Wednesday
Jan132010
Iran: Letter from Tehran "The Regime is Over"
Wednesday, January 13, 2010 at 6:00 
An EA reader has passed us this letter from a friend in Tehran, received yesterday. We post it as it is written, with no editing:Sorry for taking so long to write to you, I’ve been lying low - I wasn’t really sure whether it was safe for me to write or not, and I just wanted to be careful.
Do you remember Khatami being attacked during Moharram [the assault in Jamaran on Tasua, 26 December --- see video]? We happened to be visiting some friends who live near there and you’ll never believe it but we virtually had a ringside view!
Things are definitely changing here, remember I told you about the last demonstration I had seen in October, and the brutality of the basij etc. Well this time it almost seemed as if some of the attackers really didn’t want to be there! It seems that some of them are getting disillusioned with it all.
The regime is over - it’s just a matter of time! They really can’t last much longer.
Even in the time since I moved back here last year I can sense the change. The hardliners are getting quieter by the day --- indeed I am increasingly hearing them not just criticizing the regime, but actually sympathizing with the movement. They’ve gone from supporting the regime, to silence, to criticism, to support for the opposition in a few short months. Amazingly we are now seeing some of the very religious people beginning to turn away from the Supreme Leader, and even blame him for the younger generation turning away from Islam.
As I told you before families are divided, and on occasion I see people who would have traditionally been much more conservative and even pro-regime, now criticizing the regime and as I say even the SL! This was unheard of even a few months ago.
I get the sense that even among the conservatives they are fighting among themselves! The feeling is that once the economy collapses it will definitely be the end of the regime, and the word on the street is that that is not far away. Every other factor for regime change is in place, and it seems that the opposition’s support grows every day.
tagged Iran, Iran Elections, Mohammad Khatami, Moharram, Tasua in Middle East & Iran
Iran, Iran Elections, Mohammad Khatami, Moharram, Tasua in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (37)
"The feeling is that once the economy collapses it will definitely be the end of the regime, and the word on the street is that that is not far away."
Somebody should show this letter to Obama and Clinton
Barry
Barry,
having lived through th '79 revolution, I must argue, with much regret, that the regime isn't about to collapse economically. For that we'd need strikes that bring everything to a stand still, otherwise no dice. Just see what's been going on in Zimbabwe. Conversely, I think that the months (or perhaps days) of AN are counted.
I'm willing to bet that this person was not really from Tehran.
The regime is far from over. It is here to stay and it will kill many in the process.
Pic
I wonder how far away strikes actually are? The word we're getting is that inflation is rampant, people are grumbling about the cost of basic necessities, (I quote from people who have traveled back into Iran) and there seems to many reports of many different people not being paid. (I have no proof of the latter - only what I read here, twitter etc)
I'm not sure we can compare it to Zimbabwe - simply because Zimbabwe have not had to be paying thugs for over 7 full months to keep protests down. There has been flashes in Zimbabwe - but not the constant assault that we have seen in Iran. For 30 years up until June 12th the Iranian gvt had successfully put down any protest very quickly, they are no longer able to do that. Their legitimacy was never questioned amongst their own supporters - it is now.
What do the regime do? Do they keep on paying the Basij the ridiculous rates they promised them back in June - that in itself will cripple them - especially as protests spread beyond the 5-6 big cities, or do they pay them less and risk losing their support? (I read somewhere of them not being paid at all . . .)
I know obviously this is just one person's experience and s/he doesn't speak for the whole country, nor the whole city, but if we put this with the article that we read last week about more people in the heartlands beginning to get involved, then we can definitely see there is a change in attitude and that even the so called 63% is falling - and that in itself might be the precursor to strikes!
Anthony,
I can verify, although I cannot reveal sources, that the author is from Tehran.
S.
The bottom line - is that , when a dam bursts, nobody can really predict where the water will flow. We, as humans, like to think that we can "understand" and "control" these forces - but we can't.
Whether Iran is comparable to Zimbabwe or not, whether sanctions (real ones) change the course of history in Iran or not - we will find out when we read the history books some years on.
In the meantime, if the Iranian economy becomes weak, the Regime weakens!
Who then wishes to see the Iranian economy strengthen??
Barry
Anthony,
Why don't you tune in to radio programs where callers from Iran call? I hear many callers saying the same as the author of this letter.
Roe Lassie,
Prices for some daily goods like rice, tea and detergents went up 30 % already in 2008, as the author Cheheltan reported from Tehran: http://www.perlentaucher.de/feuilletons/2008-06-18.html#a20870
And bread prices were augmented up to 400 % in the end of that year: http://www.akhbar-rooz.com/news.jsp?essayId=18318
On the other hand Iranian companies' output continues to hover around 50 % due to mismanagement, corruption and lack of investments, leading to rising unemployment: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12079
Enterprises are also blocked by the IRGC mafia, which controls about 60 % of Iran's economy, and strikes for unpaid wages have become ordinary throughout the country. I guess the planned elimination of subsidies will further aggravate this economic misery.
and are still rising.
This issue of strikes is constantly brought up, as it was what happened in the 79 revolution. Strikes took between October to November of 1978 and by Feb 79 the regime was done. In fact the shah left in Jan 79.
By the same calculation then 10 months after the start of the unrest strikes started. Even if we go on the same trajectory that would mean April 2010 for strikes to begin however it is now only January. Secondly this time the regime is taking far greater action to avoid strikes and a larger portion of industry is in the hands of regime and regime cronies so the 10 month time window is not likely. However rest assured that the greens are making major inroads to making this happen.
Finally the people in 79 had plenty of money in their pockets and bank accounts and strikes were possible cause it was affordable by the masses. Today many people live hand to mouth and week by week, strikes are going to be harder for the population, but rest assured they will go on strike when they have to.
in general we need not have the same things happen this time as last time. Ultimately the last regime (79 regime) was dead when it lost the support of the masses. The event on the horizon that culminated in their failure was the strikes. This regime will also face an event on its horizon that will lead to its collapse, and it need not be strikes.
I personally think this regime will face some major violent infighting such as internal assassinations or mass murder of people that will lead to its failing. Strikes however are also likely as we can not stike anything off the list in today's Iran.
Arshama,
Thanks for the links - it's good to have links to back up the anectodal stories that we here.
Whereismyvote
You are right, we all - self included - need to stop comparing this to '79. This is not '79 and it will go forward in its own way. It just appears to me that everything is coming together to make it impossible for the regime to continue.
Roe Lassie: Things in Zimbabwe are no better than in Iran. Mugabe's been paying thugs for years now to terrorize the population and not having oil revenues, he's just printed money causing hyper inflation:
Zimbabwe Mid-November 2008 (latest measurable) monthly inflation: 79,600,000,000% (98.0% daily). Source: Steve Hanke, Cato Institute.
I agree with Whereismyvote that this time the trigger might well be some other event, but I'm saying that it's unlikely that it would mainly be the economy (while that would still contribute to the level of unrest). I also think that if we follow the dotted lines, the discussion has shifted withing the fundamentalist ranks (e.g. Ali Motahari) and that they no longer consider AN as unmovable. The question is whether that would now be enough to split the opposition with the civil rights "loyal" faction (Moussavi, Khatami, etc.) declaring satisfaction and abandoning the grass-roots democratic political faction. Thoughts anyone?
Respect to all who in Iran are getting the word out about the situation there I talked to my friend who was in the Ashura protest and it sent shivers up my spine. Protest suppression is a thousand time violent than what the news from twitter and ER. Within a span of 10 minutes they were charged by riot police and basij who were armed ith guns and knives and who didn't look like Iranians, and he saw a man with half his face cut off by a carving knife; had a bullet come an inch from his face, seen several men and women being beaten by 5 or 6 basij at the same time. I didn't even feel this chill on my skin when I was in the first Gulf war rolling over Iraqi defense lines. All my heart to these folks and I believe that the resolve to change their country is very high and they will succeed. The unraveling of this regime will begin soon and the show ball effect soon after. The knee factor will be the economy and crippling sanctions on the industries that the Revolutionary Guard controls. The people know who's fault it is when it comes to the economy, and the poverty that prevails in their country.
Whereismyvote
"This regime will also face an event on its horizon that will lead to its collapse, and it need not be strikes."
I think you are correct. I do not know what the event will be, but I am sure that it will be precipitated by something that the Regime itself does. There are so many players involved - that things happening within the Regime do seem chaotic already. They will do something really stupid.
"Tis with Sharpers as ‘tis with Pikes, they prey upon their own kind;
and ‘tis a pleasant Scene enough, when Thieves fall out among themselves"
Barry
Barry-
I agree with you. Unfortunatedly Trita Parsi and NIAC have the White House ear and constantly undermine all Iranian sanction plans. Just yesterday, Parsi bragged about how he knew that smart sanctions were best plan, ones tageted to IR, not hurting citizens. Then he proceeded to set the groundwork for explaing how impossible that will be to achieve. Holding out the stick, then taking it away. Unfortunatedly, Parsi, NIAC and ex NIAC affiliates like John Limbert are holding the White House and most US mass media in a tight little headlock. Wish they would listen to the majority of Iranian-Americans, who want the regime to fall. Not NIAC who hates sanctions, wants to create dialogue with regime and only recently showed some concern about human right's abuses.
Apk
APK, please dont bad mouth NIAC because you are anti Obama or dont like Trita, stick to facts.
The idea of Mullah sanction vs Iran sanction has been around since first GB but was ignored by Republicans and then Democrats and then GWB administration. Unfortunately the Mullahs for the past 30 years have learned how to hide the stolen money and it is very difficult to sanctions those. All the banks holding Mullahs money are in Russia, China, South Africa and England and they amount to 100s of billions of dollars. You need to ask previous administration why they ignored the Mullah sanctions for 8 years. You need to ask previous administration why when Iran (khatami time) tried to approach US in presidential level was ignored rejected and ridiculed.
TT
FYI- I campaigned extensively for Obama and continue to strongly support him, so don't start making things up to attack me. Please reread my comment and show me where it mentions or even suggests any dislike for Obama.
As far as sanctions, I have always promoted smart sanctions. There will be a price to pay, inadvertently, for Iranian citizens. In the real world, one must sometimes make tough choices. I deplore the idea of military attacks as much as I abhor human rights abuses. The most tangible option remains ongoing world support for the opposition and wise sanctions. Economically speaking, there still is a lot of money in Iran. Create some financial chaos and s________ will hit the fan. It will hurt, I admit, but havent come across any better option. Plus, if you are in touch with the larger American diaspora they are shouting for smart sanctions. They believe it will cripple the IR and the brave Iranian citizens will do the clean up work.
As for Trita, he's just trying to be famous and make some money- Iran's a hot topic these days and he's riding the wave. Have to admit, I'd rather see him in a Perez Hilton blog or on TMZ.
Apk
[...] for regime change is in place, and it seems that the opposition’s support grows every day. Iran: Letter from Tehran “The Regime is Over” | Enduring America __________________ Payandeh Iran, Sarfaraz [...]
A lot of Iranians in Iran see the NIAC and Mr Trisha Parsi as connected with the Mullahoacracy and as such have violent spasms towards them. Again as always it is highly dangerous and foolish for any group outside Iran to wag its tail too loudly. This is a truely Iranian affair and we need no external forces. also it is highly dangerous to judge too quickly when you know not enough facts. I personally don't know enough about the NIAC to make a judgement on them. On the surface they seem to have reasonable policies and mandates and seem to be trying to become some kind of equivilant to the AIPAC only supporting Iran in USA. In general we need to know more about this guy other than the canned stuff we get about NIAC and Mr Parsi and his organizations objectives
To Where Is My Vote-
As we routinely observe with the mullahs, nothing is as it seems. So we are wise to learn and wait. As a good Iranian friend said recently, after the change, we will address the evil individuals, try them in court and decide their fates. For now, we must stay focused, innovative and work hard. I believe we hold the same goal, just different ideas of how to achieve the desired result. Sometimes life sucks and we are all growing up real fast with this Iranian crisis in front of our eyes. The regime will fall!!
I will leave it up to you to learn more about NIAC. I know more than I care to know. I suggest that the next time you read an article or watch a TV show on a mainstream source about Iran, take the author or speakers name, google that name and NIAC.
Apk
@APK
Yes I agree with you that Mr. Parsi seems to be highly influential in the US media and is hub knobing with a lot of people in the Obama admin. My gut tells me conspiracy conspiracy, but as Mr. Parsi is pushing the Obama administration to rethink its support of the AN and its lumping of AN and Greens in one common bucket, I am happy to take that. I was hoping that other people outside of Iran can add opinions about him. I have not read his book "Treacherous Alliances," which seems to be needed to judge what he is saying and where he is coming from. I too agree that at this moment we need to remain vigilant and focused on the task at hand and that is to get rid of the Mullahs and this regime at any cost. We will then deal with the details of the leftover cronies after.
[...] See the original post: Iran: Letter from Tehran “The Regime is Over” | Enduring America [...]
WIMV-
Couldn't resist- this will get you started. FYI - Parsi is sueing this Iranian American man for defamation of character. Get a large bag of good chips and a couple of 2 liters- enjoy http://english.iranianlobby.com/RT RT RT RT RT RT RT
Apk
'
To akp:
You seem to be more interested in bashing Trita Parsi and NIAC than staying on the topic here which is an eye witness in Tehran sharing the dynamics of what (s)he sees that is leading up to the collapse of the current regime in Tehran.
What that tells me is that you've been reading and are influenced by Neo Con, Iranian Monarchists, or MEK sources. The reason why these organizations do not like NIAC is simple: Each one of them along with AIPAC used to exert quite a bit of influence over Washington's policy towards Iran. NIAC as an organization with the largest membership of Iranian Americans in Washington has changed all that by articulating positions on Iran that is nuanced, balanced and well researched and these other folks are not happy about that, pure and simple.
Having followed NIAC over the past 6-7 months, it's clear to me that their position has changed as the situation on the ground in Iran has changed. They are now in favor of smart sanctions, but more importantly they want the regime be held accountable for its gross human rights violations. Smart sanctions mean going after individuals who are hoarding billions of dollars in various banks around the world as opposed to people who trying to put food on the table or drive their cars to work. What's wrong with that?
As for the economy collapsing, I heard this morning that 2 very large oil industry contractors have not been paid by the government which means thousands of oil workers not getting paid and potentially going on strike. Keeping my fingers crossed...
Is our objective on EA the sharing of information, analysis of facts, constructive discussion of ideas for the purpose of dialog and advancement of democracy in Irant?
If yes, we should remain focused on the issues rather than succumb to partisanship and character demolition. The issue of whether or not sanctions will help end the dictatorship is worthwhile of discussion, and there's no conclusive evidence to point to either direction (would that weaken the regime as in Sth Africa or leave it unscathed as in Iraq and Cuba? And what might be the possible unintended consequences?). There are credible arguments, groups and people supporting both sides of this very complex argument but I see no point in wasting time discussing (demonizing or idolizing) the Parsi's, Doaee's or others based on them agreeing or not with our personal viewpoint.
Unfortunately while the issue of sanctions has been brought up multiple times in this thread, we've just thrown stones at others without engaging in any actual analysis or discussion. I'm not an expert on economy and I'd love to read a solid analysis of the pros and cons of sanctions. Any taker?
First- I am responding to comments made in the blog and directed to me, the first referring to an Iranian lobbying arm in US. FYI- I joined this blog long after it got off task.
NIAC- I to, have only been familiar with NIAC for past 6 - 7 months. The neocon, MEK, etc. are only a fraction of the sources of discontent with NIAC, which I learn about this group from. NIAC for me is simple addition- something does not add up. Prefer not to have one source influencing my country on such an important subject. I think regime likes having one newspaper and one TV station. Whenever anyone challenges validity of NIAC's messages they get slammed as MKO or Neocons (Monarchist is new one.) Who else blames everthing on a few entities?
Statistics- Are there any other US funded, Iranian American groups in Washington, other than NIAC? Might account for your membership comment.
My husband is a lawyer, with undergraduate in Economics. I get the economic topic. Strikes are a great idea and usually are in lock step with failing economies and no paychecks. Question- How is not getting a paycheck harder than suffering financially from side effects of sanctions? I suggest researching the alliance between EU business and IR, a complicating, importnt factor.
Letter- Fair criticism not talking about the letter- this letter makes me real sad that the Iranian citizens must live in such fear and repression.
We are all keeping our fingers crossed. And no, I am not a neocon- avid Vietnam War protestor. MKO or Monarchist- no go either. Just learned about them in past 6 - 7 months also.
Love Obama
We all need this regime to fall, asap.
Apk
Enduring America is a regular stop for me. Scott is doing a wonderful job giving equal press to all opinions. We learn from others nuances, stories and opinions. I am happy for you that you find alliance with NIAC.
I take no issue with the author, fully support only those trying to derail the leaders in our country.