Sunday
Feb072010
Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime "It's Deja Vu All Over Again"
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 8:08 
It's one of those phrases that I have always wanted to use in a news story. Yogi Berra, a great American baseball player but a notorious mangler of language, once said of the feats of the teammates, "It's like déjà vu all over again."A few months we wrote of an attempt by the Ahmadinejad Government, as it set out the priority of a deal with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme, that this was a blatant attempt to divert attention from internal political crisis. We added that, despite the headlines that the manoeuvre would get, the effort would soon be exposed.
Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction
In less than 24 hours, we were proved right as the "conservative opposition", figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the Green movement attacked the Government on a number of fronts.
Yesterday, it was déjà vu all over again.
In the morning, all the buzz in the US and British press was Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's declaration in Munich that an agreement could be reached on a "swap" of uranium outside Iran. There was the inevitable cycle of surprise that Tehran could hold out the prospect and then of scepticism as "Western" politicians put the brakes on expectations.
We, however, were listening to the tick-tick-tick of opposition within the Iranian establishment. As early as Thursday, there was unsubtle signals from Parliament and key politicians that they were unhappy with President Ahmadinejad's declaration on national television that uranium could be sent outside Iran. Yesterday morning, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani left no doubt: his attack on the deal was not, first and foremost, an attack on the "West" but on his President.
Even this, however, was just another act in the nuclear sideshow. Throughout Saturday, only a few days before the demonstrations of 22 Bahman (11 February), the main event was the exposure of weakness and fear, not only in the Government but within the Iranian regime.
It came in yet more statements from opposition figures. Have no doubt: this is no longer a Mousavi or a Khatami or a Karroubi putting out a declaration but a co-ordinated campaign --- the "relay of opposition" --- to keep the Government unsettled and to build up momentum for 22 Bahman. Yesterday it was a statement from Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi's forthright boost for protest and criticism of the regime in interviews and on his website, and then Karroubi's party Etemade Melli putting out a manifesto for this week's demonstrations.
The Government response? A whimper. As President Ahmadinejad went to a girls' school to proclaim the Revolution lived through more than 1200 education and sports projects, a couple of officials like Iran's police chief insisted that the protests would be broken. Bluster rather than substance was exposed, however, when it was the magazine of the Revolutionary Guards that was the key site for warning Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi, "Repent or Else".
Or Else what? While the extent of the regime's crackdown should not be underestimated --- the detainees languish in prison, the Internet crawls to a near-stop --- the persistence of the opposition is clear outside Iran and, I suspect, inside the country. (Note that Mousavi started this latest cycle of declarations more than a week before 22 Bahman, probably to assure that --- despite the limits on communications --- there was enough time to get the message throughout Green networks.)
So last night it was not just a case of opposition confidence. It was also the clearest sign of regime fear. No firm predictions, but diligent historians may one day blow the dust off Saturday's open letter of prominent member of Parliament Ali Motahhari to Mousavi.
Of course, Motahhari tries to show strength through tough language: "Our gracious Leader in his recent speech has mildly described the actions of you and Karroubi as 'negligence'. These are signals for you to change your position with the aim of strengthening national unity." However, beneath the demand is a pleading: accept the supremacy of the Supreme Leader, and we will deal with this President who is undermining the Republic.
That letter,disseminated quickly in state media, is not one of a regime in control. That letter is not one of a regime in the blush of confidence. Even if the most cynical of us think it is a trick --- Mousavi acknowledges Khameini, walking away from the Green opposition, but Ahmadinejad stays --- you don't play tricks on opponents whom you think are on the verge of defeat.
Compare Motahhari's move with the previous pre-demonstration displays of machismo by the regime: the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer of 19 June, the warnings before Qods Day in September not to take to the streets, the finger-wagging and attempts at intimidation before Ashura, even the threats of execution last week. The leaders in this system are shaking.
And, on the other side, compare the relay of statements from Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi to their lack of statements before Ashura. This time they are vocal, this time there is no doubt that --- while the protest should be non-violent and respectful --- the dissent should be visible.
All the while, below the public level of the regime's fretting and the defiance of its challengers, the Green Movement(s) plan.
It is four days to 22 Bahman.
Reader Comments (6)
Scott,
I would like to believe regime has lost control and is ready to crumble but after watching it in action on Ashura I am sad to say that is wishful thinking. This regime will stop at nothing even if it means mass killing. It has the fire power and as long it is not met with a response in-kind it continues to plow through people to maintain power. After Ashura I am resigned to the fact that this battle will not be won by protest alone.
RE "Bluster rather than substance was exposed, however, when it was the magazine of the Revolutionary Guards that was the key site for warning Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi, “Repent or Else”."
What I think this also exposes is who is actually calling the shots now in the IRI. This is something I said was starting to happen in a post from last October (I think) :
+++++
Why does the president - a single political figure who can be replaced by another - need to have a secure position when the following is occurring within the power structures of the governing system he is but a part of?
On the one hand: The IRGC’s structure is being reformed and its commanders changed and reshuffled, now with 29 provincial IRGC units, one for each province, plus two additional special units for the city and province of Tehran. The Basij is being merged into into the ground force of the IRGC, and the Basij will begin opening chapters in the lower grades of the educational system. IRGC commander Jafari claimed in a speech last winter that the IRGC’s structural reforms were undertaken to combat “soft warfare” and “domestic threats.” Two weeks ago deputy of the supreme command of the IRGC Masoud Jazaeri announced the creation of two “central” and “supreme” commands to combat “psychological operations of the enemy.” There are reports that the government plans to launch some 100 media outlets to confront the green movement and will be looking at new legislation to tighten controls on the use of the Internet.
++++++
The politicians may be running scared, but it remains to be seen if these thugs are.
The regime will fall when a tipping point is reached - in which more and more Guards and basij - like many of the regular police already have - decide they cannot resist the overwhelming power and presence of the people of Iran - which include their own family and friends - and refuse to maim and kill any more simply to prop up a regime they know to be evil, corrupt, and utterly incompetent.
And once this happens - the regime - like a pack of cards - will fall very quickly.
It's very possible but not certain that this tipping point will be arise in 4 days time at 22 Bahman - but it will happen - and most probably in 2010.
DarJan,
My greatest fear is that tipping point may not be quite as you hope. I fear that when that point is reached the IRGC/Basiji, rather than join the people, will replace the current regime as a military dictatorship with no pretext of republicanism. Up to now the killings have been kept to a minimum but if it goes to a military dictatorship, all gloves come off. At that point, it will fall on the Artesh as to whether they will follow the Guard or fight for the people. And it will be a fight if the Guard tries to take over.
Perry 1949,
Your fears are well founded, but remember that this regime is still nourishing from its "Islamic" legitimacy (mostly scattered by now). Even if the IRGC and Basiji should be capable of taking over the country by force, what about their legitimation?
After all they pride themselves on Khomeini and being righteous revolutionaries. IRIB is apparently dismissing most republican elements of Khomeini's speeches, but they are still alive among high ranking hardliners, parts of the IRGC and the people (see also Khomeini's grandson's recent reproaches to IRIB on this subject).
Obviously these very republican elements of the IRI are now a major problem for all those, who dream of establishing a (para)military dictatorship.
And then... a majority of IRGC members voted for Khatami in 1997. They are still there, and their grown-up children did certainly not forget that period of relative freedom. You cannot rule a country against the will of a majority of its citizens. The only solution would be to exchange the people ...
What a blog seen hardly like these blogs nice stuff i9n the blog thanks for the blog dude thanku very much....:) nruffg nruffg - Belstaff outlets.