Monday
May172010
The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You, Mousavi)
Monday, May 17, 2010 at 19:04 
2120 GMT: We close tonight with an analysis by Gary Sick, posted in a separate entry, of today's Tehran agreement on uranium enrichment.2045 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Literary critic Abbas Khalili Dermaneh (also known as Khalil Dermaneki) has been released after almost five months in detention. Dermaneh was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations on 27 December.
Ahmad Yazdanfar, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's security detail, has been arrested.
NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Agreement on Uranium Enrichment
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Islamic Republic Depends Upon the People”
NEW Iran Document: The Prosecutor on the Executions, “Leaders of Sedition” (15 May)
NEW Iran Urgent: The Deal on Uranium Enrichment
Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions
1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Writer and children's rights activist Reza Khandan was released last Wednesday. Peyke Iran claims that that international pressure contributed to the decision to free him.
1440 GMT: Karroubi's "Islamic Republic Depends on the People". We have posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's latest rallying call for the Iranian people to defend the Republic.
1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Kabir University student Mohammad Yousefi has been released after six months in detention.
1150 GMT: More "It's Still War!" MediaFail (see 1024 GMT). It's one thing for The New York Times to package this morning's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal as, first and foremost, a complication for sanctions. Even if their "experts" are doing no more than speculating --- "The terms mirror a deal with the West last October which fell apart when Iran backtracked. This time, however, those same terms may be unacceptable to Washington and its partners because Iran has since increased its supply of nuclear fuel" --- at least there is the guise of analysis rather than Government spin.
Reuters, however, has no excuse. The agency ran the scare story last Friday from "Western diplomats" that Iran must be preparing for militarised nuclear capability because it was enriching uranium to 20 percent, rather than sending it abroad. So what happens when Iran does agree to send the uranium abroad?
Well, Reuters calls "Western diplomats" --- possibly the same ones who fed them their Friday article --- to get quotes:
"If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment [with their own centrifuges]? There is no other peaceful justification," a Western diplomat said. [NOTE: The "peaceful justification" is that Iran may not get enriched uranium for up to a year, even if this morning's deal goes through with the US and other powers.]
"This would be a deal-breaker," another said.
1120 GMT: Nuclear Question of the Day/Week/Month. We're continuing special updates in a separate entry on today's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal on uranium enrichment, and we have posted a copy of the agreement.
An EA correspondent, meanwhile, asks the key question about Iranian politics. We all know that President Ahmadinejad, seeking legitimacy, has pursued an agreement since last summer, but "why are the Supreme Leader and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who opposed last October's deal, now supporting it?"
1030 GMT: Academic Corner. Four students from Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have been expelled for political opposition.
1024 GMT: CNN on Iran Nuclear Deal "It's Still War!" A hopeless display of journalism from CNN this morning....
Instead of trying to get to grips with the possible significance of the deal announced by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey, CNN's website goes back to the older scare story --- circulated by "Western diplomats" on Friday --- of Iran putting in a second cascade of centrifuges to provide 20-percent enriched uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor, producer of medical isotopes (see Saturday's updates).
True, Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Islamic Republic News Agency this morning that Iran would continue this process but --- since arrangements for a swap of Iran's 3.5-percent uranium for 20-percent uranium in Turkey may not be completed until mid-2011 --- that would seem a logical step to keep the TRR going.
So here's CNN gambit: "20-percent enriched uranium is the threshold for uranium capable of setting off a nuclear reaction. And Western leaders have alleged that Iran is trying to create nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy program."
Umm... "Threshold for a nuclear reaction". Not threshold for even a single bomb, which is more than 90 percent.
0750 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting academics, doctors, nurses, and families of martyrs, has asserted that the Islamic Republic was only born through people's votes; therefore, the Republic derives its meaning from the people.
0730 GMT: The Nuclear Deal. We will be providing updates on today's agreement between Brazil, Turkey, and Iran in a separate entry.
Meanwhile, the key (and probably unasked) question on the internal dimension: what legitimacy will the Ahmadinejad Government claim (and what legitimacy will it obtain) from the agreement? Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there seems to be an anniversary coming up on 12 June....
0720 GMT: Intimidation. Following the public threat to Mir Hossein Mousavi from the Tehran Prosecutor General and the letter by 175 members of Parliament calling for prosecution of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see yesterday's updates), Khabar Online offers a timeline of the warnings to Mousavi and Karroubi.
0620 GMT: We open this morning with updates on two important stories.
Media inside and outside Iran will likely be focused on news of agreement between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey on a procedure for a deal on enrichment of Tehran's uranium. We've got the latest developments and what to watch for today.
Inside Iran, however, the political story is the continued effort by the Government to defend the executions, now more than a week old, of 5 Iranians. We have a transcript of Saturday's lengthy statement by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi justifying the hangings.
However, just as significant in the statement --- despite Dowlatabadi's extended denial that the timing of the executions has any political significance --- is his high-profile warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Tehran Prosecutor's references to Mousavi's position as Prime Minister in the 1980s, during a period when many Iranians were executed, should not be missed: you supported them then, so why trumpet public opposition now?
Then there is Dowlatabadi's pointed declaration to the "leaders of sedition": we've seen you denounce this execution of rightfully-condemned terrorists, we've noted it, and we will add it to the list of charges against you.
Absolutely no connection to the 12 June anniversary of the Presidential election, with the possibility of opposition demonstrations, whatsoever.
Reader Comments (37)
Breaking news
Mehmanparast: Iran fuel swap could take place in Turkey
http://www.irna.ir/En/View/FullStory/?NewsId=1120143&IdLanguage=3" rel="nofollow">http://www.irna.ir/En/View/FullStory/?NewsId=11...
Karroubi Watch
In a meeting with academics, doctors, nurses, and families of martyrs he said: the body of the IR came only into being by the people's votes, and derives its meaning from them. http://www.sahamnews.org/?p=2543#more-2543" rel="nofollow">http://www.sahamnews.org/?p=2543#more-2543
Do you really think they will go so far as to prosecute of Mousavi and Karroubi? It would be a very desperate move.
[...] The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You ... [...]
RE Nuclear deal being accepted by P5+1
I already posted what I thought about that here: http://enduringamerica.com/2010/05/17/iran-latest-on-a-deal-on-uranium-enrichment/#comment-50681628" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/05/17/iran-late...
and I would be really surprised if this doesn't form part of at least the official US reaction.when it comes.
Green Voice of Freedom seems to be offline (filtered/hacked?)
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/
هم اکنون سایت در حال به روز رسانی و ارتقا است. تا ساعاتی دیگر بر می گردیم.
Killed Protesters Watch
According to Jaras the rape and killing of Taraneh Mousavi has now undubitably been linked to Hossein Ta'eb, former Bassiji chief and actual intelligence commissoner to IRGC: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/15596/
After recent quarrels between intel service and Sepah (IRGC) all prisoners of the latter were transferred to intel prisons, and the intel minister has received a top secret file on Ta'eb, reporting on several cases of arrested protesters raped in Ta'eb's headquarters in Seoul street (Tehran). Tahereh Mousavi's body, who had suffered severe injuries in the abdomen area, was later found burned in an unspecified area. Karroubi reported her case in a letter to Raffers already last summer.
I don't see how they would do that. I really think that the response from the people if either (or both) are arrested would be huge, and mostly negative.
[...] The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You ... [...]
Finally, something that everyone interested in Iran can agree on! Everyone here on the Enduring America website must be absolutely thrilled at the promise of much-needed medical isotopes for the Iranian people.
EABrill,
Who cares for the Iranian people? Your beloved "president", the SL and his bunch of IRGC and Bassiji mercenaries, who have arrested thousands, raped and killed dozens of Iranian citzens since the rigged elections?
In reality the uranium swap is a flop!
Iran nuclear deal does not end move to sanctions: EU
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=3038638" rel="nofollow">http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=...
ma bishomarim
Arshama
Weird accusations also against Clotilde Reiss:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/7733540/French-teacher-accused-of-spying-did-work-for-French-MI6.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europ...
Can someone please enlighten us (Scott)? ;)
Arshama
What the world needs in Iran is Regime change. Whatever brings it about is OK by me
Barry
Barry,
"What the world needs in Iran is Regime change. Whatever brings it about is OK by me."
If the fuel swap deal enhances the regime's standing, as seems likely, won't that reduce the likelihood of regime change?
Barry,
I agree with you on Regime Change, but not at any price.
Today on VoA physicist Dr. Nosratollah has criticised the regime, which has wasted § 70 billion on its nuclear programme, an outdated technology, instead of spending this sum on much cheaper sustainable solar energy, which is locally available. http://www.voanews.com/wm/voa/nenaf/pers/pers1630vbMON.asx" rel="nofollow">http://www.voanews.com/wm/voa/nenaf/pers/pers16...
He complains about innumerable problems related to this nuclear programme, especially security issues (transportation, exchange of fuel rods etc.). Actually no one seems to be informed about these problems in Iran, or critics are not allowed to speak out.
The IR's fundamental policy principle has been causing unrest since its early days, whether domestically or internationally. Let us hope that the Iranian people stops this regime before it is too late...
Arshama
Arshama,
"I agree with [Barry] on Regime Change, but not at any price."
How do you feel about the fuel swap deal? It probably enhances the regime's image, don't you think? Do you think its benefits for sick Iranians outweigh this?
Nemo,
Afraid I don't much about Siramy. Just from reading the article and in the context of similar cases of "revelations" here in Britain, I would treat with a grain of salt. Siramy does have a book to promote, and it is not clear how he would be in a position --- given his specific job in the French service --- to know of Reiss' alleged activities. The quotes read more as speculation, rather than confirmation, of her supposed spying.
S.
I'm surprised at the lack of enthusiasm expressed here for the breakthrough fuel swap deal. What a great benefit for the Iranian people who will be treated with these medical isotopes!
EABrill,
Go tell this fable to your people from Race for Iran!
Firstly no one believes in this so-called "break-through fuel swap deal", because it a) it doesn't comply with international community's demands, and b) will likely be rejected by the IR within the next weeks.
Secondly because it is no benefit to the Iranian people, who are forced to live in a situation of martial law since Ashura, when your Holy Republic killed at least 38 of them. No benefit for people, who suffer from sanctions imposed on them for AN's hazardous policies, who suffer from unemployment and unpaid wages, because state companies are put on sale to IRGC (so-called privatization), or languish for more than ten months in your glorious prisons, because they peacefully demanded their rights.
Dorooghgoo doshmane khoda ast!
Arshama
Arshama,
Even if all the suffering of Iranians that you describe continues, will the production of plentiful and less expensive medical isotopes somehow make it worse?
At least one form of suffering might be alleviated: horrible deaths from cancer and other diseases. With this deal, it seems more likely that affordable and plentiful medical isotopes will be available to treat Iranians.
I'm surprised and disappointed by the apparently lukewarm reaction to this fuel swap deal on this website. I would have expected that everyone would set aside political differences for at least one day to cheer from the rooftops about this wonderful development for the health of the Iranian people.
Can anyone explain this to me? Are people on this website more enthusiastic than they seem to be? Maybe I'm just not noticing it.
Arshama,
"In reality the uranium swap is a flop!
Iran nuclear deal does not end move to sanctions."
I'm getting even more confused. Maybe the uranium swap won't totally eliminate the possibility of sanctions, but it certainly doesn't make sanctions more likely. If sanctions are no more likely, and arguably are less likely (as many commentators say), how can the uranium swap be considered a flop? At worst, it's a "wash" as far as sanctions go, and think of all the health benefits for Iranians who may now have access to plentiful and less expensive medical isotopes.
In your understandable desire to improve the situation for Iranians, I hope you won't overlook something that promises to improve their lives and won't have any effect one way or the other on their suffering in other areas.
Am I missing something here? Will this somehow harm Iranians in some other way? I don't think of you as a callous person, but I confess I'm at a loss to understand why you're not thrilled with this great advance for the health of the Iranian people.
Pessimist
(I don't know how to log in with the new system)
Tonight, I watched a debate on Iran on our TV (Fr. 5), where both questions were raison - the nuclear deal and Clothilde Reis. There were various experts as guests.
And of course our news for the past two days was focused on her especially.
The claim of this ex intel agent has been largely discussed. In fact, he never said she was a spy, and not paid. He said simply that she was just to give an impression on internal 'atmosphere' and any nuclear info.
This has therefore been hyped up as a 'spy'.
But, according to some 'experts' including other intel folks etc... the guy is not very credible because of several things : he is just publishing a book, so it's to get attention
- he also has some dubious things surrounding him
- those in the know say that never would such a young person be 'left in the wild', as such, as with 'real' ones, they would never be as she was, a transparent (totally open to all Iran intel because of her job etc), student with photos etc on her PC, emails etc.
As for the deals with exchange of prisoners, here they deny it. And even several months ago they said the same because legally, the two were able to be freed.
But, all say that in all negociations, of this type of hostage, which she was, without any doubt, there are always exchanges of some kind.
The timing is obviously related, Iran wishes to show 'compassion' when they are weak, under internal stress with anniversary coming up, and, the hangings, all that it very well noted.
Clothilde gave a moving speech in front of reporters in the courtyard of the Elysee palace after having been received by the president, in presence of her father and foreign minister. She said she thanked all those who contributed to her liberation and especially the iranians in Evin prison who welcomed her as a sister. She gave particular thoughts to the two who were hanged in January who were sitting next to her in the televised trials, that everyone in the world saw.
As for the nuclear stuff, the folks invited, (not official), seemed to say that it was the same offer as before, that for Brazil and Turkey it was also a way of getting recognized as 'serious' countries, to show they could be more than just 'developing' countries etc. That Iran had gone all over Africa seeking agreements for all these things, and that the few friends that it has, it was making the most out of it.
All in all, it was said that Iran has great internal problems - economic, political and social and couldn't afford to aggravate itself on the international scene.. it was all orchestrated. It was also said that the sanctions would no doubt continue against targetted people. It was also said that Iran considers France as one of the most hated. They also mentioned the number of 'desertions' including scientists, and diplomats, like in Norway but many others who haven't been published, including French Iranian Embassy.
Sorry for the typos
Just a couple of other remarks, in France, some reactions are related to the 'fine' she had to pay, (250 000€ ) saying that it was outrageous that ordinary people should have to pay this through their taxes... And others demand to know who pays this sum, and why.
My personal opinion is that Iran always gets these huge sums of money as bail, or fines, mostly of course from ordinary people that have to sell their houses or businesses, or collect from friends and families. It's simply another crime, a form of corruption, getting such huge sums of money from people, and where, in fact does this money go ?
Pessismist,
To log in just click on the blue rectangle "Comments" at the right edge above the comments field. A new tab opens, asking you for login. Enter your data -- that's it :-)
Before writing you have to refresh the EA page, then your username will appear above the comments field, marked as verified, in Green of course ;-)
By the way, if you don't log out after each session, you will be automatically recognized by Disqus when starting a new one, even after having disconnected your laptop or computer.
Good luck!
Arshama
Pessimist,
I noted the fines as well. If you add them all up I would estimate it is approaching tens of millions if not over a hundered million dollars of hard cash for the regime. May not sound like a lot but I would be it is being directed towards the IRGC and the Basiji for who know's what. The only question is does the regime return bail money? If they do it would scaled these figures down quite a bit. Just my thoughts.
Thx
Bill