 200 years? And this is the question I answer for myself by saying that "because we have gone too fast and too far"! Led by a small number of world-savvy elites, the iranian movements for support have been fundamentally detached from the reality that the majority of Iranians have been living through its history.
Have there been foreign interests derailing Iran? Yes. How? By investing on the common denominator of populism.
Forgive my cynicism. I am not very old myself; but I think this green movement is maturing still. It needs to spread, needs to multiply itself, needs to turn into an element of courage for ALL. Right now, there are plenty of people in Iran who are simply afraid; who are keeping silent; who are not willing to have their businesses, their jobs, their schools lost to the radicalism of this passionate youth. And unless we hear the voices of all those who are not shouting, we will not radically change anything.
====
Scott, I apologize for taking so much space here. I just feel certain issues are addressed to me and I am trying to accommodate a response. I care for my country; I feel it is vulnerable; consider me as a worrying mother whose life is shattered by the 1979 revolution once; and doesn't want that miserable affair repeat itself for her children ...
correction:
"because we have gone too fast and too far”! Led by a small number of world-savvy elites, the iranian movements for radical reform have been fundamentally detached from the reality that the majority of Iranians have been living through Iran's history."
Naj,
Thank you for your response.
I think your self-description as a "worrying mother" is quite telling, and explains your reticence towards fundamental change.
But at what point does maternal concern retard the growth and maturity of a child?
You're right to situate current events within Iran's 200 year struggle for a civil society. But I think your guarded political gradualism is informed less by acute analysis than psychological trauma, as is the case with many who fear fundamental change. And that's perfectly understandable, given the consequences of '79.
And I agree with you, too many Iranians are either apathetic or simply looking out for their own interests, content to adapt to the maze of the IRI in their everyday lives and eke out a relatively decent life. But who can blame them. After all, putting food on the table is more urgent than a just and civil society.
But should it be? That's a question that all Iranians need to answer for themselves.
Also, I strongly object to characterizing the demands of the students as "radical."
Although the goals of the Green movement are far more nebulous and fluid than some would like to admit, I don't think we should label demands for a civil society and the rule of law - the movement's minimal demands - as radical.
Naj,
No need to apologise --- I think this is proving a very productive discussion.
S.
"AMBIVALENCE - is a state of having simultaneous, conflicting feelings toward a person or thing."
The older and wiser I get , the more ambivalent I get - about just about everything. The flush of youth - when I was sure that I was absolutely right about everything, thought I knew everything and everything came only in full black or white - has passed me by.
There is nothing necessarily wrong with ambivalence - and it can be a good thing, if it leads to good sound decisions - rather than when it leads to procrastination and inaction.
Slowly slowly - catchee monkey!!!
Barry
Dear Naj
I am also against the radical change and always have said we have to go step by step; everybody here has heard it in my comments; I am neither radical nor extremist but a democrat who loves her people; when I read your comment in the latest from iran dec 13, I thought I hadn't understood,( english is not my first foreign language ); I saw again the same thing in this part of the comments; I am sorry but I don't accept ( and this is my point of view) when you say :
" yes deep down hoping for a change but not mustering the kind of sacrifice a handful of students and journalists are making. Many really want peace and tranquility; as they are accustomed to IRI corruption ".
I couldn't accept that you compare the huge move of our people ( millions in the streets ) to a handful of students and journalists, or this digust of the merciless regime to " they are accustomed to IRI corruption ". They have shown that they are not the sheep and enough is enough
I am sorry if I have hurt you or other readers , I have only expressed my disagreement with your opinion and I think I have this "right".
I don't even know the meaning of " neo conish" but I reassure you, I am not !!