Sunday
Jun132010
Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup "Greens 1, Darks 0" (Lucas)
Sunday, June 13, 2010 at 7:13 
There was a moment yesterday when the two big events of my day --- 22 Khordad, the anniversary of Iran's 2009 President election, and the England v. USA match in football's World Cup --- intersected.Moments after I had seen video of defiant Iranians shouting Allahu Akbar (God is Great) from their rooftops, England's goalkeeper Robert Green --- sickeningly from an English point of view, wonderfully if you were supporting the ex-colonists --- fumbled an American shot into his own net.
Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad
It took seconds for an observer to send out the connection, "Iran's Green has had a much better day than England's Green".
And, as England the US eventually drew ("tied" if you're a Yank) 1-1, another scoreflash: "Iran 1 (Regime own goal), Darks 0".
The morning after 22 Khordad, a narrow victory for the Iranian opposition in the latest game in a perpetual contest seems about right.
That outcome was not evident, however, as late as mid-afternoon. Many in the "Western" media, who generally had a terrible day with their Iran coverage --- a notable exception was CNN, whose Reza Sayah would be outstanding in his ability to bring in significant news from Tehran sources --- had declared victory for the Iranian regime, even before the opening whistle. (Some reporters, bizarrely, continued to do so at the end of 22 Khordaad, ignoring all the action to pronounce a "day that passed quietly.)
As of mid-afternoon, there had been little public movement. The headline of the "official" withdrawal of the request to march by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi carried over, with the only glimpse of demonstration coming in reports that there had been a protest at Tehran's Sharif University. Even the presence of the Iranian state was muted: there seemed to be few uniformed forces and plainclothes Basiji militia in the streets.
However, EA had gotten one piece of news from a correspondent that suggested there might be a change. From a reliable source in Iran, we learned that marchers in Tabriz would be coming out at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).
Then, via a valuable source on Twitter (yes, the same Twitter that has been a punching bag all week for those trying to grab easy conclusions and headlines about the meaning of this year in Iran), we learned that demonstrators in Mashaad and Shiraz would be trying to assemble at the same time.
And then the reports from Tehran: students were assembling at Tehran University. Security forces were trying to block them from exiting the campus; however, other groups of protesters were moving across central Tehran in an effort to meet them. There were chants and clashes at Enghelab Square and Vali-e Asr Avenue.
For the next few hours, those reports spiralled to the point of confirmation. There had been scattered demonstrations throughout the centre of the city. Thousands (how many thousands?) --- despite all the Government intimidation, the threats of imprisonment and beating, the State media's denunciation of the foreign-supported fitna sedition, and even the withdrawal of the official sanction by Mousavi and Karroubi for the march --- had shown up.
Pieces came together. Students, some of whom had examinations on the day, had not appeared until their academic duty was done. Workers had waited to complete their jobs for the day. And one EA correspondent
Of course, some perspective is needed here. As on all occasions since last June, the security forces of the regime had prevented a mass gathering. This would not be millions or even tens of thousands in a single place, as there had been three days after the election. There would be no dramatic appearance by a Mousavi or a Karroubi or, perhaps needless to say, a Hashemi Rafsanjani.
But on this day, for this game, there did not need to be tens of thousands in one place. No "star" had to show for victory. All it needed was the thousands who had emerged.
Because "victory" on 22 Khordaad would simply be some public glimpse of protest. This was the mirror image of 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution and the last attempt at a mass demonstration. Then the bar of expectation was quite high and the outcome was disappointment. Now the bar was disappointment and the outcome, as day turned into night, went higher and higher over that challenge.
As an Iranian observer put it cogently, "Even one protester on the streets --- given all the threat and cost of being there --- is a small sign that Green lives."
And as another posted on a discussion forum, "“I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of ‘We Are Countless!)”
Now, those supporting the Iranian Government are going to respond --- indeed, some did prematurely yesterday, before the developments of the late evening and afternoon --- that these scattered gatherings do not constitute anything more than the shadow of a challenge. They will contend that the Green Movement's supporters will grasp at any straw to prove they are still in the game. They will disregard the numerous reports and even the glimpses that managed to get out of Iran despite all the regime's efforts at blackout. They may even try the line that, "well, at my particular spot in Tehran at one particular moment" --- even though there was the protests were never going to be in that spot, indeed when that particular moment was before the gatherings arose --- "I did not see anything".
Their points should be noted. So should these....
1. This was just the public tip of discontent, anger, and hope.
The reason that I am so hostile to the easy media line that the opposition/Green Movement was over/dead/mortally wounded is that EA, on a daily basis, has information about the disquiet over the Iranian Government and, in cases, the system. Usually, that discontent turns into a sullen resentment or a quiet, sometimes desperate wish that the situation will improve.
The private protest may not become public because organisation is difficult, with many activists imprisoned or abroad. It may be "silent" because a shout-out could lead to a loss of job, threats to a family, years behind bars.
But intimidation is not victory for the Government. And even the limited jump of private concern to public dissent is enough to stave off defeat.
2. The public dissent yesterday was "new" in this crisis in that it did not take place on a day already scheduled for commemoration (Tehran Friday Prayers, Qods Day, National Students Day, Ashura) by the regime. This protest had to make its own occasion.
And, to repeat, it did so despite the withdrawal of any "leadership" in the form of official sanction from an opposition figure.
In the immediate aftermath of the news that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they would not press for a permit to demonstrate --- and the implicit follow-on that they would be at home on 22 Khordad --- some concluded that this was a disappointing retreat.
Now, whether Mousavi and Karroubi foresaw developments or whether they anticipated them, their step leads to another conclusion: people took up Mousavi's call to show their dissent "by other means". No leader's call was necessary. No seal of approval had to be given before the moment.
That lesson now applies for each and every day beyond 22 Khordaad.
3. Almost as significant yesterday as the show of protest was the absence of the Government.
On the anniversary of his election, his supposed triumph over the "dust and tumbleweeds" who opposed him, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not on view. The Supreme Leader, who had rubber-stamped that triumph, issued no reflections or commands. The Revolutionary Guard did not make public threats or give public affirmations for their purported political masters.
There were some photos of Ahmadinejad on state TV, some derogatory references to Mousavi. Press TV put out its counter-narrative on the death of Neda Agha Soltan, "proving" foreign manipulation, "The Real Fake".
But this morning, the headline of the Islamic Republic News Agency has Ahmadinejad ignoring internal matters and pronouncing on the nuclear issue. Fars News? Not a single high-profile word on the state of Iran and the authority of Iran's State over its people.
A key political question --- perhaps the key political question --- for this last 12 months has been whether the Government would establish its legitimacy in the wake of the disputed election. And nothing yesterday pointed to that legitimacy.
4. A quick glance at the calendar is useful. For four months, there was no significant occasion on which to hang an opposition protest: no regime event to seize, no day with an obvious "hook" for demonstration.
Now the anniversaries come quickly: 48 hours from now is 25 Khordaad, which a year ago saw millions on the streets to challenge the election. Then it is 30 Khordaad, the day of last year's mass gathering which ended with defiance and the creation of martyrs like Neda Agha Soltan. Next month, there will be remembrances of other marches and other deaths.
The overriding question, as we put 12 June 2010 into the record book, may be this:
Did anyone think on 12 June 2009 that this political match in Iran would still be contested?
Reader Comments (10)
Folks,
Here is the HBO documentary on Neda: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk . VOA of was originally given first chance to air this into Iran then they got jammed again along with "random power outages" occured. Well HBO would have none of it and released the documentary on Youtube despite realizing they were canabalizing their revenue streams from such a film. It just goes to show some Americans have their hears in the right place--namely human rights!!
Thx
Bill
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Thank you.
Ali the colorblind Taliban - yesterday you told that you couldn`t find your basiji friends downtown. If you were unable to find the thousands of your basiji thugs yesterday - how could is it possible for you to find any greens?
My advice : You should look for medical care
Medical analyses : Very serious case of a total loss of reality
RAHANA- Tehran is currently experiencing a security atmosphere and police forces have a significant presence in different regions of Tehran.
According to RAHANA’s reporter, helicopters are flying above streets which had been selected for people’s silent demonstration from days ago, and the moral police cars have been stationing in a numer of other locations.
A number of reports indicate that Judge Salavati was seen on 12 Farvardin Street around 10 a.m. local time.
Moreover, special guard and plain-clothe forces are present in Enghelab St, Azadi St and along the pre-determined demonstration route to oppress people in case any protest starts.
Hamid Farokhnia of Iran Labor Report/Tehran Bureau reported yesterday from Tehran. He quotes a man who thinks the fact that there were so many security forces on the streets for an officially cancelled march, and that people showed up despite receiving text messages warning them not to, is also a sign of victory.
Exerpts from: 'Reporting from the frontline'
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/selected-headlines-180.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...
"Without any question, even if one Green failed to show up today, the fact that so many forces have been mobilized against us is a huge triumph for our movement," said a middle-aged street warrior at the intersection of Valiasr and Engelab, where some clashes had occurred earlier. "Bear in mind that the movement's leaders have called off protests today."
He continued: "They have been trumpeting for months that the Fetna (sedition) has been crushed and is long over with. Why mobilize this many people against something that is pronounced dead?"
A few meters away, several hundred uniformed personnel had lined the streets in menacing formations. By all accounts, this was one of the largest armed force mobilizations anybody had ever seen--including from all the protest rallies of the last 12 months. Estimates vary, but the number cited by several Greens this author talked to today give figures were in the 40,000-60,000 range (the actual number may be larger since it doesn't account for the forces confined in their barracks and at the ready). The numbers cited above involves regular uniformed personnel from Naja (the law Enforcement Agency), Sepah (Revolutionary Guards), special anti-riot units of Naja (called Special Units) and Basij regulars, plus legions of plainclothesmen from various branches--not to mention the ubiquitous freelancing vigilantes of various shades--all armed to the teeth and all filled with irrational fear and hatred toward the peaceful protesters.
.... Many people had in fact received text messages from the Ministry of Intelligence with the following words: "Dear citizen: you are a victim of deception by foreign networks. Should you continue repeating this action, you will face Islamic justice."
Juan Cole weighs in
'The Greens in Iran are a Movement, not a Coup'
What was the Green Movement? A debate rages among Iran-watchers. Partisans see it as a sign that Iran is on the verge of a massive democratization. Critics see it as an exaggerated hiccup, barely more important than the student protests of the late 1990s, which amounted to nothing. Which interpretation is right has implications for US foreign policy. If the regime is tottering, the Obama administration can afford to batter it with sanctions and ignore it, hoping to help it fall. If it is strong and enduring, then it will have to be dealt with and probably direct negotiations are called for.
The reality lies in the middle.... the Green Movement is a social movement that protested what its followers saw as the stealing of the June 12, 2009, election by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his patron, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
It is certainly the largest social movement in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It is frankly ridiculous to class it with the earlier small student demonstrations.
Read his analysis: http://www.juancole.com/2010/06/the-greens-are-a-movement-not-a-coup.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.juancole.com/2010/06/the-greens-are-...
Scott,
RE "3. Almost as significant yesterday as the show of protest was the absence of the Government."
There's another kind of absence of the government which is significant and shows the deep impact the GM has had on the regime: the fact that the government has scaled-down its own trademark state-sanctioned rallies.
From a CNN analysis:
Consider this past week when Iran would have celebrated Khomeini's life by commemorating his June 3, 1989, death. Though state-run media promised "millions" of followers to turn up for an event around the shrine where Khomeini is laid to rest, video and independent media put the crowd in the thousands. And the three-days of annual mourning ceremonies for the Islamic icon was reduced to a single day of government observance.
Another example is the May 31 Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla, in which commandos intercepted the convoy at seas and stormed the largest vessel, killing nine people aboard. The ships were carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza .... and the deadly raid sparked international condemnation.
Such an incident would have typically prompted the Iranian government to encourage its people to protest in favor of Palestinians. But that didn't happen this time, noted Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
They "did not encourage people to come to streets for demonstrations, obviously, because they cannot control people easily any more," Khalaji said.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/06/10/iran.election.anniversary/index.html?section=cnn_latest" rel="nofollow">http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/06/10/i...
Ex-colonists, indeed. humph.
Everyone has an angenda, Ali. Except some are about the reappearance of someone who doesn't exist and will never show and some are about trying to live a free, happy, safe, and fulfilling life.
You can make your own decisions, but you know what the opinion of the this forum is.
It only sounds racist because you made it so.
When i saw that, it made me think of the battle between Light (hope and freedom) and Dark (sadness, despair, violence).
Clearly you're the one still stuck in the past.