Iran Follow-Up: Interpreting the Assembly of Experts "The Certainty of the Uncertain"

Mr Verde follows up our analysis of the "mystery" of the Assembly of Experts statement/non-statement supporting the Supreme Leader and declaring that time has run out for a seditious opposition.



For the latest on the continuing politics, see our analysis of the Supreme Leader's "big push" and our latest updates:

The Assembly of Experts has been holding twice a yearly for many years. Most of its meetings are behind closed doors. The official reports of the meetings usually included a few set-piece and rather predictable speeches. And they were ignored by most people.

Iran Analysis: Khamenei's Not-So-Big Push
Iran Analysis: The Assembly of Experts Mystery

The only notable “news” about the Assembly meetings in recent years was the 2007 election to replace the deceased Ali Meshkini as chair. Until then only one candidate stood in the election and was elected unanimously to show unity. This time, however, there were two candidates: Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.


Most people expected Jannati to win because Jannati heads the Guardian Council, which has to approve members of the Assembly. Rafsanjani had lost the second round of the 2005 presidential election to Ahmadinejad. Yet Rafsanjani beat Jannati. And then people again forgot about the Assembly and its sessions.

This was until the June 2009 presidential elections.

Soon after the disputed elections, a statement was released by the secretariat of the Assembly declaring that the members not only supported the Supreme Leader but they also supported the results. It later transpired that the statement was signed only by Mohammad Yazdi, a strong Ahmadinejad backer, a Guardian Council member close to Jannati, and the secretary of the Assembly. It was in effect Mohammad Yazdi’s opinion printed on Assembly letterhead.

Some of those hoping that the Islamic Republic would find a way out of the post-election crisis looked to the autumn session of the Assembly for a solution. They were disappointed, but this time they took note of the limited news of the Assembly’s proceedings. Mohammad Yazdi did not attend the meetings of that session, and citing his illness, he resigned as secretary of the Assembly. His resignation was rejected by Rafsanjani, who wished him a speedy recovery and return to his duties (a few days later Yazdi was pictured attending another event, which may point to illness being used as an excuse).

During the session some members criticised the actions of the regime and, by implication, the Supreme Leader. They were and still are attacked by the radical right for their stance.

Then during the final meeting, a strongly worded statement was read out on behalf of the Assembly by Ahmad Khatami, a hardline cleric and fervent supporter of Ahmadinejad. It was reported that Rafsanjani was not present during that part of the meeting and, later, that he had received a call from Khamenei asking him to attend a meeting with the Supreme Leader immediately. No news was ever published about the subject of this meeting was about and why it was it so urgent that Rafsanjani had to leave in the middle of the Assembly.

The struggle between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad supporters continued after the autumn session. At one point Rafsanjani was criticised, indeed threatened, by Yazdi. For the first time in the post-election crisis, Rafsanjani responded directly to an attack and said that he would reveal facts about Yazdi’s past actions. This lead to Yazdi calling a truce.

This week, Ahmadinejad supporters were hoping to create an atmosphere in which they could force Rafsanjani out as the head of the Assembly. The Yazdi attacks were accompanied by castigations of Rafsanjani’s family and political associates.

It seems that the plan to remove Rafsanjani has not worked, but there were no reports of speeches by critics of the current situation either. Instead, there were anomalies putting a question mark over the legitimacy of the meeting. Again Yazdi was absent because of "illness"; instead his son, who has no legal right to attend, was present.

Rafsanjani made a point of announcing the attendance of the younger Yazdi, raising speculation. Was the head of the Assembly effectively declaring that the body's status had been compromised? Was this a personal response to Yazdi, implying that he is so used to illegal actions that he would dare send his son to represent him? Or was Rafsanjani trying to protect the legitimacy of the gathering by citing "special circumstances"?

Yet the meeting was further damaged, at least in its official standing, by the absence of key members. Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini was either too ill or staged a personal boycott. (Amini, although a "conservative", stepped down as Friday Prayer leader of Qom because of his dissatisfaction with post-election events.) Rafsanjani ally Hassan Rohani was missing, as was Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, who had reportedly worked with Rafsanjani and others last autumn to forge a National Unity Plan. Perhaps most surprisingly, Mesbah Yazdi, a hardline cleric reported to be Ahmadinejad’s religious mentor, was also a no-show.

So instead of ending in resolution, this week's meeting merely adds more puzzles and complications. The regime was trying to demontration both its unity after the events of 22 Bahman and its power, amidst symbolic developments like the launching of the Jamaran warship and the arrest of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi. It wanted to present the image to the Iranian people that all is back to normal. Meeting Assembly members yesterday, the Supreme Leader tried to drive home the impression, emphasising that those who continued to question the June election were no longer acceptable in the Iranian system.

Rafsanjani served the regime to an extent by warning all to be careful that the arrows of criticism are not turned towards the Supreme Leader. Yet he later said, in a statement he repeated yesterday at Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum, that some officials are not taking responsibility for their own actions and are instead trying to push the blame onto Khamenei. (At one stage he said that we need to be careful that the crisis does not escalate further, using the word “toghyan”, which can be translated into English as insurrection or insurgency or uprising.)

So, just as the Assembly was far from "normal" with the absences and the continuing political manoeuvres within its ranks, the Islamic Republic is far from settled. In one moment, the call is "all is well". In the next, it is that "all should be well" with the threats against the opposition. And then, finally, with a wink and a nod, Hashemi Rafsanjani says "all might not be well" because of "uninformed individuals" (who are they?).

This is the certainty of the uncertain.

Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi's Son Matters

Mr Verde writes for EA:

Imagine for a moment that the son or daughter of a Presidential or Prime Ministerial candidate in the US or Britain had been taken away by plainclothes security forces and kept in an unknown locations for days. Imagine that he or she had been beaten and threatened with rape. Think of the headlines and furour.

Consider that this is what allegedly occurred in Tehran last Thursday. According to the son of Mehdi Karoubi, Hossein, his younger brother Ali was detained when Karroubi's entourage was confronted by security forces. Fatemeh Karroubi, Ali's mother, has written an open letter to the Supreme Leader, detailing the claimed torture and rape threats, which allegedly took place in a mosque. Ali Karroubi’s wife, Nafiseh Panahi, has said that her husband suffered a broken arm and fractured skull.

The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

The response of the regime? Tehran’s Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi stated that there was no warrant for the arrest of Ali Karrroubi and that he concluded, from his enquiries of the police, intelligence agencies and Revolutionary Guards, that such a person was never detained. He added that Ali Karroubi shoulld prove his allegation by stating why he was detained and where. (Fatemeh Karroubi had already stated in her letter that the location of the alleged detention and abuse was Amir-al-Momenin Mosque in Tehran. It should also be noted that it is normally the arresting party who puts forth a reason for detention, not the suspect.)


With the Prosecutor’s denial of any such detention, let's work through the scenarios:

1. Ali Karroubi was never touched by anyone and the entire story is a fabrication. In that case, his brother Hossein, his mother, his wife, and he should be arrested immediately: the first three for lying and Ali for posing in a photo with the alleged bruises. (Many people have been arrested and handed harsh sentences for allegedly causing far less damage to the Islamic Republic’s reputation than alleging torture and threat to rape in a mosque.)

2. Someone other than the Iranian authorities kidnapped and tortured Ali Karroubi. Hossein Karroubi says that Ali Karroubi was snatched in the Sadeghiyeh area, just north of Azadi Square where the official 22 Bahman event was taking place. There is also footage of Mehdi Karroubi being attacked by tear gas in that area.

In this case, the Tehran Prosecutor General is admitting that the regime, despite massing security forces last Thursday, was unable to prevent the kidnapping of the son of a senior revolutionary .

3. Ali Karroubi was snatched by authorities, tortured, and threatened with rape in a mosque, but they lied to the Tehran Prosecutor, who is so gullible that he publicly repeated that lie without checking out the facts. Where does this leave the credibility of post-election prosecutions and court sentences, including capital punishment?

4. Ali Karroubi was snatched by the authorities, tortured, and threatened with rape in a mosque. The Prosecutor General is aware of this but is lying. If a high-ranking official is attempting such a fabrication, what credibility does Iran's Judiciary have?

Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran

EA correspondent Mr Azadi, who was in close contact with sources in Tehran throughout Thursday, writes this summary:

At 10 p.m., Iranian television began its news with part of the Supreme Leader's declaration, "Iran will be safe to the day that we follow Velayat-e-Faqih (ultimate clerical authority)."

This was followed by the images from the Azadi Square rally, as the narrator said that the day was mainly to show "our" support for the Supreme Leader and the defeat of foreign enemies and those who would deceive "us".

It was a symbolic end to 22 Bahman, with all the noise coming from the regime: many Green Movement supporters believed that, even though they were "countless", they still were not able to show their presence.

What Happened:



From the early hours, plainclothes security forces and the Basij militia were stationed around various streets, putting them . under the control and surveillance of undercover and uniformed security forces. All entry and exit routes around Tehran, as well as bus terminals, were controlled as well. Government buses had transferred Basij forces and plainclothes officers from different parts of town to the demonstration routes.

From Imam Hussain Square to Ferdowsi Square, there were fewer forces. But from Ferdowsi Square onwards, anti-riot force bikes and trucks loaded with batons and tear gas were on standby: on Keshavarz Blvd, from Aria Hospital to Palestine Avenue, and especially around Tehran University.

The security forces were preventing the people from reaching Enghelab and 7 Tir Squares, as a large group moved along the streets leading to Enghelab Square. From Enghelab to Azadi Square the number of anti-riot police forces was low; instead, there was an increase in the plainclothes forces, who could be identified easily from their walky-talkies.

As there was high probability for students protesting at (state broadcasting) IRIB, a large number of military and Basij surrounded the broadcasting complex, on Jam-e-Jam Street, around Karegar and North Amirabad streets.

Tehran’s Sadeghieh Square was one of the focal points of protesters. Mehdi Karoubi had announced the place as the starting point of the demonstration, and  thousands of supporters of green movement had gathered here. Large crowds of green-clad protesters moved from Apadana, the home of Sohrab Arabi (a martyred protester) towards Azadi sq. and Mohammad Ali Jenah Street. A large crowd of people were moving from Sadeghieh Sq. towards Azadi Square; even under tight security in the area, the slogans of “Down with the Dictator" could be heard.

In Asharafi Esfehani Street, people were shouting slogans such as "Death to Dictator and were tearing photographs of Khameini. The sound of car could be heard, which led to severe clashes between people and government forces. Tear gas was thrown and gunshots were heard. The first cases of arrest were reported from Azadi and Sadeghieh Squares.

Around 10:30 a.m. Mehdi Karroubi was attacked in Asharafi Esfehani Stree by plain-clothes officers. His bodyguards and others around him were beaten by batons and hit by "paint" bullets, while his car windows were broken. Karroubi left in another person’s car but the windows of this car were shattered as well. Two of Karroubi’s close friends, who also act as his bodyguards, were arrested by intelligence services and were sent to Evin Prison. (The two, Askarian and Anbar Nejad, each lost a limb defending their country during the Iran-Iraq War.)

Around 11 a.m. Mohammad Khatami joined the protesting crowds at the intersection of Zanjan St. and Azadi St., but was immediately forced to leave as a result of an attack on his car by plain-clothes officers. About 12 o’clock Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard joined the rally but again they were harshly attacked by plainclothes forces, and they were forced to leave the rally immediately.


In Azadi Square, the people on the East side were shouting “Death to Dictator!” and chanting: “Courageous Iranians: Support! Support!”; however, loudspeakers in the area were extremely loud and appear to have been arranged to overpower anti-government slogans. Government helicopters were spotted in the sky, flying just above the crowd of people. Rumours went around that the helicopters were taking videos of the crowd.

During Ahmadinejad’s speech, at some points, people could be heard shouting, "Liar, liar’, possibly causing him to lose his concentration on a couple of occasions. After the speech, because of security concerns, he left by helicopter.

The official pro-government march of 22 Bahman was finished, yet sporadic clashes continued in different areas of the city. More anti-riot police forces were called in to suppress the protesters, and eyewitnesses reported armed anti-riot police on motorcycles heading toward central Tehran. A large number of military forces were reported to be stationed around the Supreme Leader’s residence, the IRIB building, and North Amirabad Street. Until 11:30 p.m. local time, the sounds of siren and slogans could be heard in Shahrak Gharb and Vanak Square near Tehran University.

Those involved in the day assess that Green Movement was not able to show itself as well as it wished, even though there were many people on the streets:

1. The city was like a military base, and the control of the police was extensive.

2. Opposition leaders were stopped m participating in the rally, to prevent the formation of a Green Wave

3. People carrying Green symbols were arrested quickly.

4. The Green Movement made a mistake with the instruction to hide Green symbols until Azadi Square. This caused confusion amongst Green protesters, as it was hard to identify who was with and against them.

5. It seemed that people were waiting for others to make the first move and then follow them.

In conclusion, all involved declared that, while the Government used the day for their propaganda, 22 Bahman was still an important experience for the Green Movement to continue on its path.

Videos: The 22 Bahman Protests From Around the World

USA

Washington DC

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqoQiJo88x8&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Atlanta, Georgia

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9IhiwzXobM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zmEd8Sc-3w[/youtube]

AUSTRIA - Vienna

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M91eHhkS23U&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

MALAYSIA - Kualar Lumpur


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VzUPTSFe2s&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

ITALY - Rome

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ahNrvcPO6s[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYggHTujLSs&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

NEW Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
NEW Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)

UNITED KINGDOM - London

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ur8qtdiwpXQ[/youtube]


THE NETHERLANDS

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfFPY355F7k[/youtube]

BELGIUM - Brussels

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Ubc1SXGgk[/youtube]

NORWAY - Oslo

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9dfR4FtjXo[/youtube]

GERMANY

Berlin


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDOIHvOEK4w[/youtube]

Frankfurt

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9sxo8UiwTY[/youtube]

Munich

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btHgWigK_4o[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRpBaPZemI0[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btHgWigK_4o[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ANUEnNOuUo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLRKYODF6QM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RESM8mPk98[/youtube]

Iran: A Beginner's Guide to The Post-Election Conflict

Enduring America has been working with the University of Birmingham to provide a Briefing Note for those who are beginning to notice the developments in Iran. I thought that, for some new readers, this might be of use on a most important day:

Thursday in Iran is 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The day is also likely to see the biggest demonstrations, both for and against the Government, since June’s disputed Presidential election. The size of the protests are a matter for expectation: hundreds of thousands will be on the streets in Tehran and in cites across Iran, but one estimate, based on a Government source, is that three million people will be marching in Tehran alone.

The core immediate issue is the “legitimacy” of the Government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “Green Movement” protests last summer focused on the election, amidst claims of fraud and ballot-rigging that denied a runoff to challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi.



However, as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted on inaugurating Ahmadinejad and as Government tried to crack down on dissent, the issue of legitimacy spread far wider. Demonstrations, including not only Mousavi but former President Mohammad Khatami, Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi, senior clerics, and reformist politicians, demanded action over detentions, trials, and abuse of prisoners and sought guarantees for justice, freedom of speech, and political activity.

In short, by last autumn, the protest had evolved from a challenge to an election into a civil rights movement, made up of many different groups. The “Green Movement” no longer claimed to be led by a Mousavi but to be a grassroots organisation seeking change from “the bottom up”.

Despite the regime’s attempts to suppress protest through arrests, prison sentences, and even executions, as well as through disruption of communications, the waves of demonstrations have continued, marked by the “hijacking” of Iran’s holidays and celebrations. Key moments have included the “40th Day” memorial for post-election victims including Neda Agha Soltan (30 July), the Qods Day rallies (18 Sept.), the marches of 13 Aban (4 November), and the protests on Students Day (7 December). Most significantly, on one of Iran’s holiest days, Ashura (27 December), demonstrators not only came out in number but pushed back security forces.

The opposition to President Ahmadinejad is no longer confined to an “opposition”. Key politicians such as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who should be considered politically a “free agent” moving between factions, and even “conservative” members of Iran’s establishment, such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, are now criticising the President and perhaps plotting for his removal. It is likely that the pressure from many sides will force the Supreme Leader to curb Ahmadinejad’s authority and may even lead to the President’s removal from office.

Will that be enough, however, to restore “legitimacy”? That is an important, unanswered question. Had the Supreme Leader and key groups in the Iranian system recognised the complaints and rights of protesters last summer, then the challenge might have been one of “reform” within the Islamic Republic. However, in a paradox, the attempt to quell dissent may have not only bolstered it but widened its demands: factions of the Green movement are now seeking the modification or even abandonment of velayat-e-faqih, the system of ultimate clerical supremacy.

So 22 Bahman is unlikely to be the end of this post-election drama. Instead, it will be a significant act in the middle of the play: if the opposition can mobilise a mass presence, then it will be confirmed as a long-term force for change in Iran. If, however, the protest can be minimised and dispersed, then --- for now --- the Ahmadinejad Government and military forces such as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard may be able to hang onto a semblance of authority.